Take Profit on Trading Valterra Platinum (+30%): Strong Upside Follow-Through From 21-Week EMA Buy Range + Updated View

Research Notes December 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rdec2025

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REBOUNDING OFF THE 21-WEEK EMA WITH VERY DECENT UPSIDE FOLLOW-THROUGH.

Highlights: Valterra Platinum Limited (Combined, UPDATED View)

• Daily "Super-Heat" Signal: The Daily chart is flashing an extreme velocity warning. The Ultra Short Term (2-Day) momentum indicator has hit deep into the "Overbought" tier. This level of extension is statistically rare and typically precedes an immediate "cooling off" event—either a sharp volatility snap-back or a lateral pause to digest the gains.

• Secular Recovery Confirmation: The Monthly chart confirms a major change in the long-term character of the stock. The 14-Month Base Term trend has climbed back into the "Strong" tier, joining the "High Bullish" shorter-term monthly indicators. This signals that the multi-year correction is technically over, and a new secular bull phase is actively building.

• Weekly Trend Alignment: The Weekly chart serves as the perfect "bridge," showing a robust, healthy uptrend. All four weekly indicators are sloping upwards, with the Base Term trend sitting comfortably in the "Strong" zone. This suggests that while the Daily chart is manic, the intermediate trend structure is stable and supports further upside on dips.

• The "Air Pocket" Risk: Due to the vertical nature of the recent daily move (the melt-up), there is very little established technical support directly below the current price. If the daily momentum breaks, the price could swiftly retrace to the breakout zone around 110,000c without damaging the weekly uptrend.

• Best Action Timeline:

  • 3 to 5 days (1 week): Protective Measures. With Daily momentum in extreme "Overbought" territory, the risk of a sudden intraday flush is high. Tighten stops or book partial profits into this strength. New entries here are statistically dangerous.

  • 6 to 10 days (2 weeks): Stalk the Dip. Wait for the daily "Overbought" condition to reset (dropping towards "Neutral"). Look for stabilization near 115,000c - 118,000c.

  • 11 to 15 days (3 weeks): Accumulate Structure. If the weekly trend holds firm, use the post-dip environment to position for the next leg higher, targeting the major resistance at 140,000c.

  • 16 to 20 days (4 weeks): Trend Following. Trust the Monthly/Weekly structural alignment to drive the price towards long-term targets.

Bullish Scenario: Parabolic Extension: The "melt-up" defies gravity. Buyers ignore the overbought signals, driving the price vertically through 130,000c to test the major liquidity zone at 140,000c before any meaningful correction occurs.

Base Scenario: Bull Flag Consolidation: The extreme daily momentum forces a pause. The price consolidates sideways to slightly lower, churning between 118,000c and 125,000c. This allows the Daily momentum to cool from extreme levels down to a sustainable "Strong/Neutral" zone, resetting the engine for the next advance.

Bearish Scenario: Momentum Failure: The daily exhaustion triggers a sharp reversal. Price fails to hold the immediate support levels and flushes back down to test the 110,000c breakout base, shaking out late "FOMO" buyers.

Core Thesis Valterra Platinum is in the early stages of a powerful secular turnaround, evidenced by the strength in the Monthly and Weekly charts. However, the Daily chart is running "too hot, too fast." The thesis is structurally bullish but tactically defensive: the trend is your friend, but the specific entry point at these daily extremes is poor. The smart play is to wait for the inevitable volatility to provide a better risk/reward entry into the structural uptrend.

Comprehensive Summary The dashboard reveals a synchronized breakout across all timeframes, but with a warning flare on the Daily chart. The alignment of Weekly and Monthly Base trends in the "Strong" tier is the most significant takeaway, confirming that institutions are active. However, a Daily reading pinned at the top of the "Overbought" scale is a "ringing bell" for short-term exhaustion. Investors should look through the coming short-term volatility and focus on the bullish intermediate structure.

Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis (Weekly Focus)

Note: This block focuses on the Weekly timeframe as the "bridge" between the Daily noise and Monthly macro. Ultra Short Term Indication: HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM Slope: Sharply Upwards Short Term Indication: HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM Slope: Sharply Upwards Mid Term Indication: STRONG Slope: **Up

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Previous Post (28 October):🎥Watch: Valterra Platinum - Actionable Areas

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital