Valterra Platinum: Unwinding From Overbought (R785 to R700) + Next-Best Actionable Areas

Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june

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The price action model alerted us to overbought conditions with the short term reading warning traders NOT to chase/chase into the highs. Watch R660 to R675 as a potential short term re-entry range (subject to change as the price action and news flow develops!)

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Previous Post (Friday 23 May, Close of Trade):Trading Anglo American Platinum: Bullish Reversal For Long Term Traders

Current Price Action Model Reading:

A.I Interpretation of the above price action model:

The 14-day trend is explicitly labeled "Very Bullish," which is a strong indicator of upward momentum. Furthermore, the short-term expectation suggests "Very Strong Move Buyers In Control." While it cautions against chasing the price if it fails to hold the highs, the underlying sentiment points towards continued buying pressure in the near term.

Looking at the longer-term perspectives reinforces this bullish inclination. The medium-term outlook describes "Aggressive Buying," and the long-term anticipates a "Strong Attempt At A Bullish Reversal Following A Consolidation Phase." These descriptions suggest that despite potential short-term pullbacks, the broader expectation is for the price to move upwards.

In summary, the analysis for Anglo American Platinum presents a predominantly bullish outlook across short, medium, and long-term timeframes, supported by indicators of strong buying interest and expectations of a bullish reversal.

Previous Post (16 April)

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Previous Post (Sunday 12 January): Anglo American Platinum: Technical Improvement + Potential Change of Trend

Analyst's Price Action Model

Q: What is the current 7-Day Trend for Anglo American Platinum?

A: The 7-Day Trend is Strong.

Q: What is the current 14-Day Trend for Anglo American Platinum?

A: The 14-Day Trend is Bullish.

Q: What is the short-term price action reading for Anglo American Platinum?

A:  It is attempting to advance while in a bullish regime. Use the prior session close or 8-EMA as an accumulation zone.

Q: What is the medium-term price action reading for Anglo American Platinum?

A: It is attempting a bullish reversal following a consolidation phase.

Q: What is the long-term price action reading for Anglo American Platinum?

A: It is attempting a rebound following a downward trend. It may consolidate further before continuing higher.

Overall, the price action model suggests that Anglo American Platinum is currently in a bullish trend with a potential for further upside in the medium and potential for a bullish reversal in the long term.

AMS Daily Chart

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Previous Buy Idea: 10 June at R576 (now R200 higher at R776)

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Previous Post: Anglo American Platinum: Long Term Charts & New Lows - Wednesday, 11 September 2024

• PRE-MARKET

Ticker: AMS

I'm old enough to remember when Anglo American Platinum traded above R2100 per share.

Yes, there was a time when platinum shares were untouchable and when selling them was a no-no.

Fast forward close to 3 years later and no-one wants to touch them again (remember 2015 - that's a story for another day).

Here at Unum Capital we produce research that considers multiple time frames, from daily to weekly to monthly.

While other consider monthly charts irrelevant, for us it is a valuable tool in assess reward-to-risks, especially from a portfolio perspective.

Long-time subscribers of my research may recall Anglo American Platinum trading above R2100 per shares.

Some may also recall my view to use the multi-year highs to reduce long term portfolio exposure.

The time-stamped chart (Saturday 20 March 2021 for Monday 22 March) is shown below

Fast forward 3.5 years later and AMS has gone from R2115 at the time to R570 (it did trade as low as R558 in recent months).

After yesterday's market close, Anglo American announced that it would be conducting a bookbuild, offering 13 million AMS shares.

This will no doubt put pressure on the already depressed AMS share and is likely to see it trade at fresh multi-year lows.

Whilst we don't know what the extent of the selling will be, the R480 to R425 range is the previous swing lows which also coincides with the previous breakout.

There will another opportunity to buy, but for now we watch and watch until the dust settles.

For now, here's a sneak peek of my zoomed out (flash) view:

Lester Davids

Analyst: Unum Capital