Research Report: 17 - 21 August 2026
- Lester Davids
- 1 hour ago
- 7 min read
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NOTE: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes
Analysis prepared intraday/eod on Friday 14 August 2026.
Disseminated on Monday 17 August 2026.
The views reflect prices and price action at the time of writing.
Coverage:
Macro & Intermarket Overlay, S&P 500 Index, JSE Top 40 Index, Relative Rotation Graph, Relative Sector Breadth, Exxaro Resources, Naspers, Nedbank, Absa, MTN Group, Sasol, Sibanye Stillwater, Momentum Dashboard, Valterra Platinum, Spot Platinum, Spot Palladium, Sector Momentum: Neutral / Consolidating, Harmony Gold, Food Retail: Momentum, AngloGold Ashanti, Anglo American Plc, Glencore Plc, Vodacom Group, USDZAR, Jubilee Metals Group, JSE Gold Miners: Momentum, Technical Screen (Dips In Bull Trend), Market Explorer: Which Shares Continue To Act Well, Sector Momentum Gauges, Most Aggressive Buying, JSE Sector Relative Momentum Dashboard, JSE Internal Rotation, Chart Pack: Actionable Areas.
Macro & Intermarket Overlay
A dramatic shift in market leadership is underway. We are witnessing a violent short-term reversal in Consumer Discretionary, rocketing into High Bullish territory despite structural long-term weakness. Conversely, a severe systemic crash has hit Technology, plunging it into extreme bearish momentum across short and long timeframes. Defensive havens like Gold Miners and heavyweights like Banks maintain structural strength but have neutralized in the near term.
S&P 500 Index:
The reward-to-risk profile is heavily compromised for new long entries due to extreme multi-timeframe vertical extension. For a Buy/Long position, the reward-to-risk is Poor 🟥 because while buyers are completely in control of a very strong move across short, medium, and long-term horizons, the index is actively approaching overbought conditions. The model strictly dictates "Don't Chase," as price action may fail in its attempt to hold the highs. Conversely, for a Short/Sell position, the reward-to-risk is Moderate 🟨; a failure at current peak levels provides a defined tactical window to execute a mean-reversion short/sell, utilizing a natural pullback to the 8-EMA as a direct downside target.
JSE Top 40 Index: The index has continued to retreat in line with the previous price action model which warned against ultra short term buy/long positions. This unwind of price appears normal in relation to the previous overbought conditions and will allow the moving averages to catch up with price. For context the index is retreating toward it's flat 8-week and 21-week exponential moving averages which is likely to act as a short term support range. For ultra short term traders, this range, as well as the overshoot thereof may serve as an ultra short term buy re-entry range.
Relative Sector Breadth: A measure of market participation tracking the distribution of the 14 JSE Sectors (excluding the Benchmark index) across momentum states.
Exxaro Resources: Previously, my note highlighted R180 to R185 as a provisional buy re-entry range. Friday's market update by the company led institutional investors and traders to aggressively sell the share to the lowest levels this year which was below the buy re-entry range. As always, clients will adjust in real-time to accommodate the new information and price action developments.
Market Explorer:
Which Shares Continue To Act Well?
Results: APN, SHP, HAR, RBO, ANG, VAL
Naspers: Institutional selling pressure has seen the share once again trading near multi-month lows with the price moving back below it's 8 and 21-week exponential moving averages. The R780 to R785 level remains key to traders with a positive outlook as a break below that level is likely to accelerate selling pressure over the short to medium term. One scenario is that the price breaks below support and quickly reclaims the lows to produce a false breakdown followed by a bullish reversal. For now, sellers are in control.
Technical Screen: Deep dips in bull trends (2 matches):
Nedbank: We recommended the share as a buy re-entry at R262 with a 'double bottom' technical formation having been the structure at the time (12 June). In the last few days, the share reached a high of R300 and has since consolidated in a 'flag' formation. Zooming out, a large multi-month base is developing, one raises the potential for a breakout over the long term. From a valuation perspective, the share remains inexpensive.
Absa Group: Following it's short term rebound, the share is trading in an ultra short term consolidation range. The 75-day exponential moving average as well as the 200-day simple moving average are current acting as a resistance range. For now, the R235 level remains supply until candle structure improves (i.e. a big break above resistance is required for buyers to regain full control of the price action). Should the share retreat, the prior breakout level is unlikely to hold which means the share could let the long term breakout level near R200 is likely to be tested. Note: This share remain inexpensive from a valuation standpoint.
MTN Group: Above R220 (just under 3 weeks ago), we warned clients that the bearish engulfing candle may be the start of a bearish reversal. Since then the share has seen a major drop, with a ow of around R188. At current levels, the share is attempting to stabilize, with the formation of 3 'doji' candles. My assessment of the price action is that lower levels are likely before a tactical rebound takes place. We previously marked lower boundary of the range near ~R181 although this is likely to change as the news flow and price action develops (influenced by institutional investors and traders).
JSE Gold Miners: Momentum
Sasol: As mentioned last week, we are looking for a further pullback and break of trend line to trigger a new swing buy/long. At current levels the share remains in a consolidation/contraction phase with the moving averages clustered.
JSE Sector Relative Momentum Dashboard
The JSE sector momentum matrix highlights an aggressive rotation toward defensive and selective high-velocity plays, anchored by Consumer Staples and Platinum Miners, both of which have locked in a rare, multi-horizon Strong (#3) profile across Long, Medium, and Short-Term scales. Banks maintain a premier structural foundation, flashing Long-Term High Bullish Momentum (#2) / Approaching Overbought status alongside a Strong (#3) medium-term baseline. Meanwhile, a powerful near-term acceleration is visible in Consumer Discretionary, Hospitals, and Coal Miners, all printing Strong (#3) or High Bullish Momentum (#2) short-term marks. Conversely, absolute momentum breakdown is heavily concentrated in Technology, which remains deeply mired in a multi-horizon High Bearish Momentum (#6) / Approaching Oversold liquidation cycle, accompanied by structural weakness in Telecoms, Chemicals, and Luxury Goods.
Sibanye Stillwater: The reward-to-risk for new buy/long entries have diminished, with the price having completed it's expansionary move off the lows (from R33 to R44). The share, however, remains above it's rising 8-day exponential moving average, which is above the rising 21-day exponential moving average. The next-best probability buy range is on a pullback toward the rising 21-day EMA. Resistance/supply is in the 4600c to 4800c range.
Food Retail: Momentum
Valterra Platinum: The share is unwinding from an expansionary phase, having trade higher by as much as 33% from our buy trigger (via the price action model). If you are looking to buy at current levels, I'd suggest waiting for a further pullback toward the rising 21-day exponential moving average, which is roughly in line with the 75-day exponential moving average. Should we see a rally from current levels, the R1550 to R1590 range could attract sellers and open up a tactical opportunity for those looking to participate on the short (sell) side).
Spot Platinum (XPTUSD): Following it's short term recovery, the commodity has retreated only slightly while now consolidating on it's gradually rising 21-day exponential moving averages. We consider this a 'buy continuation' setup on a breakout above $1753, targeting $1850 over the short term.
Spot Palladium (XPDUSD): The commodity has pulled back and is nearing it's rising trend line which extends back to the lows of 24 June. We consider $1255 to $1280 as a minor support zone with the break of the short term downward trend line as a trigger for bullish continuation. Here, the upside target is near the underside of the flat 200-day simple moving average.
Change From Open (%): For The Week, Buying was Most Aggressive In The Following Shares:
AngloGold Ashanti (ANG): Following an expansionary move, the share is consolidating near it's multi-week highs with buyers remaining largely in control over the short term. The next best probability buy range is around the confluence of the 21-day exponential moving average and 75-day exponential moving average which also coincides with the gap around ~R1448. Traders can expect a downside overshoot of this support range before another (potential) tactical rebound. Next bets probability buy range is ~R1344 to ~R1471.
Sector Momentum: Neutral / Consolidating
Harmony Gold: Rallied 50% from our buy trigger in March, so it's no surprise to see the 3-day bearish reversal. That being said, the share remains above it's rising 8-day EMA, reflecting a bullish sequence over the medium term.
Anglo American Plc: the share has a developed a pattern not often seen: a bearish 'island reversal' that has seen the upside momentum being lost in the short term. The R900/R915 resistance level has become significant in recent months, reflecting the temporary control by sellers at that range. More broadly, there is no clear re-entry around current levels except the swing lows near R750 to R770. Via the weekly chart, the share has developed a bearish engulfing candle which further adds to the bearish development in the short term.
Glencore Plc: Looking for a re-test of the rising trend line followed by a potential rebound. Provisional support is around the R113 to R116 range which is where expect institutional buyers to step up and support our view.
Vodacom Group: The share failed to fined upside follow-through and has instead rolled over near the swing highs. The R140 to 145 range is where institutional buyers have historically stepped in, which may be a logical range for short term traders looking to take another shot at a buy/long. This is range is also in line with our previous buy/long idea (published 06 February and updated on 11 May) in which a 9.5% gain was seen.
US Dollar / South African Rand (USDZAR): The pair traded just below our R17.00 target (high of R16.97) before retreating toward the lower boundary of the multi-month range. the past week's price action can be described as a consolidation near the lows however, it is difficult to determine whether the a sharp bullish reversal will unfold or whether the pair will break to new lows (i.e. a strong ZAR). For now, this appears as NEUTRAL.
Sector Momentum Gauges
Jubilee Metals Group: The share has developed a higher low and is looking to reverse a bearish trend which saw the share trade from a high of 115c to it's recent low of 48c. The ~61c level is where major short term supply is located while a break above the range brings 74c and 82c into questions as upside targets.
JSE Internal Rotation
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Lester Davids
Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
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