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Woolworths: Momentum Analysis & Key Actionable Areas

  • Writer: Lester Davids
    Lester Davids
  • 3 hours ago
  • 3 min read

Research Notes November 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rnov2025

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WHL is currently experiencing a sharp upward move that has pushed momentum indicators into or near the overbought tiers, suggesting a temporary exhaustion of buying pressure is imminent. Current Price: 5,322c.


Core Thesis

The recent high-velocity buying has pushed the Ultra Short-Term momentum indicator into the OVERBOUGHT tier and the Short-Term indicator into the STRONG tier. This compressed buying pressure suggests an immediate, high-probability short-term consolidation or minor pullback (mean reversion) is imminent. The Mid-Term and Base Term trends, however, are strengthening within the Neutral/Strong tiers, suggesting the underlying momentum is turning bullish.

 

Comprehensive Summary

WHL's momentum profile confirms a sudden burst of buying, with the Ultra Short-Term momentum deep in the OVERBOUGHT tier and the Short-Term momentum in the STRONG tier. This flags immediate buying exhaustion and the strong probability of a minor technical pullback or consolidation. The Mid-Term and Base Term trends are providing a bullish foundation, with the Mid-Term in the STRONG tier and the Base Term in the NEUTRAL tier but sloping upwards. A successful consolidation at or above the current levels will set the stage for a continuation of the rally toward the upper end of the recent range.

 

Multi-Timeframe Momentum Analysis

The buying momentum is highly compressed in the short term, but structurally strengthening:

  • Ultra Short-Term Momentum: Currently at 86.01. This is in the HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT tier, indicating a climax of the immediate buying pressure. Sloping sideways to slightly downwards from the recent high.

  • Short-Term Momentum: Currently at 73.48. This is in the STRONG tier, reinforcing the strong short-term pressure. Sloping slightly downwards, suggesting a brief pause is likely.

  • Mid-Term Momentum: Currently at 57.09. This is in the NEUTRAL tier but approaching STRONG, and is sloping upwards, confirming the intermediate structural strength is returning.

  • Base Term Momentum (14-Period): Currently at 53.56. This is firmly in the NEUTRAL tier and is sloping sideways to slightly upwards, showing the primary long-term trend is stabilizing and attempting to turn positive.

 

Breakouts, Breakdowns, and Reversals (Recent Range Focus)

The market is showing a bullish recovery from prior lows, challenging resistance within its established range.

  • Immediate Reversal (Pullback/Consolidation): The extreme overbought readings in the shortest timeframes highly favor an an immediate short-term consolidation or minor pullback toward the nearest support approx. 5,100c to absorb the buying pressure.

  • Bullish Continuation Confirmation: A definitive close above the recent high 5,500c would signal a genuine short-term breakout, targeting the range highs around 5,900c.

  • Bearish Breakdown Reversal (Structural): A clear and sustained close below the major structural support level near 4,700c would confirm a Short-Term breakdown, invalidating the recent recovery.


Key Actionable Zones

The actionable zones focus on managing the short-term overbought condition and defining the continuation path. The Primary Ceiling/Resistance zone is located between 5,500c - 5,600c, which must be broken to confirm a continuation of the rally. Conversely, the Short-Term Buy Zone/Support between 5,100c - 5,300c is the anticipated area for a minor short-term pullback to stabilize and reload for the next move up. Should the stock fail to hold these near-term levels, the Base Term Structural Support at 4,700c is the major low of the recent consolidation structure and must hold to maintain the overall recovery thesis.


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Previous Post (20 October): 🎥Watch: Woolworths Reclaims 200-Day SMA + M/Term Bullish Reversal Plays Out


Previous Post (08 July): Woolworths: Distance Divergence Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index (200-Week SMA); Precursor To A Bullish Reversal


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Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

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