Trading Spot Silver: Zooming Out To The Weekly Chart

Research Notes November 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rnov2025

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High Five: 5 KEY POINTS TO NOTE FOR Silver (XAGUSD)

• Parabolic Rally Cooling: Silver has experienced an explosive vertical rally, recently tagging the $49 level. The current price action represents a necessary cooling phase after an unsustainable parabolic advance.

• Acute Momentum Crash: The fastest trend indicator (2-Week) has collapsed from extreme "Overbought" levels (>95) directly into the "Weak" tier (currently 29.29). This signals intense immediate profit-taking and a potential short-term local top.

• Structural Integrity Intact: Despite the sharp short-term pullback, the Base Term (14-Week) trend remains in "High Bullish Momentum" territory (above 70). The long-term bull market structure is not currently threatened by this consolidation.

• Bull Market Divergence: A classic bull market divergence is visible: fast indicators are oversold or neutral, while slow indicators remain highly bullish. This typically indicates a "buy the dip" environment rather than a major trend reversal.

• Volatility Warning: The extreme spread between the fastest and slowest momentum indicators indicates highly volatile trading conditions ahead as the market attempts to find equilibrium price after the recent surge.

The metal is in a consolidation phase following a massive breakout rally.

Core Thesis Silver is undergoing an acute routine correction within a powerful primary uptrend. The "Ultra-Volatile" short-term indicators have fully reset from historic highs, suggesting the most aggressive phase of selling may be nearing exhaustion, even as the longer-term trends remain robustly bullish.

Comprehensive Summary The momentum profile for Silver highlights a market digesting massive recent gains. The Ultra Short Term trend has officially broken down into the WEAK tier, confirming immediate bearish pressure. However, the Mid Term is holding STRONG, and firmly entrenched HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM in the Base Term suggests that large-scale institutional demand remains present. The market is likely searching for a higher low to serve as a launchpad for an eventual test of the psychological $50 level.

Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis The Ultra Short Term trend is WEAK and sloping Sharply Downwards, reflecting intense immediate profit-taking. The Short Term trend is NEUTRAL and sloping Sharply Downwards, indicating the pullback has neutralized the aggressive 3-week buying pressure. The Mid Term trend is STRONG and sloping Downwards, showing that the intermediate uptrend is cooling but remains technically solid. The Base Term trend is in HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM and is sloping Gently Downwards, confirming the core long-term bull trend is dominant despite recent volatility.

Breakouts, Breakdowns, and Reversals (Recent Range Focus) The asset is currently pulling back after failing to hold above $49. Bullish Continuation: A weekly close back above $49.10 is needed to signal the end of this correction and open the path to $50+. Bearish Reversal Risk: A sustained close below the $45.00 - $46.00 support zone could signal a deeper correction is needed to wash out late leverage.

Key Actionable Zones Immediate Resistance is at the recent cycle high of ~$49.10. Major Psychological Resistance is at $50.00. Immediate Support is likely to be found near previous consolidation tops around ~$46.00. Critical Structural Support for the medium-term trend is significantly lower, near the breakout zones of $35.00, though a test that deep is not currently indicated by the Base trend.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital