Trading Spot Silver: Analysis, Sentiment & Potential Actions

Research Notes November 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rnov2025

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Analysis of Silver (XAG/USD)

• The long-term market character since May 2025 is a strong uptrend, with the price making a series of higher highs and higher lows. [Bullish]

• The November low (around 47.50) successfully formed a "higher low" relative to the September low (around 43.00), which keeps the long-term bullish structure intact. [Bullish]

• The price is in a strong, V-shaped rally off the 47.50 low, with the current candle being a wide-range green bar, indicating strong immediate buying momentum. [Bullish]

• The price has just broken above the minor "lower high" from the first bounce attempt (around 50.50), which is a short-term sign of strength. [Bullish]

• The pullback from the October high (53.00) was extremely sharp and deep, indicating significant selling pressure or profit-taking entered the market. [Bearish]

• The price is currently in the "middle of the range" between the 47.50 support and the 53.00 resistance, which is not an ideal entry point. [Neutral]

• The overall price action has become very volatile and "whippy" (sharp down, sharp up), which signals market indecision and high-risk, two-sided trade. [Neutral]

• There is no confirmed topping pattern (like a Head and Shoulders), but the sharp sell-off serves as a major warning sign that volatility has increased. [Neutral]

• The next major obstacle is the all-time high resistance around 53.00. This is the ultimate target for bulls and where sellers will likely re-emerge. [Neutral]

• It is not yet clear if this strong bounce is a full resumption of the uptrend or a corrective rally (bear flag) before another test of the lows. [Neutral]

Sentiment Score

• Bullish: 4

• Neutral: 5

• Bearish: 1

Overall Score: 6/10 (The score is cautiously positive. The long-term bullish trend is still technically intact, but the recent extreme volatility and mid-range position warrant caution.)

💡 Potential Actions

• For Existing Longs: Consider holding the position, as the trend structure (higher low) is still valid. The 53.00 high is the target. A break below 47.50 would invalidate the bullish thesis.

• For New Longs (Conservative): Waiting is advised. The price is both volatile and in the middle of a range. A better entry would be on a confirmed, high-volume breakout above 53.00 or on a pullback that successfully retests and holds a clear support level.

• For New Longs (Aggressive): An aggressive trader could buy on the current momentum, targeting the 53.00 resistance. This is a high-risk trade due to the recent volatility.

• For Shorts: Shorting is not advised. This would be fighting a strong long-term uptrend and very strong immediate-term buying momentum.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital