Trading Spot Gold: Analysis of Daily Time Frame + Bull, Base & Bear Scenarios

Research Notes December 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rdec2025

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Highlights: Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar

• Bullish Consolidation: Gold is exhibiting a textbook "bullish consolidation" pattern. While the price has paused slightly just under the recent all-time highs of $4,236, it is refusing to give back meaningful ground. This stubbornness in the face of a momentum reset is a sign of underlying structural demand.

• The "Perfect Reset": The Ultra Short Term (2-Day) momentum indicator has dropped sharply from overbought levels back into the "Neutral" zone (currently 48.99). This is the ideal scenario for bulls: momentum is cooling off and reloading "fuel" without the price suffering a significant correction. It removes the immediate "froth" from the market.

• Structural Dominance: Despite the short-term pause, the structural trend remains robust. The Short Term (3-Day), Mid Term (7-Day), and Base Term (14-Day) trends are all firmly entrenched in the "Strong" tier (readings >60). This alignment confirms that the primary uptrend is healthy and well-supported by institutional flows.

• Room to Run: Unlike other assets that are currently flashing extreme "Overbought" warnings (RSI >95), Gold's Base Term RSI is sitting at a moderate 61.45. This implies that the metal is nowhere near exhaustion and has significant statistical headroom to extend the rally towards $4,300 before becoming structurally stretched.

• Best Action Timeline:

  • 3 to 5 days (1 week): Buy the Dip. Watch for the 2-Day RSI to hook back up from this neutral zone. Any intraday dip towards $4,180 - $4,190 is a high-probability entry for trend continuation.

  • 6 to 10 days (2 weeks): Breakout Watch. Expect a challenge of the $4,236 high. If cleared, add to positions.

  • 11 to 15 days (3 weeks): Trail Stops. As the trend extends towards $4,300, loosen stops to allow for volatility but protect the core position.

  • 16 to 20 days (4 weeks): Monitor 14-Day RSI. If the Base Term RSI hits 70+, begin to trim exposure.

🟢 Bullish Scenario: Immediate Resumption: The 2-Day momentum reset completes quickly. Buyers step in at $4,200, driving the price up to break $4,236. The fresh momentum pushes Gold directly to the $4,300 psychological extension level.

⚪ Base Scenario: High-Level Flag: The market chops sideways between $4,180 and $4,230 for a few days. This allows the faster moving averages to catch up to price, building a platform for the next leg higher later in the week.

🔴 Bearish Scenario: Structure Break: The consolidation fails, and price slips below the $4,150 support level. This drags the Short Term indicators out of the "Strong" tier, signaling a deeper correction is needed to test the breakout base at $4,100.

Core Thesis Gold is in a powerful, sustainable uptrend. The current daily price action represents a healthy pause that is resetting short-term overbought conditions. With the medium and long-term momentum indicators firmly in the "Strong" tier but not yet "Overbought," the path of least resistance remains decisively to the upside. The setup favors buying dips and anticipating a breakout to new highs.

Comprehensive Summary The momentum dashboard for Gold is cleaner and more sustainable than many other charts right now. The divergence between the falling Ultra Short Term RSI (neutralizing) and the stable price (holding highs) is a classic sign of hidden bullish strength. The market is effectively waiting for the "green light" from the short-term indicator to resume the main trend.

Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis (Daily Focus)

• Ultra Short Term Indication: NEUTRAL | Slope: Sharply Downwards (Resetting)

• Short Term Indication: STRONG | Slope: Flat/Down

• Mid Term Indication: STRONG | Slope: Flat

• Base Term Indication: STRONG | Slope: Flat/Upwards

Breakouts, Breakdowns, and Reversals (Recent Range Focus) Bullish Breakout: A daily close above $4,236 confirms the next leg of the rally. Bearish Reversion: A close below $4,150 would signal a short-term trend failure.

Key Actionable Zones Immediate Resistance: $4,231 - $4,236 (All-Time Highs). Pivot Support: $4,180 - $4,200 (Current Consolidation Floor). Critical Structural Support: $4,150 (Trend Defense). Trend Floor: 4,100 (Major Breakout Level).

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Previous Post (Thursday 27 November): Trading Spot Gold: Analysis of Weekly Time Frames + Price Action Model

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Previous Post (Sunday 23 November): Trading Spot Gold: Analysis of Weekly Time Frames + Price Action Model

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

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Trading Notes (Where Applicable):

READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS

For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned.

THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK

• It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following:

• The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames.

• Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks)

• Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position

• Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down)

• Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short.

• Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade)

• Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish)

• Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal

• Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend

• Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase)

• Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase)

• Whether a share lacks directional bias.

• The data set is available in real-time (on request)

• The readings are subject to change as the price action develops.