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Trading Spot Gold

  • Writer: Lester Davids
    Lester Davids
  • Jan 11
  • 3 min read

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026

Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital.

To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za


  • Primary Category: Secular Bullish Regime / Discovery Phase 🔵

  • Expected Path: Consolidation above $4,500 Support ⚪

  • Strategic Overlay: Buy Structural Dips / Trend Continuation 🟡


Highlights

  • Fractal Momentum Surge: A powerful momentum profile is sustained as gold enters 2026. Weekly indicators show a robust trend, with the price holding firmly above the 8-week and 21-week EMAs. While short-term oscillators on the Daily chart have cooled slightly from December extremes, they remain in a bullish "sweet spot," avoiding deep overbought territory for now.

  • Cyclical Turnaround: Gold has transitioned into a secular price-discovery phase after shattering the $3,000 threshold in early 2025. The metal is currently up approximately 68% year-over-year, driven by aggressive central bank purchases and a "National Unity" global safe-haven narrative. This indicates that the primary bullish cycle has significant structural runway remaining.

  • Daily Overheat Warning: In the Short Term (approx. 1 to 10 days), the metal is digesting its late-December rally to record highs of $4,550.79. While buyers remain in control, the market is oscillating near the $4,500 psychological magnet, where a minor pullback to the 8-day EMA may be required to reset momentum for the next impulsive leg.

  • The Weekly "Engine Room": The Weekly chart confirms a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows. All trend timeframes are sloping upward, with the 14-week Base Term maintaining a "Very Bullish" rating. This validates that the structural trend has successfully shifted into a high-conviction discovery phase.

  • Breakout at Resistance: Price action is currently challenging the major multi-year pivot zone at $4,500 - $4,550. A definitive close above this zone technically unlocks Fibonacci extension targets toward $5,000 for the 2026 outlook.



Best Action Timeline:

  • 3 to 5 days (1 week): Wait / Trim. Immediate upside momentum is pausing at psychological resistance. Expect choppy price action or a tactical pullback to $4,450 – $4,480 as the market awaits fresh inflation data.

  • 6 to 10 days (2 weeks): Accumulate. Once the daily "climax" state cools in the Medium Term (approx. 2 to 4 weeks), look for high-conviction entries near the 75-day EMA / 21-week EMA structural floors (currently near $4,385 - $4,420).

  • 11 to 15 days (3 weeks): Ride the Trend. If the $4,450 immediate floor holds, aligned weekly momentum should drive the next impulsive leg toward $4,600.

  • 16 to 20 days (4 weeks): Monitor Monthly Close. A monthly close above $4,510 confirms the secular discovery is active for the Long Term (approx. 5 to 8 weeks), targeting the $4,800 analyst handle.


Scenarios:

  • 🟢 Bullish Scenario: Blue Sky Extension: Price ignores technical overextension and blows through $4,550 resistance toward $4,700+, driven by worsening geopolitical tensions and sustained US dollar weakness.

  • ⚪ Base Scenario: Bull Flag Consolidation: The metal digests its massive annual gains, consolidating between $4,440 and $4,510 to allow moving averages to catch up while central bank demand remains a structural anchor.

  • 🔴 Bearish Scenario: Momentum Failure: A sharp rejection at recent highs triggers a deleveraging event back to the 50-week EMA / 200-day SMA base (near $3,666), signaling a macro reset before further upside.


Key Actionable Zones

  • Immediate Resistance: $4,510 – $4,550 (Current All-Time High / Discovery Zone).

  • Target 1: $4,800 – $5,000 (2026 Structural Target).

  • Pivot Support: $4,450 (Immediate Structural Floor).

  • Critical Structural Support: 75-day EMA / 21-week EMA (Medium-term "Buy Zone").

  • Trend Floor: 50-week EMA / 200-day SMA Base (Long-term Defense).


Core Thesis Spot Gold is in a robust "secular discovery" phase. While short-term indicators warn of a

consolidation need, the long-term structure remains exceptionally bullish, supported by structural central bank buying and debt-to-GDP concerns. Tactical patience is required to avoid chasing vertical extensions; wait for the structural dip to the $4,450 pivot, then trust the weekly trend.


Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

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