Trading Spot Gold

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026

Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital.

To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za

Closing Price: $4,987.55

1D Change: +1.04%

Multi-Frame Action: 🟢 Parabolic (D) 🟢 Breakout (W) 🟢 Vertical (M)

Technical Upside: Blue Sky Breakout. Testing major psychological resistance at $5,000.

Target: $5,000 – $5,250. Momentum Extension / Psychological Magnet.

Momentum Signal: "Lock-Out" Extreme. Vertical price action.

Risk / Invalidation: Close below $4,800 (Previous consolidation high).

Valuation Basket: Safe Haven / Monetary Debasement

Primary Driver: Central Bank accumulation, Global fiat instability & Safe Haven panic flows.

MARKET STRUCTURE & VOLUME VALIDATION

Volume Profile: The ascent is vertical and uncorrected, typical of a "panic buy" scenario where fiat currency is being aggressively dumped for hard assets. The move into the $4,900s has accelerated, indicating a squeeze on under-positioned funds before the $5,000 level.

Liquidity Zones: The $5,000 level is the "Magnet." It is a massive psychological barrier where significant profit-taking and option hedging activity is expected. Immediate support has formed at $4,800; a loss of this level would signal a temporary climax.

Divergences: None. The trend is hyper-extended but fully supported by momentum. The monthly candle (+15.38%) is one of the strongest on record, confirming a structural shift in valuation.

MOMENTUM PROFILE (WEEKLY)

Tactical Momentum: Extreme Overbought. In a parabolic run, traditional overbought signals are ignored as the asset reprices to a new paradigm.

Fast Weekly: Strong. The weekly chart shows a "Three White Soldiers" equivalent pattern, with consecutive strong closes near the highs.

Structural Trend: Bullish Breakout. The breakout above $4,400 has triggered a vacuum move higher.

Primary Trend: Bullish. Gold is in a secular bull market, currently in its most aggressive "markup" phase.

CORE THESIS Gold is effectively in a "melt-up" phase, driven by a loss of confidence in fiat stability and fear of missing out (FOMO) on the break of $5,000. The trend is vertical, creating a "Lock-Out" for conservative entries. While the $5,000 level will likely trigger volatility and a potential shake-out, the primary trend is overwhelmingly bullish. The strategy is to trail stops aggressively rather than fade the strength, as "top-picking" a parabolic move is a low-probability play.

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital