Outlook for Spot Platinum

Research Notes December 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rdec2025

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Core Thesis

Spot Platinum is currently in a state of High-Velocity Expansion, having recently surged to a 14-year high fueled by a massive structural supply deficit. However, the Ultra Short Term and Short Term momentum tiers have hit extreme ceilings, while the Base Term structural trend is only beginning to accelerate from the "Strong" tier into higher momentum zones. This creates a technical "overstretch" where the price has moved too far, too fast relative to the structural trend. The strategy is to fade the parabolic spike and wait for a mean-reversion move toward key EMA levels to secure long-term exposure at a more sustainable structural base.

Highlights

Categorization & Strategy

◦ Primary Category: Parabolic Breakout / Climax Phase ◦ Impending Transition: Technical Mean-Reversion / Structural Reset ◦ Strategic Overlay: Fade the immediate climax; Buy structural pullbacks to validate the new high base. Target 8-EMA or 21-EMA levels for re-entry.

◦ Breakout Velocity: The Ultra Short Term and Short Term indicators are pinned in the "Extreme Overbought" tier. This explosive surge reflects an institutional "supply squeeze" and urgent physical demand.

◦ Immediate Exhaustion: Momentum readings near their mathematical limits signal that the current vertical trajectory is unsustainable. A sharp "cooling-off" period is required to reset the fast-twitch indicators before any further upside can be entertained.

◦ Structural Gap: While the price has cleared decade-highs, the Base Term trend has not yet reached "overbought" exhaustion. This indicates that while the short-term is overheated, the primary cycle still has room to expand once the immediate "froth" is removed.

◦ Decade-High Resistance Cleared: Price has decisively breached the $1,700 barrier. This historical ceiling has now transitioned into a critical structural floor for the 2026 secular bull market.

Key Actionable Zones

◦ Immediate Resistance: $1,791 – $1,800 (14-Year Cycle High / Climax Target). ◦ Pivot Support: $1,705 (Immediate Breakout Support / 8-EMA). ◦ Critical Structural Support: $1,641 – $1,650 (Breakout Base / 21-EMA). ◦ Trend Floor: $1,524 (Major Secular Defense Line).

🟢 Bullish Scenario: Sustainable Extension: Price ignores the exhaustion signals, briefly consolidates above $1,750, and then charges toward $1,900+ as the physical deficit intensifies. This move finally drags the Base Term momentum into the "Extreme Overbought" tier.

⚪ Base Scenario: Mean-Reversion to EMA: The metal executes a necessary correction, pulling back to test the $1,705 pivot level. This allows the Ultra Short Term indicator to reset to "Neutral," forming a bull flag that validates the recent breakout.

🔴 Bearish Scenario: Climax Reversal: The 14-year high acts as a "blow-off top". Price rejects $1,791 violently, falling back below $1,650 on high volume, suggesting the breakout was premature and forcing a deeper retest of the $1,524 floor.

Best Action Timeline/Price Action Probability

◦ 1 to 10 days: 75% Probability of Pullback/Consolidation. The extreme overextension in the 2-day and 3-day momentum tiers demands an immediate pause to at least the $1,714 level to relieve pressure.

◦ 2 to 4 weeks: 65% Probability of Structural Validation. If the price successfully holds the $1,705 support through January, the Base Term momentum will solidify, confirming the structural transition to a higher price regime.

◦ 5 to 8 weeks: 60% Probability of Trend Resumption. Following a healthy reset, the primary deficit-driven trend is likely to target the $1,880 – $1,914 zone.

Momentum Profile (Daily Focus)

The momentum structure is historically overextended and flashing a "climax" warning:

◦ Ultra Short Term: Indication: EXTREME OVERBOUGHT | Slope: Flat/Pivoting

◦ Short Term: Indication: HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM | Slope: Flat

◦ Mid Term: Indication: STRONG | Slope: Upwards

◦ Base Term: Indication: STRONG | Slope: Upwards

Lester Davids

Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital