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Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (15 October 2025): 🎥Video: Breaking Out; Target 2800c Premium Research Content. To access the ticker, email lester@unum.co.za Thank you for your interest in our research. While the vast majority of our +1500 notes published year-to-date are complimentary, this premium analysis is provided exclusively for our active  trading clients. We believe our best insights should directly benefit those who entrust us with their trade execution. To access the current note and all future premium content, simply activate a trading relationship with us. If you are ready to align your trading with our research, contact us to open an account or move your existing service to Unum Capital by emailing  tradingdesk@unum.co.za      Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The slide below was published as part of our research report on Monday 28 October 2024. Over the 16 months, the share rallied significantly, reaching a high of R475 in January 2026 and R460 in February 2026. Slide: Monday, 28 October 2024 NPH Monthly Chart, Close of trade on Friday, 27 February 2026. Previous Post (Video): 25 September 2025. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Subsequently, a base was built in December and January with upside follow-through thus far this year. 'Weekend markets' reflect Brent Crude oil being substantially higher on the back of geopolitical escalation. Previous Post (19 November 2025): Brent Crude Oil: Attempting A Bullish Reversal Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za All commentary below is based on the MONTHLY CHART/Timeframes. Breadth & Participation 📊 Bank Uniformity:  Every major banking institution (CPI, FSR, NED, SBK, ABG) is showing extreme 12-month gains, but their Ultra Short Term and Short Term momentum indicators are mathematically pinned at maximum exhaustion levels, signaling a sector-wide macro pause is imminent. 🏦 Retail Divergence:  A stark breadth split exists on the monthly horizon; High-End/Apparel (TRU, WHL) holds stable base trends, while Mass Market/Grocery (SPP, PIK) is in deep, multi-month capitulation, confirming a fractured "Two-Speed Consumer." 🛍️ Resource Overheat:  The Gold and PGM complex (ANG, PAN, GFI, IMP, SSW) is flashing severe "Overbought" and "Thrust" warnings across all four timeframes simultaneously, showing breadth in the resource sector is too hot to sustain organically. ⛏️ Property Breadth:  The REIT and Property sector (FFB, NRP, LTE) is showing unusually healthy, sustainable breadth, characterized by steady Base Term alignment without the erratic, volatile thrusts seen in other sectors. 🏢 Tech Narrowness:  The Technology rally is dangerously narrow; massive divergence exists between high-flying Fintech/Hardware (WVR, PWR) and Lagging heavyweights (NPN, PRX, BYI), forcing strict stock picking over blanket sector exposure. 📉 Penny Speculation:  Breadth has expanded into low-liquidity, high-volatility names (OAO) showing sudden, aggressive Ultra Short Term thrusts against weak Base Term trends—a classic late-cycle breadth warning. 🎰 Defensive Rotations:  Breadth is aggressively rotating out of traditional Defensives; Food Producers (TBS, RCL, SPP) are collectively printing massive negative 12-month returns and deeply broken macro structures. 🍞 Industrial Spine:  Construction and heavy industry breadth is remarkably solid; WBO, RBX, and HDC are exhibiting strong, sequential multi-timeframe alignment, confirming a broad-based infrastructure bid under the radar. 🏗️ Factor Dynamics (Quality, Value, Momentum) ⚙️ Momentum Parabola:  The "Parabolic" momentum factor is dominating Gold (ANG +256% 1Y, PAN +358% 1Y), where price has completely disconnected from historical base values—a clear macro signal to trail stops tightly, not chase. 🚀 Deep Value Floor:  The "Value" factor is flashing strongest in Paper and Retail (MNP, SAP, PIK, SPP), where Ultra Short Term and Short Term indicators have flatlined near absolute zero, indicating mathematical surrender. 🧻 Quality Compounders:  "Low Volatility" Quality stocks (AVI, KST, NY1) are generating the safest continuation signals, maintaining healthy mid-to-base term structures while avoiding the erratic thrust warnings of the miners. 🐢 Yield Protection:  The "Yield" factor is successfully defending the macro floor in Telecoms (VOD, MTN), keeping their long-term baselines intact despite shorter-term noise and volatility. 💰 Growth Scarcity:  True "Growth" factors are scarce on the monthly charts; Mid-Cap Tech (DTC) and select software names are struggling to catch sustained bids, leading to structural base breakdowns. 💎 High Beta Trap:  The "High Beta" factor in Platinum (SSW +360% 1Y, IMP +283% 1Y) has triggered intense macro "Too Fast" warnings; the velocity of the move makes them statistically dangerous for new trend followers right now. 🏎️ Momentum Ignition:  A new factor emergence is visible in specialized mid-caps (AFE, LSK), where fresh Ultra Short Term breakouts are pulling the Base Term out of long consolidations. 🧪 Small Cap Drag:  The "Size" factor is severely punishing micro-caps (TSG, CAA), which show completely fragmented monthly momentum profiles and suffer from liquidity-driven "Thin Trade" drift. 🐜 Institutional Flows & Liquidity 🌊 Blue Chip Anchor:  Heavy institutional contrarian flows are evident in NPN and PRX; their monthly macro indicators are in deep capitulation, suggesting Smart Money is building hidden bases at multi-year lows. 🐳 Crowded Exits:  The relentless breakdown in Paper (SAP, MNP) confirms active, long-term institutional distribution (selling) across multiple quarters, with no Base Term support holding. 🚪 Dividend Chasing:  Flows are aggressively targeting "Yield Safe" Financials (ABG, SBK), pushing them into extended premium zones and creating a crowded institutional income-fund trade. 💸 China Proxy Flows:  The structural strength in Diversified Miners (AGL, BHG) confirms flows are treating these heavily as global/China macroeconomic proxies, completely overriding local operational noise. 🇨🇳 Speculative Froth:  Erratic monthly spikes in alt-tech and speculative shells (ISO, OAO) suggest retail hot money is dominating the order book, creating massive liquidity air pockets and binary risks. 🌬️ Insurer Rotation:  Institutional flows are clearly rotating into Insurers (OMU, SLM, MTM) as a "Catch-up" trade, lifting their Mid Term and Base Term indicators steadily out of previous weakness. ☂️ Defensive Exit:  The deeply negative momentum profiles for TBS and RCL imply institutional flows have structurally abandoned traditional food safety names to chase higher beta returns in financials and resources. 🏃 ZAR Hedge Bid:  The resilient Base Term structures in CFR and select offshore earners confirms long-term capital flows are continuing to prioritize Hard Currency macro exposure. 💱 Positioning (Crowded vs. Contrarian) 🧘 Consensus Long:  The mathematically exhausted momentum profiles across the Banking index (CPI, FSR) show this is the most crowded, consensus macro long on the board; the "easy money" has been made. 🐂 Consensus Short:  The deep capitulation readings in SPP and PIK imply the market is massively and uniformly short these names, creating the perfect structural setup for a violent short-squeeze. 🍋 Hated Rally:  NPN and PRX are printing terminal "Surrender" metrics on the monthly timeframe, making them the most "Hated" (and therefore highest asymmetric potential) contrarian longs available. 🤬 Forgotten Middle:  Mid-cap industrials like HDC, GND, and AFT show beautiful, steady Base Term accumulation but lack retail hype, suggesting they are under-positioned and fundamentally ignored. 🤷 Fear Trade Peak:  The vertical velocity of the Gold/PGM run suggests fear positioning is at maximum saturation; historically, when Ultra Short Term momentum reaches these extremes on a monthly chart, a severe cool-off follows. 😱 Greed Trade Peak:  The sheer parabolic extension in CPI shows pure greed positioning; the asset is priced for absolute perfection with zero margin of safety for latecomers. 🤑 Undervalued Recovery:  Telecoms (MTN) are positioned perfectly as macro "Improving" plays, where historical positioning is light but the Mid Term trend is actively crossing bullish. 🌤️ Trap Positioning:  Stocks like BYI and KRO look deceptively cheap to retail dip-buyers, but their Base Term momentum is still actively sliding—a classic value trap positioning error. 🪤 Technical Internals & Structure 🏗️ Phase Imbalance:  The internal monthly data reveals a massive structural imbalance: Financials and Resources are heavily skewed into the Leading phase, while Consumer Staples and Retail are overwhelmingly Lagging—a major inter-market rotation warning. ⚖️ Mean Reversion Tension:  The mathematical gap between the "Leading" Gold miners (max overbought across all 4 tiers) and the "Lagging" Retailers (max oversold) is at a historic extreme, strongly favoring a violent pairs-trade snap-back. 📏 Support Failure:  SHP and TBS are flashing rare Base Term breakdowns, structurally damaging the long-term internal health of the broader Consumer Defensive sector. 🏚️ Breakout Confirmation:  Asset Managers (KST, SBP) are rare examples of perfectly stacked momentum (Ultra > Short > Mid > Base), showing new, confirmed structural uptrends that are built to last. 📈 Volume Climax:  The total mathematical surrender in SAP and MNP's Ultra Short Term indicators typically coincides with macro volume capitulation, marking the end of the structural bear phase. 🔊 Stop-Hunt Zones:  The vertical, unchecked ascents in VAL and NPH create structural vacuums below the current price; these zones are where stop-losses are clustered, heavily inviting violent volatility flushes. 🎯 Correlation Lock:  The uniform exhaustion signals across the entire Banking sector show high algorithmic correlation; they are moving as a monolithic index flow rather than trading on individual stock merit. 🤖 Execution Discipline:  The monthly internal data screams caution; with dozens of heavyweights mathematically overextended on the macro timeframe, broad index-level returns will likely stall, demanding surgical, sniper-like execution and strict stock-picking. 🚫 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (31 August 2025): Are You Positioned For The Move In Energy? Previous Post (Friday, 22 August): 🎥Watch: iShares Global Energy ETF (IXC) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za THE DATA IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE NEWS FLOW AND PRICE ACTION DEVELOPS. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Gold traded into our buy re-entry range (Monday, 02 February) and over the month rebounded +19% or +$800. Previous Post (Sunday 01 February 2026) Trading Spot Gold: Buy Re-Entry Range Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range  high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range  may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital