Search this site

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za At current levels, the share is trading 46% below it's 200-week Simple Moving Average, relative to the JSE Top 40 Index. During previous cycles, readings in this % distance range coincided with a cycle low and buy for the share. The distance is extended and valuation is compelling to consider for a portfolio buy idea. Previous Post (20 November 2025): Truworths: Running +15.7%. Short Term Traders Consider Taking Partial or Full Profits Previous Post (04 November): Truworths: Lower Levels Expected, But Reward-to-Risk Becoming Attractive For A Buy Long Position We discussed the sector (clothing retailers) in September 2024, highlighting the unappealing buy/long reward-to-risk. Truworths is down From R109 to R50 with real-time readings on the price action model highlighting an appealing buy/long reward-to-risk on all three time frames. We are expecting lower levels in the short term with a base YET to be built, however, with potential for a bullish reversal. Patience will be required. Previous Post ( Monday, 23 September 2024) : Retailers Have Rallied. Here's What The Data Says - Pre-Market A global rate cutting cycle including action from the SARB has support strong moves in retail shares. In addition, early positive signs in the local economy has boosted confidence which has led to analyst upgrades. This is especially relevant in the Consumer Discretionary sector which may feel the effect of improved consumer spend. While the fundamentals are positive and, after a strong rally, the short term reward-to-risk does not appear appealing for new buy/long trades. For Consumer Discretionary shares, this is what the data says: MRP Mr. Price TFG Foschini TRU Truworths Clients of Unum Capital have had access to research which has flagged opportunities across in selected names. TRU, discussed at R56, has nearly doubled in price over 14 months. Truworths - as discussed in the report (Active Trading Plan, Monday 03 July 2023) Then at R56 - now nearly R110. Not a client yet? Get in touch today. ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that   are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which   is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis for any tradeable instrument across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. The tool helps to determine and shed light on the some of the following: Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position? Whether a share is weak or if aggressive buying is underway Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Impala Platinum: Long term, multi-year holders of the share could consider reducing their portfolio positions as the price starts to enter a medium and long term overbought conditions. To further elaborate, reducing positions by say, 30%, while holding the remaining with a trailing stop. Long term momentum is bullish with the share breaking above multi-year resistance. A re-test of the prior multi-year highs at R350 (reached in 2008) is not out of the question. Analyst's price Action Model Long time clients of Unum Capital would recall IMP being a feature of our research in 2018, when the price traded at 1926c. At the time (18 September 2018), we presented a MONTHLY CHART view considering the price at the time as a multi-year turning point. Since then the share has returned 16x. Impala Platinum Monthly Chart (Before, 18 September 2018) Impala Platinum Monthly Chart (After) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Target Exceeded Previous Post (11 July) Strong candle structure below multi-month highs, breakout pending. Long term target = $159.00 Stop-loss = a weekly close below $118.00 Last close = $134.21 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (11 July 2025) Global Idea: ArcelorMittal (ADR); Strong Price Action Within Weekly Consolidation Last Price: $34.41 Target: $53.00 Stop-loss: $25.12 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za If you are looking for a gentle rotation, this market isn’t it. Between January 9 and January 13, the JSE underwent a violent structural shift. What began as a mixed board has rapidly bifurcated into a "barbell" market, where liquidity is fleeing the center and aggressively choosing sides. We have witnessed a 250% increase in short-term bearish signals in just two sessions, creating a "Red Wave" that has swept through SA Inc—specifically Banks, Insurers, and Retailers. For the active trader, this extreme polarization fundamentally alters the Reward to Risk  profile of the market. The "safe" middle ground has become the most dangerous place to be. The current data suggests that the optimal Reward to Risk is now found only at the extremes: either aligning with the high-velocity breakout momentum in Precious Metals (Gold and Platinum), or stalking the capitulation in deeply oversold sectors like Paper & Pulp. Trying to nurse positions in the deteriorating "grey zone"—like Telecoms or Hospitals—offers little upside for the risk of further stagnation. In this week’s report, we break down this divergence, identifying where the momentum is real, where the capitulation is nearing a math-based floor, and how to position yourself when the indices are telling two completely different stories. This deep dive isolates specific structural shifts, velocity of moves, and hidden divergences in the JSE sectors. I. Market Breadth & Sentiment Structure 1. The "Red Wave" Contagion (Short-Term Collapse) The most striking feature is the contagion speed in the short term. On Jan 9, only 2 sectors were "Weak" in the short term. By Jan 13, this jumped to 7 sectors. This 250% increase in bearish signals confirms a high-velocity liquidation event rather than a gentle rotation. 2. Extreme Polarization (The "Barbell" Effect) The market has hollowed out. Most sectors are now either "High Bullish" (Gold) or "High Bearish/Weak" (Banks, Retailers). The lack of "Neutral" readings suggests liquidity is fleeing the middle ground and is actively choosing sides—defensive longs or aggressive shorts. 3. "Oversold" Convergence Warning We are seeing a convergence of "Approaching Oversold" signals across different timeframes for multiple sectors (Tech, Banks, Insurers, Paper). When multiple heavyweights hit this signal simultaneously, it often precedes a violent snap-back rally or a "clearing trade" where weak hands are finally flushed out. 4. The Disappearance of "Strong" Signals On Jan 9, six sectors had a "Strong" short-term rating. By Jan 13, that number halved. The "Strong" designation is now an exclusive club (Gold, Platinum, Consumer Staples, Chemicals), making stock selection significantly harder than it was just four days ago. 5. Long-Term Trend Stubbornness Despite the short-term volatility, the "Long Term" column remains largely static. Most sectors (Miners, Insurers, Consumer Disc.) are still "Weak" or "Neutral." This implies the current moves are corrections within a downtrend rather than a trend reversal—the primary trend remains bearish for SA Inc. II. Sector Specifics: The Winners (Defensive & Commodities) 6. Gold Miners: The Perfect Storm Gold Miners achieved the "Holy Grail" of technical signals on Jan 13: Green across the board (Bullish/Strong/Bullish). This triple-alignment indicates institutional accumulation. The shift from "Neutral" to "High Bullish" in just two sessions suggests aggressive chasing of the bid. 7. Platinum’s Resilience Platinum Miners held their ground better than almost anything else. While others collapsed, Platinum maintained "Strong" (Long Term) and "High Bullish" (Medium Term). This confirms it as a leader, likely driven by PGM basket price strength independent of general equity sentiment. 8. Consumer Staples: The Safe Harbor Staples defied the sell-off. While Discretionary stocks collapsed, Staples held "Neutral" on the Long/Medium term and remained "Strong" on the short term. This divergence clearly highlights investors hiding in defensive, non-cyclical names (food retailers vs. apparel). 9. Coal Miners: Losing Momentum Coal Miners showed a subtle but important degradation. They lost their "Strong" rating in the Medium Term (dropping to "Neutral") and lost the "High Bullish" rating in the Short Term. The energy trade is cooling off relative to precious metals. 10. Chemicals: The Volatility Hedge? Chemicals are behaving strangely. Despite a "High Bearish" long-term signal, they are consistently "Strong" in the short term. This might be idiosyncratic (specific company news within the sector) rather than a sector-wide theme, acting as a counter-correlation trade. III. Sector Specifics: The Losers (Financials & Cyclicals) 11. Banks: The Momentum Crash The degradation in Banks is severe. Dropping from "Neutral" across the board (Jan 9) to "High Bearish Momentum" (Jan 13) represents a "volatility expansion" to the downside. This is often the signal that breaks the back of the broader Top 40 index. 12. Insurers Follow the Leader Insurers lagged Banks slightly but have now synchronized to the downside ("Weak" across all timeframes). The correlation between Banks and Insurers hitting lows together confirms this is a macro-driven exit from SA Financials (likely currency or bond yield related). 13. Retail (Consumer Disc.) Capitulation Consumer Discretionary is the weakest link. It is the only sector with "High Bearish Momentum" across two timeframes (Long and Medium). The short-term drop to "Weak" confirms there are no buyers stepping in even at these lower levels. 14. Luxury Goods: The False Dawn On Jan 9, Luxury Goods looked like they were stabilizing (Neutral). That failed completely by Jan 13 (Weak). This "bull trap" likely caught traders who thought the luxury sector (typically Rand-hedge sensitive) would protect them. 15. Telecoms: A Quiet Death Telecoms didn't crash; they just faded. They went from "Strong" (Medium/Short) on Jan 9 to "Neutral" and "Weak" on Jan 13. This low-volatility bleed is dangerous because it traps passive holders who don't see a panic signal until it's too late. IV. Factor & Structural Insights 16. The "SA Inc" vs. "Rand Hedge" Split A clear fracture has opened up. "SA Inc" sectors (Banks, Retail, Insurers, Hospitals, Telecoms) are all red/weak. "Rand Hedge" / Global sectors (Gold, Platinum) are green/strong. This data suggests a specific macro trade: Short SA / Long Commodities. 17. Paper & Pulp: The Contrarian Setup Paper & Pulp is flashing the only pure "Oversold" signal (Long Term) on the entire board. This is rare. While momentum is bearish, this sector is mathematically the most stretched to the downside, making it the #1 candidate for a "dead cat bounce." 18. Hospitals: Stuck in Limbo Hospitals are irrelevant right now. They shifted from "Strong" short-term to "Neutral." They are neither a crash risk nor a momentum leader. In a polarized market, capital ignores these "grey" sectors, leading to low volume and chopping range-bound action. 19. Technology: The Momentum Trap Tech is showing "High Bearish Momentum" in the medium term. Often traders buy tech dips early, but this signal suggests the selling has velocity. The "Approaching Oversold" tag warns that while a bounce is due, catching the falling knife is dangerous. 20. General Miners Divergence The gap between "Miners" (Neutral/Weak) and "Gold/Platinum" (Strong/Bullish) is critical. You cannot just "buy resources." You must be specific. The diversified miners are dragging, likely due to weakness in iron ore or base metals, masking the strength in precious metals. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za A strong acceleration into R130 is likely to see the share break above resistance. For medium term traders, a measured move targets R175 to R180. Existing clients would be aware that we discussed the share just under 12 months ago (10 February 2025), zooming out to highlighting the multi-year support zone at R70. Before: Original Chart With Price Action Model (10 February 2025) Previous Post (Pre-Market, Wednesday 14 January): Take Profit: Sasol Running +12% (Short Term Traders Only) Short Term Traders, Take Profit. Medium and Long Term Traders, Hold For A Further Re-Rating. Previous Post (05 December): Strategy Alert: Sasol This note is being published pre-market (Friday, 05 December) therefore there is no price action to provide confirmation. We do however, want to remain mindful of the potential for a 'PIERCING LINE (BULLISH REVERSAL)' TECHNICAL FORMATION. The pivot level for that is yesterday's low of 10409c. If the share remains below the pivot level, that would mean that there is no confirmation/trigger for the setup, yet. Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za In less than 15 months, Northam Platinum has rallied from R145 to above R400 today. The move is reflective of our view via a report on Monday, 28 October in which we specifically highlighted the MONTHLY CANDLE that reflected strong buy and the start of a longer term move. As noted as the time, the move was 'FAR FROM OVER'. Today, the share traded over R400 - it's highest level ever. Well done to clients who have participated in this massive Precious Metals bull run. The original slide is shown below: Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Short Term Traders, Take Profit. Medium and Long Term Traders, Hold For A Further Re-Rating. Previous Post (05 December): Strategy Alert: Sasol This note is being published pre-market (Friday, 05 December) therefore there is no price action to provide confirmation. We do however, want to remain mindful of the potential for a 'PIERCING LINE (BULLISH REVERSAL)' TECHNICAL FORMATION. The pivot level for that is yesterday's low of 10409c. If the share remains below the pivot level, that would mean that there is no confirmation/trigger for the setup, yet. Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Closing Price:  $2,393.83 1W Change:  +6.46% Multi-Frame Action:  🟢 Parabolic (D) 🟢 Breakout (W) 🟢 Blue Sky (M) Technical Upside:  Blue Sky. Major historical resistance at ~$2,300 has been cleared. Target:  $2,600 – $2,750 (~10-15%). Psychological Extension. Momentum Signal:  Extreme Momentum (Monthly RSI > 99) Risk / Invalidation:  Close below $2,250 (Breakout Retest) Valuation Basket:  Green Energy / Industrial Deficit Primary Driver:  Hydrogen economy demand & catch-up trade vs. Gold. MARKET STRUCTURE & VOLUME VALIDATION Volume Profile:  The monthly volume (916K) confirms a massive secular breakout. After a 15-year consolidation phase, price has violently cleared the 2008 all-time highs, signaling a regime change from accumulation to mark-up. Liquidity Zones:  The $2,250 – $2,300  zone (previous multi-decade resistance) is now the critical support floor. As long as price holds above this level, the structure remains in "Blue Sky" discovery mode. The next psychological magnet is $2,500 . Divergences:   None.  The Monthly RSI is pinned at 99.03 , an extremely rare "lock-out" signal. While technically "overbought," in the context of a secular breakout, this indicates an overwhelming demand imbalance (short squeeze) rather than a sell signal. RELATIVE STRENGTH (SECTOR & INDEX) vs. Gold:   Outperformer.  Platinum is aggressively playing catch-up to Gold. The Gold/Platinum ratio is compressing rapidly as capital rotates into the previously undervalued industrial metal. vs. Industrial Metals:   Leader.  Platinum is decoupling from the broader industrial complex, driven by its dual status as a monetary asset and a critical green energy input. Spot Platinum: Monthly Chart By the close of trade on Friday, 26 December, Platinum was higher by 137% from the long term view published on 13 February 2025. Previous Post (13 February 2025): Platinum: Zooming Out Weekly Chart - Constructive - Potential Change of Trend Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Gold is current higher by 19% from our buy re-entry - marked by the blue shaded area. Closing Price:  $4,633 1W Change:  +2.78% Multi-Frame Action:  🟢 Parabolic (D) 🟢 Breakout (W) 🟢 Blue Sky (M) Technical Upside:  Blue Sky. Psychological targets at $4,750 / $5,000. Target:  $4,800 – $5,000 (~8%). Fibonacci Extension. Momentum Signal:  Extreme Momentum (Daily RSI > 91, Monthly > 99) Risk / Invalidation:  Close below $4,400 (Previous Resistance) Valuation Basket:  Safe Haven / Currency Debasement Hedge Primary Driver:  Fed Independence Crisis & Sovereign Accumulation. MARKET STRUCTURE & VOLUME VALIDATION Volume Profile:  The move is supported by steady volume (2.47M weekly), confirming institutional participation rather than a retail-only frenzy. The breakout above the $4,550 shelf has triggered a "price discovery" phase where previous resistance logic no longer applies. Liquidity Zones:  The $4,550 – $4,600 zone is now the immediate support floor (breakout point). A hold above this level keeps the "Blue Sky" setup intact. The next major liquidity magnet is the $5,000 psychological level (100% Fib extension). Divergences:  None. The Daily RSI (91.62) and Monthly RSI (99.95) are in "Extreme" territory, but in a parabolic discovery phase, this signals trend capitulation (to the upside) rather than exhaustion. Bears have been fully washed out. RELATIVE STRENGTH (SECTOR & INDEX) vs. US Dollar:  Decoupled. Gold is rising alongside  or independent of the Dollar, driven by systemic trust issues (Fed crisis) rather than standard forex correlations. vs. Commodities:  Leader. Gold (and Silver) are vastly outperforming the broader commodity complex, acting as monetary assets rather than industrial inputs. Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range  high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range  may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za JSE Sector Comparative Analysis Period:  09 Jan 2026 vs. 13 Jan 2026 Gold Miners:  🟢 Awakening.  The most significant positive shift. Medium Term moved from "Neutral" to "Strong," and Short Term exploded from "Neutral" to "High Bullish Momentum." Capital is flooding into Gold. Platinum Miners:  🟢 Acceleration.  Short Term momentum reignited (Neutral → Strong). Medium Term is now "Overbought," reflecting the intensity of the buying pressure. Banks:  🔴 Collapse.  A disaster for Financials. Short Term momentum crashed from "Neutral" to "High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold." This indicates a sudden, high-volume liquidation event. Insurers:  🔴 Contagion.  Followed Banks off the cliff. Short Term momentum dropped to "High Bearish Momentum," confirming broad weakness in the financial complex. Coal Miners:  🔴 Blow-Off Top.  The parabolic "High Bullish" signal from Jan 9 evaporated completely, dropping back to "Neutral." The trade was crowded and flushed out immediately. Telecoms:  🔴 Failure.  The defensive breakout failed. Short Term momentum swung from "Strong" to "Weak." Miners (Div):  🟡 Cooling.  Momentum faded from "Strong" (MT/ST) back to "Neutral." The sector is taking a breather while Gold/Platinum take the lead. Consumer Staples:  ⚪ Steady.  One of the few sectors to hold its ground. Retained "Strong" Short Term momentum, validating its role as a safe haven. Chemicals:  ⚪ Resilient.  Surprisingly held its "Strong" Short Term rating despite the broader market sell-off, confirming genuine value interest. Consumer Disc.:  🔴 Breakdown.  Short Term support failed (Neutral → Weak), re-aligning with the "High Bearish" longer-term trend. Paper & Pulp:  🔴 Deterioration.  Medium Term worsened from "Weak" to "High Bearish Momentum." The falling knife is accelerating. Luxury Goods:  🔴 Weakness.  Deteriorated from "Neutral" (MT/ST) to "Weak" across the board. Hospitals:  🟡 Faded.  Short Term momentum dropped from "Strong" to "Neutral." The speculative bid dried up. Technology:  ⚪ Unchanged.  Remains structurally weak with "High Bearish Momentum" in the Medium Term. Key Technical Shifts Explained 1. The "Golden Pivot": On Jan 9, Gold was quiet. By Jan 13, it is the hottest sector. This suggests a massive "Risk-Off" macro pivot where investors are dumping general equities (especially Financials) to hide in hard assets. The synchronization of Platinum and Gold strength confirms a "Precious Metals Super-Cycle" bid. 2. The Liquidation of SA Inc (Banks/Insurers): The shift in Banks from "Neutral" to "High Bearish" in two days is rare and violent. It implies that foreign capital may be exiting the South African financial system aggressively. This is not a "cooling off"—it is a crash in sentiment. 3. The "Fake-Out" (Coal & Telecoms): Traders who chased the "High Bullish" Coal signal or the "Strong" Telecoms signal on Jan 9 were trapped. Both reversals highlight the current volatility of the market; trends that aren't backed by structural flows (like Gold/Platinum) are fragile and prone to rapid reversals. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za JSE Sector Strategic Rankings Report 1. Executive Summary: The Verdict Precious Metals Go Vertical; Financials & Recent Winners Collapse The market has undergone a violent rotation in just two trading sessions. The "Precious Metals" complex has completely decoupled from the rest of the market to become the sole source of bullish momentum. Gold Miners  have exploded from a consolidation phase into "High Bullish Momentum," joining Platinum Miners  at the top of the leaderboard. Conversely, the rest of the market is a sea of red. The "Bank Heist" has turned into a rout: Banks  and Insurers  have crashed into "High Bearish Momentum" in the short term, signaling aggressive institutional liquidation. Furthermore, last week's "hot trades"— Coal Miners  and Telecoms —have failed spectacularly, surrendering all their recent momentum gains to drop back to Neutral or Weak. The only survivor outside of precious metals is Chemicals  and Consumer Staples , which held their ground while high-beta sectors were punished. 2. Strategic Asset Allocation View Suggested portfolio weighting relative to the JSE Top 40 Index based on current technical posture. 🟢 Overweight (Accumulate / Ride Trend) Gold Miners:   The New King.  Short Term momentum rocketed to "High Bullish." The dormant giant has woken up. Platinum Miners:  Trend acceleration continues. Medium Term is "Overbought," but the trend is undeniable. Chemicals:   High Conviction Spec.  The only "Deep Value" play that survived the sell-off. Retains "Strong" Short Term signal. 🟡 Neutral (Hold / Defensive) Consumer Staples:  The last line of defense. Retains "Strong" Short Term momentum. Miners (Diversified):  Cooled off. Dropped from "Double Strong" to "Neutral." Hold, but don't chase. 🔴 Underweight (Aggressive Sell / Avoid) Banks & Insurers:   Crash Warning.  Short Term momentum collapsed to "High Bearish." Sell rallies. Coal Miners:   Busted Flush.  The parabolic move from Jan 9 vanished. Momentum is gone. Telecoms:   Failed Breakout.  Dropped from "Strong" to "Weak." The defensive bid evaporated. Technology & Consumer Disc:  Structural downtrends remain intact. 3. Detailed Sector Analysis by Tier Tier 1: The "Precious" Momentum (Gold & Platinum) Sectors:  Gold Miners, Platinum Miners Status:  Aggressive Bull Trend Technical Profile (13 Jan): Gold:  Strong (MT) / High Bullish (ST) Platinum:  Overbought (MT) / Strong (ST) Analysis:  This is a unified bid for precious metals. Gold Miners  saw the most dramatic improvement, shifting from "Neutral" to "High Bullish." Investors are panic-buying gold exposure, likely hedging against the broader weakness seen in Financials. Tier 2: The Survivors (Value & Safety) Sectors:  Chemicals, Consumer Staples Status:  Relative Strength Technical Profile (13 Jan): Short Term:  Strong Analysis:  In a market where almost everything else fell, these two stood tall. Chemicals  holding its "Strong" rating suggests the turnaround story is real and not just a blip. Staples  remains the preferred bunker for risk-off capital. Tier 3: The "Pop & Drop" (Failed Momentum) Sectors:  Coal Miners, Telecoms, Diversified Miners Status:  Momentum Vacuum Technical Profile (13 Jan): Coal:  Neutral (MT/ST) Telecoms:  Weak (ST) Analysis:  A graveyard for last week's chasers. Coal  went from "High Bullish" (Jan 9) to "Neutral" (Jan 13)—a complete momentum wash-out. Telecoms  suffered a similar fate, proving that the defensive rotation into telcos was temporary. Tier 4: The Financial Crisis (Banks & Insurers) Sectors:  Banks, Insurers Status:  Liquidation Technical Profile (13 Jan): Short Term:   High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold Analysis:  This is the most alarming signal on the board. Financials have moved from "Neutral" to "High Bearish" in just two days. This suggests a specific, aggressive seller is dumping SA Inc. exposure. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital