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  • Retailer Near Cycle Lows vs JSE Top 40 Index

    Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Upper Panel: TFG (Foschini) Relative to JSE Top 40 Index Lower Panel: TFG (Foschini) Relative to JSE Top 40 Index - Distance vs 200-week Moving Average. Key Takeaway: The share is trading 52% below it's 200-week SMA relative to the JSE Top 40 Index. Over the past 25 years, this has also happened on 2 other occasion, both of which was followed by subsequent relative outperformance of TFG vs the broader market. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • S&P 500 Index: Outlook via Monthly Time Frame Chart

    Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range  high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range  may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • JSE Top 40 Index: Monthly Overbought + Poor Reward-to-Risk

    Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Monthly Time Frame Analysis as of 28 December 2025 Key Points: Primary Category : OVERBOUGHT / CLIMAX PHASE  🔴 Expected Path : TECHNICAL RESET / MEAN REVERSION  ⚪ Strategic Overlay : BOOK PROFITS / WAIT FOR STRUCTURAL SUPPORT  🟡 Core Thesis The JSE Top 40 Index (Monthly)  is exhibiting extreme overextension, trading at record levels following a sustained multi-year advance that has seen the index gain approximately 55% off the 07 April low . While long-term structural momentum remains firmly in the "Strong Buy" tier, the immediate configuration signals a potential climax phase. Strategic caution is advised as technical indicators reach historical ceilings, suggesting that while the primary trend is bullish, the reward-to-risk for new entries is deteriorating in favor of a mean-reversion event toward major monthly moving averages. Analyst's Price Action Model 🟢 Bullish Scenario: Blue Sky Extension : Price ignores extreme overbought readings and moves toward the 115,000+  handle, driven by a physical supply squeeze in resources and sustained optimism following credit rating upgrades. ⚪ Base Scenario: High-Level Flagging : The index undergoes a necessary "cooling off" period, consolidating between 103,000 and 108,000  to allow ultra-volatile indicators to normalize while the structural trend remains intact. 🔴 Bearish Scenario: Momentum Failure : A sharp rejection at the 110,000  handle triggers a high-volume flush toward the 106,000  breakout range, signaling a tactical "blow-off top" before a deeper macro reset. Technical Take: Momentum-Based (Expanded) Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range  high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range  may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • JSE Insurers: Outlook via Weekly Time Frame Chart

    Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range  high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range  may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Diversified Miners: Outlook via Weekly Time Frame

    Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range  high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range  may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • JSE Technology Sector: Outlook via Weekly Time Frame

    Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range  high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range  may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • JSE Sector Rotation Report

    Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Date: 28-December-2025 JSE Sector Rotation Report Summary: The Verdict Platinum Miners Demoted, Gold Miners Takes the Crown The latest relative analysis of the JSE sectors reveals a significant shift in leadership. Despite long-term structural strength, Platinum Miners  have been demoted from the top spot due to elevated execution risk; specifically, the sector is flashing "Overbought" signals across medium and short-term timeframes. Consequently, Gold Miners  have emerged as the new preferred leader. This sector offers a sustainable trend profile, combining structural bullishness with a healthy "Neutral" short-term reading, indicating it is not currently overheated. Elsewhere, deep weakness persists across Consumer facing sectors (both Discretionary and Staples) and Technology, which remain in the "Danger Zone." 2. Strategic Asset Allocation View Suggested portfolio weighting relative to the JSE Top 40 Index based on current technical posture. 🟢 Overweight (Accumulate) Gold Miners:  The primary trend leader. Hospitals:  A tactical "Turnaround" opportunity for aggressive portfolios. 🟡 Neutral (Market Weight / Hold) Banks:  Stable, low volatility. Diversified Miners:  Base building. Platinum Miners:  Downgraded to Hold due to short-term overheating. 🔴 Underweight (Avoid / Reduce) Retailers (General & Food/Drug):  No clear catalyst for upside. Technology & Luxury Goods:  High bearish momentum. Financials (Insurers):  Lacking relative strength. Resources (Coal, Chemicals, Paper):  Weak or falling knife setups. 3. Detailed Sector Analysis by Tier Tier 1: The Leader (Strongest Setup) Sector:  Gold Miners Status:  Preferred / High Bullish Technical Profile: Long Term:  High Bullish Medium Term:  Strong Short Term:  Neutral Analysis:  This is the only sector currently combining "High Bullish Momentum" on a quarterly basis with a "Strong" monthly trend. Crucially, the weekly (Short Term) reading is "Neutral," suggesting the price is consolidating gains rather than extending into overbought territory. This trend is viewed as sustainable. Tier 2: The Tactical Opportunity Sector:  Hospitals Status:  Aggressive / Turnaround Play Technical Profile: Long Term:  Weak Medium Term:  Weak Short Term:   Strong Analysis:  A pure turnaround play for active traders. While the structural trend remains weak, Hospitals are the only sector flashing a "Strong" short-term rating. This divergence suggests a tradable bottom is forming. Tier 3: The Safe Havens (Stability) Sectors:  Banks, Diversified Miners Status:  Defensive / Base Building Technical Profile:  Mostly "Neutral" across timeframes. Analysis: Banks:  Scores "Neutral" across all three timeframes. It avoids "Bearish" tags, offering capital preservation with low volatility. Diversified Miners:  Similar to Banks, the lack of "Weak" signals in the medium/short term makes this a safer hold than declining sectors, though it lacks immediate upside momentum. Tier 4: Proceed with Caution Sector:  Platinum Miners Status:  High Risk / Overbought Technical Profile: Long Term:  Strong Medium Term:   Overbought Short Term:   Overbought Analysis:  While the structural trend is intact, the double "Overbought" reading is a classic warning sign. The risk-to-reward ratio for new entries is poor, and the probability of a pullback or consolidation is high. Investors are advised to hold or trim positions rather than chase. Tier 5: The Drifters (No Trend) Sectors:  Telecoms, Food & Drug Retailers Status:  Range Bound / Avoid Technical Profile:  Neutral (ST) mixed with Weak (MT). Analysis:  These sectors are stuck in the middle. They lack the momentum to break out and are not oversold enough to be value plays. There is no clear catalyst for upside; best avoided unless range-trading. Tier 6: The Contrarian "Punt" Sector:  Paper & Pulp Status:  Value Play / Falling Knife Technical Profile: Long Term:   Oversold Medium Term:  High Bearish Analysis:  Ranked low for trend followers but high for value hunters. The "Oversold" Long Term tag suggests the sector is cheap, but the "High Bearish Momentum" in the Medium Term means the falling knife has not yet landed. Tier 7: The Laggards Sectors:  Life Assurance, Coal Miners Status:  Weakness Technical Profile:  Dominant "Weak" ratings. Analysis:  These sectors show no redeeming momentum signals. They are underperforming the index and should be avoided. Tier 8: The Danger Zone Sectors:  General Retailers, Technology, Chemicals, Luxury Goods Status:  High Bearish Momentum Technical Profile:  Weak (LT) + High Bearish (MT). Analysis:  These sectors are the least preferred in the market. They are flagged with "High Bearish Momentum," indicating that the path of least resistance is down. Investors should avoid these sectors until clear signs of stabilization emerge. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Satrix Resources ETF: Outlook via Monthly Time Frame (Currently Running +167%)

    Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Our initial view on the Satrix Resources ETF (STXRES) was published just under two years ago (13 February 2024) in which we overlayed the ETF with the Chinese Yuan. Subsequently, the ETF experienced a sharp bullish reversal, which was followed by a call to reduce into strength. Long term, the ETF is looking to continue it's recovery as it looks to develop a change of trend (from neutral to bullish). Updated Chart as of 26 December: The original comment, as published on Tuesday 13 February for Unum Capital clients, is shown below. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • JSE Platinum Miners: Outlook via Weekly Time Frame

    Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range  high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range  may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • JSE Banks: Outlook via Weekly Time Frame

    Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range  high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range  may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Global Market Risk Index

    Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Monthly Time Frame: Room to run? Trend remain up. Sentiment not yet at extreme levels. See blue shaded area similar to prior years. The indicator is a custom-built risk and sentiment index, designed to assess market risk appetite, including whether sentiment is at an extreme position (i.e. excessively bullish or excessively bearish). Components: Copper:  Copper often serves as a proxy for global economic activity. A decline in copper prices could signal slowing economic growth, increasing risk. High Beta vs Low Beta:  High beta stocks tend to be more volatile than low beta stocks. A widening spread between high and low beta returns might indicate increased risk aversion. Growth vs Value:  Growth stocks typically outperform value stocks in bull markets. A shift towards value stocks could suggest investors are becoming more cautious. EM Currencies:  Emerging market currencies can be sensitive to risk appetite. A weakening of EM currencies could signal increased risk aversion. AUD/USD:  The Australian Dollar is often used as a proxy for global risk sentiment. A decline in AUD/USD could indicate increased risk aversion. Consumer Staples vs Consumer Discretionary:  Consumer staples are generally considered defensive assets. A shift towards consumer staples could suggest investors are seeking safety. Semiconductors vs S&P 500:  The semiconductor sector is cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. Underperformance of semiconductors relative to the broader market could signal increased risk. Russell 2000 ETF:  This ETF tracks small-cap stocks, which are generally considered riskier than large-cap stocks. Underperformance of the Russell 2000 could suggest increased risk aversion. U.S. Dollar Index (Inverse):  A strengthening US Dollar often signals a flight to safety, suggesting increased risk aversion. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • ☰ Research: December 2025

    Thank you for your interest in our research. Our aim is to convey insights that help clients: (1) Manage Risks and (2) Uncover Opportunities. Year-to-date we have published over 1800 research notes that helps clients do just that. If you've been a consumer of our research but have not traded via the Unum Capital trading desk, why not consider making us your trading services provider? To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Featured Post: Unum Capital Comment For Bloomberg (Sat, 29-Nov) https://www.unum.capital/post/ucbbg3011 Featured Post:   20 Days, 20 Take Profit Opportunities https://www.unum.capital/post/20daysnov Latest Research: Free Take Profit on Copper Miners ETF: Running +78% https://www.unum.capital/post/copx2212 Free Take Profit on Citigroup: Running +47% https://www.unum.capital/post/c2212 Free Take Profit: Physical Palladium Shares ETF (Running +63%) https://www.unum.capital/post/pall2212 Free Commodities: Iron Ore https://www.unum.capital/post/fef2112 Free 27k Target Exceeded: 1nvest Palladium ETF (Running +30%) https://www.unum.capital/post/etfpld1912 Free Monthly Turnaround (JSE Miner) https://www.unum.capital/post/ari1912 Free Trading Palladium (XPDUSD) https://www.unum.capital/post/xpd1812 Free Short Term Traders: Grab This +5% on Bid Corp https://www.unum.capital/post/bid1812 Free This Commodity Gained +86% in 10 Months https://www.unum.capital/post/xpt1712 Free Spot Platinum: Medium Term Outlook & Probabilities https://www.unum.capital/post/1xpt1712 Free Take Profits: MTN Group Rebounding +7.8% vs Buy Re-Entry Range https://www.unum.capital/post/mtn1712 Free Take Profit: Grab This R10 on Impala Platinum https://www.unum.capital/post/imp1712 Free Trading Northam Platinum https://www.unum.capital/post/nph1712 Free JSE Top 40 Index https://www.unum.capital/post/j2001712 Free Sibanye Stillwater: Monthly Time Frame Outlook https://www.unum.capital/post/ssw1712 Free Take Profit (SCJ ETF): Running +20% & Multi-Year High https://www.unum.capital/post/scj1512 Free 🎥 Video: Trading Northam Platinum https://www.unum.capital/post/nph1512 Free Take Profit (ETF): Running +49% & All-Time High https://www.unum.capital/post/epu1512 Free +50 Shares: High Level View on Daily & Weekly https://www.unum.capital/post/hl1512 Free Spot Gold https://www.unum.capital/post/xau1412 Free Spot Platinum https://www.unum.capital/post/xpt1412 Free Absa Group https://www.unum.capital/post/abg1412 Free Shoprite Holdings https://www.unum.capital/post/shp1412 Free Old Mutual https://www.unum.capital/post/omu1412 Free JSE Sectors: Rotation + Leaders & Laggards https://www.unum.capital/post/ll1412 Free Ranking The Sectors https://www.unum.capital/post/rank1412 Free JSE Sectors: Key Takeaways https://www.unum.capital/post/ktwa1412 Free JSE Sectors: Momentum Shifts https://www.unum.capital/post/mosh1412   Free 2x Opportunities: One Buy. One Sell. Same Share https://www.unum.capital/post/mtn1212 Free +53% In 4 Months. Take Profits On This Rebound https://www.unum.capital/post/imp1212 Free 🎥 Video: Monitor R259 to R263 https://www.unum.capital/post/shp1212 Free Take Profits: European Financials ETF Running +44% https://www.unum.capital/post/eufn1212 Free Room To Run: Weekly Chart Target = R270 https://www.unum.capital/post/ned1212 Free JSE Top 40 Index https://www.unum.capital/post/j2001212 Free JSE Mining Share: 1st Bullish Candle in Downward Trend https://www.unum.capital/post/exx1112 Free 🎥 Video: Discussing S&P 500 Index: https://www.unum.capital/post/spy1112 Free Retailer Extremely Oversold (Short Term Bounce Due) https://www.unum.capital/post/mrp1112 Free Trading Nasdaq 100 https://www.unum.capital/post/nasd1112 Free JSE Sectors: Rotation + Leaders & Laggards https://www.unum.capital/post/ll1112 Free JSE Sectors: Key Takeaways https://www.unum.capital/post/ktwa1112 Free JSE Sectors: Momentum Shifts https://www.unum.capital/post/mosh1112 Free JSE Sectors: Risk Factors & Contrarian Signals https://www.unum.capital/post/rfcs1112 Free Running +14%. Take Profits on IWM ETF https://www.unum.capital/post/iwm1112 Free Running +24%. Take Profits https://www.unum.capital/post/bhg1012 Featured Post:   Unum Capital Comment For Bloomberg (Mr. Price) https://www.unum.capital/post/bbg1012 Free Trading Spot Gold https://www.unum.capital/post/xau1012 Free Trading Discovery Holdings https://www.unum.capital/post/dsy1012 Free Trading MTN Group https://www.unum.capital/post/mtn0912 Free Trading Bitcoin https://www.unum.capital/post/btc0912 Free South African 10-Year Bond Yield https://www.unum.capital/post/zaten0912 Free 🎥 Video: Trading Thungela Resources https://www.unum.capital/post/tga0912 Free Trading Bid Corp https://www.unum.capital/post/bid0912 Free USD/ZAR https://www.unum.capital/post/usdzar0912 Free Absa Group https://www.unum.capital/post/abg0912 Free JSE Top 40 Index https://www.unum.capital/post/j2000812 Free Northam Platinum https://www.unum.capital/post/nph0812 Free Gold Fields https://www.unum.capital/post/gfi0812 Free Harmony Gold https://www.unum.capital/post/har0812 Free Absa Group: Long Term Target of R220 Exceeded https://www.unum.capital/post/abg0812 Free Trading Spot Silver: Here's What You Need To Know https://www.unum.capital/post/xag0712 Free Trading Sibanye Stillwater https://www.unum.capital/post/ssw0712 Free Trading Impala Platinum https://www.unum.capital/post/imp0712 Free Trading Anglo American Plc https://www.unum.capital/post/agl0712 Free Trading BHP Group https://www.unum.capital/post/bhg0712 Free Trading Spot Gold https://www.unum.capital/post/xau0712 Free Trading Palladium https://www.unum.capital/post/xpd0712 Free JSE Sectors: Key Takeaways https://www.unum.capital/post/ktwa0712 Free JSE Sectors: Momentum Shift Matrix https://www.unum.capital/post/mosh0712 Free JSE Sectors: Rotation / Leaders & Laggards https://www.unum.capital/post/ll0712 Free JSE Sectors: Ranking The Sectors https://www.unum.capital/post/rank0712 Free JSE Top 40 Index: Daily Time Frame Outlook https://www.unum.capital/post/j2000512 Free Take (Partial) Profits on Mr. Price (Running +4.6% vs Buy Re-Entry) https://www.unum.capital/post/mrp0512 Free Trade Idea: Buy Between R79 to R80. Sell Above R90 https://www.unum.capital/post/tga0512 Free Satrix Resources ETF (Monthly Chart) https://www.unum.capital/post/stxres0512 Free Strategy Alert: Sasol https://www.unum.capital/post/sol0512 Free Take Profit For Intraday Cash Flow (+R220 to R215) https://www.unum.capital/post/2abg0412 Free JSE Top 40 Index: Weekly & Monthly Outlook https://www.unum.capital/post/j2000412 Free 🎥 Video: Trading Harmony Gold https://www.unum.capital/post/har0412 Free Trading Like A Rocket!!! https://www.unum.capital/post/bhg0414 Free Flash Note: Gold Fields https://www.unum.capital/post/gfi0412 Free Trading Absa Group https://www.unum.capital/post/abg0412 Free Trading Sibanye Stillwater https://www.unum.capital/post/ssw0412 Free Take Profit: PICK ETF (Running +18.5%) https://www.unum.capital/post/pick0312 Free Take Profit on Brazilian Equities (EWZ ETF +45%) https://www.unum.capital/post/ewz0312 Free Naspers Disappointing, For Now https://www.unum.capital/post/npn0312 Free Running +32%. Take Profit https://www.unum.capital/post/gln0312 Free Trading FX: EUR/USD https://www.unum.capital/post/eurusd0312 Free Running +6.6%. Take Profit (Short Term Traders) https://www.unum.capital/post/exx0312 Free Running +9%. Take Profit (Short Term Traders) https://www.unum.capital/post/tga0312 Free JSE Top 40 Index https://www.unum.capital/post/j2000312 Free Opportunity #4 For Harmony Gold https://www.unum.capital/post/har0312 Free Trading Shoprite https://www.unum.capital/post/shp0312 Free JSE Sectors: Key Takeaways https://www.unum.capital/post/ktw0312 Free JSE Sectors: Momentum Shift Matrix https://www.unum.capital/post/mosh0312 Free JSE Sectors: Rotation / Leaders & Laggards https://www.unum.capital/post/ll0312 Free JSE Sectors: Ranking The Sectors https://www.unum.capital/post/rank0312 Free Trading Investec Ltd: Early Buy Trigger https://www.unum.capital/post/inl0212 Free Thungela Resources: Take Profit (Intraday Traders) https://www.unum.capital/post/3tga0212 Free Exxaro Resources Resources Intraday Cash Flow https://www.unum.capital/post/2exx0212 Free 🎥 Video: Thungela Resources Intraday Cash Flow https://www.unum.capital/post/2tga0212 Free Trading Exxaro Resources https://www.unum.capital/post/exx0212 Free Trading Spot Gold https://www.unum.capital/post/xau0212 Free Valterra Platinum: Take Profit (+30%) https://www.unum.capital/post/val0212 Free Northam Platinum: Take Profit (+14%) https://www.unum.capital/post/nph0212 Free Trading BHP Group https://www.unum.capital/post/bhg0212 Free Trading Thungela Resources https://www.unum.capital/post/tga0212 Free Spot Silver. S/T Traders Take Profit (Running +22%) http://unum.capital/post/xag0112 Free S&P 500 Index: Multi-Time Frame View https://www.unum.capital/post/spy0112 Free Spot Platinum. S/T Traders Take Profit (Running +14%) https://www.unum.capital/post/xpt0112 Free MTN Group: Take Profits (-11% vs Sell Re-Entry/Exhaustion Range) https://www.unum.capital/post/mtn0112 Free Nedbank: S/T Traders Take (Partial) Profits (-4.97% vs Sell Re-Entry) https://www.unum.capital/post/2ned0112 Free South 32: Short Term Traders Take Profit + Updated MTF View https://www.unum.capital/post/s320112 Free 🎥 Video: Trading Nedbank https://www.unum.capital/post/ned0112 Free 🎥 Video: Trading Harmony Gold (Where To Next) https://www.unum.capital/post/har0112 Free Trading Standard Bank: Short Term Re-Entries In The Money https://www.unum.capital/post/sbk0112 Free Spot Gold: Momentum Analysis + Key Levels https://www.unum.capital/post/xau0112 Free JSE Top 40 Index https://www.unum.capital/post/j2003011 Free Trading MTN Group https://www.unum.capital/post/mtn3011 Free Trading Naspers https://www.unum.capital/post/npn3011 Free Trading Prosus https://www.unum.capital/post/prx3011 Free Trading Richemont https://www.unum.capital/post/cfr3011 Free Trading Bidvest https://www.unum.capital/post/bvt3011 Free Sibanye Stillwater https://www.unum.capital/post/ssw3011 Free Trading Standard Bank https://www.unum.capital/post/sbk3011 Free Trading Harmony Gold https://www.unum.capital/post/har3011 Free Sasol https://www.unum.capital/post/sol3011 Free JSE Sectors: Key Takeaways https://www.unum.capital/post/jsekt3011 Free JSE Sectors: Momentum Shift Matrix https://www.unum.capital/post/mosht3011 Free JSE Sectors: Rotation / Leaders & Laggards https://www.unum.capital/post/rota3011 Free JSE Sectors: Ranking The Sectors https://www.unum.capital/post/rank3011 Free JSE Sectors: The 'Why' Behind The Flows https://www.unum.capital/post/why3011 November consisted of 20 trading days. Out the 20 days, there were 20 opportunities to generate cash. Here are 20 recent opportunities to take profits : > JSE Top 40 Index (+6200 Points) https://www.unum.capital/post/j2002111 > Sasol 40% https://www.unum.capital/post/sol2011 > Astral Foods +55% https://www.unum.capital/post/parlm > Nedbank +25% https://www.unum.capital/post/ned1711 > Redefine Properties: +32% https://www.unum.capital/post/rdf1711 > Harmony Gold (3x) https://www.unum.capital/post/har2611 > Johnson & Johnson (+25%) https://www.unum.capital/post/jnj2411 > Invesco Pharmaceutical ETF https://www.unum.capital/post/pjp2511 > Truworths +15% https://www.unum.capital/post/tru2011 > Cisco Systems +34% https://www.unum.capital/post/csco1311 > Tiger Brands +25% https://www.unum.capital/post/tbs2611 > Impala Platinum https://www.unum.capital/post/imp1811 > SBIO ETF https://www.unum.capital/post/sbio2411 > Absa https://www.unum.capital/post/abg2411 > Valterra Platinum https://www.unum.capital/post/val1811 > Prosus https://www.unum.capital/post/prx2411 > Invesco Healthcare Momentum ETF https://www.unum.capital/post/pth2711 > Northam Platinum https://www.unum.capital/post/nph2711 > Sibanye Stillwater https://www.unum.capital/post/ssw1811 > FirstRand (2x) https://www.unum.capital/post/fsr2811 Archive: Year-To-Date November 2025 https://www.unum.capital/post/rnov2025 October 2025 https://www.unum.capital/post/roct2025 29 September to 03 October https://www.unum.capital/post/r2903oct 22 to 26 September https://www.unum.capital/post/r2226sept 15 to 19 September https://www.unum.capital/post/r1519sept 08 to 12 September https://www.unum.capital/post/r0812sept 01 to 05 September https://www.unum.capital/post/r0105sept 25 to 29 August https://www.unum.capital/post/r2529august 18 to 22 August https://www.unum.capital/post/r1822august 11 to 15 August https://www.unum.capital/post/r1115august 04 to 08 August https://www.unum.capital/post/r0408august 28 July to 01 August https://www.unum.capital/post/r2801august 21 July to 25 July https://www.unum.capital/post/r2125july 14 July to 18 July https://www.unum.capital/post/r1418july 07 July to 11 July https://www.unum.capital/post/r0711july 30 June to 04 July https://www.unum.capital/post/r3004july 23 June to 27 June https://www.unum.capital/post/r2327june 16 June to 20 June https://www.unum.capital/post/r1620june 09 June to 13 June https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june 02 June to 06 June https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june 26 May to 30 May   https://www.unum.capital/post/r2630may 19 May to 23 May https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may 12 May to 16 May   https://www.unum.capital/post/research-12-16-may-2025 05 May to 09 May   https://www.unum.capital/post/research-05-09-may-2025 28 April to 02 May   https://www.unum.capital/post/research-28-april-02-may-2025 21 April to 25 April   https://www.unum.capital/post/212504 14 April to 18 April   https://www.unum.capital/post/research-14-18-april-2025 07 April to 11 April   https://www.unum.capital/post/research-07-11-april-2025 31 March to 04 April   https://www.unum.capital/post/research-31-march-04-april-2025 24 March to 28 March   https://www.unum.capital/post/research-24-28-march-2025 17 March to 21 March   https://www.unum.capital/post/research-17-21-march-2025 10 March to 14 March   https://www.unum.capital/post/research-10-14-march-2025 02 January to 07 March   https://www.unum.capital/post/latest-research-january-2025 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

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