Search this site

Research Notes October 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/roct2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za EOD 02 October 2025 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes October 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/roct2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Once the votes exceeds 20, the idea will be published. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes October 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/roct2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Our previous view considered rotating out of JSE Banks. Over the period, the sector has underperformed the JSE Top 40 by 22%. Previous Post (10 December) JSE Banks Are Overbought On A Relative Basis. Consider Rotating Out. JSE Banks Relative To JSE Top 40 Index Previous Post: Monday 02 December 2024 (Pre-Market) This chart is available to NON-CLIENTS of Unum Capital. Specifically, if you are: New to financial markets and looking to start your trading journey. An experienced trader, but looking to elevate your trading. Interested in an ACTIVE TRADING approach. Interested in a high quality, award-winning research. Interested in insights that informs and identifies both risks and opportunities. Should you you fit into any of the above categories, we would love a few minutes of your time to be able to further explain why you should consider Unum Capital your trading partner. To access, e-mail your name and contact details to   lester@unum.co.za    To open a trading account, e-mail   lester@unum.co.za    Key Features of Chart: Trading at the upper boundary of a multi-year rising channel Technical Regime: Medium term (Weekly Chart) = High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought RANKED & RECOGNIZED: Unum Research Attains 3rd Place In The 2024 Securities Broker Awards In September 2024, Unum Research was recognized for it's capabilities.  Among well-respected boutiques and ahead of household giants such as FNB and Nedbank, the unit attained 3rd place for the period under review. Commenting on the award, Analyst: Lester Davids remarked: "The award speaks to the high quality of output being recognized by our valued clients as well as the consistency of insights and actionable opportunities that has been delivered over the past 8 years." Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes October 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/roct2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Taiwan Semiconductor Co. Previous Post (20 June): Taiwan Semiconductor: The World's Most Important Chipmaker Executive Summary Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the world's largest and most advanced dedicated semiconductor foundry. It manufactures chips designed by other companies, meaning it doesn't compete with its customers (e.g., Apple, Nvidia, AMD). An investment in TSMC is a bet on the continuation of its technological supremacy and the world's ever-increasing demand for advanced computing power, balanced against significant geopolitical risks and the industry's cyclical nature. The Bull Case: Why Invest in TSMC? The argument for investing in TSMC rests on four key pillars: market dominance, exposure to secular growth trends, stellar financials, and deep customer integration. 1. Unassailable Market Dominance & Technological Moat Market Share:  TSMC is the undisputed leader. It controls over 60% of the total semiconductor foundry market. Critically, its share of the most advanced, high-margin nodes (e.g., 5nm and 3nm) is over 90%. This is a near-monopoly on the technology that powers the world's most sophisticated devices. Technology Leadership:  TSMC is consistently one generation of process technology ahead of its rivals, Samsung and Intel. It is currently ramping up its 3nm node production and is on a clear roadmap to deliver 2nm (N2) technology in 2025. This lead is incredibly difficult to close, as it requires decades of cumulative expertise and massive, sustained capital expenditure. Pure-Play Foundry Model:  By not designing its own branded chips, TSMC has built immense trust with the world's leading fabless semiconductor companies (Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, MediaTek). These companies are willing to share their most confidential designs with TSMC, knowing TSMC will not become a competitor. This creates extremely high switching costs. 2. Riding Powerful Secular Growth Waves TSMC is the essential manufacturing partner for the most significant technological shifts of our time. Artificial Intelligence (AI):  The AI boom is a massive tailwind. Every major AI chip, from Nvidia's H100/B100 GPUs to custom AI accelerators from Google and Amazon, is manufactured by TSMC. Training and running AI models requires an immense amount of cutting-edge computing power, a demand that flows directly to TSMC. Its advanced packaging technology (like CoWoS) is also critical for assembling these complex AI systems and represents another high-margin growth area. High-Performance Computing (HPC):  Data centers, scientific research, and enterprise computing all demand increasingly powerful and efficient processors. AMD's EPYC server chips and other HPC solutions are made at TSMC. Premium Smartphones & 5G:  Apple, its largest customer, relies exclusively on TSMC for the A-series and M-series chips in its iPhones, iPads, and Macs. The move to more complex 5G devices requires more advanced and power-efficient silicon. Automotive & IoT:  While using less advanced nodes today, the trend towards autonomous driving, advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), and connected devices represents a long-term, stable growth driver. 3. Exceptional Financial Strength & Profitability Pricing Power:  Due to its technological monopoly on the leading edge, TSMC commands significant pricing power. Customers are willing to pay a premium for the best performance and power efficiency, which directly translates to high margins. High Margins:  The company consistently operates with gross margins above 50% and strong operating margins, a testament to its efficiency and pricing power, even with massive capital outlays. Strong Balance Sheet & Cash Flow:  TSMC maintains a healthy balance sheet with a strong net cash position, allowing it to fund its aggressive expansion plans while returning capital to shareholders. 4. Deep Customer Integration and Ecosystem Sticky Relationships:  The collaboration between a chip designer and a foundry is incredibly deep and complex, often lasting years. Migrating a complex design like an Nvidia GPU or an Apple A-series chip to a new foundry is prohibitively expensive, time-consuming, and risky. The OIP Ecosystem:  TSMC’s Open Innovation Platform (OIP) provides its customers with a comprehensive ecosystem of design tools, intellectual property, and support, further embedding them into TSMC's world and raising switching costs. The Bear Case: Risks & Challenges The risks associated with TSMC are significant and cannot be understated. They are concentrated in geopolitics, industry dynamics, and valuation. 1. Geopolitical Risk: The Elephant in the Room Taiwan-China Tensions:  This is the single greatest risk. TSMC's most advanced manufacturing facilities are located in Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory. Any military conflict, blockade, or invasion would be catastrophic for the company and the global technology supply chain. Warren Buffett famously sold his entire stake in TSMC, citing this geopolitical tension as the primary reason. US-China "Chip War":  TSMC is caught in the middle of the strategic competition between the US and China. US regulations have forced it to stop supplying advanced chips to Chinese companies like Huawei. This tightrope walk could become more difficult, potentially impacting its access to markets or technology. Geographic Concentration:  Despite efforts to diversify, the overwhelming majority of its production, especially on the leading edge, is concentrated in Taiwan, making it vulnerable to natural disasters (earthquakes, droughts) in addition to political risks. 2. High Capital Intensity & Industry Cyclicality Massive Capital Expenditures (CapEx):  Maintaining a technological lead requires staggering investment. TSMC's annual CapEx is often in the range of $30-$40 billion. While necessary, this high spending can pressure free cash flow and carries the risk of overbuilding if future demand doesn't meet projections. Semiconductor Cycles:  The semiconductor industry is historically cyclical. It experiences periods of boom (shortages, high prices) and bust (oversupply, inventory correction, falling prices). While secular trends may dampen this, the risk of a downturn remains, which would impact TSMC's revenue and profitability. 3. Resurgent Competition Intel:  With its IDM 2.0 strategy, Intel is investing heavily to build out its own foundry services and aims to reclaim process technology leadership by 2025. Backed by substantial government support from the US CHIPS Act, Intel is a serious long-term threat. Samsung:  Samsung is TSMC's closest competitor in terms of technology. It is also investing aggressively to win over major customers and close the technology gap. While it has struggled with yields in the past, it remains a formidable competitor. 4. Valuation & Margin Pressure High Expectations:  As of mid-2025, much of the optimism around AI has been priced into the stock, pushing its valuation to historical highs. If growth were to slow or margins were to compress, the stock could be vulnerable to a significant correction. Global Expansion Costs:  Building and operating fabs in the US (Arizona) and Japan is significantly more expensive than in Taiwan. While this diversification is necessary to mitigate geopolitical risk, it will likely exert downward pressure on the company's legendary gross margins. TSM Daily Chart: Multi-Month Consolidation + Re-Emerging Bull Trend Conclusion & Investment Thesis An investment in TSMC  is a high-conviction bet on the "picks and shovels" of the digital revolution. You are buying the world's most critical technology infrastructure company, which is indispensable to nearly every major technology leader. The Bull Thesis:  You believe that the secular growth trends in AI, HPC, and 5G will continue to drive immense demand for leading-edge semiconductors, that TSMC will maintain its technological lead over Intel and Samsung, and that it can successfully navigate the complex geopolitical landscape. The Bear Thesis:  You are concerned that the profound geopolitical risk of a conflict over Taiwan is un-investable, that competition from a resurgent, government-backed Intel could erode margins, or that the semiconductor industry is heading for a cyclical downturn. Ultimately, an investor must weigh the company's unparalleled competitive advantages and growth prospects against the very real and significant geopolitical threat. Analyst Disclosure: The commentary in this report was produced using an A.I Tool. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes October 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/roct2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes October 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/roct2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Trading Netcare: Downward Momentum Slowing + Candle Structure Improving On the watchlist as a buy idea. Provisional trading range: Entry: 1282c to 1307c Stop-loss: 1242c Target: 1402c Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes October 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/roct2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za *....historically a monthly RSI +90 is rare and has almost never offered an appealing reward-to-risk for 'new buys/longs'. Prior to the current setup, Gold's monthly RSI was above 90 in 1973 & 1980. On both occasions, the 3 to 4 month returns were poor....* Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes October 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/roct2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post: Global Ideas: ASML Thursday 31 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market Share: ASML Holding Exchange: Euronext Ticker: ASML Sector: Semiconductors Tactical Trading Guide 3x Time Frame Reading: Daily Price Chart Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes October 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/roct2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (29 September): Actionable Areas: Discovery Holdings Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Thank you for your interest in our research. Our aim is to convey insights that help clients: (1) Manage Risks and (2) Uncover Opportunities. Year-to-date we have published over 1400 research notes that helps clients do just that. If you've been a consumer of our research but have not traded via the Unum Capital trading desk, why not consider making us your trading services provider? To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Free ETF Idea: +51% in 15 Weeks https://www.unum.capital/post/ipbwa Free Buy Idea: iShares U.S. Infrastructure ETF https://www.unum.capital/post/ifrai Free Talen Energy: Running +24% https://www.unum.capital/post/talenrun Free 🎥 Watch: Provisional Buy Re-Entry R345 to R355 https://www.unum.capital/post/isnta Free Re-Enter (Buy) Between R288 & 295, Sell at R320 https://www.unum.capital/post/itbse Free Bank/Take Profit (Running +46%) https://www.unum.capital/post/copbank Free Prosus: Overbought Bull Trend; Prepare For A Pullback https://www.unum.capital/post/propre Free 🎥 Watch: This Commodity is Overbought https://www.unum.capital/post/silobo Free Buy at R527, Sell at R645 https://www.unum.capital/post/iagla Free 🎥 Watch: Provisional Buy Re-Entry 4400c to 4800c https://www.unum.capital/post/itrua Free 🎥 Watch: Buy at R260, Sell at R320 https://www.unum.capital/post/ihare Free Buy Idea: Lockheed Martin https://www.unum.capital/post/buylmt Free Technical Screen: 7 Shares Trading 20% or More vs 50-EMA https://www.unum.capital/post/vsfifty Free Buy Idea: DT Midstream https://www.unum.capital/post/dtmid Free Buy Idea: iShares Global Energy Producers ETF (FILL) https://www.unum.capital/post/filletf Featured Post: Themes From Our Screens https://www.unum.capital/post/themesc Free JSE Relative Sector Analysis https://www.unum.capital/post/jsersay Free Where is the Money Flowing? https://www.unum.capital/post/witmflo Free Ranking The Sectors (Most to Least Preferred) https://www.unum.capital/post/rankdas Free Thematic Sector Breakdown https://www.unum.capital/post/tsebrea Free Market Risk Index (All Time Frames) https://www.unum.capital/post/marinx Free JSE PGMs: Assessing The Current Reward-to-Risk https://www.unum.capital/post/pgmas Free 🎥 Watch: Screener (High Demand Shares) https://www.unum.capital/post/highdem Free 🎥 Watch: Trading Exxaro Resources https://www.unum.capital/post/watchexxr Free 🎥 Watch: Actionable Areas MTN Group https://www.unum.capital/post/mtnacta Free 🎥 Watch: Target Prior Highs 2900c to 3500c https://www.unum.capital/post/taroldhi Free Actionable Areas: Discovery Holdings https://www.unum.capital/post/actdsy Free Global Buy Idea: National Grid https://www.unum.capital/post/natgrid Free Global Buy Idea: Iberdrola https://www.unum.capital/post/iberdrola Free Sprott Lithium Miners ETF https://www.unum.capital/post/litpetf Free VanEck Steel ETF https://www.unum.capital/post/steeletf Free Sell/Reduce Idea https://www.unum.capital/post/gfiredu Free British American Tobacco: Zooming Out https://www.unum.capital/post/tobazoom Free 🎥 Watch: What's The Story With Platinum? https://www.unum.capital/post/platstor Free 🎥 Watch: Buy Re-Entry 8500c to 8900c https://www.unum.capital/post/isppe Free   Exposure To Silver Miners https://www.unum.capital/post/silsix9 Free   $DBP Invesco Precious Metals Fund: Running 32% https://www.unum.capital/post/dbprun Free U.S. Sectors: Key Takeaways + Momentum + Money Flows https://www.unum.capital/post/usktaw Free U.S. Markets: Ranking The Sectors https://www.unum.capital/post/rathesect Upcoming Research Notes (Non-Comprehensive): The Big Breakdown/Rounding Top (JSE-Listed Share) Zooming Out: Long Term Change of Trend (Neutral To Bearish, JSE Listed Share) Contributors:  Opportunities to generate cash flow continue to present themselves. The following are some of the recent opportunities highlighted to clients of Unum Capital: Sibanye Stillwater; Anglo American, Glencore, Impala Platinum, Copper Miners ETF, Rare Earths Metals ETF, Quantum Computing ETF; Junior Gold Miners, EOS Energy, Iris Energy (1) Sibanye Stillwater (SSW) is now higher by 230%. On 28 February, we published a research note, 'Long Term Cycle Ready To Unfold?" (2) Anglo American Running +20% - Short Term Idea Via Video. Note Published 26 August. (3) Glencore Plc Running +20%: Oversold Readings via Price Action Model - Note Published 07 August. Prior to that Initial note at 6491c. (4) Impala Platinum +40%: Short Term, We Looked For A Buy Entry at 15100c-15400c. Note Published 13 August. (5) Copper Miners ETF +38%. Now at multi-year highs. (6) Rare Earth Metals (REMX ETF): Running +40% in 9 Weeks (7) Quantum Computing Sector/Theme Over the 11 months (Since 22 October 2024), the Defiance Quantum Computing ETF is higher by 65%. Rigetti Computing, currently the largest constituent is higher by 2100%, from $1.23 to $28.50. On 18 September, the US and UK Governments signed a memorandum of understanding regarding a technology prosperity deal in which quantum computing is a key focus. (8) Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) Exactly one year ago, we highlighted the ETF as a buy, where the target has long been exceeded. The ETF is currently higher by 93% since the time of publication. (9) EOS Energy +69% in 2 Months Big mover in the energy storage theme. (10) Iris Energy (IREN) +176% in 2 Months Archive: Year-To-Date 22 to 26 September https://www.unum.capital/post/r2226sept 15 to 19 September https://www.unum.capital/post/r1519sept 08 to 12 September https://www.unum.capital/post/r0812sept 01 to 05 September https://www.unum.capital/post/r0105sept 25 to 29 August https://www.unum.capital/post/r2529august 18 to 22 August https://www.unum.capital/post/r1822august 11 to 15 August https://www.unum.capital/post/r1115august 04 to 08 August https://www.unum.capital/post/r0408august 28 July to 01 August https://www.unum.capital/post/r2801august 21 July to 25 July https://www.unum.capital/post/r2125july 14 July to 18 July https://www.unum.capital/post/r1418july 07 July to 11 July https://www.unum.capital/post/r0711july 30 June to 04 July https://www.unum.capital/post/r3004july 23 June to 27 June https://www.unum.capital/post/r2327june 16 June to 20 June https://www.unum.capital/post/r1620june 09 June to 13 June https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june 02 June to 06 June https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june 26 May to 30 May   https://www.unum.capital/post/r2630may 19 May to 23 May https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may 12 May to 16 May   https://www.unum.capital/post/research-12-16-may-2025 05 May to 09 May   https://www.unum.capital/post/research-05-09-may-2025 28 April to 02 May   https://www.unum.capital/post/research-28-april-02-may-2025 21 April to 25 April   https://www.unum.capital/post/212504 14 April to 18 April   https://www.unum.capital/post/research-14-18-april-2025 07 April to 11 April   https://www.unum.capital/post/research-07-11-april-2025 31 March to 04 April   https://www.unum.capital/post/research-31-march-04-april-2025 24 March to 28 March   https://www.unum.capital/post/research-24-28-march-2025 17 March to 21 March   https://www.unum.capital/post/research-17-21-march-2025 10 March to 14 March   https://www.unum.capital/post/research-10-14-march-2025 02 January to 07 March   https://www.unum.capital/post/latest-research-january-2025 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital * Disclosure:  To compliment our existing research, we have started incorporating automated tools such as Artificial Intelligence (A.I). Here are three ways in which it helps us: (1) SORT  (large data sets); (2) SPEED  (compile info/notes at an even greater speed); (3) SIGHT  (enhance the visual appeal of our charts/data).

Research Notes 29 Sept - 03 Oct > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2903Oct Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF Running +51% in 15 Weeks. Well Done To Clients Who Are Participating In Active Opportunities. Previous Post (16 June) Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) False breakdown, followed by a reclaim (weekly chart). Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes 29 Sept - 03 Oct > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2903Oct Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za ETF Code: IFRA Buy: $52.72 (or better/lower) Stop-loss: $46.80 Target: $65.00 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital