Search this site

Research Notes For 07 to 11 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0711july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za LONG (BUY) - Manual Analysis RNI exceed our R550 target, trading as high as R615 (from the note at R491 just three weeks prior). SHORT (SELL) - Automated Analysis The recent highs at were accompanied by insights via the price action model (tactical trading guide) warning traders about a poor buy long reward-to-risk. Reinet Investments: R550 Target Exceeded; Corporate Action Sees Share Reach All-Time High Previous Post (10 June): Trading Reinet Investments: A Familiar Consolidation In February at R474, we discussed RNI, highlighting a massive base while also stating that the share has room to run. The share recently crossed above R500 and has developed a consolidation below the highs which appears similar to the one seen in 2023 (see yellow circled area). A break above resistance opens the upper boundary of the channel (~R550) as a target. Amidst today's red, RNI, with it's relative strength caught my attention: Massive multi-month base, with a short term bull flag. Not extended, room to run. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 07 to 11 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0711july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Overall Bullish Trend:  The short (7-day) and medium-term (14-day) trends are both positive ("Strong" and "Bullish"), indicating consistent upward price momentum. Aggressive Buying Underway:  The current market action is characterized by aggressive buying, suggesting traders are actively participating in the upward trend rather than waiting for dips. Strength Across Timeframes:  Buyers are in control across short, medium, and long-term perspectives, creating a cohesive bullish outlook. Momentum is Key:  The primary strategy shifts from "buy the dip" to joining the existing momentum, as buyers are demonstrating significant control. Manage Risk at Highs:  While the trend is strong, a failure to hold prior session highs remains the key risk, which could trigger a reversal or short-term selling pressure. Monthly Chart Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 07 to 11 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0711july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The share traded right in the middle of the R720 to R730 range with a print of R725 before rebounding to it's recent high of R1014 on 24 June. Provisional buy re-entry range R855-R875. Previous Post (Saturday, 05 April, 07h43) Actionable Area: Prosus N.V Prosus N.V (PRX).  The share has retreated from the upper boundary of it's rising channel, encountering distribution over the last 4 weeks. The 75-day EMA and 21-week EMA continue to trend up, however, the deteriorating candle structure does not rule out a move toward the lower boundary of the channel, which is in line with the rising 200-day SMA as well as the 50-week EMA. This comes in at approximately 72000c to 73000c. This range is subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. Last Close: 81094c   Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 07 to 11 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0711july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za *These tables are subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 07 to 11 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0711july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Friday 04 July. These are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Long Term (approximately 5 to 8 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 07 to 11 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0711july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 07 to 11 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0711july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 07 to 11 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0711july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Consistent bullish momentum: Both short and slightly longer short-term trends are bullish, supporting upward price action. Short-term caution: The short-term trend is a bullish regime but currently lacks directional bias and needs a break of range to trigger a new trend. Medium-term steady upward trend: The medium term indicates consolidation within an upward trend. The 8-EMA has been breached, and the 21-EMA is suggested as a potential buy range. Long-term bullish attempt: The long term shows an "In or Commencing Upward Trend," but with a strong caution to consider the potential failure to hold prior session range highs, which could create a tactical short-sell opportunity. In summary, for STXPRO , the current view is cautiously bullish across short to medium terms, with a long-term upward trend that carries a significant warning about potential short-sell opportunities if prior highs are not sustained. However, short-term traders should be cautious and look for a break of range for new trends. The model points to a general upward trend for the price of STXPRO , but with significant caveats regarding directional bias in the short term and potential reversals in the long term. Here's a breakdown of the current price action: The 7-day trend is indicated as "Neutral," while the 14-day trend is "Rangebound." Comparison: The short-term (7-day) trend is "Neutral," while the slightly longer short-term (14-day) trend is "Rangebound." This suggests a lack of clear directional momentum in the immediate and near-term, indicating a period of consolidation or indecision. Potential Trading Approach: Short Term (Approximately Next 1 to 10 Trading Days): The model notes, "Bullish Regime But Currently Lacks Directional Bias Needs Break Of Range To Trigger New Trend." Approach : The short term is in a bullish regime, but without a clear directional bias. The recommended approach is to wait for a definitive break of the current range to trigger a new trend before making a move. This suggests a patient approach, waiting for confirmation of direction. Medium Term (Approximately Next 2 to 4 Weeks): The model indicates "Consolidating Within An Upward Trend. If The 8-EMA Has Been Breached, Use The 21-EMA As A Potential Buy Range." Approach : The medium term suggests consolidation within an overall upward trend. Given that the 8-EMA has been breached, the 21-EMA is identified as a potential buy range. This implies a "buy the dip" strategy within the consolidating upward trend, targeting entries at stronger support levels. Long Term (Approximately Next 5 to 8 Weeks): The model states, "In or Commencing Upward Trend However Strongly Consider The Potential Failure To Hold Prior Session Range Highs Which Will Create A Tactical Short-Sell Opportunity." Approach : The long-term perspective indicates that STXPRO  is either in or commencing an upward trend. However, there's a strong warning to consider the potential failure to hold prior session range highs. If this occurs, it could create a tactical short-sell opportunity. This suggests a bullish long-term outlook but with a critical eye on resistance levels and potential reversals. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 07 to 11 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0711july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Overall Trading Considerations for MTN Group: Consistent bullish momentum: The short-term (7-day) and slightly longer short-term (14-day) trends are strongly bullish, indicating consistent buying pressure. However, this is accompanied by strong cautions against chasing the price and advice to look for pullbacks or potential short-selling opportunities on overshoots in the medium to long term. Short-term caution: Despite the aggressive buying pressure, the model advises looking for pullbacks to the 8 or 21-EMA as buying opportunities, rather than chasing the price, due to potential weakness on lower time frames. Medium-term strong move with caution: The medium term indicates a very strong move with buyers in control, but with a strong warning not to chase the price. There's a noted potential for failure to hold highs, which could make the 8-EMA a short/sell target. Long-term aggressive buying underway with short-sell potential: The long term also shows aggressive buying, but explicitly warns against chasing. It suggests looking for overshoots or failure to hold prior session range highs to initiate short-sell positions back to the 8-EMA. In summary, for MTN Group , the current view is bullish across short to medium terms, with aggressive buying in the long term. However, traders across all timeframes should be highly cautious, focusing on buying pullbacks and being prepared for potential short-selling opportunities if highs are not sustained or overshoots occur. The model points to a general upward trend for the price of MTN Group , but with significant caveats regarding sustainability and entry points. Here's a breakdown of the current price action: The 7-day trend is indicated as "Strong," while the 14-day trend is "Very Bullish." Comparison: Both the short-term (7-day) and slightly longer short-term (14-day) trends indicate upward momentum ("Strong" and "Very Bullish" respectively). This suggests a consistent buying pressure across these timeframes. The "Very Bullish" 14-day trend reinforces the "Strong" 7-day trend, indicating that the recent strength is part of a broader upward movement. Potential Trading Approach: Short Term (Approximately Next 1 to 10 Trading Days): The model notes, "Buyers In Control But Weakness On Lower Time Frame-Look For Pullback To 8 or 21-EMA (Buy Range) Before Next Move Higher." Approach: While buyers are in control, there's a note of potential short-term weakness. The recommended approach is to look for a pullback to the 8 or 21-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to enter a buying range before the next move higher. This suggests a "buy the dip" strategy within an overall bullish short-term trend. Medium Term (Approximately Next 2 to 4 Weeks): The model indicates "Very Strong Move Buyers In Control But Don't Chase-May Fail At Attempt To Hold The Highs-If It Doesn't Hold Then The 8-EMA May Be A Short/Sell Target." Approach: The medium term suggests a very strong upward move with buyers in control. However, the model strongly advises against chasing the price and highlights a potential failure to hold current highs. If these highs are not sustained, the 8-EMA could become a target for short-selling. This implies a bullish outlook but with significant risk management and potential for reversals. Long Term (Approximately Next 5 to 8 Weeks): The model states, "Aggressive Buying But Do Not Chase-Look For Overshoot or Failure To Hold Prior Session Range Highs To Short-Sell Back To The 8-EMA." Approach: The long-term perspective points to aggressive buying. However, it comes with a critical warning not to chase the price. Instead, traders should look for an overshoot of current levels or a failure to hold prior session range highs as potential opportunities to initiate short-sell positions, targeting a move back to the 8-EMA. This indicates a bullish bias but with clear conditions for potential counter-trend trades. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 07 to 11 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0711july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za (Previous Post: Friday 13 June) Trading Woolworths: Breaking Down The Current Price Action + Probabilities Overall Trading Considerations for Woolworths (WHL) The current price action for Woolworths (WHL) is characterized by significant weakness across all evaluated timeframes. The model indicates a bearish sentiment, though it points to specific conditions that could signal a potential reversal or an attractive long-term entry point. Price Action Analysis: 7-Day Trend: Oversold This indicates that the price has moved sharply lower in the short term and may be due for a pause or a minor bounce. 14-Day Trend: Very Bearish This confirms the broader negative momentum over the last two weeks, suggesting that the recent selling pressure is significant and sustained. Comparison:  The "Oversold" 7-day condition exists within a "Very Bearish" 14-day trend. This suggests that while a short-term bounce is possible due to the oversold state, the prevailing trend is strongly negative. Any immediate upward movement should be viewed with caution as it could be a temporary reaction rather than a reversal of the dominant bearish trend. Potential Trading Approach: Short Term (Approximately Next 1 to 10 Trading Days): The model notes, "Aggressive Selling Recently But Long Risk Reward May Be Attractive." Approach:  The recent price action has been dominated by aggressive selling. However, for traders willing to take a contrarian view (going against the trend), the potential reward for a long position (a bet on the price rising) might be attractive compared to the risk, precisely because the stock is so beaten down. This suggests a high-risk, potentially high-reward scenario for a bounce. Medium Term (Approximately Next 2 to 4 Weeks): The model indicates, "Has Been Sold Aggressively-Look For A Continued Dip Before Minor Rebound." Approach:  The outlook for the medium term remains negative. The expectation is that the price will likely continue to fall further before staging a minor rebound. This suggests that patience is required, and traders might anticipate lower prices in the coming weeks. Long Term (Approximately Next 5 to 8 Weeks): The model states the trend is, "Persistently Weak But Monitor If Price Can Reclaim Prior Session Lows For A Bullish Reversal Trade." Approach:  The long-term trend is weak. However, the model provides a specific technical signal to watch for: a potential bullish reversal. If the price can move above the low points of previous trading sessions, it could be an early indicator that the bearish momentum is fading and a more sustained recovery could begin. Summary of Trading Considerations: Prevailing Bearish Momentum:  The dominant trend for WHL is negative across short, medium, and long-term perspectives. Short-Term Contrarian Opportunity:  The "Oversold" condition combined with an attractive risk-reward profile may tempt traders to look for a short-term bounce, though this is a high-risk strategy against the primary trend. Anticipated Further Weakness:  The medium-term outlook suggests that lower prices are likely before any meaningful rebound occurs. Conditional Bullish Reversal:  The long-term view remains weak but offers a clear signal to monitor. A reclaim of prior session lows would be the first sign of a potential bottoming process and a possible entry for a bullish reversal trade. In summary, the trading model for Woolworths (WHL)  points to a stock under significant selling pressure. The recommended approach is one of caution, either waiting for prices to dip further in the medium term or watching for a specific bullish reversal signal in the longer term before committing to a long position. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 07 to 11 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0711july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 07 to 11 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0711july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (09 April): Market Risk Index: The Weekly Reading Is Worth Noting! *Weekly Time Frame* - Current *Monthly Time Frame* - Current The indicator is a custom-built risk and sentiment index, designed to assess market risk appetite, including whether sentiment is at an extreme position (i.e. excessively bullish or excessively bearish). Components: Copper: Copper often serves as a proxy for global economic activity. A decline in copper prices could signal slowing economic growth, increasing risk. High Beta vs Low Beta: High beta stocks tend to be more volatile than low beta stocks. A widening spread between high and low beta returns might indicate increased risk aversion. Growth vs Value: Growth stocks typically outperform value stocks in bull markets. A shift towards value stocks could suggest investors are becoming more cautious. EM Currencies: Emerging market currencies can be sensitive to risk appetite. A weakening of EM currencies could signal increased risk aversion. AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar is often used as a proxy for global risk sentiment. A decline in AUD/USD could indicate increased risk aversion. Consumer Staples vs Consumer Discretionary: Consumer staples are generally considered defensive assets. A shift towards consumer staples could suggest investors are seeking safety. Semiconductors vs S&P 500: The semiconductor sector is cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. Underperformance of semiconductors relative to the broader market could signal increased risk. Russell 2000 ETF: This ETF tracks small-cap stocks, which are generally considered riskier than large-cap stocks. Underperformance of the Russell 2000 could suggest increased risk aversion. U.S. Dollar Index (Inverse): A strengthening US Dollar often signals a flight to safety, suggesting increased risk aversion.