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Research Notes For 30 June to 04 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r3004july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 30 June to 04 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r3004july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Short-Term Playbook Current State:  AGGRESSIVE BUYING UNDERWAY Key Question:  Do the highs fail to hold? If YES:  The recommended action is to Short/Sell  on failure, targeting the 8/21-EMA. If NO:  The recommended action is to wait for a pullback  to the 8/21-EMA before considering a buy. Multi-Timeframe Condition WEEKLY TIMEFRAME: OVERBOUGHT This suggests the uptrend is extended and vulnerable to a pullback or reversal. MONTHLY TIMEFRAME: APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT This indicates the long-term trend is also becoming extended, adding caution for new long positions. Dissecting the Price Action Model SHORT-TERM (1-10 Days):  Aggressive buying. WAIT for a pullback to enter, or alternatively, SHORT a failure at the highs. MEDIUM-TERM (2-4 Weeks):  Very strong move, buyers in control. Do not chase. A failure to hold the highs makes the 8-EMA a short/sell target. LONG-TERM (5-8 Weeks):  The medium-term view persists. Strong buyers, but a failure at the highs targets the 8-EMA for a short/sell. Price Action Probabilities Bullish Continuation / Breakout: 55% The most likely scenario. The underlying strength continues, pushing the price decisively above the prior highs. Bearish Failure at Resistance: 35% A significant probability. The price tests the highs but fails to break through, triggering a tactical sell-off towards the 8-EMA. Shallow Pullback / Consolidation: 10% The pair consolidates just below the highs, gathering strength before the next decisive move. Fundamental Catalysts Bullish (Tailwinds) Hawkish ECB Policy:  Higher interest rates from the European Central Bank, or signals of future hikes, make the Euro more attractive relative to the US Dollar. Strong Eurozone Data:  Better-than-expected economic data (e.g., GDP, inflation, employment) from the Eurozone can signal economic strength and boost the Euro. Bearish (Headwinds) Hawkish Fed Policy:  Higher interest rates or a 'higher for longer' stance from the US Federal Reserve makes the US Dollar more attractive, weighing on the EUR/USD. Global Risk Aversion:  During times of global uncertainty, the US Dollar often strengthens as a "safe haven" currency, which typically pushes the EUR/USD pair lower. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 30 June to 04 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r3004july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 30 June to 04 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r3004july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Let's break down those two potential buy re-entry levels for Impala Platinum based on the technical analysis. Both of these levels represent classic technical areas where traders look to enter a position during a pullback within an established uptrend. 1. The Unfilled Gap at 13457c Significance: Gaps on a price chart often act like magnets, drawing the price back to "fill" them. An unfilled gap below the current price represents a strong potential support level. The logic is that the sharp move that created the gap left behind a pocket of unfilled buy orders. A return to this level provides an opportunity for those buyers to enter and for new buyers to establish a position at a clearly defined technical point. Strategy: For a re-entry, this is a very precise level. A trader would look for the price to pull back and test the top of this gap (around 13457c). A successful test, where the price touches or slightly enters the gap and then bounces, would be a strong bullish signal. This aligns perfectly with the "Short-Term Playbook" in the infographic, where buying a pullback to a defined support level is a key strategy. 2. At or Just Below the Rising 8-Week EMA Significance: The 8-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is a key indicator for the medium-term trend. A rising 8-week EMA confirms that the stock is in a healthy uptrend. In strong trends, institutional traders and algorithms often use this moving average as a primary area to add to or initiate positions during pullbacks. Buying "at or just below" it anticipates that the price might briefly dip under the EMA to shake out weaker hands before the core trend resumes. Strategy: Unlike the static price of the gap, the 8-week EMA is dynamic and moves with the price. A trader using this strategy would wait for the price to retreat to meet this rising line. The re-entry here is based on faith in the underlying trend's strength. This approach is consistent with the infographic's "Core Thesis" which highlights being in a "constructive bullish trend." Conclusion These are two different but complementary concepts: The Gap is a static price level of support. The 8-Week EMA is a dynamic trend-following level of support. The highest-probability buy re-entry scenario would be a confluence of these two levels. If the rising 8-week EMA were to move up to intersect with the unfilled gap around 13457c, that price zone would become an exceptionally strong area of support. A pullback to such a level would likely attract significant buying interest from both price-level traders and trend-following traders, making it a powerful potential launchpad for the next move higher. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 30 June to 04 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r3004july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za 21-Week EMA In Focus As Ultra Short Term Buy Re-Entry Range For A Short Term Rebound Only! Range R685 to R700. The pullback has coincided with the retracement in gold as well as a stronger ZAR. We also discussed the consolidation last week Monday (23 June). The 8-week EMA has been breached, with the share having closed below the level by Friday. The 21-week EMA continues to slope higher, confirming the underlying bull trend. What is the next best provisional re-accumulation range? At or preferably just below the 21-week, which is in line with the previous swing lows of 14, 15 and 16 May. For ultra short term traders, this would be an opportunity to generate cash flow. Previous Post (Monday 23 June): Trading AngloGold Ashanti: Bull Trend Pausing To Consolidate Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 30 June to 04 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r3004july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 30 June to 04 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r3004july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Re-test of multi-year base breakout, looking to re-commence long term upward momentum. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 30 June to 04 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r3004july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za This report analyzes the short-term trend rating for JSE Mid & Large Cap constituents over the four weeks of June 2025. Market breadth is a key indicator of the underlying health of the market, showing how many stocks are participating in a given trend. Overall Thesis: From Sharp Pullback to Constructive Consolidation The month of June tells a clear story of a sharp, mid-month "risk-off" event that caused significant internal damage. This was followed by a period of stabilization and now, a constructive consolidation. The most recent data shows a significant decrease in bearishly trending stocks as they move into a neutral phase, suggesting the market is building a base for its next potential move. Cautionary Note: A Divergence to Watch The four-week trend in market breadth shows a market that has successfully navigated a sharp pullback and is now in a constructive consolidation phase. The rotation from "Bearish" to "Neutral" and "Bullish" is a positive sign for the underlying health of the market. However, a significant note of caution is warranted.  While the internal health of the market (breadth) is improving, the overall JSE index is potentially developing a bear flag  chart pattern. A bear flag is a bearish continuation pattern that can form after a sharp down move. This creates a technical divergence: the internals are improving, but the index-level price action is not confirming this strength. This divergence increases the risk of a "bull trap," where the recovery in breadth fails to translate into a sustained price rally at the index level. Therefore, while the internal recovery is positive, traders should remain vigilant for a potential failure and breakdown from this bear flag pattern. Week-by-Week Breakdown Week 1: End of Day - 06 June 2025 Bullish:  54 stocks (Overbought: 7, High Bullish: 12, Strong: 35) Bearish:  11 stocks (Weak: 11) Neutral:  40 stocks Analysis:  The month began in a state of robust health. The number of bullishly trending stocks (54) vastly outnumbered the bearish ones (11). This represented a strong, broad, and healthy market uptrend with widespread participation. Week 2: End of Day - 13 June 2025 Bullish:  16 stocks (Overbought: 3, High Bullish: 3, Strong: 10) Bearish:  57 stocks (Weak: 43, High Bearish: 10, Oversold: 4) Neutral:  18 stocks Analysis:  This week marked a significant and sharp deterioration  in market health. The number of bullish stocks collapsed from 54 to just 16, while bearish stocks surged from 11 to 57. This indicates a severe market pullback where sellers took firm control and breadth narrowed dramatically. Week 3: End of Day - 20 June 2025 Bullish:  26 stocks (Overbought: 3, High Bullish: 4, Strong: 19) Bearish:  37 stocks (Weak: 30, High Bearish: 6, Oversold: 1) Neutral:  42 stocks Analysis:  The market began to stabilize and find its footing. While the number of bearish stocks remained high, the "Oversold" and "High Bearish" categories started to shrink. More importantly, the number of "Neutral" stocks jumped from 18 to 42, signaling an end to the aggressive selling and the beginning of a bottoming process. Week 4: End of Day - 27 June 2025 Bullish:  35 stocks (Overbought: 2, High Bullish: 7, Strong: 26) Bearish:  20 stocks (Weak: 17, High Bearish: 3) Neutral:  49 stocks Analysis:  This week confirms a significant improvement in market health , with the key development being the rotation out of "Weak" and into "Neutral" and "Strong" categories. The number of bearish stocks has been dramatically reduced from 37 to 20, while the number of Neutral stocks has swelled to 49. This is a constructive sign that the selling pressure has abated and the market is building a strong base. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 30 June to 04 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r3004july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Summary: Ranking This ranking prioritizes sectors based on their current short-term strength and positive trend changes. Telecoms: The clear leader with 'Overbought' status, indicating the highest demand. Miners: Showing the most significant positive turnaround from long-term weakness to short-term strength. Platinum Miners & Consumer Staples: Both have improved from 'Neutral' long-term readings to 'Strong' in the short term, indicating accelerating bullish momentum. Technology: A consistent outperformer across all timeframes. Paper & Pulp: Shows a dramatic improvement from long-term bearishness to short-term neutrality, signaling a potential bottom. Banks, Insurers, Luxury Goods: All are stable and neutral, offering market-like performance without a distinct edge. Consumer Discretionary & Hospitals: Showing signs of short-term stabilization after long-term weakness. Gold Miners & Chemicals: Exhibiting a negative short-term deterioration in their trends. Coal Miners: Still weak, but showing very early signs that heavy selling pressure might be easing. Healthcare: The weakest sector, with a persistent downtrend across all timeframes. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 30 June to 04 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r3004july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 30 June to 04 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r3004july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Friday, 20 June) The JSE Top 40 Index is currently navigating a period of consolidation and potential short-term pullback following a significant rally from its low on 07 April. While the longer-term trend remains firmly upwards, recent price action and technical indicators suggest a temporary loss of momentum as the market unwinds from overbought conditions. According to pre-market data, the index's short-term trend, as indicated by the 8-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), has shifted to "DOWNWARDS" . This aligns with the observed unwinding from daily and weekly overbought levels and the appearance of distribution candles on 11 June, signaling an increase in selling pressure. The 21-day EMA is currently indicating a "SIDEWAYS"  trend, reinforcing the view of a market in consolidation. This short-term weakness is further contextualized by a 7-day trend described as "Neutral"  and a 14-day trend as "Rangebound" . The immediate outlook, expected to unfold within the next 1 to 10 trading days, points towards a "Steady Upward Trend But Weaker On Lower Time Frame." Traders are advised to look for support at or just below the 50-EMA, followed by a reclaim of this level to trigger a potential rebound. Looking at the medium-term, expected to play out over the next 2 to 4 weeks, the index is seen to be "Consolidating Within an Upward Trend." Should the 8-EMA be decisively breached, the 21-EMA is highlighted as a potential buying range. Despite the current short-term headwinds, the underlying strength of the market is evident in the longer-term moving averages. The 75-day EMA, 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), 21-week EMA, and 50-week EMA are all pointing "UPWARDS" . This suggests that the broader bullish trend remains intact. The long-term outlook, anticipated over the next 5 to 8 weeks, indicates that "Buyers In Control But Weakness On Lower Time Frame." The strategy suggests looking for a pullback to the 8 or 21-EMA as a potential "Buy Range" before the index makes its next move higher. In summary, the JSE Top 40 Index is experiencing a classic case of short-term consolidation after a strong upward move. While caution is warranted in the immediate future due to signs of weakness, the long-term bullish structure remains solid, presenting potential buying opportunities on dips for patient investors. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 30 June to 04 July > https://www.unum.capital/post/r3004july Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za JSE Gold Miners (Equally-Weighted): Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital