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- JSE Relative Sector Ratings: Here's What's Leading/Lagging
Research Notes For 16 to 20 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1620june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Here's an analysis of each JSE sector across the different timeframes, with an emphasis on strength, weakness, improvement, or deterioration, and a final summary ranking. The short term carries the most weight, followed by the medium term, then the long term. Key: Strong: Indicates outperformance relative to the Top 40. Neutral: Indicates performance in line with the Top 40. Weak: Indicates underperformance relative to the Top 40. Overbought: Suggests the sector might be due for a pullback (high demand). Oversold: Suggests the sector might be due for a bounce (low demand). High Bullish Momentum: Strong upward price movement. High Bearish Momentum: Strong downward price movement. Hierarchy of Strength (from strongest to weakest): Overbought > High Bullish Momentum/Approaching Overbought > Strong > Neutral > Weak > High Bearish Momentum/Approaching Oversold > Oversold JSE Sector Analysis by Timeframe: Technology vs Top 40 Short Term: Neutral. Medium Term: Strong. (Improvement from long term's "High Bullish Momentum/Approaching Overbought"). Long Term: High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought. Overall: This sector exhibits strong positive momentum in the long and medium term, maintaining a neutral stance in the short term. The transition from "High Bullish Momentum/Approaching Overbought" in the long term to "Strong" in the medium term suggests a continuation of outperformance. There's no drastic change from medium to short term, simply a move to "Neutral," which could be a consolidation after strong periods. Miners vs Top 40 Short Term: Weak. Medium Term: High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold. (Significant deterioration from long term's "Oversold"). Long Term: Oversold. Overall: This sector shows persistent weakness. While "Oversold" in the long term might suggest a potential bounce, the "High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold" in the medium term, and further "Weakness" in the short term, indicates continued downward pressure. The shift from "Oversold" to "High Bearish Momentum/Approaching Oversold" is a drastic negative change, highlighting deepening weakness. Banks vs Top 40 Short Term: Weak. Medium Term: Neutral. (Deterioration from long term's "Neutral"). Long Term: Neutral. Overall: This sector is consistently neutral in the long and medium term, but shows weakness in the short term. The shift from "Neutral" in the medium term to "Weak" in the short term indicates some deterioration in recent performance. Insurers vs Top 40 Short Term: Oversold. (Significant deterioration from medium term's "Neutral"). Medium Term: Neutral. (Deterioration from long term's "Neutral"). Long Term: Neutral. Overall: This sector is primarily neutral in the long and medium term, but has significantly deteriorated to "Oversold" in the short term, suggesting a potential for a near-term bounce due to low demand. The drastic change from "Neutral" in the medium term to "Oversold" in the short term is a key point. Gold Miners vs Top 40 Short Term: High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought. (Significant improvement from medium term's "Strong"). Medium Term: Strong. (Improvement from long term's "High Bullish Momentum/Approaching Overbought"). Long Term: High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought. Overall: This sector demonstrates consistent strength across all timeframes, culminating in "High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought" in the short term. The progression from "High Bullish Momentum/Approaching Overbought" in the long term to "Strong" in the medium term, and then back to "High Bullish Momentum/Approaching Overbought" in the short term, signifies robust positive momentum and increasing demand. This is a very strong sector. Platinum Miners vs Top 40 Short Term: Neutral. Medium Term: Strong. (Improvement from long term's "Neutral"). Long Term: Neutral. Overall: This sector moves from "Neutral" in the long term to "Strong" in the medium term, then back to "Neutral" in the short term. This suggests a period of outperformance in the medium term, with a return to inline performance recently. The shift from "Strong" to "Neutral" from medium to short term suggests a cooling off after a period of strength. Consumer Staples vs Top 40 Short Term: Oversold. (Significant deterioration from medium term's "Weak"). Medium Term: Weak. (Deterioration from long term's "Weak"). Long Term: Weak. Overall: This sector consistently shows weakness across all timeframes, deteriorating to "Oversold" in the short term. The consistent "Weak" readings, culminating in "Oversold," indicate persistent underperformance and low demand. Consumer Disc. vs Top 40 Short Term: Oversold. (Significant deterioration from medium term's "Weak"). Medium Term: Weak. (Deterioration from long term's "Weak"). Long Term: Weak. Overall: Similar to Consumer Staples, this sector consistently displays weakness, reaching "Oversold" in the short term. The pattern suggests ongoing underperformance and low demand. Healthcare vs Top 40 Short Term: Weak. Medium Term: Neutral. (Improvement from long term's "Weak"). Long Term: Weak. Overall: This sector is generally weak, with a brief period of "Neutral" performance in the medium term. The return to "Weak" in the short term indicates a continuation of underperformance. The improvement from "Weak" to "Neutral" in the medium term, followed by a return to "Weak" in the short term, shows a temporary positive shift that didn't hold. Hospitals vs Top 40 Short Term: Weak. Medium Term: Weak. (No change from long term's "Weak"). Long Term: Weak. Overall: This sector exhibits consistent weakness across all timeframes, with no signs of improvement. Coal Miners vs Top 40 Short Term: Weak. Medium Term: High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold. (No change from long term's "High Bearish Momentum/Approaching Oversold"). Long Term: High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold. Overall: This sector is significantly weak across all timeframes, characterized by "High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold." This indicates strong downward price movement and low demand with no signs of reversal. Telecoms vs Top 40 Short Term: Strong. (No change from medium term's "Strong"). Medium Term: Strong. (No change from long term's "Strong"). Long Term: Strong. Overall: This sector demonstrates consistent and strong outperformance across all timeframes, indicating sustained positive momentum. Paper & Pulp vs Top 40 Short Term: Weak. Medium Term: Weak. (Deterioration from long term's "Oversold"). Long Term: Oversold. Overall: While "Oversold" in the long term suggested a potential bounce, the sector has moved to "Weak" in both the medium and short term, indicating continued underperformance and an inability to recover. The shift from "Oversold" to "Weak" suggests that the potential bounce did not materialize, and the sector remains challenged. Chemicals vs Top 40 Short Term: Overbought. (Significant improvement from medium term's "High Bullish Momentum/Approaching Overbought"). Medium Term: High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought. (Significant improvement from long term's "Weak"). Long Term: Weak. Overall: This sector has shown a remarkable improvement, moving from "Weak" in the long term to "High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought" in the medium term, and finally to "Overbought" in the short term. This indicates very strong positive momentum and high demand, suggesting it might be due for a pullback. The drastic positive change from "Weak" to "High Bullish Momentum/Approaching Overbought" and then to "Overbought" is a very strong signal. Luxury Goods vs Top 40 Short Term: Weak. Medium Term: Weak. (Deterioration from long term's "Neutral"). Long Term: Neutral. Overall: This sector has moved from "Neutral" in the long term to "Weak" in the medium and short term, indicating a deterioration in performance. Summary Ranking of Sectors (from most preferred to least preferred, weighted by short-term importance): Chemicals vs Top 40: Short-term "Overbought" with strong positive momentum from medium and long term. Highest demand. Gold Miners vs Top 40: Short-term "High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought" with consistent strength across all timeframes. Telecoms vs Top 40: Consistently "Strong" across all timeframes, indicating reliable outperformance. Technology vs Top 40: Strong in long and medium term, settling to "Neutral" in the short term, still indicating good performance overall. Platinum Miners vs Top 40: "Neutral" in the short term after a "Strong" medium term, suggesting a recent cooling off but still in line with the Top 40. Banks vs Top 40: "Weak" in the short term, but "Neutral" in medium and long term, indicating a recent dip. Healthcare vs Top 40: "Weak" in the short term, with a brief "Neutral" period in the medium term, generally underperforming. Luxury Goods vs Top 40: Deteriorated from "Neutral" to "Weak" in the medium and short term, indicating recent underperformance. Insurers vs Top 40: "Oversold" in the short term after "Neutral" in medium and long term. Potential for a bounce due to low demand, but currently very weak. Paper & Pulp vs Top 40: "Weak" in the short and medium term, and previously "Oversold" in the long term, indicating persistent underperformance. Miners vs Top 40: "Weak" in the short term, and "High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold" in the medium term, showing significant downward pressure. Consumer Staples vs Top 40: Consistently "Weak," and "Oversold" in the short term, indicating consistent underperformance and low demand. Consumer Disc. vs Top 40: Consistently "Weak," and "Oversold" in the short term, indicating consistent underperformance and low demand. Hospitals vs Top 40: Consistently "Weak" across all timeframes, no signs of improvement. Coal Miners vs Top 40: "Weak" in the short term, and "High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold" in the medium and long term, signaling extreme weakness and strong downward momentum. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Breadth: Interpretation of Market Conditions
Research Notes For 16 to 20 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1620june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Key Takeaway and Implications The data clearly illustrates a substantial and swift negative shift in short-term market sentiment for JSE Mid & Large Cap stocks over the past week. What was a relatively balanced to strong market last week has transitioned into one exhibiting widespread weakness and increasing bearish momentum. While this deterioration suggests heightened risk and a prevailing negative sentiment, the emerging concentration of readings in 'Weak', 'Higher Bearish Momentum/Approaching Oversold', and especially 'Oversold' categories could present a near-term opportunity for investors. As a greater number of constituents enter these oversold conditions, they may become fundamentally undervalued, potentially setting the stage for a rebound or a tactical buying opportunity for those looking to acquire assets at a discount. Conversely, the sharp reduction in 'Overbought' and 'Strong' readings implies that any broad-based selling opportunities from an overextended market have largely diminished. Interpretation of Market Conditions This note provides a comprehensive analysis of the JSE Mid & Large Caps Short Term Trend Rating data, comparing market conditions from Friday, June 06, 2025 (representing last week's readings) to Friday, June 13, 2025 (representing this week's readings). The interpretation focuses on the shift in the distribution of constituents across various market trend categories. The hierarchy of strength, from strongest to weakest, is defined as follows: 'Overbought', 'High Bullish Momentum/Approaching Overbought', 'Strong', 'Neutral', 'Weak', 'Higher Bearish Momentum/Approaching Oversold', and 'Oversold'. It is important to note that a majority of readings closer to the 'oversold' end of this spectrum generally suggest a near-term buying opportunity, while readings closer to 'overbought' typically represent a selling opportunity. Analysis of Last Week's Readings (End of Day: Friday 06 June 2025) A total of 105 constituents, depicted a market that was generally balanced to bullish: Overbought: 7 constituents High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought: 12 constituents Strong: 35 constituents Neutral: 40 constituents Weak: 11 constituents Higher Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold: 0 constituents Oversold: 0 constituents At this point, a significant portion of the market, totaling 75 constituents (35 Strong + 40 Neutral), resided in stable or positively trending categories. The complete absence of 'Higher Bearish Momentum/Approaching Oversold' and 'Oversold' readings indicated a lack of significant downward pressure or extreme bearish sentiment. The relatively low numbers in 'Overbought' (7) and 'High Bullish Momentum' (12) suggested some strength but not an overheated market. Overall, last week's readings pointed to a market with healthy underlying breadth, not showing signs of imminent broad-based weakness or extreme conditions that would suggest immediate, widespread buying or selling opportunities. Analysis of This Week's Readings (End of Day: Friday 13 June 2025) Encompassing 108 constituents, revealed a considerable deterioration in market breadth and a distinct shift towards weakness: Overbought: 3 constituents High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought: 3 constituents Strong: 10 constituents Neutral: 18 constituents Weak: 43 constituents Higher Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold: 10 constituents Oversold: 4 constituents This week's data shows a dramatic increase in constituents exhibiting weakness. The 'Weak' category saw a surge to 43 constituents from 11. Critically, the 'Higher Bearish Momentum/Approaching Oversold' and 'Oversold' categories, which were entirely absent last week, now contain 10 and 4 constituents respectively. Conversely, the number of constituents in 'Overbought', 'High Bullish Momentum', and 'Strong' categories has sharply declined (from a combined 54 to 16). This indicates a rapid and broad-based shift in sentiment, with a significant number of stocks moving into bearish trend readings. Net Shift in Weakness/Strength To further illustrate the change, we can aggregate the categories: Last Week (June 06): Strong/Bullish Constituents (Overbought, High Bullish Momentum, Strong): 7 + 12 + 35 = 54 Weak/Bearish/Oversold Constituents (Weak, Higher Bearish Momentum, Oversold): 11 + 0 + 0 = 11 This Week (June 13): Strong/Bullish Constituents: 3 + 3 + 10 = 16 Weak/Bearish/Oversold Constituents: 43 + 10 + 4 = 57 This represents a net decrease of 38 constituents in the strong/bullish categories and a net increase of 46 constituents in the weak/bearish/oversold categories. This quantifiable shift underscores the rapid and significant deterioration in market breadth. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- 📌Research: 09 - 13 June 2025
Thank you for your interest in our research. Our aim is to convey insights that help clients: (1) Manage Risks and (2) Uncover Opportunities. Year-to-date we have published over 1000 research notes that helps clients do just that. If you've been a consumer of our research but have not traded via the Unum Capital trading desk, why not consider making us your trading services provider? To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za This page is updated daily, as and when key developments and opportunities are identified. 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VOD, REM & TRU) https://www.unum.capital/post/sxyslm Recent Opportunities For Active Trading Clients > https://www.unum.capital/post/8wkrally Archive: Year-To-Date 02 June to 06 June https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june 26 May to 30 May https://www.unum.capital/post/r2630may 19 May to 23 May https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may 12 May to 16 May https://www.unum.capital/post/research-12-16-may-2025 05 May to 09 May https://www.unum.capital/post/research-05-09-may-2025 28 April to 02 May https://www.unum.capital/post/research-28-april-02-may-2025 21 April to 25 April https://www.unum.capital/post/212504 14 April to 18 April https://www.unum.capital/post/research-14-18-april-2025 07 April to 11 April https://www.unum.capital/post/research-07-11-april-2025 31 March to 04 April https://www.unum.capital/post/research-31-march-04-april-2025 24 March to 28 March https://www.unum.capital/post/research-24-28-march-2025 17 March to 21 March https://www.unum.capital/post/research-17-21-march-2025 10 March to 14 March https://www.unum.capital/post/research-10-14-march-2025 02 January to 07 March https://www.unum.capital/post/latest-research-january-2025 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Brent Crude Oil: Medium Term Traders Gain 27%. In Line With Price Action Model Reading
Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za The move is in line with the LIVE READING (Tactical Trading Guide) at the time which looked for a buy on both the Short Term and Medium Term time frame. As per our comment on 08 April, just after the U.S market close: "Note that although the weekly structure is bearish, the short term sees the commodity trading in an oversold range which means that a rebound at or around current levels is possible." Tuesday (08 April, 22h27, U.S. Trading Session): Note that although the weekly structure is bearish, the short term sees the commodity trading in an oversold range which means that a rebound at or around current levels is possible. The current price action model reading is shown below: Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading Clicks: Sharp Downside Reversal Off Sell Range (R404 to R365); Next-Best Probabilities
Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za See circled area. Previous Post (15 May): Trading Clicks: bearish Reversal Off Sell Range: Update: Bearish reversal off sell range. Now trading 37807c vs 40500c Previous Post: Our recent buy long idea on Clicks worked out well for clients who latched onto the opportunity. Driven by a manual as well as an automated view (price action model), the share traded into the buy re-entry range (mid-point R315) which was followed by a sharp rebound to above R404 (+28%) . Scroll (further) down to view the original post. On Monday we set our sell re-entry range at 40513c to 41401c. Yesterday, the share continued it's rally, reaching a high of 40481c before retracing to test a low of 38593c. It's a pity that the share didn't trade fully into the sell re-entry range as the high was just shy of that. That's markets for you!!! Previous Post (Monday, 21 April): Click(s) Here To Take Profit If you bought Clicks in the actionable area, then you are in the money by 6000c. The share traded into the next best-probability buy range which was followed by a sharp rally. Recently, clients of Unum Capital were alerted to a trading opportunity in Clicks. The link to the original post is as follows: https://www.unum.capital/post/click-quality Our thesis at the time was driven by the appealing (pending) reward-to-risk, supported the price action model model which stated the following: Short Term (approx. 1 to 10 days): "The reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position" Medium Term (approx. 2 to 4 weeks): "Aggressive selling underway. Wait for the lower time frames to stabilize". Long Term (approx. 5 to 8 weeks): "The share has been weak, with selling pressure however, there is a probability of a small rebound" Where to from here? The share closed the last session in ' HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT ' regime. This means that it has experienced a strong rally over the short term. Where is the next (best probability) level to buy, and why? Should the price immediately retrace from current levels, the rising 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) as well as the 75-day exponential moving average (EMA) is the next best-probability re-accumulation range. The year-to-date VWAP is in a similar range. BLUE/TURQUOISE DASHED LINES ------- Where is the next (best probability) level to sell, and why? Should the price continue to immediately advance from current levels, the share is likely to face resistance (1) at or just above the prior swing highs (best probability R405 to R412) , (2) in addition, the share will likely be extended to the upside versus both it's 8-day and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMA). It is also likely to be trading in a short term overbought range. RED DASHED LINES ------- Zooming out further, R411 to R427 is an extreme range, from both a technical and fundamental valuation perspective. Previous Post (end of day, 18 March): Clicks Group: Quality Company Approaching Buy Range + Alert To Model Readings. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Two Updates: Oracle Corp & Dell Inc.
Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Last night, Oracle Corp has rallied to an all-time. In September, Dell Inc. The share rallied from $115 to $145 before retreating. Previous Post: Offshore: The Stock Reminds Me of Oracle - Thursday, 12 September 2024 Real-Time: 19h07 (South African Time) / U.S Trading Session Just over 12 months ago I presented Oracle Corp as a buy/long opportunity. Over the period, the share has proceeded to print all-time highs at $162 from the suggested entry of $117. DELL Technologies is a beneficiary of the boom in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the pullback offers an opportunity to participate in a potential new leg higher. Buy Idea Entry at $112.15 Targets: $132.55 and $152.92 Stop-loss: $90.43 Reference: Buy Oracle Corp (18 July 2023) I also re-iterated my view in January of this year as the share retraced to $106.
- Trading Discovery: Generating Cash For Short Sellers (+1000c); Two-Week Low; In Line With Model Reading
Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za The share reached our 1st sell re-entry range (+R224) which was followed by a pullback as the share reached a two-week low of 21404c today. Previous Post (Friday 06 June): Trading Discovery: Generating Cash For Short Sellers (+800c); In Line With Model Reading Update: On Wednesday morning (10:21am) at a price of 22380c, we ran the model for an assessment of the price action. The share traded just a few cents higher at 22460c and this morning reached a low of 21462c. Depending on your entry, traders are sitting on a gain of at least 800c over. Trading Discovery (Wednesday 04 June): Following Our Price Path (Higher), But In Overbought Territory (See Updated Model) Current Price Action Model Reading: (scrolls down for previous views/comments) Previous Post (26 May): Trading Discovery: Megaphone Formation + Approaching Overbought Conditions) Discovery Holdings (DSY) has previously given clients opportunities on both the buy (long) and sell (short) side. There's a chance that the share could lose short term momentum and fail to hold it's highs however, traders should also be open to the possibility of a test of the upper boundary of what appears to be a MEGAPHONE technical formation. This range is approximately between R223 and R230 - a level at which it could become extremely overbought in the short term. If it trades at that range, we should be considering a short/sell trade meaning, potentially taking a position which takes advantage of a bearish reversal from overbought conditions. Let's stay flexible & let's get ready to trade. Note: Levels subject to change as the news flow and price action develops. Last Close: 21347c Previous Post: Trading Discovery (+20%): 'We Had An Opportunity To Build A Position' DSY now higher by 20%. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading Old Mutual: Sharp Rally; Ultra Short Term Approaching Overbought
Research Notes For 16 to 20 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1620june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za The share has rallied from 960c to 1243c (+29%). Click on the image to enlarge. Old Mutual is a share we discussed on Sunday 06 April, preparing clients for the opportunity to buy into the lows on Monday 07 April. Below is an extract from the note 'APRIL 2025: VOLATILITY EQUALS OPPORTUNITY'. PREVIOUS POST (SUNDAY 06 APRIL): 'APRIL 2025: VOLATILITY EQUALS OPPORTUNITY'. Talking Points: Macro Developments Currently Driving Sentiment/Outlooks What We Know Valuation Volatility Equals Opportunity Where Is The Bottom? / Timing Macro Developments Currently Driving Sentiment/Outlooks | This note runs the risk of communicating items you may already be familiar with. For example, you will be aware that global financial markets are under pressure. You will be aware that the trade war via tariffs are one of, if not the main driver of the decline in risk assets. You will also be aware that volatility is high and that most risk assets have sold off. The aforementioned, are some of the negative factors that are at play. What We Know | As analysts and traders, we will never have all of the information at hand in order to make a decision. In some cases, we will have 55% of the information while in other case, will have 78% of the information etc. What we do know is that lower prices are presenting us with opportunities to (1) be active and take advantage of volatility and both the buy (long) and sell (short) side and (2) Take advantage of lower prices to build medium to long term portfolios (both U.S and global). What we also recognize is that at an index level, the All Share and Top 40 indices are slightly off their long term highs, but underneath the surface there has been some have been businesses that have seen their share prices decline significantly over several weeks and months. Valuation | In the short term, valuation isn't a very good timing tool however, over the long term, it does add value and can help traders and investors accumulate pieces of businesses that have the ability to 're-rate' over several months and years. While it is a crude way of measuring value, it does help us identify potentially cheap stocks (to buy) or expensive ones (to sell). A quick screen will help to uncover potential opportunities. Take Absa , for example. At Friday's close the share traded on a price-to-earnings ratio of 6x , with a dividend yield of 8% . It also sported a price-to-book value of 0.82 . SA industrial group Bidvest's price-to-book ratio is at 1.98x , which is the lowest since October 2020. Old Mutual trades on 6 times it's trailing earnings, with a dividend yield of 7.6% . Cyclical share Sappi trades on a 4 price-to-earnings ratio and a 7.2% dividend yield . This is a non-comprehensive list and merely just examples of shares leaning toward fundamental value. Volatility Equals Opportunity | The spike in volatility is presenting traders and long term investors with opportunities to smartly allocate capital to take advantage of falling prices . Where is The Bottom? / Timing The Market | With prices moving at a rapid pace, levels have and are being breached with new support and resistance zone being tested. In some case, support is taken out and reclaimed, creating an opportunity for the fast-fingered trader to generate cash. I'll be the first to admit that I don't know where the exact bottom is, however, I'll be monitoring real-time developments in price action in an attempt to ascertain whether the momentum is slowing down or accelerating as well as what the price action is signaling. Bottom Line | The next few days and weeks may present an opportunity gradually phase in positions i.e. rand or dollar-cost average into a medium to long term portfolio. The current sell-off represents some businesses going 'on sale', with prices that may offer value for a 'limited period only'. Others might have further to fall, which will offer opportunities at a later stage. Note: With prices moving fast, it might be that not all ideas/opportunity will be communicated in written format via the Unum Capital website. To avoid missing opportunities, open an account and connect directly with our traders on the desk. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading USD/ZAR: Short Term Buying Interest
Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post: USD/ZAR: Reward-To-Risk Becoming Attractive For A Small Buy/Long Position This is a further on the previous post which considered the potential for a small rebound. We saw this occur as the pair traded from R18.20 to R18.46. As also previously noted, the level down to APPROXIMATELY R17.99 was a key level of interest. Previous Post (06 May) USD/ZAR: Approaching Oversold + Probability of a Small Rebound Please see the price action model + the chart below. {Chart: Full Screen} The slide below is from our research report 'The Sum of the Charts' for Monday, 05 May 2025. Previous Post (Monday, 05 May): The Rand Has Advanced In Line With The Model Reading In 07 April, we published a note, highlighting the poor buy/long reward-to-risk with the best probability for the price action model over the subsequent 2 to 4 weeks being a consolidation or minor retracement. We have since seen the pair retrace sharply, from R19.38 to R18.26. Previous Post: USD/ZAR: Ultra Short Term Sees Poor Buy/Long Reward-To-Risk Current price action model reading + updated chart. We saw the share temporarily hold the the R18.23 to R18.36 zone before trading lower, then reclaiming it for a rally to the current multi-week highs nears R19.44. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading Nasdaq 100: (QQQ ETF)
Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading AngloGold Ashanti
Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Tencent: Breaking Down The Price Action
Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Overall Trading Considerations Here's a breakdown of the current price action: The 7-day trend is indicated as "Neutral," while the 14-day trend is "Rangebound." Comparison: Both the short-term (7-day) and slightly longer short-term (14-day) trends indicate a lack of clear directional momentum ("Neutral" and "Rangebound" respectively). This suggests that Tencent's price is currently consolidating rather than exhibiting a strong trend in either direction across these timeframes. The "Rangebound" 14-day trend reinforces the "Neutral" 7-day trend, indicating that the recent sideways movement is part of a broader period of consolidation. Potential Trading Approach for Tencent: Short Term (Approximately Next 1 to 10 Trading Days): The model notes, "Bullish Regime But Currently Lacks Directional Bias Needs Break of Range To Trigger New Trend." Approach : While the overall regime is bullish, the short-term lacks a clear directional bias. The recommended approach is to wait for a clear break out of the current range to trigger a new trend. This suggests a patient strategy, waiting for confirmation of a new direction before entering trades. Medium Term (Approximately Next 2 to 4 Weeks): The model indicates "Consolidating Within an Upward Trend. If The 8-EMA Has Been Breached, Use The 21-EMA As a Potential Buy Range." Approach: The medium term suggests consolidation within an upward trend. If the 8-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has been breached, the 21-EMA is identified as a potential buy range. This implies a "buy the dip" strategy within a generally upward but consolidating medium-term trend. Long Term (Approximately Next 5 to 8 Weeks): The model states, "Buyers In Control But Weakness On Lower Time Frame-Look For Pullback To 8 or 21-EMA (Buy Range) Before Next Move Higher." Approach: The long-term perspective indicates that buyers are in control, but there might be weakness on lower timeframes. The recommended approach is to look for a pullback to the 8 or 21-EMA to enter a buying range before the next move higher. This suggests a "buy the dip" strategy within an overall bullish long-term trend, similar to the short-term approach but applied to a longer timeframe. Overall Trading Considerations for Tencent: Consistent consolidation: Both short and slightly longer short-term trends indicate consolidation, suggesting a lack of strong directional movement. Short-term patience: Despite a bullish regime, the model advises waiting for a clear range breakout to trigger new trends. Medium-term buy the dip: The medium term reinforces the "buy the dip" strategy within an upward but consolidating trend. Long-term buy the dip: The long term shows buyers in control but suggests looking for pullbacks as buying opportunities, rather than chasing the price. In summary, for Tencent, the current view is largely one of consolidation across short to medium terms, with a long-term bullish outlook where buyers are in control but pullbacks are opportunities. Short-term traders should be patient and wait for clear breakouts, while medium and long-term traders should consider "buy the dip" strategies around key EMA levels. The model points to a general upward trend for the price of Tencent, but with periods of consolidation and opportunities for buying on pullbacks.












