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- Trading Sasol: Pullback To 8-EMA Followed By Upside Follow-Through + Updated Model Reading
Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za The share is in line with the model reading which stated that the 8/21-day EMA range was a level to which the share could retrace into before potentially moving higher. Since then we saw the price consolidate, re-test the 8-day EMA then rally to a multi-month high today (Tuesday, 10 June). the 200-day simple moving average and 50-week exponential moving average is a possible resistance range in the ultra short term. Above that R107 to R112 is a broader selling/resistance range while a pullback into R76 to R79 could offer another re-accumulation range. Previous Post (26 May) How To Trade Sasol, and Recent Opportunities via the Price Action Model The share has had a strong rebound off the 09 April lows (5301c) to it's recent high of 8662c. In the process, the 50-day EMA was reclaimed with strong candle structure reflecting strong buying interest. The current two-day retracement (from +8600c to 7900c) appears to be the start of a re-test of the 50-day exponential moving average (which has now started to turn up). For active traders looking for a buy re-entry range, the 50-day EMA (at or just below) is a provisional range. We are marking 6900c to 7300c for now. The 200-day SMA continues to trend down, which could act as a temporary resistance range. Recent Opportunities: Time-stamped examples from the price action model. INTO THE LOWS (04 April): "Aggressive selling underway, however the buy/long reward-to-risk may be attractive". INTO THE HIGHS (20 & 21 May): "Aggressive buying underway but overbought on the lower time frames. Expect a consolidation or a minor retracement". Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- +60 Shares Commentary (incl. DCP, MRP & SBK)
Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Tuesday 10 June. These are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Long Term (approximately 5 to 8 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Global Ideas: iShares U.S Telecommunications ETF
Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Last: $28.79 Stop-loss: $25.70 Target: $33.00 The iShares U.S. Telecommunications ETF (IYZ) is an exchange-traded fund that aims to replicate the performance of an index comprised of U.S. equities within the telecommunications secto r. Why IYZ might be considered: For investors seeking concentrated exposure to the U.S. telecommunications sector. To express a specific sector view on the domestic telecom industry. To gain access to companies that are the backbone of connectivity and are involved in ongoing digital transformation. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading US30 / Dow Jones Industrial Average
Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Here's a breakdown of the current price action: The 7-day trend is indicated as "Strong," while the 14-day trend is "Bullish." Comparison: Both the short-term (7-day) and slightly longer short-term (14-day) trends indicate upward momentum ("Strong" and "Bullish" respectively). This suggests a consistent buying pressure across these timeframes. The "Bullish" 14-day trend reinforces the "Strong" 7-day trend, indicating that the recent strength is part of a broader upward movement. Potential Trading Approach: Short Term (Approximately Next 1 to 10 Trading Days) : The model notes, "In or Commencing Upward Trend However Strongly Consider The Potential Failure To Hold Prior Session Range Highs Which Will Create A Tactical Short-Sell Opportunity." Approach: While the trend is upward, strongly consider the potential for a failure to hold prior session range highs. Such a failure would create a tactical short-sell opportunity. Medium Term (Approximately Next 2 to 4 Weeks): The model indicates "In or Commencing Upward Trend However Strongly Consider The Potential Failure To Hold Prior Session Range Highs Which Will Create A Tactical Short-Sell Opportunity." Approach: Similar to the short term, the medium-term outlook suggests an upward trend, but with a strong caution about potential failures to hold prior session range highs, which would present a tactical short-sell opportunity. Long Term (Approximately Next 5 to 8 Weeks): The model states, "In or Commencing Upward Trend However Strongly Consider The Potential Failure To Hold Prior Session Range Highs Which Will Create A Tactical Short-Sell Opportunity." Approach: The long-term perspective also shows an upward trend, but with the same strong caveat about potential failures to hold prior session range highs, leading to tactical short-sell opportunities. Overall Trading Considerations: Consistent bullish momentum: Both short and slightly longer short-term trends are bullish, supporting upward price action. Short-term caution: Despite the buying pressure, the model advises against chasing and suggests looking for short-sell entries on weakness relative to the prior session's high. Medium-term bullish reversal: The medium term reinforces the bullish sentiment following a consolidation. Long-term breakout with a caveat: The long term shows a breakout, but highlights the importance of holding prior session highs to avoid a retest of the breakout level. In summary , for US30, the current view is bullish across short to medium terms, with a long-term bullish sentiment following a breakout. However, short-term traders should be cautious of potential overshoots and failures at prior session highs for tactical short opportunities. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading Pick n Pay: Stay Ready For A Potential Bullish Reversal Candle
Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Here's a breakdown of the current price action: The 7-day trend is indicated as "High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold," while the 14-day trend is "Bearish." Comparison : Both the short-term ( 7-day ) and slightly longer short-term ( 14-day ) trends indicate downward momentum ("High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold" and "Bearish" respectively). This suggests consistent selling pressure across these timeframes, with the 7-day trend indicating an approaching oversold condition. The "Bearish" 14-day trend reinforces the "High Bearish Momentum" 7-day trend , indicating that the recent weakness is part of a broader downward movement. Potential Trading Approach: Short Term (Approximately Next 1 to 10 Trading Days): The model notes, "Aggressive Selling Wait For Lower Time Frames To Stabilize." Approach: While there is aggressive selling, it is advised to wait for lower time frames to stabilize before making a move. This suggests caution and patience until the selling pressure subsides or shows signs of exhaustion on a shorter timeframe. Medium Term (Approximately Next 2 to 4 Weeks): The model indicates "Persistently Weak But Monitor If Price Can Reclaim Prior Session Lows For A Bullish Reversal Trade." Approach: The medium term suggests persistent weakness. However, it advises monitoring if the price can reclaim prior session lows, which could signal a bullish reversal. This implies a potential shift in momentum if certain conditions are met. Long Term (Approximately Next 5 to 8 Weeks): The model states, "Very Weak Wait Until It Stabilizes On The Lower Time Frame." Approach: The long-term perspective indicates significant weakness. It strongly advises waiting until the price stabilizes on a lower time frame before considering any action. This reinforces a cautious, wait-and-see approach due to the pronounced bearishness. Overall Trading Considerations: Consistent bearish momentum: Both short and slightly longer short-term trends are bearish, supporting downward price action, with the 7-day trend approaching oversold levels. Short-term caution: Despite the selling pressure, the model advises waiting for lower timeframes to stabilize before engaging. Medium-term potential for reversal: The medium term reinforces the weakness but highlights the possibility of a bullish reversal if prior session lows are reclaimed. Long-term severe weakness: The long term shows very significant weakness and strongly suggests waiting for stabilization on a lower timeframe. In summary , for PIK, the current view is bearish across short to long terms, with immediate aggressive selling and persistent weakness. However, there's a potential for a bullish reversal in the medium term if specific conditions are met. Long-term traders should exercise extreme caution and wait for clear signs of stabilization. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading Netcare: Short Term Traders, The Rebound (+2.5%) Is In Line With The Price Action Model Reading
Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Published Monday After Market Close) +60 Shares Commentary (incl. CLS, VAL & WHL) Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Monday 09 June. These are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Long Term (approximately 5 to 8 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading Reinet Investments: A Familiar Consolidation
Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za In February at R474, we discussed RNI, highlighting a massive base while also stating that the share has room to run. The share recently crossed above R500 and has developed a consolidation below the highs which appears similar to the one seen in 2023 (see yellow circled area). A break above resistance opens the upper boundary of the channel (~R550) as a target. Amidst today's red, RNI, with it's relative strength caught my attention: Massive multi-month base, with a short term bull flag. Not extended, room to run. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Silver: Money Flows + Analysis of Current Price Action
Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Money Flow at multi-month highs. Here's a breakdown of the current price action: The 7-day trend is indicated as "High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought," while the 14-day trend is "Very Bullish." Comparison: Both the short-term ( 7-day ) and slightly longer short-term ( 14-day ) trends indicate upward momentum ("High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought" and "Very Bullish" respectively). This suggests a consistent buying pressure across these timeframes. The "Very Bullish" 14-day trend reinforces the "High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought" 7-day trend , indicating that the recent strength is part of a broader upward movement. Potential Trading Approach: Short Term (Approximately Next 1 to 10 Trading Days): The model notes, "Aggressive Buying Wait For Pullback To Enter Next-Alternatively If The Highs Fail To Hold Then Short Back To The 8 Or 21-EMA." Approach: While there is aggressive buying, the recommendation is to wait for a pullback before entering. Alternatively, if the highs fail to hold, consider shorting back to the 8 or 21-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Medium Term (Approximately Next 2 to 4 Weeks): The model indicates "Aggressive Buying But Do Not Chase-Look For Overshoot or Failure To Hold Prior Session Range Highs To Short-Sell Back To The 8-EMA." Approach: The medium term suggests aggressive buying, but cautions against chasing the price. Instead, look for potential short-sell opportunities if the price overshoots or fails to hold above the prior session's high, targeting a move back down to the 8-period EMA. Long Term (Approximately Next 5 to 8 Weeks): The model states, "Has Resumed A Bull Move In A Strong Upward Trend." Approach: The long-term perspective indicates that SPOT SILVER has resumed a strong upward trend. This suggests a continued bullish bias over the next 5 to 8 weeks. Overall Trading Considerations: Consistent bullish momentum: Both short and slightly longer short-term trends are bullish, supporting upward price action. Short-term caution: Despite the buying pressure, the model advises against chasing and suggests looking for short-sell entries on weakness relative to the prior session's high or waiting for a pullback. Medium-term aggressive buying with a caveat: The medium term reinforces aggressive buying, but highlights the importance of not chasing and considering short-sell opportunities on overshoots or failures at prior session highs. Long-term strong upward trend: The long term clearly indicates a resumed bull move in a strong upward trend. In summary the current view is bullish across all timeframes, with a long-term strong upward trend. However, short-term and medium-term traders should be cautious of potential overshoots and failures at prior session highs for tactical short opportunities or wait for pullbacks for long entrie s. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Gold: Money Flows Are Decelerating
Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Saturday 07 June): Trading Spot Gold: Breaking Down The Current Price Action Here's a breakdown of the current price action: The 7-day trend is indicated as "Neutral," while the 14-day trend is "Rangebound." Comparison : Both the short-term (7-day) and slightly longer short-term (14-day) trends suggest a lack of clear directional momentum, with the 7-day being "Neutral" and the 14-day being "Rangebound." This indicates a period of consolidation or indecision in the market. Potential Trading Approach: Short Term (Approximately Next 1 to 10 Trading Days): The model notes, "The Share Has Been Weak, With Selling Pressure However There is a Probability of a Small Rebound." Approach : While there has been recent weakness and selling pressure, there's a noted probability of a small rebound. Traders might look for opportunities to fade short-term strength or confirm the rebound before entering long, being mindful of the underlying weakness. Medium Term (Approximately Next 2 to 4 Weeks): The model indicates "no reading available." Approach : Without a specific reading for the medium term, traders should rely on the confirmed short-term and long-term trends, or wait for more data to emerge before forming a medium-term bias. Long Term (Approximately Next 5 to 8 Weeks): The model states, "Near Overbought But Upward Momentum Is Slowing-Potential Short Candidate-If Range Highs Don't Hold Then Look To Short Using The 8-EMA As A Target Range." Approach : The long-term perspective suggests that while the asset is near overbought, upward momentum is slowing. This presents a potential short candidate, especially if range highs are not held. A short position could target the 8-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Overall Trading Considerations: Conflicting signals: The short-term trends ("Neutral" and "Rangebound") suggest indecision, while the long-term indicates slowing upward momentum and potential for a short. Short-term rebound potential: Despite overall weakness, there's a possibility of a small short-term rebound. Long-term short opportunity: The long-term outlook points to a potential short-selling opportunity if range highs fail to hold, with the 8-EMA as a target. In summary , the current view is mixed, with short-term indecision, a potential for a small rebound, and a long-term bearish bias if key resistance levels are not maintained. Long-term traders should be cautious of the slowing upward momentum and consider short opportunities if range highs are not held. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Market Risk Index: Trend In Short Term Sentiment
Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (09 April): Market Risk Index: The Weekly Reading Is Worth Noting! *Weekly Time Frame* - Current *Monthly Time Frame* - Current The indicator is a custom-built risk and sentiment index, designed to assess market risk appetite, including whether sentiment is at an extreme position (i.e. excessively bullish or excessively bearish). Components: Copper: Copper often serves as a proxy for global economic activity. A decline in copper prices could signal slowing economic growth, increasing risk. High Beta vs Low Beta: High beta stocks tend to be more volatile than low beta stocks. A widening spread between high and low beta returns might indicate increased risk aversion. Growth vs Value: Growth stocks typically outperform value stocks in bull markets. A shift towards value stocks could suggest investors are becoming more cautious. EM Currencies: Emerging market currencies can be sensitive to risk appetite. A weakening of EM currencies could signal increased risk aversion. AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar is often used as a proxy for global risk sentiment. A decline in AUD/USD could indicate increased risk aversion. Consumer Staples vs Consumer Discretionary: Consumer staples are generally considered defensive assets. A shift towards consumer staples could suggest investors are seeking safety. Semiconductors vs S&P 500: The semiconductor sector is cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. Underperformance of semiconductors relative to the broader market could signal increased risk. Russell 2000 ETF: This ETF tracks small-cap stocks, which are generally considered riskier than large-cap stocks. Underperformance of the Russell 2000 could suggest increased risk aversion. U.S. Dollar Index (Inverse): A strengthening US Dollar often signals a flight to safety, suggesting increased risk aversion.
- +60 Shares Commentary (incl. CLS, VAL & WHL)
Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Monday 09 June. These are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Long Term (approximately 5 to 8 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- China ETFs Re-Emerging Strength: 5 out of 7 Point East
Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za One of our technical scans as of 17h31 (South African Time): Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital










