Search this site

Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (09 February): Potential base formation which could also be seen as the development of an inverse head and shoulder pattern. Reasons to Consider URA High Growth Potential Uranium will likely play a key role in the global energy transition. Forecasts suggest that reactor demand could rise from an estimated 65,650 metric tonnes in 2023 to nearly 130,000 in 2040.1 Emerging Energy Opportunity Nuclear energy is a dependable method for generating clean electricity, emitting zero direct emissions during operations.2 As governments pledge to reduce fossil fuel reliance, nuclear could be a viable bridge while more renewable capacity is built. ETF Efficiency In a single trade, URA delivers efficient access to a basket of companies involved in mining uranium and producing nuclear components. ETF Summary The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) provides investors access to a broad range of companies involved in uranium mining and the production of nuclear components, including those in extraction, refining, exploration, or manufacturing of equipment for the uranium and nuclear industries. AI-Assisted Insights Several factors are driving investment in uranium:   Growing demand for clean energy: Nuclear power is a reliable, low-carbon energy source that can help meet global climate goals. As countries seek to decarbonize their energy sectors, nuclear power is becoming an increasingly attractive option. Geopolitical considerations: The war in Ukraine has highlighted the need for energy security and diversification. Uranium is a strategic commodity, and investors are increasingly interested in securing supplies of this critical resource.   Supply constraints: Uranium production has been relatively flat in recent years, while demand is expected to grow. This could lead to supply shortages and higher prices in the future. Technological advancements: New technologies, such as small modular reactors (SMRs), are making nuclear power more affordable and accessible. This could lead to a resurgence in nuclear power construction and increased demand for uranium.   Industry consolidation: The uranium industry is consolidating, with larger companies acquiring smaller ones. This could lead to improved efficiency and profitability for the sector. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Below is an extract from our 06 April note (Volatility Equals Opportunity). At the time, Bidvest gave clients the opportunity to accumulate between R202 and R212. Now Trading at R250! Bidvest Current Chart Reflecting An Ascending Triangle Formation With A Target of 26900c. Temporary Failure/Stop-loss below 24200c. Previous Post (Thursday 29 May): Bidvest Group: Strong/Bullish + Technical Probabilities Over 3x Time Frames Here's a breakdown of the price action for BIDVEST: The 7-day trend  is indicated as "Strong." The 14-day trend  is "Bullish." Comparison: Both the short-term ( 7-day ) and slightly longer short-term ( 14-day ) trends indicate bullish momentum. The "Strong" reading on the 7-day  chart suggests significant buying pressure in the very recent period, which aligns with the broader "Bullish" sentiment over the past two weeks. This suggests a reinforcing upward trend across these shorter timeframes. Potential Trading Approach for Bidvest: Given these readings, a trader might approach Bidvest with the following considerations: Short Term (Approximately Next 1 to 10 Trading Days):  The model notes, "In or Commencing Upward Trend However Strongly Consider The Potential Failure To Hold Prior Session Range Highs Which Will Create A Tactical Short-Sell Opportunity." Approach: Acknowledge the ongoing upward trend. Be mindful of potential short-term pullbacks if the price fails to sustain above prior session highs, which could present tactical short opportunities. Medium Term (Approximately Next 2 to 4 Weeks):  The model indicates "Attempting A Bullish Reversal Following A Consolidation Phase." Approach: The medium-term view suggests that the current upward movement is likely a bullish reversal following a period of consolidation. This reinforces the bullish sentiment seen in the 7  and 14-day  trends and suggests potential for continued upward movement. Long Term (Approximately Next 5 to 8 Weeks):  The model states, "Recently Advanced From A Sideways Consolidation. If It Doesn't Hold Prior Session Highs Then Consider Potential For Retracement To Retest The Range Breakout." Approach: The long-term perspective indicates a breakout from a sideways consolidation. While the immediate trend is upward, failure to hold prior session highs could lead to a retracement back to test the breakout level. This suggests being bullish but also aware of potential pullbacks in the longer term. Overall Trading Considerations for Bidvest: Reinforcing bullish momentum: The "Strong" 7-day  trend aligning with the "Bullish" 14-day  trend and the "Attempting A Bullish Reversal" in the medium term suggests a generally positive outlook. Short-term caution: Be aware of potential tactical short opportunities if prior session highs are not maintained. Long-term perspective: The breakout from consolidation is bullish, but watch for potential retracements if short-term support levels fail. In summary, for Bidvest, the current view is bullish across the short to medium term, with a long-term outlook that is also bullish following a consolidation breakout, although traders should be aware of potential retracements. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Over the 14 months, since publication of our view, the commodity has appreciated by 32%, reaching a multi-year high today. We also discussed the metal earlier in this year (February): The link is as follows: https://www.unum.capital/post/plattwoyh The current price action model reading is shown below (last price around $1201) Previous Post: Does Platinum Have A 'Silver Lining'? Wednesday, 03 April 2024 Publication Time: 11h45am [Reading Time: 1 Minute] Does Platinum Have A 'Silver Lining'? Does Platinum Look Like Silver To You? When?, Where? Before Silver's recent advance. We've seen the pullback. We are seeing a consolidation. We are seeing improving candle structure. We are seeing a reclaim of the short and medium term moving averages. Some precious metals have run up. Other precious metals are coming together, starting to act well. On a multi-year basis, commodities have lagged. In 2024, Platinum is expected to record a deficit. Patterns don't repeat, but they can rhyme. Silver Daily Chart Platinum Daily Chart (XPTUSD) To trade, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Tuesday 15 April): IMP Multi-Time Frame Regime Reading: IMP Price Action Model Reading: IMP Daily Chart, with moving averages: Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The share has rebounded sharply, with today's high being 30% above the buy range of 5800c to 6000c. The price action model reading as at the time of analysis is as follows: Here's a breakdown of the current price action: The 7-day trend is indicated as "High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought," while the 14-day trend is "Bullish." Comparison: Both the short-term (7-day) and slightly longer short-term (14-day) trends indicate upward momentum ("High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought" and "Bullish" respectively). This suggests a consistent buying pressure across these timeframes. The "Bullish" 14-day trend reinforces the "High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought" 7-day trend, indicating that the recent strength is part of a broader upward movement. Potential Trading Approach for FSR: Short Term  (Approximately Next 1 to 10 Trading Days): The model notes, "Attempting To Advance Whilst In A Bullish Regime-If It Pulls Back Use The Prior Session Close or 8-EMA As An Accumulation Zone." Approach : While the stock is attempting to advance in a bullish regime, if it pulls back, use the prior session's close or the 8-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as an accumulation zone. Medium Term  (Approximately Next 2 to 4 Weeks): The model indicates "In or Commencing Upward Trend However Strongly Consider The Potential Failure To Hold Prior Session Range Highs Which Will Create A Tactical Short-Sell Opportunity." Approach : The medium term suggests that the stock is in or commencing an upward trend. However, strongly consider the potential for failure to hold prior session range highs, as this would create a tactical short-sell opportunity. Long Term  (Approximately Next 5 to 8 Weeks): The model states, "In or Commencing Upward Trend However Strongly Consider The Potential Failure To Hold Prior Session Range Highs Which Will Create A Tactical Short-Sell Opportunity." Approach : The long-term perspective also indicates that the stock is in or commencing an upward trend. Similar to the medium term, it's crucial to strongly consider the potential for failure to hold prior session range highs, as this would create a tactical short-sell opportunity. Overall Trading Considerations for FSR: Consistent bullish momentum: Both short and slightly longer short-term trends are bullish, supporting upward price action. Short-term caution: Despite the buying pressure, the model advises using pullbacks to the prior session's close or 8-EMA as accumulation zones. Medium-term and Long-term caution: Both the medium and long-term perspectives highlight a significant caution: the potential failure to hold prior session range highs, which would create a tactical short-sell opportunity. In summary , for FSR, the current view is bullish across short to long terms, with strong momentum in the short term. However, traders should be acutely aware of the potential for failure to hold prior session range highs, as this is identified as a key trigger for tactical short-sell opportunities across all timeframes beyond the very short term. Previous Post: Actionable Areas: FirsrRand (Published Saturday 05 April for Monday 07 April) Original Post: https://www.unum.capital/post/fsraction FirstRand (FSR) is down 29% from it's Sept-2024 peak, with the share trading near it's June lows. It's not inconceivable that the share could trade down at the 5800c to 6000c range , which is a medium term support range. At current levels, oversold conditions are already present which reflects aggressive selling pressure however, also raises the probability of an ultra short term rebound . Last close: 6293c FSR Daily Chart as of the close on Friday 04 April Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za We discussed EXX on 28 April, looking at R146 to R148 as a provisional buy range. The share traded into this range and slightly below that (giving traders an opportunity to re-accumulate). We are now seeing a test of the downward trend with a potential break. As discussed on 28 April. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   Further Update: The ETF reached a high of $49.75 which was just 25 cents shy of the second target of $50. Previous Post (21 May): Global X Silver Miners ETF: Bull Flag A break above $42.50 targets $47.00 and $50.00 Stop-loss $37.60 Previous Post (17 April): Offshore: Wheaton Precious Metals - Target Exceeded The surge in precious metals has supported our trade idea on Wheaton Precious Metals which is higher by 40% over the 7 months . To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Trade Alert: Wheaton Precious Metals - Friday, 13 September 2024 Offshore Ticker: WPM Pre-Market: U.S Trading Session S/African Time: 15h09 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Our ultra short term idea was a buy into the R660/675 range. The share traded down to R660, which was followed by a strong rebound to Friday's high of R769. Previous Post (Monday, 02 June): Valterra Platinum: Unwinding From Overbought (R785 to R700) + Next-Best Actionable Areas The price action model alerted us to overbought conditions with the short term reading warning traders NOT to chase/chase into the highs. Watch R660 to R675 as a potential short term re-entry range (subject to change as the price action and news flow develops!) Previous Post (Friday 23 May, Close of Trade):Trading Anglo American Platinum: Bullish Reversal For Long Term Traders Current Price Action Model Reading: A.I Interpretation of the above price action model: The 14-day trend is explicitly labeled "Very Bullish," which is a strong indicator of upward momentum. Furthermore, the short-term expectation suggests "Very Strong Move Buyers In Control." While it cautions against chasing the price if it fails to hold the highs, the underlying sentiment points towards continued buying pressure in the near term. Looking at the longer-term perspectives reinforces this bullish inclination. The medium-term outlook describes "Aggressive Buying," and the long-term anticipates a "Strong Attempt At A Bullish Reversal Following A Consolidation Phase." These descriptions suggest that despite potential short-term pullbacks, the broader expectation is for the price to move upwards. In summary, the analysis for Anglo American Platinum presents a predominantly bullish outlook across short, medium, and long-term timeframes, supported by indicators of strong buying interest and expectations of a bullish reversal. Previous Post (16 April) Previous Post (Sunday 12 January): Anglo American Platinum: Technical Improvement + Potential Change of Trend Analyst's Price Action Model Q: What is the current 7-Day Trend for Anglo American Platinum? A:  The 7-Day Trend is Strong. Q: What is the current 14-Day Trend for Anglo American Platinum? A:  The 14-Day Trend is Bullish. Q: What is the short-term price action reading for Anglo American Platinum? A:   It is attempting to advance while in a bullish regime. Use the prior session close or 8-EMA as an accumulation zone. Q: What is the medium-term price action reading for Anglo American Platinum? A:  It is attempting a bullish reversal following a consolidation phase. Q: What is the long-term price action reading for Anglo American Platinum? A:  It is attempting a rebound following a downward trend. It may consolidate further before continuing higher. Overall, the price action model suggests that Anglo American Platinum is currently in a bullish trend with a potential for further upside in the medium and potential for a bullish reversal in the long term. AMS Daily Chart Previous Buy Idea: 10 June at R576 (now R200 higher at R776) Previous Post: Anglo American Platinum: Long Term Charts & New Lows - Wednesday, 11 September 2024 • PRE-MARKET Ticker: AMS I'm old enough to remember when Anglo American Platinum traded above R2100 per share. Yes, there was a time when platinum shares were untouchable and when selling them was a no-no. Fast forward close to 3 years later and no-one wants to touch them again (remember 2015 - that's a story for another day). Here at Unum Capital we produce research that considers multiple time frames, from daily to weekly to monthly. While other consider monthly charts irrelevant, for us it is a valuable tool in assess reward-to-risks, especially from a portfolio perspective. Long-time subscribers of my research may recall Anglo American Platinum trading above R2100 per shares. Some may also recall my view to use the multi-year highs to reduce long term portfolio exposure. The time-stamped chart (Saturday 20 March 2021 for Monday 22 March) is shown below Fast forward 3.5 years later and AMS has gone from R2115 at the time to R570 (it did trade as low as R558 in recent months). After yesterday's market close, Anglo American announced that it would be conducting a bookbuild, offering 13 million AMS shares. This will no doubt put pressure on the already depressed AMS share and is likely to see it trade at fresh multi-year lows. Whilst we don't know what the extent of the selling will be, the R480 to R425 range is the previous swing lows which also coincides with the previous breakout. There will another opportunity to buy, but for now we watch and watch until the dust settles. For now, here's a sneak peek of my zoomed out (flash) view: Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za UPDATE: Since publication of both views Quilter Plc has gained +83% (over 18 months) - scroll down for the original chart Coronation Fund Managers has gained +29% (over 16 months) - scroll down for the original chart The gap in outperformance has created a potential opportunity for a pair, long CML, short QLT. Quilter Plc (QLT) - Updated Chart Coronation Fund Managers (CML)  - Updated Chart Ratio: CML vs QLT The original charts (time-stamped) are shown below: Quilter Plc (QLT) Coronation Fund Managers (CML) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Here's a breakdown of the current price action: The 7-day trend is indicated as "Neutral," while the 14-day trend is "Rangebound." Comparison : Both the short-term (7-day) and slightly longer short-term (14-day) trends suggest a lack of clear directional momentum, with the 7-day being "Neutral" and the 14-day being "Rangebound." This indicates a period of consolidation or indecision in the market. Potential Trading Approach: Short Term (Approximately Next 1 to 10 Trading Days):  The model notes, "The Share Has Been Weak, With Selling Pressure However There is a Probability of a Small Rebound." Approach : While there has been recent weakness and selling pressure, there's a noted probability of a small rebound. Traders might look for opportunities to fade short-term strength or confirm the rebound before entering long, being mindful of the underlying weakness. Medium Term (Approximately Next 2 to 4 Weeks):  The model indicates "no reading available." Approach : Without a specific reading for the medium term, traders should rely on the confirmed short-term and long-term trends, or wait for more data to emerge before forming a medium-term bias. Long Term (Approximately Next 5 to 8 Weeks):  The model states, "Near Overbought But Upward Momentum Is Slowing-Potential Short Candidate-If Range Highs Don't Hold Then Look To Short Using The 8-EMA As A Target Range." Approach : The long-term perspective suggests that while the asset is near overbought, upward momentum is slowing. This presents a potential short candidate, especially if range highs are not held. A short position could target the 8-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Overall Trading Considerations: Conflicting signals: The short-term trends ("Neutral" and "Rangebound") suggest indecision, while the long-term indicates slowing upward momentum and potential for a short. Short-term rebound potential: Despite overall weakness, there's a possibility of a small short-term rebound. Long-term short opportunity: The long-term outlook points to a potential short-selling opportunity if range highs fail to hold, with the 8-EMA as a target. In summary , the current view is mixed, with short-term indecision, a potential for a small rebound, and a long-term bearish bias if key resistance levels are not maintained. Long-term traders should be cautious of the slowing upward momentum and consider short opportunities if range highs are not held. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The chart below is an update to our previous post (26 May) in which we highlighted the (1) re-test of the 200-day SMA and (2) The $1042 level as the trigger for a potential 'momentum run'. Precious Post (26 May: Palladium: Retesting The 200d; Triggers Above $1042) A flat 200-day moving average is often accompanied by a price that is rangebound i.e. struggling to find direction. Whilst it can be frustrating in the short term, traders should remain alert to the potential for strength (or weakness) on the lower time frames which may be indicative of renewed buying (or selling) interest. In the case of Palladium, the commodity has rebound from below the 200-day SMA to above, and in recent sessions has unwind in from ultra short term overbought to re-test the 200-day SMA. If we start to see strength on the lower time frame and a break above the $1042 level, this could be a trigger for further upside, with the medium term target being the prior swing highs of $1252. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital