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  • Global Ideas: Airbus

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Current Price: 164.80 Stop-loss: A weekly Close Below 148.00 Target: 190 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Richemont: Weak, But Monitoring For A Bullish Reversal Candle (Short Term)

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Most recently, into the short term highs (16 May), the end of day model warned traders against chasing! Time-stamped reading below: Previous Post (16 May): Richemont: Short/Long; Gap Filled & Rebound +20% Further Update: Strong results out this morning. Richemont traded into the buy re-entry range and rallied 20% . Prior to this, a warning on 05 February. Previous Post (Tuesday 08 April): Update: On 27 March we discussed the potential for a gap fill which coincided with the 200-day SMA. On Friday, the share traded into this range followed by an overshoot on Monday (with a recovery) as well as further gains today (Tuesday). CFR Daily Chart as of Tuesday 08 April at 20h39 Richemont Risk (05 February) Previous Post: (27 March): Trading Richemont. Potential Gap Fill + Re-Test of Breakout Level Into and at the recent highs, the price action model alerted traders to overbought conditions with the subsequent unwind and lower levels. The candle structure continues to reflect short term distribution. Note: An unfilled gap at R2927 has the potential to be filled with is in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement range. Provisional next best actionable area: 21-WEEK EMA [R2934 - R3019] Previous Post (07 March): Getting (or Staying) Rich With Richemont On Wednesday 03 February we discussed Richemont, highlighting the price action model's unfavorable reward-to-risk on the buy/long side. Bear in mind, this has been a massive winner since our note on 26 November, alerting traders to monitor for a change of trend to go from neutral to bullish. To recap the 2 to 4 week reading ('do not enter a buy/long at current levels. the reward-to-risk is unattractive') while the 5 to 8 week reading stated ('aggressive buying is underway however the share is overbought on the lower time frame. expect a consolidation or a minor retracement'). At the recent peak (03 March), the price action model was prescient in identifying the overbought conditions and potential for a pullback. Over the last two sessions, the share has been under significant selling pressure. Well done to traders who may have capitalized on both the long and (then) short side. Previous Post (Wednesday 05 February) Trading Richemont: Model Reading Points To Unfavorable Reward-To-Risk CFR Daily Chart as of Wednesday 05 February at 08h52 Previous Post: Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index, The Share Is Approaching Overbought The chart below highlights the relative/ratio charts price distance versus it's medium term 75-day EMA. Previous Post: Richemont: Sharp Bullish Reversal, In Line With Trading Comment & Model Reading The comment below is an extract from our note on Richemont, dated 26 November 2024. "While it the trend is down and the fundamental outlook is bearish, it may be worthwhile to keep an open mind for a potential change of trend following this multi-month consolidation" - Lester Davids, 26-Nov-2024. The chart below highlights the share price development since: CFR chart as of Thursday 16 January at 09h16 You may also recall the end of day model reading (26-Nov) stating the following: "Attempting a rebound following a downward trend. The share may consolidate further before continuing, higher" . The share has since risen by 34%. Previous Post: Tuesday 26 November 2024 (Time Published: 06h09) The current price trend (down) reflects the automatic price action reading which clearly states the share is weak (ST & MT) while the 8-week and 21-week EMA may act as resistance ranges on any short term rally. The fundamental impact on price is known, with the impact of the Chinese slowdown having filtered through to almost all global luxury peers, resulting in muted growth prospects which has caused market participants to sell down the shares. The share was previous a short/sell idea on 07 June when it traded into extreme short term overbought territory at a high of R3194 before retreating by 27% to it's recent low of R2309. While it the trend is fundamental outlook is bearish and the price is trending down, it may be worthwhile to keep an open mind for a potential change of trend following this multi-month consolidation . What do we need to see? Strong price action with volume would be an early indicator that the market's sentiment toward the share is starting to change + clear/reclaiming the downward trend line in place since the recent peak of 07 June 2024. View as of Thursday 21 November at 10h52. Previous Post: Richemont Is Retreating In Line With Model Reading - Wednesday, 18 September 2024 Real-Time: 10h45 Ticker: CFR Currently lower by R415 or 15.4% Potential target is the unfilled gap at ~R2380 Previous Post (22 August 2024) • REAL-TIME: 15h30 ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that   are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which   is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis for any tradeable instrument across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. The tool helps to determine and shed light on the some of the following: Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position? Whether a share is weak or if aggressive buying is underway Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Remgro: Strong Upside Follow-Through; Consolidating Below Multi-Year Resistance; Trigger 16400c

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Strong upside follow-through from the strategy alert at R132 to R134. Recent highs of at ~R162. Previous Post: Remgro: Now Higher By 16% - Monday, 23 September 2024 Real-Time: 11h04 Now Higher by 16% or +R20 from the strategy alert. The chart is 'current'. Previous Post: 03 September Pre-Market Ticker: REM Short term traders take profit into strength Medium term traders, the weekly chart is developing into a breakout (discussed on Monday 26 August) Weekly Chart (Active Trading Plan 26 August) (Previous Post: 12 August) - Strategy Alert Real-Time: 15h45 Ticker: REM Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Pepkor's Power Move! Now Running +32% + 'Longer Term' Cup & Handle

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za +32% and an even bigger move from our original view in July of 2024 (scroll down to view). Current Price Action Model Reading The motivation behind the Tactical Trading Guide ( price action model ) was to systematically uncover opportunities and assess reward-to-risk, saving time in the process! In essence, the model is the analyst's thought process, on paper. Here, clients have access  to a process that has help to guide traders in order to generate cash and which has helped to manage risk. PEPKOR is one of those names where the model stated: (1) "Aggressive selling recently, however the buy/long reward-to-risk may be attractive" and (2) "Has been sold aggressively. Look for a continued dip/decline before a minor rebound". Scroll down to view the reading for the close of business on Friday 04 April. On Monday 07 April, traders had the opportunity to accumulate, which was followed by a 26% rally (multi-week highs seen yesterday, Monday 12 May). The current price action model reading + the updated chart is as follows: Previous Post (Saturday, 05 April): Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Friday 04 April. These are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital (Data as of end of day Friday 28 March 2025)

  • Market Risk Index: Short Term Sentiment Remains Neutral

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (09 April): Market Risk Index: The Weekly Reading Is Worth Noting! *Weekly Time Frame* - Current *Monthly Time Frame* - Current The indicator is a custom-built risk and sentiment index, designed to assess market risk appetite, including whether sentiment is at an extreme position (i.e. excessively bullish or excessively bearish). Components: Copper: Copper often serves as a proxy for global economic activity. A decline in copper prices could signal slowing economic growth, increasing risk. High Beta vs Low Beta: High beta stocks tend to be more volatile than low beta stocks. A widening spread between high and low beta returns might indicate increased risk aversion. Growth vs Value: Growth stocks typically outperform value stocks in bull markets. A shift towards value stocks could suggest investors are becoming more cautious. EM Currencies: Emerging market currencies can be sensitive to risk appetite. A weakening of EM currencies could signal increased risk aversion. AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar is often used as a proxy for global risk sentiment. A decline in AUD/USD could indicate increased risk aversion. Consumer Staples vs Consumer Discretionary: Consumer staples are generally considered defensive assets. A shift towards consumer staples could suggest investors are seeking safety. Semiconductors vs S&P 500: The semiconductor sector is cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. Underperformance of semiconductors relative to the broader market could signal increased risk. Russell 2000 ETF: This ETF tracks small-cap stocks, which are generally considered riskier than large-cap stocks. Underperformance of the Russell 2000 could suggest increased risk aversion. U.S. Dollar Index (Inverse): A strengthening US Dollar often signals a flight to safety, suggesting increased risk aversion.

  • SPDR International Small Cap ETF: Base Breakout; Target $40

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Last Close: $36.17 Stop-loss: A weekly Close Below $33.00 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • iShares MSCI Peru ETF: Sizeable Exposure To Materials; 12x P/Earnings & 1.8x P/Book

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Looking to break out of a 15-year base. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Unum Capital Commentary For Bloomberg

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • +60 Shares Commentary (incl. Anheuser Busch, Clicks & Mr. Price)

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Monday 02 June. These are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Long Term (approximately 5 to 8 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • JSE Top 40 Index: All-Time High + What's The Data Saying?

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Last week our comment was as follows: "The JSE Top 40 Index is NOT overbought". We have since seen the index trade into new all-time highs with the price action model reading as of today's close being as follows: Previous Post (Monday, 26 May): The JSE Top 40 Index is NOT overbought however, it is trading in a range where the following outcomes are probable: (1) a pullback to key moving averages and (2) the start of a short term consolidation/sideways range. Current Price Action Model Reading: Daily Chart: Previous Post: JSE Top 40 Index: 85,000 & Indecision Near Multi-Month Highs In our report on 05 May, we published market breadth data which highlighted the emergence of early weakness and bearish momentum as well as a notable increase in share with overbought conditions. While the index has continued to trade near all-time highs, the candle structure (since Monday 05 May) has reflected indecision between buyers and sellers, with selected parts of the market unwinding from short term overbought conditions. Well done to clients who may have capitalized on the index-level and/or sector-level opportunities. To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Sunday, 06 April) April 2025: Volatility Equals Opportunity Talking Points: Macro Developments Currently Driving Sentiment/Outlooks What We Know Valuation Volatility Equals Opportunity Where Is The Bottom? / Timing Macro Developments Currently Driving Sentiment/Outlooks | This note runs the risk of communicating items you may already be familiar with. For example, you will be aware that global financial markets are under pressure. You will be aware that the trade war via tariffs are one of, if not the main driver of the decline in risk assets. You will also be aware that volatility is high and that most risk assets have sold off. The aforementioned, are some of the negative factors that are at play. What We Know | As analysts and traders, we will never have all of the information at hand in order to make a decision. In some cases, we will have 55% of the information while in other case, will have 78% of the information etc. What we do know is that lower prices are presenting us with opportunities to (1) be active and take advantage of volatility and both the buy (long) and sell (short) side and (2) Take advantage of lower prices to build medium to long term portfolios (both U.S and global). What we also recognize is that at an index level, the All Share and Top 40 indices are slightly off their long term highs, but underneath the surface there has been some have been businesses that have seen their share prices decline significantly over several weeks and months. Valuation | In the short term, valuation isn't a very good timing tool however, over the long term, it does add value and can help traders and investors accumulate pieces of businesses that have the ability to 're-rate' over several months and years. While it is a crude way of measuring value, it does help us identify potentially cheap stocks (to buy) or expensive ones (to sell). A quick screen will help to uncover potential opportunities. Take Absa , for example. At Friday's close the share traded on a price-to-earnings ratio of 6x , with a dividend yield of 8% . It also sported a price-to-book value of 0.82 . SA industrial group Bidvest's price-to-book ratio is at 1.98x , which is the lowest since October 2020. Old Mutual trades on 6 times it's trailing earnings, with a dividend yield of 7.6% . Cyclical share Sappi trades on a 4 price-to-earnings ratio and a 7.2% dividend yield . This is a non-comprehensive list and merely just examples of shares leaning toward fundamental value. Volatility Equals Opportunity | The spike in volatility is presenting traders and long term investors with opportunities to smartly allocate capital to take advantage of falling prices . Where is The Bottom? / Timing The Market |  With prices moving at a rapid pace, levels have and are being breached with new support and resistance zone being tested. In some case, support is taken out and reclaimed, creating an opportunity for the fast-fingered trader to generate cash. I'll be the first to admit that I don't know where the exact bottom is, however, I'll be monitoring real-time developments in price action in an attempt to ascertain whether the momentum is slowing down or accelerating as well as what the price action is signaling. Bottom Line | The next few days and weeks may present an opportunity gradually phase in positions i.e. rand or dollar-cost average into a medium to long term portfolio. The current sell-off represents some businesses going 'on sale', with prices that may offer value for a 'limited period only'. Others might have further to fall, which will offer opportunities at a later stage. Note: With prices moving fast, it might be that not all ideas/opportunity will be communicated in written format via the Unum Capital website. To avoid missing opportunities, open an account and connect directly with our traders on the desk. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Full Target Reached + New High: VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF

    Well done to clients who have been participating in the gold run. Previous Post: VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF - Monday, 23 September 2024 Original Post: https://www.unum.capital/post/vaneck-junior-gold-miners-monday-23-september-2024 Pre-Market Asian/U.S Trading Session VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF breaking a 14-year downward trend. Code: GDXJ Time Frame: Medium/Long Term Potential catch-up to the underlying commodity trading at all-time highs. To trade this ETF, you will need an offshore account. Current Level (Last Close): $49.71 Target Range: $63 to $65 Stop-loss/invalidated below: $43.50 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Update: NuScale Power Corp 187% Rally

    Research Notes For 02 to 06 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0206june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Massive rally to a high of $36.85 in recent sessions. Trade Alert: NuScale Power Corp Nuclear Theme: Small Cap Speculative Idea (Offshore) Thursday, 03 October 2024 Time Published: 15h00 Sector: Nuclear Ticker: SMR Last: $12.83 Also added it as a trade alert (speculative/small): Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

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