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Research Notes For 26 to 30 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2630may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za #Early Access The JSE Top 40 Index is NOT overbought however, it is trading in a range where the following outcomes are probable: (1) a pullback to key moving averages and (2) the start of a short term consolidation/sideways range. Current Price Action Model Reading: Daily Chart: Previous Post: JSE Top 40 Index: 85,000 & Indecision Near Multi-Month Highs In our report on 05 May, we published market breadth data which highlighted the emergence of early weakness and bearish momentum as well as a notable increase in share with overbought conditions. While the index has continued to trade near all-time highs, the candle structure (since Monday 05 May) has reflected indecision between buyers and sellers, with selected parts of the market unwinding from short term overbought conditions. Well done to clients who may have capitalized on the index-level and/or sector-level opportunities. To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Sunday, 06 April) April 2025: Volatility Equals Opportunity Talking Points: Macro Developments Currently Driving Sentiment/Outlooks What We Know Valuation Volatility Equals Opportunity Where Is The Bottom? / Timing Macro Developments Currently Driving Sentiment/Outlooks | This note runs the risk of communicating items you may already be familiar with. For example, you will be aware that global financial markets are under pressure. You will be aware that the trade war via tariffs are one of, if not the main driver of the decline in risk assets. You will also be aware that volatility is high and that most risk assets have sold off. The aforementioned, are some of the negative factors that are at play. What We Know | As analysts and traders, we will never have all of the information at hand in order to make a decision. In some cases, we will have 55% of the information while in other case, will have 78% of the information etc. What we do know is that lower prices are presenting us with opportunities to (1) be active and take advantage of volatility and both the buy (long) and sell (short) side and (2) Take advantage of lower prices to build medium to long term portfolios (both U.S and global). What we also recognize is that at an index level, the All Share and Top 40 indices are slightly off their long term highs, but underneath the surface there has been some have been businesses that have seen their share prices decline significantly over several weeks and months. Valuation | In the short term, valuation isn't a very good timing tool however, over the long term, it does add value and can help traders and investors accumulate pieces of businesses that have the ability to 're-rate' over several months and years. While it is a crude way of measuring value, it does help us identify potentially cheap stocks (to buy) or expensive ones (to sell). A quick screen will help to uncover potential opportunities. Take Absa , for example. At Friday's close the share traded on a price-to-earnings ratio of 6x , with a dividend yield of 8% . It also sported a price-to-book value of 0.82 . SA industrial group Bidvest's price-to-book ratio is at 1.98x , which is the lowest since October 2020. Old Mutual trades on 6 times it's trailing earnings, with a dividend yield of 7.6% . Cyclical share Sappi trades on a 4 price-to-earnings ratio and a 7.2% dividend yield . This is a non-comprehensive list and merely just examples of shares leaning toward fundamental value. Volatility Equals Opportunity | The spike in volatility is presenting traders and long term investors with opportunities to smartly allocate capital to take advantage of falling prices . Where is The Bottom? / Timing The Market |  With prices moving at a rapid pace, levels have and are being breached with new support and resistance zone being tested. In some case, support is taken out and reclaimed, creating an opportunity for the fast-fingered trader to generate cash. I'll be the first to admit that I don't know where the exact bottom is, however, I'll be monitoring real-time developments in price action in an attempt to ascertain whether the momentum is slowing down or accelerating as well as what the price action is signaling. Bottom Line | The next few days and weeks may present an opportunity gradually phase in positions i.e. rand or dollar-cost average into a medium to long term portfolio. The current sell-off represents some businesses going 'on sale', with prices that may offer value for a 'limited period only'. Others might have further to fall, which will offer opportunities at a later stage. Note: With prices moving fast, it might be that not all ideas/opportunity will be communicated in written format via the Unum Capital website. To avoid missing opportunities, open an account and connect directly with our traders on the desk. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 26 to 30 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2630may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The bull flag discussed last week has been triggered. Previous Post (21 May): Copper Futures: Bull Flag Emerging? A break above 4.73 targets 5.15. Previous Post (20 March): Copper: Repeating It's Mid 2000s Cycle? We have a long history discussing Copper, since the lows during Covid at $2.31. This is an update. What we saw then... (the potential for a post 2001 to 2003 cycle run-up). How it's developed thus far... Previous Posts Previous Post: Copper - Your Questions Answered (14 January 2025) Analyst's Price Action Model Here's a summary of the price action model for Copper Futures: Q: What is the overall trend of Copper Futures? A: The overall trend is Bullish. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The current 7-day trend is Overbought. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The current 14-day trend is Very Bullish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: Yes, there is a potential opportunity for a short-term buy/long position. The model suggests looking for a pullback to the 8 or 21 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) as a potential entry point for the next move higher. Q: What is the outlook for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: For the medium term, the advice is to expect a steady upward trend. It's recommended to apply daily/weekly moving averages where applicable. Q: What is the outlook for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: In the long term, the advice is to anticipate a continuation of the bullish regime. If Copper Futures pull back, the model suggests using the prior session close or the 8-EMA as an accumulation zone. It's recommended to apply weekly moving averages and time frames (not daily). In summary: The price action model for Copper Futures indicates a bullish overall trend with a short-term overbought condition. Traders are advised to look for potential pullbacks to enter long positions. The medium-term outlook is for a steady upward trend, while the long-term expectation is for a continuation of the bullish regime. Copper Futures Daily Chart Previous Post: This Is How I'm Looking At Copper + Updated Target Thursday, 03 October 2024 Time Published: 19h26 Great comeback on the back of the Chinese stimulus announcement, with the continued development of a +3 year base. Measured move target (medium/long term) = $6.60 Previous Post: Tuesday, 24 September at 11H16 The People's Bank of China (PBoC) introduced several measures to boost the economy amid concerns that the official growth target of around 5% might be out of reach due to recent weak data. Governor Pan Gongsheng said in a media briefing today that the central bank will cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50bps, which will inject CNY 1 trillion into the financial system, with the possibility of another reduction of 0.25 to 0.5 ppts later this year. In addition, the PBoC will lower the seven-day reverse repo rate by 20bps to 1.5%, aiming to reduce short-term borrowing costs for banks. This move is accompanied by a 30bps reduction in borrowing costs of the medium-term lending facility. Mortgage rates will also be trimmed, with an expected average drop of 50bps, and the minimum down payment for second homes will be cut to 15% from 25%. Pan did not specify when the moves will take effect. Tuesday's action came after the US Fed started its monetary easing cycle with a large rate cut - Source: TradingEconomics Previous Post (26 August 2024) US Trading Session (Mon, 26-Aug-2024), Time: 19h00 (S/Africa) Was $3.95 vs a multi-week high of $4.23 today. Previous Post (07 August 2024) Real-Time: 14h36 Trading at it's previous breakout level. Previous Post: UPDATE: Copper has retraced from it's short and medium term overbought levels, having traded above $5.00. This follows an impressive run, one that we discussed on 16 November 2023. The automated model gave us a reading on 15 May, warning of an unappealing reward-to-risk on the upside i.e. expect a pullback. At current levels, the commodity trades in a high bearish momentum regime, approaching short term oversold levels. In addition, it is trading at or around the rising 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), a level at which bulls could re-emerge. The short term trend remains down, however active traders would want to monitor for early signs of price stabilization which could signal the start of a base and potentially a bullish reversal. Downside risk, as highlighted on 15 May: Upside Opportunity on 16 November 2023: I've been a copper bull since May 2020. This was the setup, as I highlighted and discussed at the time. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 26 to 30 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2630may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Our goal in publishing research is to help clients manage risk and uncover opportunities. To side-step the landmines. To discover gold. Sometimes it's manual. Sometimes it's automated. Never certainties. Always Probabilities. Unorthodox but simple, Investec Ltd (INL) is a great example of how the automated data helped clients manage the risk and uncover an opportunity. Instead of picking just one day or one level, we consider the readings INTO THE RECENT LOWS, highlighting how the data prepared traders for a money-making opportunity. Here, we review the readings starting at 27 March to the day before the low i.e. 04-April. The Tactical Trading Guide is published daily. In accordance with the above chart and references, below are the time-stamped readings. 27 March, Time-Stamped Reading: 28 March, Time-Stamped Reading: 31 March, Time-Stamped Reading: 01 April, Time-Stamped Reading: 02 April, Time-Stamped Reading: 03 April, Time-Stamped Reading: 04 April, Time-Stamped Reading: DID YOU KNOW? Year-to-date, we have published over 950 research notes. If you've been a consumer of our research but have not traded via the Unum Capital trading desk, why not consider making us your trading services provider? To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 26 to 30 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2630may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The blue shaded area and the yellow candles represents a POTENTIAL PRICE PATH. This is not a certainty but rather a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY. The yellow circled area represents the recent buy re-entry range from which we saw a rebound from R270 to R301. This setup was highlighted in the report dated 28 April. The downward sloping 200-day SMA has since acted as a resistance range and has resulted in the share consolidating since 14 May. An unfilled gap remains at R279 which could be re-tested before the next move higher. Here, we are considering the potential for a breach of the downward trend line (overhead resistance). Note: The setup and approach is subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. Stay flexible! Current Price Action Model - The long term (5 - 8 week) reading stands out to me! Previous Post (Tuesday, 13 May): Mondi Plc | Three-Day Rebound From Buy Zone Traded into the buy range (a low of R268 followed by a rebound to R290 as of yesterday's high). The current price action model reading is as follows: The slide below was featured in the report, 'The Sum of the Charts' (Monday, 28 April), highlighting the Mondi and preparing clients for a potential trading opportunity. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 26 to 30 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2630may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 26 to 30 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2630may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Strong upside follow-through from 26-Feb note at 13390c. Falling wedge breakout sees temporary reclaim of the 200-day SMA Improved candle structure Short Term: Strong / approaching overbought Long Term: Strong attempt at a recovery Key level: ~17250c Long term target is ~20100c - 20900c (around the 200-week) For African Rainbow Minerals (ARI) , here's a breakdown of the potential trading approach across different timeframes: Short Term (approx. next 1 to 10 Trading Days): The model indicates "Very Strong Move Buyers In Control But Don't Chase-May Fail At Attempt To Hold The Highs-If It Doesn't Hold Then The 8-EMA May Be A Short/Sell Target." Approach:  Be cautious of chasing the upward momentum. Look for potential signs of weakness at the highs. If the price fails to hold these highs, the 8-EMA could become a short-sell target. Consider waiting for a pullback or confirmation of failure at the highs before initiating a short position. Medium Term ( approx. next 2 to 4 Weeks): The model suggests "Aggressive Buying But Do Not Chase-Look For Overshoot or Failure To Hold Prior Session Range Highs To Short-Sell Back To The 8-EMA." Approach:  Similar to the short term, while there's aggressive buying, avoid chasing. Watch for potential overshoots or failure to sustain above prior session highs. These could present opportunities to short-sell, targeting a move back down to the 8-EMA. Long Term ( approx. next 5 to 8 Weeks): The model describes a "Strong Attempt At A Bullish Reversal Following A Consolidation Phase." Approach:  The long-term outlook suggests a potential bullish reversal. This might warrant looking for buying opportunities on pullbacks or confirmations of the reversal. However, this needs to be considered in the context of the short and medium-term cautions about chasing highs. Overall Trading Considerations for ARI: Short-term caution:  The model advises against chasing the current buying pressure in the short and medium term, highlighting potential for failure at the highs. Potential short opportunities:  Watch for signs of weakness at the highs in the short to medium term, with the 8-EMA as a potential target for short-selling. Long-term bullish potential:  The longer term suggests a bullish reversal, so any short-term bearish moves could eventually present longer-term buying opportunities if the reversal thesis holds. Previous Post (22 April): African Rainbow Minerals Running 35% + Updated Model Reading Current (Live) Price Action Model Reading Discussed seven weeks ago (Wednesday 26-Feb) at 13390c. Of course, it wasn't the exact low and clients had an even better opportunity to buy as low as ~12800c. Today it printed a high of 17814c Well done to clients who latched onto the opportunity. It's also worth noting the time-stamped model reading on the same day (end of day 26 February), identifying the attractive technical position. Previous Post (Wednesday 26 February): Trading African Rainbow Minerals: Live Model Reading (Oversold/Attractive) As the price continues to get sold off aggressively, this model reading might be worth noting. Previous Post (Tuesday, 25 February End of Day): My comment a few days ago above R167 was: "short term traders, consider taking profits. It's R140 now!" Previous Post Running +9%. Edit: Closed the day very strong & now running +10% ARI Daily Chart as of end of day. If you are an ultra short term trader, then a move of this size could be an opportunity bank/take profit, however, for medium term traders, we could be in the early stages of a bigger move. Also moving perfectly in line with the price action model reading (scrolls down to view). Previous Post (Sunday, 12 January for Monday 13 January): African Rainbow Minerals: Breaking Out On A Relative Basis (Bullish Setup) African Rainbow Minerals Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index African Rainbow Minerals (ARI) Analyst's Price Action Model The 7-day trend is strong, and the 14-day trend is rangebound. Q: What is the overall trend for African Rainbow Minerals in the short term (1 to 10 trading days)? A: attempting a bullish reversal following a consolidation phase. This suggests a potential upward move in the short term. Q: What is the medium-term trend (2 to 4 weeks) for African Rainbow Minerals? A: The medium-term trend is attempting a rebound following a downward trend. This indicates a potential upward movement, but it may consolidate further before continuing higher. Q: What is the long-term trend (5 to 8 weeks) for African Rainbow Minerals? A: The long-term trend is range-bound in a weak regime. A recovery buy or long position is triggered on strong bids and a break of the current range high. This suggests a potential upward move, but it may be range-bound for a while. Q: What are the key takeaways from this price action analysis? A: The short-term trend is bullish, suggesting a potential upward move. The medium-term trend is attempting a rebound, but may consolidate further before continuing higher. The long-term trend is range-bound, but a recovery buy or long position is triggered on strong bids and a break of the current range high. Q: What are some potential strategies for trading African Rainbow Minerals based on this analysis? A: Short-term traders: May look to buy on dips or breakouts in the short term, as the trend is bullish. Medium-term traders: May look to buy on a break of the current resistance level, as the medium-term trend is attempting a rebound. Long-term traders: May look to buy on strong bids and a break of the current range high, as the long-term trend is range-bound. Previous Post: African Rainbow Minerals: A +29% Rally; Now Short Term Overbought Wednesday, 02 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market (06h11) Ticker: ARI Significant rally off the swing lows of R155 to a high R201.98 during yesterday's session. Short term traders, take profit or trim some of your position. Previous Post: Wednesday, 13 September 2024. 11h55 The share has now rallied by R37, with a high of R192.64 today. Short term/active traders will use these advances to reduce exposure and potentially re-enter at lower levels. The high was also into my actionable trading zone (sell/reduce), pulling back to R187 on an intraday basis. Scroll down to see the previous (+original) posts which were communicated to clients of Unum Capital. The chart is 'current' Previous Post: 13 September 2024 Update / Pre-Market Ticker: ARI Previous Post: 12 September Real-Time: 10h21 Ticker: ARI The share has found support at the previous swing low and is rebounding from deeply oversold conditions. This setup was discussed on Monday, 02 September. The chart is 'current' Pre-Market Ticker: ARI As per my report on Monday, 02 September (Active Trading Plan), the share is approaching key levels i.e. the previous breakout range and the previous swing lows. Also note the following, yesterday we saw a 'doji' candle being printed, which may be early clues of a slowdown in downward momentum. Note: Event risk in the form of earnings at present (Friday, 06 September). The slide from my report is shown below. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 26 to 30 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2630may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za In our previous post, we highlighted the share having started to retrace in line with the price action mode reading. According to the update model reading (as of Friday's close), at or below the 50-day EMA is a range where short term traders should be looking for support. Looking more broadly, the 21-week EMA (coinciding with the 75-day EMA) is a range at which medium term traders would wait for a re-entry (see the blue horizontal lines on the chart). Previous Post (19 May): Trading Naspers: Retracing In Line With Model Reading Please see the original model reading further down (14 May). Previous Post (14 May): Short Term Traders, Caution On Naspers __________________________________________________________________________________ On 14 January, we published a note, highlighting Naspers oversold condition relative to the JSE Top 40 Index. After a 40% rally, the reward-to-risk is LESS favourable versus the Q1 lows. Yesterday's pre-market price action model reading (Tactical Trading Guide) for Naspers stated the following for the 3x time frames: SHORT TERM (approximately 1 to 10 days): " Do not enter a buy/long here (at current levels). The reward-to-risk is unattractive " MEDIUM TERM (approximately 2 to 4 weeks): " The general trend is up, however, look for failure to hold the prior session range highs to initiate a ~1 to 2 day short/sell setup . LONG TERM (approximately 5 to 8 weeks): " Has resumed a bull move in a strong upward trend ." Yesterday's Tactical Trading Guide can be found here: https://www.unum.capital/post/pacmntry The slide below is from last week's report, discussed Naspers: Previous Post (14 January): Relative The Top 40, Naspers Is Trading In A Short Term Oversold Range The lower panel on the chart tells a story... NPN Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of Monday 15h08 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 26 to 30 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2630may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Note: The share is also extended to the upside vs the 50-day EMA (i.e. a poor buy/long reward-to-risk). Provisional next best level of buying interest is R139 to R142 The overall tone leans towards a cautiously bullish  outlook, particularly in the longer term. The 14-day trend is identified as "Very Bullish," which suggests strong upward momentum over the medium term. While the 7-day trend is "Overbought," indicating a potential for a short-term pullback or consolidation, the longer timeframe perspective highlights underlying strength. The "Long Term" commentary suggests an attempt to advance within a bullish regime, looking for opportunities based on the prior session's close and moving averages, indicating a bias towards upward movement over a longer horizon. However, the "Short Term" assessment notes that it "Would Not Enter Long Here" due to an "Unattractive Risk Reward." This highlights the caution in the immediate short term, likely due to the overbought condition. The "Medium Term" view suggests a "General Trend Up" but advises looking for specific setups after potential failure to hold prior sessions, indicating a need for confirmation even within the broader upward trend. In summary, the analysis presents a bullish sentiment for Northam Platinum in the medium to long term, supported by the "Very Bullish" 14-day trend and the long-term commentary. However, it signals short-term caution due to overbought conditions and an unattractive risk-reward, suggesting a need for careful entry points even within the broader upward trajectory. Previous Post: Data to empower and inform Data to help manage risk and uncover opportunity Northam Platinum is a great example of how the Tactical Trading Guide informs traders about the best probability, going forward. Time-stamped as always.... Not a client as yet? Get in touch today by emailing tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 26 to 30 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2630may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za To help interpret underlying market conditions, we compare the market breadth for changes between the end of day on Friday, 16 May 2025, and the end of day on Friday, 23 May 2025: The number of constituents in the 'Overbought' category has increased from 3 to 6. The number of constituents with 'High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought' has decreased from 13 to 5. The number of constituents rated 'Strong' has decreased from 37 to 29. The number of 'Neutral' constituents has slightly increased from 33 to 35. The number of 'Weak' constituents has increased significantly from 16 to 26. The 'High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold' category remains at 0. The 'Oversold' category, which had 0 constituents on 16 May, now has 1 constituent. Overall, the readings indicate a shift from a more bullish leaning market on 16 May towards a more bearish sentiment by 23 May. There is an increase in the number of weaker performing constituents and a decrease in those with strong bullish momentum. The appearance of a constituent in the 'Oversold' territory might suggest a near-term buying opportunity for that specific constituent, while the increase in 'Overbought' constituents could represent potential selling opportunities for those specific stocks. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 26 to 30 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2630may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Pre-Market Monday 19 May): Trading S&P 500 Index: A 20% Rebound; Now In Overbought Range Since highlighting the Market Risk Index on Wednesday 09 April, the S&P 500 has rebounded 20%. Current 7-day trend:   Overbought Current 14-day trend:   Very Bullish Opportunity for a short-term buy/long position?  Buyers are in control, but there is weakness. A lower time frame look for a pullback to the 8 or 21-EMA (buy range) before the next move higher is suggested. Opportunity for a short-term sell/short position?  Not explicitly mentioned for the short term. Current position & trend for the short term (1 to 10 days):  Buyers in control but with weakness, looking for a pullback to buy. Current position & trend for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks):  Steady upward trend with possible consolidation around these levels. Current position & trend for the long term (5 to 8 weeks):  Attempting to advance whilst in a bullish regime. If it pulls back use the prior session close or 8-EMA as an accumulation zone. Previous Post (09 April): Market Risk Index: The Weekly Reading Is Worth Noting! *Weekly Time Frame* - Current *Monthly Time Frame* - Current The indicator is a custom-built risk and sentiment index, designed to assess market risk appetite, including whether sentiment is at an extreme position (i.e. excessively bullish or excessively bearish). Components: Copper: Copper often serves as a proxy for global economic activity. A decline in copper prices could signal slowing economic growth, increasing risk. High Beta vs Low Beta: High beta stocks tend to be more volatile than low beta stocks. A widening spread between high and low beta returns might indicate increased risk aversion. Growth vs Value: Growth stocks typically outperform value stocks in bull markets. A shift towards value stocks could suggest investors are becoming more cautious. EM Currencies: Emerging market currencies can be sensitive to risk appetite. A weakening of EM currencies could signal increased risk aversion. AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar is often used as a proxy for global risk sentiment. A decline in AUD/USD could indicate increased risk aversion. Consumer Staples vs Consumer Discretionary: Consumer staples are generally considered defensive assets. A shift towards consumer staples could suggest investors are seeking safety. Semiconductors vs S&P 500: The semiconductor sector is cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. Underperformance of semiconductors relative to the broader market could signal increased risk. Russell 2000 ETF: This ETF tracks small-cap stocks, which are generally considered riskier than large-cap stocks. Underperformance of the Russell 2000 could suggest increased risk aversion. U.S. Dollar Index (Inverse): A strengthening US Dollar often signals a flight to safety, suggesting increased risk aversion.

Research Notes For 26 to 30 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2630may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Early Access / Updated Chart as of Friday 23 May at 14h35 Previous Post (Wednesday 14 May): Trading Nasdaq 100 Index Price Action Model Reading AI-Assisted Interpretation of Model Reading: Analyst's Disclosure: The interpretation of the price action model was summarized using an A.I tool. Current 7-Day Trend:  Overbought. Current 14-Day Trend:  Very Bullish. Short-Term Buy/Long Opportunity:  The model suggests "Very Strong Move Buyers In Control But Don't Chase-May Fail At Attempt To Hold The Highs-If It Doesn't Hold Then The 8-EMA May Be A Short/Sell Target". This implies that while buyers are strong, chasing the high isn't recommended, suggesting no clear immediate long opportunity without a hold. Short-Term Sell/Short Opportunity:  Yes, if the price fails to hold the highs, the 8-EMA is mentioned as a potential short/sell target. Short-Term (1 to 10 days) Position & Trend:  "Very Strong Move Buyers In Control" with a caution that it "May Fail At Attempt To Hold The Highs". Medium-Term (2 to 4 weeks) Position & Trend:  "Aggressive Buying But Do Not Chase-Look For Overshoot or Failure to Hold Prior Session Range Highs To Short-Sell Back To The 8-EMA". This indicates ongoing aggressive buying, but with a strategy to look for potential short-selling opportunities on overshoots or failure to hold highs. Long-Term (5 to 8 weeks) Position & Trend:  "Has Resumed A Bull Move In A Strong Upward Trend". Summary:  In the short term (1 to 10 days), NASDAQ 100 is seeing a very strong move by buyers, though there's a possibility it might fail to hold the highs, potentially creating a short-sell strategy targeting the 8-EMA. For the medium term (2 to 4 weeks), aggressive buying is underway, but a potential strategy involves looking for opportunities to short-sell on overshoots or if prior session range highs fail to hold, aiming for a move back to the 8-EMA. Looking at the long term (5 to 8 weeks), NASDAQ 100 has resumed a bull move within a strong upward trend. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 26 to 30 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2630may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (09 April): Market Risk Index: The Weekly Reading Is Worth Noting! *Weekly Time Frame* - Current *Monthly Time Frame* - Current The indicator is a custom-built risk and sentiment index, designed to assess market risk appetite, including whether sentiment is at an extreme position (i.e. excessively bullish or excessively bearish). Components: Copper: Copper often serves as a proxy for global economic activity. A decline in copper prices could signal slowing economic growth, increasing risk. High Beta vs Low Beta: High beta stocks tend to be more volatile than low beta stocks. A widening spread between high and low beta returns might indicate increased risk aversion. Growth vs Value: Growth stocks typically outperform value stocks in bull markets. A shift towards value stocks could suggest investors are becoming more cautious. EM Currencies: Emerging market currencies can be sensitive to risk appetite. A weakening of EM currencies could signal increased risk aversion. AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar is often used as a proxy for global risk sentiment. A decline in AUD/USD could indicate increased risk aversion. Consumer Staples vs Consumer Discretionary: Consumer staples are generally considered defensive assets. A shift towards consumer staples could suggest investors are seeking safety. Semiconductors vs S&P 500: The semiconductor sector is cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. Underperformance of semiconductors relative to the broader market could signal increased risk. Russell 2000 ETF: This ETF tracks small-cap stocks, which are generally considered riskier than large-cap stocks. Underperformance of the Russell 2000 could suggest increased risk aversion. U.S. Dollar Index (Inverse): A strengthening US Dollar often signals a flight to safety, suggesting increased risk aversion.