Search this site

Links To The Research Notes For 12 to 16 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/research-12-16-may-2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (30 April) Previous Post (30 April) Trading OUTsurance All-Time High But A Poor Buy/Long Reward-To-Risk (Model: "...Sellers Emerging") Previous Post: Trading OUTsurance: New Highs + Support From Model Reading The motivation behind the Tactical Trading Guide ( price action model ) was to systematically uncover opportunities and assess reward-to-risk, saving time in the process! In essence, the model is the analyst's thought process, on paper. Here, clients have access to a process that has help to guide traders in order to generate cash and which has helped to manage risk. OUTsurance is one of those names where the model stated: (1) Short term (1 to 10 days): "The share has been sold aggressively. Look for a continued dip/decline before a minor rebound" and (2) Medium term (2 to 4 weeks): "Broadly, the share is trading in a weak to sideways consolidation. Expect a small rebound." Scroll down to view the reading for the close of business on Friday 04 April. On Monday 07 April, traders had the opportunity to accumulate, which was followed by a 13% rally (new highs seen today, Wednesday 23 April). The share was featured in our research as a buy idea on Monday 02 September at 4780c. Today (Wednesday, 23 April), the share reached an all-time high of 7290c. The original slide, seen by clients, is shown below: Previous Post (Saturday, 05 April): Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Friday 04 April. These are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital (Data as of end of day Friday 28 March 2025)

Trade   Commodities   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Gold reached the sell re-entry range, followed by a sharp rejection which has led to a $300 decline. The setup below was featured in our recent report, published on Sunday (04 May). The move lower is also in line with our note on 15 April which alerted traders to 'Sellers Becoming Active'. Original Note at the following link: https://www.unum.capital/post/sptgold Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade JSE Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Wednesday 14 May. These are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Long Term (approximately 5 to 8 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Fixed Income ETFs   with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za The rebound in the yield is in line with the price action model reading which was assessed on Friday 04 April at 06h58 (South African Time). See time-stamped reading further below (...'probability of a small rebound'). Now trading at 4.53% from 3.97% at the time. We are also seeing the bull flag (as discussed) come into development. Previous Post (24 April): U.S. 10-Year Yield: Sharp Rise; Now Potential Bull Flag Our last note on Friday 04 April considered the price action model reading where the SHORT TERM stated: " The reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a buy/long position " while the LONG TERM stated: " ...there is a probability of a small rebound ". Scroll down to view the time-stamped reading. From below 3.9%, the yield subsequently rose, moving to 4.59% within 5 days! A massive move in the fixed income space! A brief update, on a development I am noticing: The potential development of a bull flag formation . Previous Post (Friday 04 April, 06h54 - South African Time) + Bear Flag Structure Playing Out Edit: During Friday's U.S trading session, the yield traded as low as 3.86% Last week Friday we discussed the bear flag structure which implies the potential for downside continuation. Over the course of the week, the U.S 10-Year Bond Yield has traded from 4.25% to 3.97%. Lower bond yields mean that bond prices have risen. This move is a continuation of our view at the beginning of this year which recognized the overbought conditions in bond yields i.e. looking for a higher bond prices. Well done to clients who may have allocated a portfolio to treasuries and participated in being long bonds! Chart below is 'current' (as of Friday 04 April at 06h50, South African Time) The current price action model reading is as follows: Previous Post (Friday 28 March, 19h28, US Trading Session): Yield Down, Price Up. Well Done Bond Buyers The move lower in bond yields is in line with our previous view (driven by the model/Tactical Trading Guide) that yields had become overbought (above 4.7%) in the short and medium term and that a risk of a bearish reversal was possible. At current levels we are seeing a potential bear flag technical formation support by poor candle structure on the yield. US 10-Year Bond Yield Chart as of Friday 28 March (U.S. Trading Session) Previous Post: U.S. 10-YEAR BOND YIELD Bullish Momentum However, Approaching Short Term Overbought (08 January 2025) Overall Summary The image presents a price action analysis for the US 10-Year Bond Yield, focusing on three timeframes: Short Term (1-10 days), Medium Term (2-4 weeks), and Long Term (5-8 weeks). Key Observations 7-Day Trend: High Bullish Momentum, Approaching Overbought 14-Day Trend: Very Bullish Short Term (1-10 days): Price Action Reading: Very Strong Move, Buyers in Control, but Don't Chase - May Fail to Hold the Highs; If it doesn't hold, the 8-EMA may be a short-sell target. Medium Term (2-4 weeks): Price Action Reading: Aggressive Buying but Do Not Chase - Look for Overshoot or Failure to Hold Prior Session Highs to Short-Sell Back to the 8-EMA. Long Term (5-8 weeks): Price Action Reading: Attempting to Advance Whilst in a Bullish Regime - If it Pulls Back, Use Prior Session Close or 8-EMA as an Accumulation Zone. Interpretation Bullish Momentum: The price of the US 10-Year Bond Yield has been rising strongly in the short term. Caution: The momentum is approaching overbought territory, suggesting a potential reversal. Trading Strategy: Short-term traders: Be cautious of chasing the price higher. Look for signs of weakness (like a failure to hold recent highs) to potentially short-sell. Medium-term traders: Avoid chasing aggressive buying. Look for opportunities to short-sell if the price overshoots or fails to hold prior session highs. Long-term traders: Maintain a bullish bias. If the price pulls back, consider accumulating (buying) near the prior session close or the 8-EMA support level. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Access Global Shares & ETFs  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (23 January): European Financials: Attractive Valuations + Improving Technical Structure In September of last year (2024), I discussed European equities being inexpensive near it's all-time highs. This week, the Euro Stoxx 600 printed new all-time highs. European Financials (EUFN ETF) form part of this group and are trading at the same level (in USD term) as they did in 2010 and 2011. Look at that multi-year base. In addition, the sector trades at valuations that would require very little to go right to see a re-rating. In other words, the bar is low. Previous Post: European Equities: Inexpensive Near All-Time Highs Thursday, 26 September 2024 at 21h12 ETF: iShares Europe Ticker: IEV Trading at 52-week highs, but remains relatively inexpensive Current Price = $58.78 Medium term target = $68 The setup is invalidated below 54.00

Access Global ETFs  with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za EWZ ETF is currently trading higher by 19.8%. Previous Post (19 January) Brazilian Equities Offer Relative Value + Will Benefit If Cyclicals Are To Rally Why EWZ? 1. Exposure to large and mid-sized companies in Brazil 2. Targeted access to the Brazilian stock market 3. Use to express a single country view Analyst's Price Action Model Overall Strategy for iShares Brazil ETF (EWZ) Combining the short-term, medium-term, and long-term trends, the overall outlook for the iShares Brazil ETF is cautiously optimistic. While the short-term trend is attempting a bullish reversal, the medium-term outlook is uncertain. The long-term trend, however, is showing signs of attempting to turn around after a period of strong selling pressure. This suggests that there might be potential for long-term upside, but investors should remain cautious in the near term. Current 7-Day Trend: Strong Current 14-Day Trend: Attempting a Bullish Reversal Following a Consolidation Phase Short-Term Outlook (1 to 10 days): The short-term view points to a potential for a buy/long position as the 7-day trend is strong and the 14-day trend is attempting a bullish reversal. However, the recent consolidation phase suggests that caution is warranted. Medium-Term Outlook (2 to 4 weeks): The medium-term outlook is uncertain, as there is no reading available for this time frame. Long-Term Outlook (5 to 8 weeks): The long-term outlook is cautiously optimistic. The previously strong selling pressure is now attempting to turn around, suggesting potential for long-term upside. However, it is important to monitor the situation closely as the long-term trend is still developing. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade the Naspers  with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za __________________________________________________________________________________ On 14 January, we published a note, highlighting Naspers oversold condition relative to the JSE Top 40 Index. After a 40% rally, the reward-to-risk is LESS favourable versus the Q1 lows. Yesterday's pre-market price action model reading (Tactical Trading Guide) for Naspers stated the following for the 3x time frames: SHORT TERM (approximately 1 to 10 days): " Do not enter a buy/long here (at current levels). The reward-to-risk is unattractive " MEDIUM TERM (approximately 2 to 4 weeks): " The general trend is up, however, look for failure to hold the prior session range highs to initiate a ~1 to 2 day short/sell setup . LONG TERM (approximately 5 to 8 weeks): " Has resumed a bull move in a strong upward trend ." Yesterday's Tactical Trading Guide can be found here: https://www.unum.capital/post/pacmntry The slide below is from last week's report, discussed Naspers: Previous Post (14 January): Relative The Top 40, Naspers Is Trading In A Short Term Oversold Range The lower panel on the chart tells a story... NPN Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of Monday 15h08 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Sasol   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za 7-Day Trend:   High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought . 14-Day Trend:   Bullish. Short-term (1 to 10 days):   Aggressive buying is underway. A strategy could be to watch for a potential overshoot or failure to hold prior session range highs, which might present an opportunity to short-sell back to the 8-EMA. Medium-term (2 to 4 weeks):   Strong candle structure with a bullish attempt is forming, following a generally weaker trend. Long-term (5 to 8 weeks):   A strong attempt at a bullish reversal is occurring after aggressive selling. In summary , aggressive buying is currently underway in the short term, but a strategy to consider is to watch for potential short-selling opportunities if the price action fails to hold. The medium-term shows a bullish attempt after a weaker trend, and the long-term indicates a strong bullish reversal following aggressive selling. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade the Nasdaq 100 Index with Unum Capital To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Price Action Model Reading AI-Assisted Interpretation of Model Reading: Analyst's Disclosure: The interpretation of the price action model was summarized using an A.I tool. Current 7-Day Trend:  Overbought. Current 14-Day Trend:  Very Bullish. Short-Term Buy/Long Opportunity:  The model suggests "Very Strong Move Buyers In Control But Don't Chase-May Fail At Attempt To Hold The Highs-If It Doesn't Hold Then The 8-EMA May Be A Short/Sell Target". This implies that while buyers are strong, chasing the high isn't recommended, suggesting no clear immediate long opportunity without a hold. Short-Term Sell/Short Opportunity:  Yes, if the price fails to hold the highs, the 8-EMA is mentioned as a potential short/sell target. Short-Term (1 to 10 days) Position & Trend:  "Very Strong Move Buyers In Control" with a caution that it "May Fail At Attempt To Hold The Highs". Medium-Term (2 to 4 weeks) Position & Trend:  "Aggressive Buying But Do Not Chase-Look For Overshoot or Failure to Hold Prior Session Range Highs To Short-Sell Back To The 8-EMA". This indicates ongoing aggressive buying, but with a strategy to look for potential short-selling opportunities on overshoots or failure to hold highs. Long-Term (5 to 8 weeks) Position & Trend:  "Has Resumed A Bull Move In A Strong Upward Trend". Summary:  In the short term (1 to 10 days), NASDAQ 100 is seeing a very strong move by buyers, though there's a possibility it might fail to hold the highs, potentially creating a short-sell strategy targeting the 8-EMA. For the medium term (2 to 4 weeks), aggressive buying is underway, but a potential strategy involves looking for opportunities to short-sell on overshoots or if prior session range highs fail to hold, aiming for a move back to the 8-EMA. Looking at the long term (5 to 8 weeks), NASDAQ 100 has resumed a bull move within a strong upward trend. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Platinum   with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Silver   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Global Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Updated on Tuesday 13 May at 21h20 (South African Time / U.S. Trading Session). Original buy idea was derived through manual search with support from the price action model (scroll down to see). Previous Post: Buy Idea: Uber Technologies (Thursday 12 December 2024 (09h07 / South African Time) Company Names: Uber Technologies Share Code: UBER Last Close: $61.18 The setup in Uber is similar to what we previous saw in CrowdStrike (link to post below): https://www.unum.capital/post/crowdstrike-reaches-350-a-gain-of-52-from-the-model-buy-reading The share has retreated from it's recent highs, is approaching an oversold range which is automatically triggering buy readings on the price model. While I do not expect the current price to be the exact lows, the share is reaching a range at which traders could consider a buy/long position . The bull, base and bear cases are shown on the chart and reflect potential price paths over the short to medium term. Source: Yahoo Finance Source: Lester Davids Source: Lester Davids / TradingView Recent Earnings: A 220% Surprise vs expectations Source: Trading View Consensus Price Targets Source: TradingView AI-Assisted Insights Uber's growth is driven by a combination of factors across its various business segments: 1. Mobility (Ride-hailing): Expanding Global Reach:  Uber continues to enter new markets and expand its service in existing ones, increasing its potential customer base. Diversification of Services:  Beyond basic rides, Uber offers options like UberX, UberPool, UberXL, Uber Black, and Uber Green, catering to different needs and budgets. Technological Advancements:  Investments in technology like AI-powered routing, surge pricing optimization, and fraud detection enhance efficiency and user experience. Partnerships:  Collaborations with public transportation systems and other mobility providers create a more integrated and convenient travel experience. 2. Delivery (Uber Eats): Growing Demand for Food Delivery:  The increasing popularity of food delivery services, driven by convenience and changing consumer habits, fuels Uber Eats' growth. Expanding Merchant Network:  Uber Eats continuously adds new restaurants and businesses to its platform, offering more choices to customers. Delivery Speed and Reliability:  Investments in logistics and delivery infrastructure help ensure faster and more reliable deliveries, enhancing customer satisfaction. New Service Offerings:  Expanding into grocery delivery, prescription delivery, and other on-demand services broadens Uber Eats' reach and revenue streams. 3. Freight: Supply Chain Disruptions:  The ongoing global supply chain challenges create opportunities for Uber Freight to provide more efficient and reliable transportation solutions. Technology-Enabled Solutions:  Uber Freight's platform leverages technology to match shippers with carriers, optimize routes, and streamline the freight booking process. Growing E-commerce:  The rise of e-commerce fuels demand for efficient and cost-effective freight transportation. 4. Other Bets: Autonomous Vehicles:  Uber's investments in self-driving technology have the potential to revolutionize transportation in the long term. Micromobility:  Services like Uber Bike and Uber Scooter offer alternative transportation options, catering to urban commuters and expanding Uber's market reach. Financial Services:  Uber's foray into financial services, including payment processing and credit products, provides additional revenue streams and enhances the user experience. Overall, Uber's growth is driven by its ability to adapt to changing market dynamics, leverage technology to improve its services, and expand its offerings to meet the evolving needs of its customers. The setup in Uber is similar to what we previous saw in CrowdStrike (link to post below): https://www.unum.capital/post/crowdstrike-reaches-350-a-gain-of-52-from-the-model-buy-reading Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital (Published Sunday 09-Feb-2025)