Search this site
7148 results found
- Trading African Rainbow Minerals: Using Data To Assess Risk
The motivation behind the Tactical Trading Guide ( price action model ) was to systematically uncover opportunities and assess reward-to-risk, saving time in the process! In essence, the model is the analyst's thought process, on paper. Here, clients have access to a process that has help to guide traders in order to generate cash and which has helped to manage risk. AFRICAN RAINBOW MINERALS is one of those names where the model stated: (1) "Aggressive buying underway but do not chase. Look for an overshoot or failure to hold the range highs to short back to the 8-EMA". Scroll down to view the reading for the close of business on Wednesday 16 April. On Thursday 17 April and Friday 18 April, traders had the opportunity to reduce it short, which was followed by a move from above R175 to the recent lows of R154. The time-stamped model reading and updated chart is shown below. Trade JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Wednesday 16 April. These are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- +60 Shares Commentary (incl. Foschini, MTN Group & OUTsurance)
Trade JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Tuesday 13 May. These are subject to change as the price action develops. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Market Risk Index: Where Are We In Terms of Sentiment?
Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (09 April): Market Risk Index: The Weekly Reading Is Worth Noting! *Weekly Time Frame* - Current *Monthly Time Frame* - Current The indicator is a custom-built risk and sentiment index, designed to assess market risk appetite, including whether sentiment is at an extreme position (i.e. excessively bullish or excessively bearish). Components: Copper: Copper often serves as a proxy for global economic activity. A decline in copper prices could signal slowing economic growth, increasing risk. High Beta vs Low Beta: High beta stocks tend to be more volatile than low beta stocks. A widening spread between high and low beta returns might indicate increased risk aversion. Growth vs Value: Growth stocks typically outperform value stocks in bull markets. A shift towards value stocks could suggest investors are becoming more cautious. EM Currencies: Emerging market currencies can be sensitive to risk appetite. A weakening of EM currencies could signal increased risk aversion. AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar is often used as a proxy for global risk sentiment. A decline in AUD/USD could indicate increased risk aversion. Consumer Staples vs Consumer Discretionary: Consumer staples are generally considered defensive assets. A shift towards consumer staples could suggest investors are seeking safety. Semiconductors vs S&P 500: The semiconductor sector is cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. Underperformance of semiconductors relative to the broader market could signal increased risk. Russell 2000 ETF: This ETF tracks small-cap stocks, which are generally considered riskier than large-cap stocks. Underperformance of the Russell 2000 could suggest increased risk aversion. U.S. Dollar Index (Inverse): A strengthening US Dollar often signals a flight to safety, suggesting increased risk aversion.
- Trading Glencore Plc: Technical Regime + Price Action Probabilities
Trade JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za The slide below was included in the report 'The Sum of the Charts', published Sunday 11 May for Monday 12 May. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading South 32: Rebounding +14%
Trade JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za We have seen a strong rebound (+14%)%. The bullish reversal is also in line with the model reading at the time (scroll down to view). Chart is current (Tuesday, 13 May at 09h59). Previous Post: (Tuesday 08 April at 11h12): Trading South 32 South 32 Zooming In on the 2-day candle structure which reflects early buying interest out of a deeply oversold range. Price Action Model Reading South 32 (S32) | Zooming out, highlighting the share trading at/near a long term inflection point.
- Trading Spot Gold: $200 Decline + In Line With Model Reading
Trade Commodities with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Gold reached the sell re-entry range, followed by a sharp rejection which has led to a $200 decline. The setup below was featured in our recent report, published on Sunday (11 May). The move lower is also in line with our note on 15 April which alerted traders to 'Sellers Becoming Active'. Original Note at the following link: https://www.unum.capital/post/sptgold Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Pepkor's Power Move! Now Running +26%
Trade JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za The motivation behind the Tactical Trading Guide ( price action model ) was to systematically uncover opportunities and assess reward-to-risk, saving time in the process! In essence, the model is the analyst's thought process, on paper. Here, clients have access to a process that has help to guide traders in order to generate cash and which has helped to manage risk. PEPKOR is one of those names where the model stated: (1) "Aggressive selling recently, however the buy/long reward-to-risk may be attractive" and (2) "Has been sold aggressively. Look for a continued dip/decline before a minor rebound". Scroll down to view the reading for the close of business on Friday 04 April. On Monday 07 April, traders had the opportunity to accumulate, which was followed by a 26% rally (multi-week highs seen yesterday, Monday 12 May). The current price action model reading + the updated chart is as follows: Previous Post (Saturday, 05 April): Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Friday 04 April. These are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital (Data as of end of day Friday 28 March 2025)
- Mondi Plc | Three-Day Rebound From Buy Zone
Trade JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Traded into the buy range (a low of R268 followed by a rebound to R290 as of yesterday's high). The current price action model reading is as follows: The slide below was featured in the report, 'The Sum of the Charts' (Monday, 28 April), highlighting the Mondi and preparing clients for a potential trading opportunity. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Breadth: Interpretation of Market Conditions
Trade JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za To help interpret underlying market conditions, we compare the market breadth readings from the end of Friday, 02 May 2025, to the end of Monday, 12 May 2025, for the JSE Mid & Large Caps: End of Day: Friday 02 May 2025 The readings indicate a market leaning towards bullish sentiment. A significant number of constituents (23) were in the 'High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought' category, with another 9 in 'Overbought'. Only 11 constituents were classified as 'Weak', and none were in the 'High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold' or 'Oversold' categories. This distribution suggests a market with upward momentum, potentially nearing overbought conditions. End of Day: Monday 12 May 2025 The readings show a noticeable shift. The number of constituents in the 'Overbought' category decreased significantly to 1, and those in 'High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought' also decreased to 17. Conversely, the 'Strong' category saw a substantial increase to 43 constituents. The 'Weak' category remained similar with 10 constituents, while the 'High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold' category appeared with 2 constituents, and none in 'Oversold'. Interpretation Over the period, there has been a reduction in the number of constituents exhibiting overbought or near-overbought conditions. The increase in the 'Strong' category suggests that while bullish sentiment remains prevalent, it has moderated somewhat. The emergence of a few constituents in the 'High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold' category could be an early indication of some weakening. Overall, the shift from the readings on May 2nd to those on May 12th suggests a cooling of the previously strong upward momentum. The current distribution, with the majority of constituents in the 'Strong' and 'Neutral' categories, does not strongly point towards an immediate near-term buying or selling opportunity based solely on this breadth analysis. The decrease in overbought readings might alleviate some concerns about an immediate selling opportunity, but the lack of a significant concentration towards oversold does not yet suggest a clear near-term buying opportunity. The following slides (13 to 15 of 54) were featured in the report 'The Sum of the Charts', published Sunday 11 May for Monday, 12 May 2025. Full Report: https://www.unum.capital/post/sotc1205 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- FirstRand Running 28%: Where To From Here?
Trade FirstRand with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za The share has rebounded sharply, with today's high being 28% above the buy range of 5800c to 6000c. Short term traders could consider banking/taking profits. As of today's close, the price action model reading is as follows: Previous Post: Actionable Areas: FirsrRand (Published Saturday 05 April for Monday 07 April) Original Post: https://www.unum.capital/post/fsraction FirstRand (FSR) is down 29% from it's Sept-2024 peak, with the share trading near it's June lows. It's not inconceivable that the share could trade down at the 5800c to 6000c range , which is a medium term support range. At current levels, oversold conditions are already present which reflects aggressive selling pressure however, also raises the probability of an ultra short term rebound . Last close: 6293c FSR Daily Chart as of the close on Friday 04 April Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- +60 Shares Commentary (incl. Absa, Clicks, & Growthpoint)
Trade JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Monday 12 May. These are subject to change as the price action develops. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Russell 3000: Strong Rebound +18% Following 'Washed-Out' Breadth Readings
Update on Monday, 12 May at 18h06 (S/African Time / U.S. Trading Session): From the mid-point of Monday 07 April, the Russell 3000 index is higher by 18%. Previous Post (Sunday, 06 April): Russell 3000. These Chart Help Us Understand... The Russell 3000 Index (three thousand) measures the performance of 3,000 stocks and includes all large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap US equities, along with some microcap stocks. The index is designed to represent approximately 98% of investable US equities by market capitalization. In this note we consider the index breadth readings i.e. the percentage of shares above the 200, 50, 20 and 5-day moving averages. This helps us understand the breadth of the sell-off and whether the current readings is comparable to that of or (near) previous bottoms. % of Shares Above The 200-day Moving Average = 15.57% % of Shares Above The 50-day Moving Average = 7.41% % of Shares Above The 20-day Moving Average = 5.37% % of Shares Above The 5-day Moving Average = 2.44% The chart below highlights two items:(1) the Russell 3000 index (upper panel) and (2) the % of shares above their 200-day moving averages. Here, we also highlight the index lows over the past decade vs the low in the breadth (% vs 200-day). At current levels, the percentage of shares above their 200-day moving averages is 15.57% which is near the low. It's worth noting that in March 2020 the percentage of shares above their 200-day moving averages was just below 5% which indicates that breadth has the ability to further deteriorate from current levels. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital











