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  • EUR/USD: Unwinding From Overbought

    Trade   FX: EUR/USD   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (22 April) EUR/USD: Weekly Overbought + Extended vs Key EMA's Previous Post: Further to last week's post: The pair is trading at it's most extended vs 75-day EMA in over a decade. This points to the pair trading at/near a short term overbought range. Previous Post (10 April): EUR/USD: High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought Previous Post (08 April) EUR/USD: Strong upside follow-through over the past 10 weeks EUR/USD Daily Chart as of Tuesday 08 April at 05h37 Previous Post (Monday, 20 January at 13h38): EUR/USD Attempting A Bullish Reversal Following An Aggressive Sell-Off Analyst's Price Action Model Let's break down the EUR/USD trend analysis based on the price action model: Overall Trend: Long Term: Persistently Weak But Monitor Lower Times For Rebound Potential Short-Term Trends: 7-Day Trend: Neutral 14-Day Trend: Rangebound Short-Term Trading Opportunities: No explicit short-term buy/long position opportunities are indicated in the image. Medium-Term Outlook (2 to 4 weeks): Strong Attempting At Bullish Reversal Following Aggressive Sell-Off Long-Term Outlook (5 to 8 weeks): Persistently Weak But Monitor Lower Times For Rebound Potential Summary: The EUR/USD pair is currently in a long-term downtrend. In the short term, the 7-day trend is neutral, while the 14-day trend is rangebound. There is no explicit signal for a short-term buy or long position. However, the medium-term outlook suggests a potential bullish reversal following a recent sell-off. In the long term, the pair is expected to remain weak, but with potential for rebounds. ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that   are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which   is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis for any tradeable instrument across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Tiger Brands Exceeds R300

    Trade Tiger Brands  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail tradingdesk@unum.co.za The share was featured at 19850c (13 June 2024), looking for a measured move to R242. Today (08 May 2025), the share reached a multi-year high of R302. (Previous Post) TIGER BRANDS: Full Target Reached at R242 - Tuesday, 27 August 2024 Pre-Market Bank/Take Profit Yesterday's high = 24995c Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital Related Posts: https://www.unum.capital/post/tiger-brands-reducing-into-strength-as-measured-move-nears-monday-26-august-2024 https://www.unum.capital/post/tiger-brands-potential-for-upside-continuation-tuesday-09-july-2024

  • Price Action Commentary For Over 60 Shares (incl. Bidvest, Ninety One & Vodacom)

    Trade JSE Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Wednesday 07 May. These are subject to change as the price action develops. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Bid Corp +10% Rally

    Trade Bid Corp  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail tradingdesk@unum.co.za This is an update on the previous note (14 March). Since the, a +10% rally on the model probability reading Previous Post (Friday, 14 March): Trading Bid Corp The current price action model reading is as follows: Previous Post (05 March) Bid Corp: Generate Cash With An Active Approach Well done to clients who are capitalizing on the opportunities at hand. BID Corp has given clients opportunity on both the long (buy) and short (sell) side. The share has retreated by over 9% since recently entering an overbought range close to R480, as mentioned on 31 January (see time-stamped comment/note below). The end of day price action model reading on 31 January also warned traders that aggressive buying was underway but that they should NOT chase/buy as there was a risk of a pullback (the time-stamped reading is shown below). After A 6000c Rebound, This Is The Next Key Level To Monitor. To accelerate momentum, R470 remains a key level / now attempting to break above this level / in the short term, it has entered an overbought range. Note: It been flat for 12 months hence you could say it's not overextended. Exposure to Europe and UK + stronger ZAR has weighed however, if EUR & UK turn positive, the share could start to reflect the positive change in sentiment. [The original model reading (31-October), which highlighted the probability for a rebound, is shown further below on this page] BID Daily Chart as of Friday 31 January at 15h29 Clients will recall our model reading reading looking for a rebound 31 October (Note Published: Thursday 31 October 2024). Scroll down to view the original post. BID Daily Chart as of Friday 31 January at 15h26 Previous Post: Bid Corp: Sellers In Control But Potential For A Rebound Thursday 31 October 2024 Time Published: 09h56 Ticker: BID Here's What The Model Says Previous Post: BID CORP (BID): Full Target Reached - Wednesday, 31 July 2024 Real-Time: 15h41 The idea was the accumulate on prints below R422. The stop-loss was briefly breached, before a further consolidation and bullish reversal. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Anheuser-Busch Inbev

    Trade the Anheuser-Busch Inbev   with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za The slide below was featured in our report: 'The Sum of the Charts': Slide 30 of 50 Research Report: The Sum of the Charts, 28 April - 02 May 2025 DID YOU KNOW? Year-to-date, we have published over 850 research notes. If you've been a consumer of our research but have not traded via the Unum Capital trading desk, why not consider making us your trading services provider? To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published Sunday, 27 April 2025. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Sibanye Stillwater | Generating Cash Flow For Short Term Traders

    The motivation behind the Tactical Trading Guide ( price action model ) was to systematically uncover opportunities and assess reward-to-risk, saving time in the process! In essence, the model is the analyst's thought process, on paper. Here, clients have access  to a process that has help to guide traders in order to generate cash and which has helped to manage risk. SIBANYE STILLWATER  is one of those names where the model stated: "... THE BULLISH MOMENTUM IS SLOWING ON THE LOWER TIME FRAMES. LOOK FOR MINOR SUPPORT ON THE 8 OR 21-EMA AS A BUY RANGE FOR A REBOUND ". Scroll down to view the reading for the close of business on Friday 25 April. Over the following two sessions (29 and 30 April), traders had the opportunity to accumulate as low as 2046c. Today, the share reached a high of 2320c. Note: On 28 February we highlighted the share at 1475c = https://www.unum.capital/post/ssw-long-term Previous Post (end of day Friday 25 April): From Absa to Woolworths: Price Action Commentary For Over 60 Shares Trade JSE Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Friday 25 April. These are subject to change as the price action develops. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Price Action Commentary For Over 60 Shares (incl. British American Tobacco, FirstRand & Standard Bank)

    Trade JSE Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Tuesday 06 May. These are subject to change as the price action develops. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • S&P 500 Index | Extreme Conditions Unwind; Faces 200-Day Test

    Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Does the index offer an appealing buy/long reward-to-risk at or around current levels? No. Can it trade higher? Yes, that's possible. Should we be surprised if it pulls back? No On 09 April, we highlighted the extreme reading on the 'Market Risk Index', with the indicator trading in 'extreme fear' territory i.e. opportunity. From the lows on 09 April, the S&P 500 index has rallied from ~4950 to a high of 5703 on Friday 02 May. In focus is the 200-day simple moving average which currently lacks directional bias and is a likely headwind if the index trades higher from current levels . There is always a possibility that the index reclaims the 200-day, trades above it, then fails to hold the level. Bear in mind, the index has advanced from deeply oversold on 09 April to high bullish momentum/approaching overbought on Friday 02 May. Previous Post (09 April at 10h16 South African Time) Market Risk Index: The Weekly Reading Is Worth Noting! *Weekly Time Frame* - Current *Monthly Time Frame* - Current The indicator is a custom-built risk and sentiment index, designed to assess market risk appetite, including whether sentiment is at an extreme position (i.e. excessively bullish or excessively bearish). Components: Copper: Copper often serves as a proxy for global economic activity. A decline in copper prices could signal slowing economic growth, increasing risk. High Beta vs Low Beta: High beta stocks tend to be more volatile than low beta stocks. A widening spread between high and low beta returns might indicate increased risk aversion. Growth vs Value: Growth stocks typically outperform value stocks in bull markets. A shift towards value stocks could suggest investors are becoming more cautious. EM Currencies: Emerging market currencies can be sensitive to risk appetite. A weakening of EM currencies could signal increased risk aversion. AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar is often used as a proxy for global risk sentiment. A decline in AUD/USD could indicate increased risk aversion. Consumer Staples vs Consumer Discretionary: Consumer staples are generally considered defensive assets. A shift towards consumer staples could suggest investors are seeking safety. Semiconductors vs S&P 500: The semiconductor sector is cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. Underperformance of semiconductors relative to the broader market could signal increased risk. Russell 2000 ETF: This ETF tracks small-cap stocks, which are generally considered riskier than large-cap stocks. Underperformance of the Russell 2000 could suggest increased risk aversion. U.S. Dollar Index (Inverse): A strengthening US Dollar often signals a flight to safety, suggesting increased risk aversion.

  • Russell 3000: Strong Rebound +14%

    Update on Tuesday, 06 May at 20h16 (S/African Time / U.S. Trading Session): From the mid-point of Monday 07 April, the Russell 3000 index is higher by 14%. Previous Post (Sunday, 06 April): Russell 3000. These Chart Help Us Understand... The Russell 3000 Index (three thousand) measures the performance of 3,000 stocks and includes all large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap US equities, along with some microcap stocks. The index is designed to represent approximately 98% of investable US equities by market capitalization. In this note we consider the index breadth readings i.e. the percentage of shares above the 200, 50, 20 and 5-day moving averages. This helps us understand the breadth of the sell-off and whether the current readings is comparable to that of or (near) previous bottoms. % of Shares Above The 200-day Moving Average = 15.57% % of Shares Above The 50-day Moving Average = 7.41% % of Shares Above The 20-day Moving Average = 5.37% % of Shares Above The 5-day Moving Average = 2.44% The chart below highlights two items:(1) the Russell 3000 index (upper panel) and (2) the % of shares above their 200-day moving averages. Here, we also highlight the index lows over the past decade vs the low in the breadth (% vs 200-day). At current levels, the percentage of shares above their 200-day moving averages is 15.57% which is near the low. It's worth noting that in March 2020 the percentage of shares above their 200-day moving averages was just below 5% which indicates that breadth has the ability to further deteriorate from current levels. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Harmony Gold | For Short Term Traders, The Rebound Generates Cash Flow

    The motivation behind the Tactical Trading Guide ( price action model ) was to systematically uncover opportunities and assess reward-to-risk, saving time in the process! In essence, the model is the analyst's thought process, on paper. Here, clients have access  to a process that has help to guide traders in order to generate cash and which has helped to manage risk. HARMONY GOLD  is one of those names where the model stated: (SHORT TERM, 1to 10 days) "... has been sold off aggressively, expect a small rebound ". Scroll down to view the reading for the close of business on Friday 25 April. Over the following three sessions (29, 30 April and 01 May), traders had the opportunity to accumulate, which was followed by a rally from R282 to R305. Previous Post (end of day Friday 25 April): From Absa to Woolworths: Price Action Commentary For Over 60 Shares Trade JSE Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Friday 25 April. These are subject to change as the price action develops. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • USD/ZAR: Approaching Oversold + Probability of a Small Rebound

    Trade FX: USD/ZAR  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za Please see the price action model + the chart below. {Chart: Full Screen} The slide below is from our research report 'The Sum of the Charts' for Monday, 05 May 2025. Previous Post (Monday, 05 May): The Rand Has Advanced In Line With The Model Reading In 07 April, we published a note, highlighting the poor buy/long reward-to-risk with the best probability for the price action model over the subsequent 2 to 4 weeks being a consolidation or minor retracement. We have since seen the pair retrace sharply, from R19.38 to R18.26. Previous Post: USD/ZAR: Ultra Short Term Sees Poor Buy/Long Reward-To-Risk Current price action model reading + updated chart. We saw the share temporarily hold the the R18.23 to R18.36 zone before trading lower, then reclaiming it for a rally to the current multi-week highs nears R19.44. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Market Risk Index: What is the Current Sentiment?

    Trade   Local & Global Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Data as of Tuesday, 06 May at 10h35 Daily Time Frame As of Friday (02 May), sentiment was as follows (slide number 4 of 47): The indicator is a custom-built risk and sentiment index, designed to assess market risk appetite, including whether sentiment is at an extreme position (i.e. excessively bullish or excessively bearish). Components: Copper:  Copper often serves as a proxy for global economic activity. A decline in copper prices could signal slowing economic growth, increasing risk. High Beta vs Low Beta:  High beta stocks tend to be more volatile than low beta stocks. A widening spread between high and low beta returns might indicate increased risk aversion. Growth vs Value:  Growth stocks typically outperform value stocks in bull markets. A shift towards value stocks could suggest investors are becoming more cautious. EM Currencies:  Emerging market currencies can be sensitive to risk appetite. A weakening of EM currencies could signal increased risk aversion. AUD/USD:  The Australian Dollar is often used as a proxy for global risk sentiment. A decline in AUD/USD could indicate increased risk aversion. Consumer Staples vs Consumer Discretionary:  Consumer staples are generally considered defensive assets. A shift towards consumer staples could suggest investors are seeking safety. Semiconductors vs S&P 500:  The semiconductor sector is cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. Underperformance of semiconductors relative to the broader market could signal increased risk. Russell 2000 ETF:  This ETF tracks small-cap stocks, which are generally considered riskier than large-cap stocks. Underperformance of the Russell 2000 could suggest increased risk aversion. U.S. Dollar Index (Inverse):  A strengthening US Dollar often signals a flight to safety, suggesting increased risk aversion. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

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