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- Anheuser Busch-Inbev
The slide below was featured in our report: 'The Sum of the Charts': Slide 30 of 50 Research Report: The Sum of the Charts, 28 April - 02 May 2025 DID YOU KNOW? Year-to-date, we have published over 850 research notes. If you've been a consumer of our research but have not traded via the Unum Capital trading desk, why not consider making us your trading services provider? To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published Sunday, 27 April 2025. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- JSE Top 40 Index: Short Term Cycle
The chart below was featured in our report: 'The Sum of the Charts': Page 7 of 50 Research Report: The Sum of the Charts, 28 April - 02 May 2025 DID YOU KNOW? Year-to-date, we have published over 850 research notes. If you've been a consumer of our research but have not traded via the Unum Capital trading desk, why not consider making us your trading services provider? To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published Sunday, 27 April 2025. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Price Action Commentary For Over 60 Shares (incl. Anglo, OUTsurance & Spar)
Trade JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Tuesday 29 April. These are subject to change as the price action develops. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading Spot Gold: S/Term - Bullish Regime But Lacks Directional Bias
Trade Gold with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Tuesday 15 April): Price Action Model Reading Spot Gold Daily Chart Previous Post (Friday 28 March at 22h11): Gold: Long Term Inflection Point No, we are calling the top, however it may be worth noting that the commodity is trading around key inflection point. A picture paints.... Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- US Equities: Strong Rebound Off 'Extreme' Sentiment Reading
Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za The slide below was featured in our report: 'The Sum of the Charts (Sunday, 27 April)': Slide 3 of 50 Previous Post: Market Risk Index: The Weekly Reading Is Worth Noting! *Weekly Time Frame* - Current *Monthly Time Frame* - Current The indicator is a custom-built risk and sentiment index, designed to assess market risk appetite, including whether sentiment is at an extreme position (i.e. excessively bullish or excessively bearish). Components: Copper: Copper often serves as a proxy for global economic activity. A decline in copper prices could signal slowing economic growth, increasing risk. High Beta vs Low Beta: High beta stocks tend to be more volatile than low beta stocks. A widening spread between high and low beta returns might indicate increased risk aversion. Growth vs Value: Growth stocks typically outperform value stocks in bull markets. A shift towards value stocks could suggest investors are becoming more cautious. EM Currencies: Emerging market currencies can be sensitive to risk appetite. A weakening of EM currencies could signal increased risk aversion. AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar is often used as a proxy for global risk sentiment. A decline in AUD/USD could indicate increased risk aversion. Consumer Staples vs Consumer Discretionary: Consumer staples are generally considered defensive assets. A shift towards consumer staples could suggest investors are seeking safety. Semiconductors vs S&P 500: The semiconductor sector is cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. Underperformance of semiconductors relative to the broader market could signal increased risk. Russell 2000 ETF: This ETF tracks small-cap stocks, which are generally considered riskier than large-cap stocks. Underperformance of the Russell 2000 could suggest increased risk aversion. U.S. Dollar Index (Inverse): A strengthening US Dollar often signals a flight to safety, suggesting increased risk aversion.
- From Absa to Woolworths: Price Action Commentary For Over 60 Shares
Trade JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Friday 25 April. These are subject to change as the price action develops. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital
- Update: Brazilian Equities +15% & Multi-Month Highs
Access Global ETFs with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za EWZ ETF is currently trading higher by 15%. Previous Post (19 January) Brazilian Equities Offer Relative Value + Will Benefit If Cyclicals Are To Rally Why EWZ? 1. Exposure to large and mid-sized companies in Brazil 2. Targeted access to the Brazilian stock market 3. Use to express a single country view Analyst's Price Action Model Overall Strategy for iShares Brazil ETF (EWZ) Combining the short-term, medium-term, and long-term trends, the overall outlook for the iShares Brazil ETF is cautiously optimistic. While the short-term trend is attempting a bullish reversal, the medium-term outlook is uncertain. The long-term trend, however, is showing signs of attempting to turn around after a period of strong selling pressure. This suggests that there might be potential for long-term upside, but investors should remain cautious in the near term. Current 7-Day Trend: Strong Current 14-Day Trend: Attempting a Bullish Reversal Following a Consolidation Phase Short-Term Outlook (1 to 10 days): The short-term view points to a potential for a buy/long position as the 7-day trend is strong and the 14-day trend is attempting a bullish reversal. However, the recent consolidation phase suggests that caution is warranted. Medium-Term Outlook (2 to 4 weeks): The medium-term outlook is uncertain, as there is no reading available for this time frame. Long-Term Outlook (5 to 8 weeks): The long-term outlook is cautiously optimistic. The previously strong selling pressure is now attempting to turn around, suggesting potential for long-term upside. However, it is important to monitor the situation closely as the long-term trend is still developing. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- 📌Research: 21 - 25 April 2025
[OPENING THOUGHT: JSE/Local Equities]: "... However, the readings for the week ending Thursday April 17th paint a different picture. The shift towards a majority of neutral and strong readings, along with the emergence of overbought and approaching overbought conditions in some constituents, suggests a.... This is an extract from the note: 'JSE Market Breadth: Interpretation of Market Conditions'. Read the full note here > https://www.unum.capital/post/interpretbr To kick off the week, the following notes have been published. Additional notes will be added to this page throughout the course of the week, as and when key developments and opportunities are identified. To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za FX/Currency Trends https://www.unum.capital/post/currtrends Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term https://www.unum.capital/post/practmo JSE Top 40 Index https://www.unum.capital/post/fortybull U.S. 10-Year Bond Yield https://www.unum.capital/post/ustenyr Trading Sanlam https://www.unum.capital/post/sanlamres Trading Clicks: Buy/Sell https://www.unum.capital/post/clsell Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term https://www.unum.capital/post/pacmnts Trading US500 / S&P 500 Index https://www.unum.capital/post/usfive Trading OUTsurance https://www.unum.capital/post/tradeoutsura Trading Capitec Bank https://www.unum.capital/post/capitecrally AngloGold Ashanti / Gold Fields / Harmony Gold https://www.unum.capital/post/gldmnrneg Trading Prosus https://www.unum.capital/post/prosusidea Buy ~R269 / Sell ~R297 https://www.unum.capital/blog Trading Woolworths https://www.unum.capital/post/whlrange A 15% Rally https://www.unum.capital/post/15pctrall Pepkor's Power Move https://www.unum.capital/post/pepower Trading USD/ZAR https://www.unum.capital/post/zarslide Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term https://www.unum.capital/post/pactcmt FX: GBP/JPY https://www.unum.capital/post/gbpjpy FX: EUR/USD https://www.unum.capital/post/eurextd African Rainbow Minerals https://www.unum.capital/post/ari35pct Old Mutual https://www.unum.capital/post/omuseventeen 3 Shares: Deteriorating Candle Structure https://www.unum.capital/post/3deter Updated: Volatility Equals Opportunity https://www.unum.capital/post/volaopp Breadth: Interpretation of Market Conditions https://www.unum.capital/post/interpretbr US30 / Dow Jones: Short Term Traders Grab 3800 Points https://www.unum.capital/post/3300pts USD/ZAR: Unwinding From Overbought https://www.unum.capital/post/zarnext Actionable Areas: Amplats, Implats, Northam Platinum https://www.unum.capital/post/platmnrs Global Market Risk Index https://www.unum.capital/post/gmrisk Strongest/Weakest Sectors https://www.unum.capital/post/sectrate JSE Technical Summary: Mid/Large Caps https://www.unum.capital/post/tchsumm 12000 Points https://www.unum.capital/post/12kpoints How To: Trade Naspers https://www.unum.capital/post/httnaspers Click(s) Here To Take Profit https://www.unum.capital/post/clickhere Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term https://www.unum.capital/post/pacmt Missed Last Week's Research? (14 - 18 April) Catch Up Below: Offshore: Wheaton Precious Metals - Target Exceeded https://www.unum.capital/post/wheaton Old Mutual https://www.unum.capital/post/omuupdte Anglo American Platinum https://www.unum.capital/post/amplatsmodel Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term https://www.unum.capital/post/prcmnt Pairs Trade Idea: Long RESI / Short FINI Now +50% https://www.unum.capital/post/sectorpairs Sibanye Stillwater: Running +60% https://www.unum.capital/post/sixtypct Live Commentary (Various) https://www.unum.capital/post/live16042025 New Gold Issuer: Reaches Record Level; Now +122% https://www.unum.capital/post/gld58 Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term https://www.unum.capital/post/pracmnt The 4 Trades You Missed (Including Northam Platinum) https://www.unum.capital/post/dontmissed How To Trade: Sibanye Stillwater https://www.unum.capital/post/httssw FX: GBP/USD https://www.unum.capital/post/pndllr The Share Dipped Into Oversold, Then Rallied By 29% https://www.unum.capital/post/twninepct EUR/USD Extended vs 75-EMA https://www.unum.capital/post/eurext FirstRand: Bank/Take Profit; Running 19 to 21% https://www.unum.capital/post/bankfsr US Sector Breadth: Current Leadership https://www.unum.capital/post/sctrbreadth Impala Platinum https://www.unum.capital/post/trdimp Spot Gold (XAU/USD) https://www.unum.capital/post/sptgold One Week, 11000 Points: Our Research Is Your Opportunity https://www.unum.capital/post/11000pts Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term https://www.unum.capital/post/pricomm USD/ZAR: 21-EMA in Focus https://www.unum.capital/post/zarbelow19 Truworths | AVI | Woolworths https://www.unum.capital/post/truavi South 32 https://www.unum.capital/post/sthirtytwo Live Commentary (Various) https://www.unum.capital/post/livemon1404 Absa | Old Mutual | Bidvest | Sappi https://www.unum.capital/post/volopty U.S. Dollar: Overbought to Oversold + Updated Model Reading https://www.unum.capital/post/dxyoso JSE Top 40 Index: +10000 Point + Updated Model Reading https://www.unum.capital/post/fortyten JSE Market Breadth: Considerable Recovery https://www.unum.capital/post/recovery Top 40 Index: 9000 Point Rally; Oversold To Neutral https://www.unum.capital/post/fortyntrl USD/ZAR: Zooming In (S/Term) https://www.unum.capital/post/zapullback USD/ZAR: Zooming Out (L/Term) https://www.unum.capital/post/zarplain JSE Relative Sector Summaries https://www.unum.capital/post/sectsumma US500/US30: Sharp Rally Off Risk Reading https://www.unum.capital/post/riskrally 4x High Demand / Approaching Overbought (Weekly (T/F) https://www.unum.capital/post/hidmnd 5x Overbought (Weekly (T/F) https://www.unum.capital/post/fiveobo Standard Bank: Actionable Areas https://www.unum.capital/post/sbkacta Mondi Plc: Actionable Areas https://www.unum.capital/post/mnpaction MTN Group: Actionable Areas https://www.unum.capital/post/mtnactionable Spar | Northam Platinum | Shoprite https://www.unum.capital/post/actionareas High Impact: U.S. Relative Sector Analysis https://www.unum.capital/post/usrelsect Richemont: Short/Long; Gap Filled + Rebound https://www.unum.capital/post/cfrebound Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term https://www.unum.capital/post/pricmt 14 Months Later It's Higher By 50% https://www.unum.capital/post/stxresfifty JSE Gold Miners: Two Charts of Interest https://www.unum.capital/post/goldmnrs Update: VanEck Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) Approaching Target https://www.unum.capital/post/gdxj-etf Update: VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX): Running 42% https://www.unum.capital/post/gdxforty Power Moves: S hoprite, African Rainbow, Impala & More... https://www.unum.capital/post/powermoves DRD Gold: Running 80 to 85%, Exceeding Price Target https://www.unum.capital/post/drd80 Missed The Research for 07 - 11 April? Catch Up Below: JSE Top 40 Index https://www.unum.capital/post/fortyneutral Trading US30: Lower by 1700 - 1900 Points https://www.unum.capital/post/dowdown Six Research Notes Which Helped Our Clients This Week https://www.unum.capital/post/noteshelp Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term https://www.unum.capital/post/pacomments Our Research, Your Opportunity: Nasdaq Rallies +10% https://www.unum.capital/post/oppspot Brent Crude Oil: Ultra Short Term Traders Score 7 to 10% https://www.unum.capital/post/brentsvn Trading US500 / S&P 500 Index / https://www.unum.capital/post/trdeus500 Trading Naspers https://www.unum.capital/post/trading-naspers Trading US Dollar / Japanese Yen https://www.unum.capital/post/yenlower Trading Sibanye Stillwater https://www.unum.capital/post/sswnineapril Market Risk Index: The Weekly Reading Is Worth Noting! https://www.unum.capital/post/weeklyrisk Trading US30 Index / Dow Jones https://www.unum.capital/post/trus30 Brent Crude Oil: Weekly Structure https://www.unum.capital/post/brntwkly Trading Richemont https://www.unum.capital/post/richerebound JSE Top 40 Extending Gains (+8% or +5800c Points) https://www.unum.capital/post/fortyextend Traders Score With FirstRand https://www.unum.capital/post/fsr13 Trading Capitec Bank https://www.unum.capital/post/capitecaa Traders, Did You Notice This? https://www.unum.capital/post/notice Trading South 32 https://www.unum.capital/post/thirtytwo Trading Silver (XAG/USD) https://www.unum.capital/post/tradingsilv Overbought...Then Lower By 3000c https://www.unum.capital/post/obo3000 Trading EUR/USD https://www.unum.capital/post/eurft Trading Spot Gold (XAU/USD) https://www.unum.capital/post/xauretreat JSE Top 40 Index: Oversold Reading Unwinds... https://www.unum.capital/post/fortyrebound Breadth Data: Oversold Goes From 40 Shares To ... https://www.unum.capital/post/breadthreward For The Session, Platinum Miners... https://www.unum.capital/post/pgmlead USD/ZAR: Ultra Short Term Sees... https://www.unum.capital/post/zarrewardrisk FirstRand Generating Cash, Rebounding 7% https://www.unum.capital/post/firstcash Prosus Generating Cash With A 5200c Rebound https://www.unum.capital/post/prosusgen April 2025: Volatility Equals Opportunity https://www.unum.capital/post/volopportunity Russell 3000 Breadth: These Charts Help Us Understand... https://www.unum.capital/post/rus3k *Helping Clients Manage Risk https://www.unum.capital/post/mngrisk *High Impact: JSE Relative Sector Ratings https://www.unum.capital/post/relasec *High Impact: U.S. Relative Sector Analysis https://www.unum.capital/post/ussectora Market Risk Index: Weekly & Monthly Time Frames https://www.unum.capital/post/riskindex S&P 500: Bear Target Reached. Post-Market Comment https://www.unum.capital/post/spybeartarget S&P 500: For Clients, This Was A Risk To Consider https://www.unum.capital/post/spyimarket Breadth: S&P 500 % Constituents Above Their 200-Day https://www.unum.capital/post/us200day Protected By Treasuries: US10Y Dips Below 3.8% https://www.unum.capital/post/usten I Was Wrong Here: Glencore Stop-Loss Breached https://www.unum.capital/post/glnstop JSE Market Breadth: After The Close https://www.unum.capital/post/breadthpost JSE Top 40 Index (-8700 Points) https://www.unum.capital/post/fortyretreat JSE Top 40 Index: Weekly Chart Analysis https://www.unum.capital/post/fortyweekly Updates: Copper | Gold | Silver | Palladium | Platinum https://www.unum.capital/post/hardcomm U.S. Sector Breadth: Leaders & Laggards https://www.unum.capital/post/ussecbrea Anglo American: Channel Resistance + Below '08 Cycle Highs https://www.unum.capital/post/anglocycle Commodity Analysis https://www.unum.capital/post/commodity-analysis From Above R80 to Below R50. Helping Clients Manage Risk https://www.unum.capital/post/whl200w Prosus: Actionable Area https://www.unum.capital/post/prxaa FirstRand: Actionable Area https://www.unum.capital/post/fsraction MTN Group: Actionable Area https://www.unum.capital/post/aamtn Shoprite: Monthly MACD Development https://www.unum.capital/post/shpmacd Standard Bank: Continues To... https://www.unum.capital/post/sbkcycle Capitec/Top 40 Ratio MACD Development https://www.unum.capital/post/cpimacd Diversified Miners: Key Level + Relative Strength https://www.unum.capital/post/minersforty Consumer Staples + Utilities: Using Sectors... https://www.unum.capital/post/staplestrength Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term https://www.unum.capital/post/pricecomments 17x Oversold (Weekly T/F) https://www.unum.capital/post/osoweekly 8x High Demand / Approaching Overbought (Weekly (T/F) https://www.unum.capital/post/hidemand8 15x High Bearish Mo / Approaching Oversold (Weekly T/F) https://www.unum.capital/post/highbear15 5 Themes That Unum Capital Clients Have Been Prepared For https://www.unum.capital/post/bigpic Missed The Prior Week's Research? (31 March - 04 April) . Catch Up Below: Higher by 50% in 16 Months https://www.unum.capital/post/fiftypercent Vodacom: Banking R10 https://www.unum.capital/post/vodpaid Technical Screen: Oversold + Potential Piercing Candles https://www.unum.capital/post/osopiercing JSE Market Breadth: Key Takeaways https://www.unum.capital/post/mktbreadth Now Lower by 29%: Model In Line & Meta Shorts Generating Cash https://www.unum.capital/post/meta24 Amidst The Volatility, There Are Opportunities To Make Money https://www.unum.capital/post/amidst Trading Capitec. For Shorts, A 16% Decline https://www.unum.capital/post/capitec16 MTN Group Shorts Generating Cash (-9%, or -1155c) https://www.unum.capital/post/mtneleven Impala Platinum Day Two of Generating Cash https://www.unum.capital/post/impdaytwo Strategy Alert: Standard Bank https://www.unum.capital/post/stratsbk Trading Absa https://www.unum.capital/post/abgprob Strategy Alert: Aspen Pharmacare https://www.unum.capital/post/strat-aspen Thungela Gives Gives S/T Traders A 600c Gain https://www.unum.capital/post/tga600 JSE Technical Summary: Mid & Large Caps https://www.unum.capital/post/jsetechsum Truworths: Stop-Loss Breached. Idea Now Closed https://www.unum.capital/post/trusl Trading Capitec Bank https://www.unum.capital/post/cpilower Trading Foschini: Levels of Buying Interest https://www.unum.capital/post/tfglvls MTN Group: Shorts Generating Cash (-4.9%, or -626c) https://www.unum.capital/post/mtnlower Impala Platinum Paying Active Traders! https://www.unum.capital/post/impala340 Trading Vodacom https://www.unum.capital/post/vodgain Trading Northam Platinum https://www.unum.capital/post/tradenph Trading Note: Impala Platinum https://www.unum.capital/post/tnimpala Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term https://www.unum.capital/post/pacommentary Getting Paid With Thungela Resources https://www.unum.capital/post/tgaprofit Shoprite: Trading 1000c Higher https://www.unum.capital/post/shp1000c [Offshore] Altria: Running +9% https://www.unum.capital/post/altria-running JSE Market Breadth: Key Takeaways https://www.unum.capital/post/sabreadth Buy Idea https://www.unum.capital/post/buy-unlock Unum Capital Commentary For Bloomberg https://www.unum.capital/post/unumbbg How To Bank 100 Points (S&P 500 Index) https://www.unum.capital/post/100points Top 10 Weakest Shares / Low Demand https://www.unum.capital/post/bottomtenweak Top 10 Strongest Shares / High Demand https://www.unum.capital/post/toptenstrong JSE Top 40 Index: Retreating From Inflection Point https://www.unum.capital/post/topfortyindex Thungela Resources: Have You Considered This Angle https://www.unum.capital/post/thungela-angle Brent Crude Oil Running +7.8% https://www.unum.capital/post/crude-7pct Global Utilities. Positioned For Alpha (3-Month High) https://www.unum.capital/post/jxialpha Trading USD/ZAR https://www.unum.capital/post/tradusdzar Van Eck Gold Miners ETF Running +33% https://www.unum.capital/post/gdxetf-running Trading The Numbers: U.S Non-Farm Payrolls https://www.unum.capital/post/tradingpayroll Market Risk Index: Weekly & Monthly Time Frames https://www.unum.capital/post/mktrisk [High Impact] JSE Relative Sector Ratings https://www.unum.capital/post/sectorsum [High Impact] U.S. Relative Sector Analysis https://www.unum.capital/post/ussectr US Tech: Why Ratio Charts Are A Part Of Our Process https://www.unum.capital/post/positioning The Bigger Picture: 5 Themes That Unum Capital Clients... https://www.unum.capital/post/5themes Trading S&P 500 Index https://www.unum.capital/post/spxchannel Yields Down, Price Up. Well Done Bond Buyers https://www.unum.capital/post/yields-down Gold: Long Term Inflection Point https://www.unum.capital/post/gold-trend U.S. Sector Breadth: Leaders & Laggards https://www.unum.capital/post/ussctbreadth Trading Richemont https://www.unum.capital/post/trade-cfr Trading Sasol https://www.unum.capital/post/trading-sasol Trading British American Tobacco https://www.unum.capital/post/trading-british Trading Naspers & Prosus https://www.unum.capital/post/npnprx Trading JSE Insurers https://www.unum.capital/post/trd-insurers '...And Then I Sold The Share For A Profit...' https://www.unum.capital/post/foraprofit Investec: Unwinding From Long Term Resistance https://www.unum.capital/post/inlzoom Sibanye: After a 40% Rally, Here's What The Data Says https://www.unum.capital/post/sibanye-forty Telkom: Well Done Longs. Now 63% Higher + Overbought https://www.unum.capital/post/telkom-sixty Glencore Relative To Copper https://www.unum.capital/post/glencore-copper Richards Bay Coal Futures https://www.unum.capital/post/rbcoal JSE Gold Miners: After a 60% Rally, Here's What The Data Says https://www.unum.capital/post/minersixty These 3 Shares Closed In Overbought Territory https://www.unum.capital/post/3xobo Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term https://www.unum.capital/post/pamodel Zooming Out: Harmony Gold https://www.unum.capital/post/zoom-har Zooming Out: PGM Miners / Top 40 Index https://www.unum.capital/post/zoom-pgm 8x High Demand / Approaching Overbought (Weekly (T/F) https://www.unum.capital/post/bullmoweek 8x High Bearish Mo / Approaching Oversold (Weekly T/F) https://www.unum.capital/post/hibearmoweek Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital Archive / Year-To Date Research Links: 14 April to 18 April https://www.unum.capital/post/research-14-18-april-2025 7 April to 11 April https://www.unum.capital/post/research-07-11-april-2025 31 March to 04 April https://www.unum.capital/post/research-31-march-04-april-2025 24 March to 28 March https://www.unum.capital/post/research-24-28-march-2025 17 March to 21 March https://www.unum.capital/post/research-17-21-march-2025 10 March to 14 March https://www.unum.capital/post/research-10-14-march-2025 02 January to 07 March https://www.unum.capital/post/latest-research-january-2025
- FX/Currency Trends
Trade FX/Currencies with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail tradingdesk@unum.co.za Data as of Friday, 25 April at 08h53 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- +80 Shares: Price Action Commentary
Trade JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Thursday 24 April. These are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- JSE Top 40 Index: Bullish Tone But Ultra Short Term Momentum Waning
Trade the Top 40 Index with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Coming into this week, the price action model pointed to a 'STRONG' 7-day trend combined with a 'BULLISH' 14-day trend. It also highlighted the potential for the index to fail to hold it's range highs while the breadth data pointed to some pockets of the market developing overbought and approaching overbought conditions. Further analysis of the candle structure for the first two days of the week shows the development of long upper tails at the top of the range. This points to short term selling pressure following an massive short term advanced. Chart as of Thursday, 24 April at 12h47 PREVIOUS POST (MONDAY 21 APRIL): 12000 Points The index is higher by 12,000 Points, with the move in line with the 'Oversold' reading, having closed in 'Strong' regime on Thursday. Scroll (further) down to read our original post. As of Thursday's close (17 April), the Monthly (M), Weekly (W) and Daily (D) regimes were as follows: By the end of the week saw further upside follow-though, with the index extending it's gains while the oversold conditions as of the close on Friday 04 April continued to unwind. We also saw the index rebound sharply off the channel support, as highlighted in the previous note (scroll down to view). As per the note coming into this past week, our nearest, next-best probability price action as per the price action model was to buy on a pullback. At Wednesday's highs, the index now traded 16% above the channel support and is 12000 points higher than the low seen on Monday 07 April. It should also be noted that the index is move in line with the oversold reading as per the price action model as well as strategy alerting traders to look for support at the prior swing lows. JSE Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of the close on Thursday 17 April 2025 Previous Post (Saturday 05 April at 14h37) : JSE Top 40 Index: Weekly Chart Analysis JSE Top 40 Index Analysis: Short Term (1 to 10 days): The short-term reading is Oversold . This suggests that the index has likely experienced a significant decline and may be due for a rebound or consolidation. However, being oversold alone doesn't guarantee an immediate reversal. Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks): The medium-term reading is Weak . This implies that the index has been trending downwards over the past few weeks, indicating underlying selling pressure . Long Term (5 to 8 weeks): The long-term reading is Neutral . This suggests that over a broader timeframe, the index hasn't established a clear upward or downward trend. Overall Assessment: Taking into account the weighted importance (short-term being the most significant), the JSE Top 40 Index exhibits deteriorating price action. While the oversold reading in the short term might offer a temporary bounce, the weakness in the medium term, coupled with the lack of a strong long-term trend, suggests caution. The recent price action is more aligned with the medium-term weakness than the potential for a short-term recovery. JSE TOP 40 WEEKLY CHART Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- U.S. 10-Year Yield: Sharp Rise; Now Potential Bull Flag
Trade Fixed Income ETFs with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Our last note on Friday 04 April considered the price action model reading where the SHORT TERM stated: " The reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a buy/long position " while the LONG TERM stated: " ...there is a probability of a small rebound ". Scroll down to view the time-stamped reading. From below 3.9%, the yield subsequently rose, moving to 4.59% within 5 days! A massive move in the fixed income space! A brief update, on a development I am noticing: The potential development of a bull flag formation . Previous Post (Friday 04 April, 06h54 - South African Time) + Bear Flag Structure Playing Out Edit: During Friday's U.S trading session, the yield traded as low as 3.86% Last week Friday we discussed the bear flag structure which implies the potential for downside continuation. Over the course of the week, the U.S 10-Year Bond Yield has traded from 4.25% to 3.97%. Lower bond yields mean that bond prices have risen. This move is a continuation of our view at the beginning of this year which recognized the overbought conditions in bond yields i.e. looking for a higher bond prices. Well done to clients who may have allocated a portfolio to treasuries and participated in being long bonds! Chart below is 'current' (as of Friday 04 April at 06h50, South African Time) The current price action model reading is as follows: Previous Post (Friday 28 March, 19h28, US Trading Session): Yield Down, Price Up. Well Done Bond Buyers The move lower in bond yields is in line with our previous view (driven by the model/Tactical Trading Guide) that yields had become overbought (above 4.7%) in the short and medium term and that a risk of a bearish reversal was possible. At current levels we are seeing a potential bear flag technical formation support by poor candle structure on the yield. US 10-Year Bond Yield Chart as of Friday 28 March (U.S. Trading Session) Previous Post: U.S. 10-YEAR BOND YIELD Bullish Momentum However, Approaching Short Term Overbought (08 January 2025) Overall Summary The image presents a price action analysis for the US 10-Year Bond Yield, focusing on three timeframes: Short Term (1-10 days), Medium Term (2-4 weeks), and Long Term (5-8 weeks). Key Observations 7-Day Trend: High Bullish Momentum, Approaching Overbought 14-Day Trend: Very Bullish Short Term (1-10 days): Price Action Reading: Very Strong Move, Buyers in Control, but Don't Chase - May Fail to Hold the Highs; If it doesn't hold, the 8-EMA may be a short-sell target. Medium Term (2-4 weeks): Price Action Reading: Aggressive Buying but Do Not Chase - Look for Overshoot or Failure to Hold Prior Session Highs to Short-Sell Back to the 8-EMA. Long Term (5-8 weeks): Price Action Reading: Attempting to Advance Whilst in a Bullish Regime - If it Pulls Back, Use Prior Session Close or 8-EMA as an Accumulation Zone. Interpretation Bullish Momentum: The price of the US 10-Year Bond Yield has been rising strongly in the short term. Caution: The momentum is approaching overbought territory, suggesting a potential reversal. Trading Strategy: Short-term traders: Be cautious of chasing the price higher. Look for signs of weakness (like a failure to hold recent highs) to potentially short-sell. Medium-term traders: Avoid chasing aggressive buying. Look for opportunities to short-sell if the price overshoots or fails to hold prior session highs. Long-term traders: Maintain a bullish bias. If the price pulls back, consider accumulating (buying) near the prior session close or the 8-EMA support level. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital










