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  • Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term

    Trade JSE Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Tuesday 22 April. These are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading GBP/JPY

    Trade   FX: GBP/JPY   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • EUR/USD: Weekly Overbought + Extended vs Key EMA's

    Trade   FX: EUR/USD   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post: Further to last week's post: The pair is trading at it's most extended vs 75-day EMA in over a decade. This points to the pair trading at/near a short term overbought range. Previous Post (10 April): EUR/USD: High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought Previous Post (08 April) EUR/USD: Strong upside follow-through over the past 10 weeks EUR/USD Daily Chart as of Tuesday 08 April at 05h37 Previous Post (Monday, 20 January at 13h38): EUR/USD Attempting A Bullish Reversal Following An Aggressive Sell-Off Analyst's Price Action Model Let's break down the EUR/USD trend analysis based on the price action model: Overall Trend: Long Term: Persistently Weak But Monitor Lower Times For Rebound Potential Short-Term Trends: 7-Day Trend: Neutral 14-Day Trend: Rangebound Short-Term Trading Opportunities: No explicit short-term buy/long position opportunities are indicated in the image. Medium-Term Outlook (2 to 4 weeks): Strong Attempting At Bullish Reversal Following Aggressive Sell-Off Long-Term Outlook (5 to 8 weeks): Persistently Weak But Monitor Lower Times For Rebound Potential Summary: The EUR/USD pair is currently in a long-term downtrend. In the short term, the 7-day trend is neutral, while the 14-day trend is rangebound. There is no explicit signal for a short-term buy or long position. However, the medium-term outlook suggests a potential bullish reversal following a recent sell-off. In the long term, the pair is expected to remain weak, but with potential for rebounds. ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that   are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which   is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis for any tradeable instrument across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • African Rainbow Minerals Running 35% + Updated Model Reading

    Trade African Rainbow Minerals   with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Current (Live) Price Action Model Reading Discussed seven weeks ago (Wednesday 26-Feb) at 13390c. Of course, it wasn't the exact low and clients had an even better opportunity to buy as low as ~12800c. Today it printed a high of 17814c Well done to clients who latched onto the opportunity. It's also worth noting the time-stamped model reading on the same day (end of day 26 February), identifying the attractive technical position. Previous Post (Wednesday 26 February): Trading African Rainbow Minerals: Live Model Reading (Oversold/Attractive) As the price continues to get sold off aggressively, this model reading might be worth noting. Previous Post (Tuesday, 25 February End of Day): My comment a few days ago above R167 was: "short term traders, consider taking profits. It's R140 now!" Previous Post Running +9%. Edit: Closed the day very strong & now running +10% ARI Daily Chart as of end of day. If you are an ultra short term trader, then a move of this size could be an opportunity bank/take profit, however, for medium term traders, we could be in the early stages of a bigger move. Also moving perfectly in line with the price action model reading (scrolls down to view). Previous Post (Sunday, 12 January for Monday 13 January): African Rainbow Minerals: Breaking Out On A Relative Basis (Bullish Setup) African Rainbow Minerals Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index African Rainbow Minerals (ARI) Analyst's Price Action Model The 7-day trend is strong, and the 14-day trend is rangebound. Q: What is the overall trend for African Rainbow Minerals in the short term (1 to 10 trading days)? A: attempting a bullish reversal following a consolidation phase. This suggests a potential upward move in the short term. Q: What is the medium-term trend (2 to 4 weeks) for African Rainbow Minerals? A: The medium-term trend is attempting a rebound following a downward trend. This indicates a potential upward movement, but it may consolidate further before continuing higher. Q: What is the long-term trend (5 to 8 weeks) for African Rainbow Minerals? A: The long-term trend is range-bound in a weak regime. A recovery buy or long position is triggered on strong bids and a break of the current range high. This suggests a potential upward move, but it may be range-bound for a while. Q: What are the key takeaways from this price action analysis? A: The short-term trend is bullish, suggesting a potential upward move. The medium-term trend is attempting a rebound, but may consolidate further before continuing higher. The long-term trend is range-bound, but a recovery buy or long position is triggered on strong bids and a break of the current range high. Q: What are some potential strategies for trading African Rainbow Minerals based on this analysis? A: Short-term traders: May look to buy on dips or breakouts in the short term, as the trend is bullish. Medium-term traders: May look to buy on a break of the current resistance level, as the medium-term trend is attempting a rebound. Long-term traders: May look to buy on strong bids and a break of the current range high, as the long-term trend is range-bound. Previous Post: African Rainbow Minerals: A +29% Rally; Now Short Term Overbought Wednesday, 02 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market (06h11) Ticker: ARI Significant rally off the swing lows of R155 to a high R201.98 during yesterday's session. Short term traders, take profit or trim some of your position. Previous Post: Wednesday, 13 September 2024. 11h55 The share has now rallied by R37, with a high of R192.64 today. Short term/active traders will use these advances to reduce exposure and potentially re-enter at lower levels. The high was also into my actionable trading zone (sell/reduce), pulling back to R187 on an intraday basis. Scroll down to see the previous (+original) posts which were communicated to clients of Unum Capital. The chart is 'current' Previous Post: 13 September 2024 Update / Pre-Market Ticker: ARI Previous Post: 12 September Real-Time: 10h21 Ticker: ARI The share has found support at the previous swing low and is rebounding from deeply oversold conditions. This setup was discussed on Monday, 02 September. The chart is 'current' Pre-Market Ticker: ARI As per my report on Monday, 02 September (Active Trading Plan), the share is approaching key levels i.e. the previous breakout range and the previous swing lows. Also note the following, yesterday we saw a 'doji' candle being printed, which may be early clues of a slowdown in downward momentum. Note: Event risk in the form of earnings at present (Friday, 06 September). The slide from my report is shown below. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Old Mutual Running 17% & Above 1100c

    Further Update: Old Mutual. Sharp rally off Wednesday's (09/04) lows, from 937 to above 1100c today. The share was a NON-COMPREHENSIVE list of shares which clients were alert to coming into the week commencing 07 April. Updates Absa. Sharp rally off Monday's (07/04) lows, from 14700c to 17000c. Old Mutual. Sharp rally off Wednesday's (09/04) lows, from 937 to 1033c. Bidvest. Sharp rally off Monday's (07/04) lows, from 20200c to 22800c. Sappi. Sharp rally off Monday's (07/04) lows, from 2700c to 3600c. Previous Post (Sunday, 06 April) April 2025: Volatility Equals Opportunity Talking Points: Macro Developments Currently Driving Sentiment/Outlooks What We Know Valuation Volatility Equals Opportunity Where Is The Bottom? / Timing Macro Developments Currently Driving Sentiment/Outlooks | This note runs the risk of communicating items you may already be familiar with. For example, you will be aware that global financial markets are under pressure. You will be aware that the trade war via tariffs are one of, if not the main driver of the decline in risk assets. You will also be aware that volatility is high and that most risk assets have sold off. The aforementioned, are some of the negative factors that are at play. What We Know | As analysts and traders, we will never have all of the information at hand in order to make a decision. In some cases, we will have 55% of the information while in other case, will have 78% of the information etc. What we do know is that lower prices are presenting us with opportunities to (1) be active and take advantage of volatility and both the buy (long) and sell (short) side and (2) Take advantage of lower prices to build medium to long term portfolios (both U.S and global). What we also recognize is that at an index level, the All Share and Top 40 indices are slightly off their long term highs, but underneath the surface there has been some have been businesses that have seen their share prices decline significantly over several weeks and months. Valuation | In the short term, valuation isn't a very good timing tool however, over the long term, it does add value and can help traders and investors accumulate pieces of businesses that have the ability to 're-rate' over several months and years. While it is a crude way of measuring value, it does help us identify potentially cheap stocks (to buy) or expensive ones (to sell). A quick screen will help to uncover potential opportunities. Take Absa , for example. At Friday's close the share traded on a price-to-earnings ratio of 6x , with a dividend yield of 8% . It also sported a price-to-book value of 0.82 . SA industrial group Bidvest's price-to-book ratio is at 1.98x , which is the lowest since October 2020. Old Mutual trades on 6 times it's trailing earnings, with a dividend yield of 7.6% . Cyclical share Sappi trades on a 4 price-to-earnings ratio and a 7.2% dividend yield . This is a non-comprehensive list and merely just examples of shares leaning toward fundamental value. Volatility Equals Opportunity | The spike in volatility is presenting traders and long term investors with opportunities to smartly allocate capital to take advantage of falling prices . Where is The Bottom? / Timing The Market |  With prices moving at a rapid pace, levels have and are being breached with new support and resistance zone being tested. In some case, support is taken out and reclaimed, creating an opportunity for the fast-fingered trader to generate cash. I'll be the first to admit that I don't know where the exact bottom is, however, I'll be monitoring real-time developments in price action in an attempt to ascertain whether the momentum is slowing down or accelerating as well as what the price action is signaling. Bottom Line | The next few days and weeks may present an opportunity gradually phase in positions i.e. rand or dollar-cost average into a medium to long term portfolio. The current sell-off represents some businesses going 'on sale', with prices that may offer value for a 'limited period only'. Others might have further to fall, which will offer opportunities at a later stage. Note: With prices moving fast, it might be that not all ideas/opportunity will be communicated in written format via the Unum Capital website. To avoid missing opportunities, open an account and connect directly with our traders on the desk. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Old Mutual Running 17% & Above 1100c

    Further Update: Old Mutual. Sharp rally off Wednesday's (09/04) lows, from 937 to above 1100c today. The share was a NON-COMPREHENSIVE list of shares which clients were alert to coming into the week commencing 07 April. Updates Absa. Sharp rally off Monday's (07/04) lows, from 14700c to 17000c. Old Mutual. Sharp rally off Wednesday's (09/04) lows, from 937 to 1033c. Bidvest. Sharp rally off Monday's (07/04) lows, from 20200c to 22800c. Sappi. Sharp rally off Monday's (07/04) lows, from 2700c to 3600c. Previous Post (Sunday, 06 April) April 2025: Volatility Equals Opportunity Talking Points: Macro Developments Currently Driving Sentiment/Outlooks What We Know Valuation Volatility Equals Opportunity Where Is The Bottom? / Timing Macro Developments Currently Driving Sentiment/Outlooks | This note runs the risk of communicating items you may already be familiar with. For example, you will be aware that global financial markets are under pressure. You will be aware that the trade war via tariffs are one of, if not the main driver of the decline in risk assets. You will also be aware that volatility is high and that most risk assets have sold off. The aforementioned, are some of the negative factors that are at play. What We Know | As analysts and traders, we will never have all of the information at hand in order to make a decision. In some cases, we will have 55% of the information while in other case, will have 78% of the information etc. What we do know is that lower prices are presenting us with opportunities to (1) be active and take advantage of volatility and both the buy (long) and sell (short) side and (2) Take advantage of lower prices to build medium to long term portfolios (both U.S and global). What we also recognize is that at an index level, the All Share and Top 40 indices are slightly off their long term highs, but underneath the surface there has been some have been businesses that have seen their share prices decline significantly over several weeks and months. Valuation | In the short term, valuation isn't a very good timing tool however, over the long term, it does add value and can help traders and investors accumulate pieces of businesses that have the ability to 're-rate' over several months and years. While it is a crude way of measuring value, it does help us identify potentially cheap stocks (to buy) or expensive ones (to sell). A quick screen will help to uncover potential opportunities. Take Absa , for example. At Friday's close the share traded on a price-to-earnings ratio of 6x , with a dividend yield of 8% . It also sported a price-to-book value of 0.82 . SA industrial group Bidvest's price-to-book ratio is at 1.98x , which is the lowest since October 2020. Old Mutual trades on 6 times it's trailing earnings, with a dividend yield of 7.6% . Cyclical share Sappi trades on a 4 price-to-earnings ratio and a 7.2% dividend yield . This is a non-comprehensive list and merely just examples of shares leaning toward fundamental value. Volatility Equals Opportunity | The spike in volatility is presenting traders and long term investors with opportunities to smartly allocate capital to take advantage of falling prices . Where is The Bottom? / Timing The Market |  With prices moving at a rapid pace, levels have and are being breached with new support and resistance zone being tested. In some case, support is taken out and reclaimed, creating an opportunity for the fast-fingered trader to generate cash. I'll be the first to admit that I don't know where the exact bottom is, however, I'll be monitoring real-time developments in price action in an attempt to ascertain whether the momentum is slowing down or accelerating as well as what the price action is signaling. Bottom Line | The next few days and weeks may present an opportunity gradually phase in positions i.e. rand or dollar-cost average into a medium to long term portfolio. The current sell-off represents some businesses going 'on sale', with prices that may offer value for a 'limited period only'. Others might have further to fall, which will offer opportunities at a later stage. Note: With prices moving fast, it might be that not all ideas/opportunity will be communicated in written format via the Unum Capital website. To avoid missing opportunities, open an account and connect directly with our traders on the desk. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • 3 Shares: Deteriorating Candle Structure / Upward Momentum Slowing

    {Exclusive Content / Premium Post} Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Preferred Strategies & Setups To Generate Cash Flow (Click To Enlarge) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Global Market Risk Index

    Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Updated as of Tuesday 22 April: Monthly Chart - continues to unwind from neutral , now into weak, and heading into high bearish momentum. Reversing From Weekly Oversold. The reversal out of the 'EXTREME FEAR' position (see lower panel) reflects the recent rebound out of deeply oversold short term conditions for risk assets i.e. stocks/equities. Most recently (Wednesday 09 April at ) we highlighted the index trading in a deeply oversold range which coincided with the recent ultra short term lows for the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite. Chart as of Thursday 17 April at 12h51. Previous Post: US 500 / US30: Sharp Rally Off Risk Reading The chart below highlights the reading of the market risk index on Wednesday 09 April at 10h16. From around this level, risk assets rallied sharply, coinciding with the deeply negative sentiment reading. Well done to clients who recognized the risk and took advantage of the opportunity to deploy capital! S&P 500 / US 500: As noted on Wednesday after at 16h07 (South African Time) Previous Post (Wednesday 09 April, 10h16): The Market Risk Index Is Worth Noting! *Weekly Time Frame* - Current *Monthly Time Frame* - Current The indicator is a custom-built risk and sentiment index, designed to assess market risk appetite, including whether sentiment is at an extreme position (i.e. excessively bullish or excessively bearish). Components: Copper: Copper often serves as a proxy for global economic activity. A decline in copper prices could signal slowing economic growth, increasing risk. High Beta vs Low Beta: High beta stocks tend to be more volatile than low beta stocks. A widening spread between high and low beta returns might indicate increased risk aversion. Growth vs Value: Growth stocks typically outperform value stocks in bull markets. A shift towards value stocks could suggest investors are becoming more cautious. EM Currencies: Emerging market currencies can be sensitive to risk appetite. A weakening of EM currencies could signal increased risk aversion. AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar is often used as a proxy for global risk sentiment. A decline in AUD/USD could indicate increased risk aversion. Consumer Staples vs Consumer Discretionary: Consumer staples are generally considered defensive assets. A shift towards consumer staples could suggest investors are seeking safety. Semiconductors vs S&P 500: The semiconductor sector is cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. Underperformance of semiconductors relative to the broader market could signal increased risk. Russell 2000 ETF: This ETF tracks small-cap stocks, which are generally considered riskier than large-cap stocks. Underperformance of the Russell 2000 could suggest increased risk aversion. U.S. Dollar Index (Inverse): A strengthening US Dollar often signals a flight to safety, suggesting increased risk aversion.

  • US30 / Dow Jones: Short Term Traders Grab 3800 Points

    Trade the U.S. INDICES with Unum Capital To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The red dashed horizontal lines at 40289 and 40653 (unchanged from original post) was your resistance/sell-re-entry range. It has given traders two opportunities to sell into, with the index lower again by ~1600 points! This brings the gains to ~3800 points in total. Chart as of Monday, 21 April at 17h39. Previous Post (10 April) US30: Into The Sell Range, Now Lower 1700 to 1900 Points The horizontal lines at 40289 and 40653 (unchanged from prior post) was your resistance/sell-re-entry range. Now lower between 1700 and 1900 points! US30 Chart as of Thursday 10 April at 18h44 (S/African Time / U.S. Trading Session) Previous Post (Thursday 09 April at 06h26): Trading US30 / Dow Jones Industrial Average The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30 Index) is current lower by around 5000 points since our last post on Thursday 13 March where we discussed the developments on the monthly charts , specifically highlighting the MACD indicator. Yesterday's session saw a continuation of Monday's rally with the price finding resistance into the declining 8-day EMA. The other key moving averages also remain in a downward trend i.e. the 21-day EMA and 50-day EMA. The 75-day EMA 21-Week EMA have also started to turn lower reflecting a turn in the medium term trend. The candle structure reflects excessive selling pressure, with the price having turned lower sharply over the past week. The break lower coincided with a re-test of the key 200-day moving average. Note that the price is nearing a re-test of the 200-week moving average , a level that was last tested in September 2022, which at the time, saw a break lower and a reclaimed for a recovering. The overshoot of the 200-week moving average would also coincide with a re-test of the previous breakout level. Highlighted on the chart are key medium term support levels. US30 Daily Chart as of Wednesday 08 April at 06h26 Previous Post (Thursday, 13 March at 06h14). U.S. Indices: Monthly MACD Developments It's worth noting that all 3 indices have a pending bearish MACD crossover as per their monthly charts. Monthly Timeframe Significance: Using a monthly timeframe means these signals are long-term. Therefore, a bearish signal on a monthly chart can indicate a potentially significant and prolonged downtrend. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) DJIA Monthly Chart as of Thursday, 13 March 06h16 S&P 500 Index (US500) US500 Monthly Chart as of Thursday, 13 March 06h14 Nasdaq 100 Index (US100) US100 Monthly Chart as of Thursday, 13 March at 06h17 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Actionable Areas: Amplats, Implats, Northam Platinum

    Trade   JSE Platinum Miners   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Alternatively, click here to get started with a live or demo account: https://www.unum.capital/trading-services Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital Published: Post-Market (Thursday, 17 April 2025) / Pre-Market (Tuesday, 21 April 2025)

  • How To: Trade Naspers

    Trade   Naspers/Prosus   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za NASPERS has rebounded from an ultra short term oversold range, with the 200-day having been a level at which buyers took control. Now the share trades in a NEUTRAL regime , having retraced roughly 50% of it's move from the peak seen in late February to the low on 07 April. Where is the next (best probability) level to buy, and why? BLUE/TURQUOISE DASHED LINES ---- This level represents the current 61.8% Fibonacci retracement area from the recent swing low to Thursday's high. Where is the next (best probability) level to sell, and why? RED DASHED LINES ---- This level represents the upper boundary of the channel, at which it could also then be trading in an ultra short term overbought range. Recently, Naspers was featured on both the buy (manual & automated) and sell side (automated). See the chart with time-stamped references below: Previous Post: Prosus: Generating Cash With A 9200c Rebound The share traded right in the middle of the R720 to R730 range with a print of R725 before rebounding to a high of R817. Previous Post (Saturday, 05 April, 07h43) Actionable Area: Prosus N.V Prosus N.V (PRX).  The share has retreated from the upper boundary of it's rising channel, encountering distribution over the last 4 weeks. The 75-day EMA and 21-week EMA continue to trend up, however, the deteriorating candle structure does not rule out a move toward the lower boundary of the channel, which is in line with the rising 200-day SMA as well as the 50-week EMA. This comes in at approximately 72000c to 73000c. This range is subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. Last Close: 81094c   Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Click(s) Here To Take Profit

    Trade   Clicks Group   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za If you bought Clicks in the actionable area, then you are in the money by 6000c. The share traded into the next best-probability buy range which was followed by a sharp rally. Recently, clients of Unum Capital were alerted to a trading opportunity in Clicks. The link to the original post is as follows: https://www.unum.capital/post/click-quality Our thesis at the time was driven by the appealing (pending) reward-to-risk, supported the price action model model which stated the following: Short Term (approx. 1 to 10 days): "The reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position" Medium Term (approx. 2 to 4 weeks): "Aggressive selling underway. Wait for the lower time frames to stabilize". Long Term (approx. 5 to 8 weeks): "The share has been weak, with selling pressure however, there is a probability of a small rebound" Where to from here? The share closed the last session in ' HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT ' regime. This means that it has experienced a strong rally over the short term. Where is the next (best probability) level to buy, and why? Should the price immediately retrace from current levels, the rising 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) as well as the 75-day exponential moving average (EMA) is the next best-probability re-accumulation range. The year-to-date VWAP is in a similar range. BLUE/TURQUOISE DASHED LINES ------- Where is the next (best probability) level to sell, and why? Should the price continue to immediately advance from current levels, the share is likely to face resistance (1) at or just above the prior swing highs (best probability R405 to R412) , (2) in addition, the share will likely be extended to the upside versus both it's 8-day and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMA). It is also likely to be trading in a short term overbought range. RED DASHED LINES ------- Zooming out further, R411 to R427 is an extreme range, from both a technical and fundamental valuation perspective. Previous Post (end of day, 18 March): Clicks Group: Quality Company Approaching Buy Range + Alert To Model Readings. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

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