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  • JSE Top 40 Index: 9000 Point Rally; From Oversold To Neutral

    Trade the Top 40 Index with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za As of Friday's close (11 April), the Monthly, Weekly and Daily regimes were as follows: By the end of the week saw further upside follow-though, with the index extending it's gains while the oversold conditions as of last week Friday's close continued to unwind. We also saw the index rebound sharply off the channel support, as highlighted in the previous note (scroll down to view). As per the note coming into this past week, our nearest, next-best probability price action as per the price action model was to buy on a pullback. The index now trades 11% above the channel support and is 9000 points higher than the low seen on Monday. It should also be noted that the index is move in line with the oversold reading as per the price action model as well as strategy alerting traders to look for support at the prior swing lows. JSE Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of the close on Friday 11 April 2025 Top 40: Zooming In.... Previous Post (Saturday 05 April at 14h37) : JSE Top 40 Index: Weekly Chart Analysis JSE Top 40 Index Analysis: Short Term (1 to 10 days):   The short-term reading is Oversold . This suggests that the index has likely experienced a significant decline and may be due for a rebound or consolidation. However, being oversold alone doesn't guarantee an immediate reversal. Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks):  The medium-term reading is Weak . This implies that the index has been trending downwards over the past few weeks, indicating underlying selling pressure . Long Term (5 to 8 weeks):  The long-term reading is Neutral . This suggests that over a broader timeframe, the index hasn't established a clear upward or downward trend. Overall Assessment: Taking into account the weighted importance (short-term being the most significant), the JSE Top 40 Index exhibits deteriorating  price action. While the oversold reading in the short term might offer a temporary bounce, the weakness in the medium term, coupled with the lack of a strong long-term trend, suggests caution. The recent price action is more aligned with the medium-term weakness than the potential for a short-term recovery. JSE TOP 40 WEEKLY CHART Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • 5x Shares: Overbought On The (Weekly T/Frame)

    Trade JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Screen as of end of day on Friday 11 April 2025 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • 4x Shares: High Demand / Approaching Overbought (Weekly T/Frame)

    Trade JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Screen as of end of day Friday 11 April 2025. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • JSE Market Breadth: Considerable Recovery

    Trade   JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Comparing this week's readings to last week's, we observe a significant shift in market conditions.  The number of constituents in oversold territory has dropped dramatically from 40 to 0. Similarly, those with high bearish momentum approaching oversold have decreased substantially. Conversely, there is a notable increase in the number of constituents in the neutral and strong categories. Additionally, we now see constituents in the high bullish momentum/approaching overbought and overbought zones, which were absent last week. Last Week's Readings (Total Constituents: 98): Oversold:  40 constituents High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold:  23 constituents Weak:  19 constituents Neutral:  12 constituents Strong:  4 constituents High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought:  0 constituents Overbought:  0 constituents Last week's readings indicated a significantly bearish market sentiment. A large majority of the constituents (40 + 23 = 63) were in oversold or approaching oversold territory, suggesting a potential near-term buying opportunity as these stocks might be due for a rebound. The absence of stocks in overbought conditions further supported this idea for a potential bounce. This Week's Readings (Total Constituents: 100): Oversold:  0 constituents High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold:  2 constituents Weak:  30 constituents Neutral:  47 constituents Strong:  14 constituents High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought:  5 constituents Overbought:  2 constituents Interpretation of Market Conditions: The shift in readings from last week to this week suggests a considerable recovery from the bearish sentiment. The decrease in oversold and near-oversold constituents indicates that the potential buying opportunity observed last week might have played out , leading to upward price movements. The increased number of constituents in the strong and approaching overbought/overbought categories now points towards a potential selling opportunity in the near term for those specific stocks, as they might be trading at levels above their intrinsic value and could be due for a correction. However, it's important to note that the largest portion of the market is now in a neutral state, suggesting a period of consolidation or indecision following the prior week's strong bearishness. In summary , the market has transitioned from a state heavily skewed towards a potential near-term buying opportunity to a more balanced condition with a significant neutral component and the emergence of potential selling opportunities in a smaller segment of the market. Previous Post (Monday 07 April): Breadth Data Helps Assess Reward-To-Risk (Oversold Goes From...) Over the weekend we published the end of week breadth data, highlighted the overwhelming number of shares which were trading in oversold territory. The data covers all shares with a market cap above R10bn. As you may have read, out of the 98, 40 was oversold, which is a rarity! As per our comment, the interpretation of the data was as follows: "The data suggests that the market is heavily skewed towards oversold conditions. This widespread oversold reading may point towards a potential near-term buying opportunity as the large number of stocks at these levels could be poised for a rebound. However, the lack of strong bullish momentum and the prevalence of bearish readings indicates that any potential recovery may be short-lived or met with resistance. In essence, the market is currently overwhelmingly bearish, with a possible short-term opportunity arising from the oversold conditions, but caution is advised due to the overall weakness." Today (Monday, 07 April) saw several shares trade lower early in the session, which was followed by strong rebounds on an intraday basis. As of today's close, only 19 shares trade in oversold territory versus the 40 after last week Friday's close. There were pockets to play in which created cash-generating opportunities for traders who took advantage of the oversold conditions. Well done if you made some money today! Previous Post (Saturday, 05 April at 06h20): JSE Market Breadth: After The Close Market Summary: The JSE Mid & Large Caps market, as indicated by the short-term trend readings of its 98 constituents, exhibits a predominantly bearish sentiment . A significant portion of the market, 40 constituents , are currently classified as oversold , while another 23  are experiencing high bearish momentum  and approaching oversold territory. This means that a substantial majority (63 out of 98) of the stocks are showing signs of weakness and potential for a near-term bounce. Conversely, there are no stocks  in the overbought  or high bullish momentum  categories, and only 4  are considered to be in a strong  uptrend. A further 12  stocks are in a neutral  position, and 19  are classified as weak . Interpretation: The data suggests that the market is heavily skewed towards oversold conditions . This widespread oversold reading may point towards a potential near-term buying opportunity  as the large number of stocks at these levels could be poised for a rebound. However, the lack of strong bullish momentum and the prevalence of bearish readings indicates that any potential recovery may be short-lived or met with resistance . In essence, the market is currently overwhelmingly bearish , with a possible short-term opportunity  arising from the oversold conditions, but caution is advised  due to the overall weakness. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • 14 Months Later It's Higher By 50%

    Trade   Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Satrix Resources ETF. 14 months later, the ETF is higher by +50% Multi-Month High + Bullish (Positive) Trend Continued Our initial view on the Satrix Resources ETF (STXRES) was published just under one year ago (13 February) in which we overlayed the ETF with the Chinese Yuan. Subsequently, the ETF experienced a sharp bullish reversal, which was followed by a call to reduce into strength. Long term, the ETF is looking to continue it's recovery as it looks to develop a change of trend (from neutral to bullish). Updated Chart as of end of day on Friday 11 April. Previous Post: Reduce Into Strength (Wednesday, 10 April 2024 | 13h56) Reading Time: 2 Minutes To trade, or open a new account, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za  | Call: 011 384 2923 Key Points The ETF is higher by 26% from the 13 February research note (see yellow vertical line) which highlighted the divergence between the price and the Chinese Yuan. Short Term Technical Rating: Overbought Previous Session Short Term Technical Rating: Overbought The ETF has advanced into a FLAT 200-WEEK SMA. The ETF is extended by 10% above it's 21-day EMA. This is the largest extension since November 2022. The ETF is approaching two key levels: (1) the previous swing high (Aug-2023) and (2) 50-61.8% Fibonacci Extension range (measured from the January 2023 high to the February 2024 low. Bottom Line: For short term traders, it may be an opportunity to reduce some of the position into this strength and key levels. Current Chart The original comment, as published on Tuesday 13 February for Unum Capital clients, is shown below (Was 5274c, now nearing 6684c). Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • VanEck Gold Miners ETF: Running +42%

    Trade Gold Miners  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za On Friday in the U.S we saw the ETF trade as high as $49.95 was 43% higher that our alert in November. Well done to clients who may have participated in the rally. The move was in line with the price action model which stated that the reward-to-risk had become attractive for a buy/long position. Previous Post: VanEck Gold Miners ETF Wednesday 13 November 2024 (21h20 / U.S Trading Session) Code: GDX Big pullback from $44 to $35.68 Now Oversold. Several Opportunities On the Screeners Tonight! - Join Us Today Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • USD/ZAR: Zooming Out. Have You Considered This Angle?

    Trade FX: USD/ZAR  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za Three and a half years ago, during September 2021, we zoomed on the USDZAR exchange rate, asking the question: "will we see a pullback or plain sailing i.e. a weaker ZAR?" Our conclusion, in the same note, was that a weaker Rand was the most likely outcome. At the time, the currency pair printed R14.73 which has since gradually trended higher, reaching R19.92 over the past few sessions. Now at just below all-time highs, the rising trend line which connects the peaks dated December 2001, January 2016 and April 2020 is a potential technical target and resistance range over the long term. This comes in at around R21.15 to R21.70. USD/ZAR Weekly Chart as of Friday 11 April at 13h05. Ref: USDZAR Monthly Chart on 18 September 2021 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • U.S. Relative Sector Analysis

    Trade   U.S. Shares & ETFs   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za High Impact *Data as of Friday 11 April (Pre-Market, U.S. Trading Session) Key Strong: Indicates outperformance relative to SPY. Neutral: Indicates performance in line with SPY. Weak: Indicates underperformance relative to SPY. Overbought: Suggests the sector might be due for a pullback. Oversold: Suggests the sector might be due for a bounce. High Bullish Momentum: Strong upward price movement (inferred from approaching overbought after a neutral/strong). High Bearish Momentum: Strong downward price movement (inferred from approaching oversold after a neutral/weak). Sector Analysis: Materials vs. SPY: Long Term: Weak Medium Term: Neutral Short Term: Weak Analysis:  This sector shows consistent weakness in both the long and short term. The neutral medium term offers a slight respite but is outweighed by the negative signals in the more heavily weighted short term. Overall, the outlook is negative with no clear signs of improvement. Communications vs. SPY: Long Term: Overbought Medium Term: Strong Short Term: Neutral Analysis:  This sector presents a mixed picture. While strong in the medium term, the neutral short term doesn't confirm continued strength. The overbought long-term status adds a layer of caution. The lack of strong short-term momentum suggests the medium-term strength may be waning. Energy vs. SPY: Long Term: Weak Medium Term: Weak Short Term: Oversold Analysis:  This sector shows persistent weakness in the long and medium terms. The oversold condition in the short term suggests a potential for a bounce, but the underlying weakness across longer timeframes indicates caution. Any short-term recovery might be temporary. Financials vs. SPY: Long Term: Strong Medium Term: Strong Short Term: Neutral Analysis:  This sector demonstrates consistent strength in both the long and medium terms. The neutral short term suggests a pause in its outperformance but doesn't negate the established strength. It remains a relatively strong sector. Industrials vs. SPY: Long Term: Neutral Medium Term: Strong Short Term: Neutral Analysis:  This sector shows strength in the medium term, but the neutral stance in both the long and short terms provides no clear directional conviction. The lack of short-term momentum following medium-term strength suggests a potential plateau. Technology vs. SPY: Long Term: Weak Medium Term: Weak Short Term: Neutral Analysis:  This sector exhibits persistent weakness in the long and medium terms. The neutral short term offers no sign of immediate recovery and keeps the overall outlook negative. Consumer Staples vs. SPY: Long Term: Strong Medium Term: Strong Short Term: Strong Analysis:  This sector displays consistent strength across all timeframes, indicating robust and sustained outperformance relative to SPY. This is one of the strongest sectors. Real Estate vs. SPY: Long Term: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral Short Term: Neutral Analysis:  This sector shows neutral performance across all timeframes, indicating it is largely moving in line with the broader market (SPY) without significant out- or underperformance. Utilities vs. SPY: Long Term: Strong Medium Term: Strong Short Term: Neutral Analysis:  This sector demonstrates consistent strength in both the long and medium terms. The neutral short term suggests a pause in its outperformance but doesn't diminish the established strength. Healthcare vs. SPY: Long Term: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral Short Term: Neutral Analysis:  This sector shows neutral performance across all timeframes, indicating it is largely moving in line with the broader market (SPY) without significant out- or underperformance. Consumer Discretionary vs. SPY: Long Term: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral Short Term: Neutral Analysis:  This sector shows neutral performance across all timeframes, indicating it is largely moving in line with the broader market (SPY) without significant out- or underperformance. Overall Summary (Weighted by Short Term): Strongest Sectors: Consumer Staples:  Consistent strength across all time frames. Financials:  Strong long and medium term, neutral short term still indicates overall strength. Utilities:  Strong long and medium term, neutral short term still indicates overall strength. Weakest Sectors: Materials:  Consistent weakness in long and short term. Technology:  Persistent weakness in long and medium term. Energy:  Weak long and medium term, only short-term oversold offers a potential temporary reprieve. Neutral Sectors (showing no strong directional bias based on the weighted analysis): Communications:  Mixed signals, short-term neutrality doesn't confirm medium-term strength. Industrials:  Medium-term strength not reflected in the short term. Real Estate:  Neutral across all timeframes. Healthcare:  Neutral across all timeframes. Consumer Discretionary:  Neutral across all timeframes. Conclusion: Based on the weighted analysis prioritizing the short term, Consumer Staples, Financials, and Utilities appear to be the strongest sectors. Materials, Technology, and Energy show the most pronounced weakness. The remaining sectors are currently exhibiting neutral performance, suggesting they are moving in line with the broader market trends. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • 📌Research: 07 - 11 April 2025

    To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za To kick off the week, the following notes have been published. Certain notes have been compiled during the last two days of last week (03/04 and 04/04) and reflects prices as of the time of research/writing. Additional notes will be added to this page throughout the course of the week, as and when key developments and opportunities are identified. JSE Top 40 Index https://www.unum.capital/post/fortyneutral Trading US30: Lower by 1700 - 1900 Points https://www.unum.capital/post/dowdown Six Research Notes Which Helped Our Clients This Week https://www.unum.capital/post/noteshelp Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term https://www.unum.capital/post/pacomments Our Research, Your Opportunity: Nasdaq Rallies +10% https://www.unum.capital/post/oppspot Brent Crude Oil: Ultra Short Term Traders Score 7 to 10% https://www.unum.capital/post/brentsvn Trading US500 / S&P 500 Index / https://www.unum.capital/post/trdeus500 Trading Naspers https://www.unum.capital/post/trading-naspers Trading US Dollar / Japanese Yen https://www.unum.capital/post/yenlower Trading Sibanye Stillwater https://www.unum.capital/post/sswnineapril Market Risk Index: The Weekly Reading Is Worth Noting! https://www.unum.capital/post/weeklyrisk Trading US30 Index / Dow Jones https://www.unum.capital/post/trus30 Brent Crude Oil: Weekly Structure https://www.unum.capital/post/brntwkly Trading Richemont https://www.unum.capital/post/richerebound JSE Top 40 Extending Gains (+8% or +5800c Points) https://www.unum.capital/post/fortyextend Traders Score With FirstRand https://www.unum.capital/post/fsr13 Trading Capitec Bank https://www.unum.capital/post/capitecaa Traders, Did You Notice This? https://www.unum.capital/post/notice Trading South 32 https://www.unum.capital/post/thirtytwo Trading Silver (XAG/USD) https://www.unum.capital/post/tradingsilv Overbought...Then Lower By 3000c https://www.unum.capital/post/obo3000 Trading EUR/USD https://www.unum.capital/post/eurft Trading Spot Gold (XAU/USD) https://www.unum.capital/post/xauretreat JSE Top 40 Index: Oversold Reading Unwinds... https://www.unum.capital/post/fortyrebound Breadth Data: Oversold Goes From 40 Shares To ... https://www.unum.capital/post/breadthreward For The Session, Platinum Miners... https://www.unum.capital/post/pgmlead USD/ZAR: Ultra Short Term Sees... https://www.unum.capital/post/zarrewardrisk FirstRand Generating Cash, Rebounding 7% https://www.unum.capital/post/firstcash Prosus Generating Cash With A 5200c Rebound https://www.unum.capital/post/prosusgen April 2025: Volatility Equals Opportunity https://www.unum.capital/post/volopportunity Russell 3000 Breadth: These Charts Help Us Understand... https://www.unum.capital/post/rus3k *Helping Clients Manage Risk https://www.unum.capital/post/mngrisk *High Impact: JSE Relative Sector Ratings https://www.unum.capital/post/relasec *High Impact:   U.S. Relative Sector Analysis https://www.unum.capital/post/ussectora Market Risk Index: Weekly & Monthly Time Frames   https://www.unum.capital/post/riskindex S&P 500: Bear Target Reached. Post-Market Comment https://www.unum.capital/post/spybeartarget S&P 500: For Clients, This Was A Risk To Consider https://www.unum.capital/post/spyimarket Breadth: S&P 500 % Constituents Above Their 200-Day https://www.unum.capital/post/us200day Protected By Treasuries: US10Y Dips Below 3.8% https://www.unum.capital/post/usten I Was Wrong Here: Glencore Stop-Loss Breached https://www.unum.capital/post/glnstop JSE Market Breadth: After The Close https://www.unum.capital/post/breadthpost JSE Top 40 Index (-8700 Points) https://www.unum.capital/post/fortyretreat JSE Top 40 Index: Weekly Chart Analysis https://www.unum.capital/post/fortyweekly Updates: Copper | Gold | Silver | Palladium | Platinum https://www.unum.capital/post/hardcomm U.S. Sector Breadth: Leaders & Laggards https://www.unum.capital/post/ussecbrea Anglo American: Channel Resistance + Below '08 Cycle Highs https://www.unum.capital/post/anglocycle Commodity Analysis https://www.unum.capital/post/commodity-analysis From Above R80 to Below R50. Helping Clients Manage Risk https://www.unum.capital/post/whl200w Prosus: Actionable Area https://www.unum.capital/post/prxaa FirstRand: Actionable Area https://www.unum.capital/post/fsraction MTN Group: Actionable Area https://www.unum.capital/post/aamtn Shoprite: Monthly MACD Development https://www.unum.capital/post/shpmacd Standard Bank: Continues To... https://www.unum.capital/post/sbkcycle Capitec/Top 40 Ratio MACD Development https://www.unum.capital/post/cpimacd Diversified Miners: Key Level + Relative Strength https://www.unum.capital/post/minersforty Consumer Staples + Utilities: Using Sectors... https://www.unum.capital/post/staplestrength Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term https://www.unum.capital/post/pricecomments 17x Oversold (Weekly T/F) https://www.unum.capital/post/osoweekly 8x High Demand / Approaching Overbought (Weekly (T/F) https://www.unum.capital/post/hidemand8 15x High Bearish Mo / Approaching Oversold (Weekly T/F) https://www.unum.capital/post/highbear15 5 Themes That Unum Capital Clients Have Been Prepared For   https://www.unum.capital/post/bigpic Missed Last Week's Research? (31 March - 04 April). Catch Up Below: Higher by 50% in 16 Months   https://www.unum.capital/post/fiftypercent Vodacom: Banking R10 https://www.unum.capital/post/vodpaid Technical Screen: Oversold + Potential Piercing Candles   https://www.unum.capital/post/osopiercing JSE Market Breadth: Key Takeaways   https://www.unum.capital/post/mktbreadth Now Lower by 29%: Model In Line & Meta Shorts Generating Cash https://www.unum.capital/post/meta24 Amidst The Volatility, There Are Opportunities To Make Money   https://www.unum.capital/post/amidst Trading Capitec. For Shorts, A 16% Decline   https://www.unum.capital/post/capitec16 MTN Group Shorts Generating Cash (-9%, or -1155c)   https://www.unum.capital/post/mtneleven Impala Platinum Day Two of Generating Cash   https://www.unum.capital/post/impdaytwo Strategy Alert: Standard Bank https://www.unum.capital/post/stratsbk   Trading Absa https://www.unum.capital/post/abgprob   Strategy Alert: Aspen Pharmacare https://www.unum.capital/post/strat-aspen Thungela Gives Gives S/T Traders A 600c Gain https://www.unum.capital/post/tga600 JSE Technical Summary: Mid & Large Caps https://www.unum.capital/post/jsetechsum Truworths: Stop-Loss Breached. Idea Now Closed https://www.unum.capital/post/trusl Trading Capitec Bank   https://www.unum.capital/post/cpilower Trading Foschini: Levels of Buying Interest   https://www.unum.capital/post/tfglvls MTN Group: Shorts Generating Cash (-4.9%, or -626c)   https://www.unum.capital/post/mtnlower Impala Platinum Paying Active Traders!   https://www.unum.capital/post/impala340 Trading Vodacom   https://www.unum.capital/post/vodgain Trading Northam Platinum https://www.unum.capital/post/tradenph Trading Note: Impala Platinum   https://www.unum.capital/post/tnimpala Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term   https://www.unum.capital/post/pacommentary Getting Paid With Thungela Resources   https://www.unum.capital/post/tgaprofit Shoprite: Trading 1000c Higher   https://www.unum.capital/post/shp1000c [Offshore] Altria: Running +9%   https://www.unum.capital/post/altria-running JSE Market Breadth: Key Takeaways   https://www.unum.capital/post/sabreadth Buy Idea https://www.unum.capital/post/buy-unlock   Unum Capital Commentary For Bloomberg   https://www.unum.capital/post/unumbbg How To Bank 100 Points (S&P 500 Index)   https://www.unum.capital/post/100points Top 10 Weakest Shares / Low Demand   https://www.unum.capital/post/bottomtenweak Top 10 Strongest Shares / High Demand   https://www.unum.capital/post/toptenstrong JSE Top 40 Index: Retreating From Inflection Point https://www.unum.capital/post/topfortyindex Thungela Resources: Have You Considered This Angle   https://www.unum.capital/post/thungela-angle Brent Crude Oil Running +7.8%   https://www.unum.capital/post/crude-7pct Global Utilities. Positioned For Alpha (3-Month High)   https://www.unum.capital/post/jxialpha Trading USD/ZAR   https://www.unum.capital/post/tradusdzar Van Eck Gold Miners ETF Running +33%   https://www.unum.capital/post/gdxetf-running Trading The Numbers: U.S Non-Farm Payrolls   https://www.unum.capital/post/tradingpayroll Market Risk Index: Weekly & Monthly Time Frames   https://www.unum.capital/post/mktrisk [High Impact] JSE Relative Sector Ratings https://www.unum.capital/post/sectorsum [High Impact]   U.S. Relative Sector Analysis https://www.unum.capital/post/ussectr US Tech: Why Ratio Charts Are A Part Of Our Process   https://www.unum.capital/post/positioning The Bigger Picture: 5 Themes That Unum Capital Clients...   https://www.unum.capital/post/5themes Trading S&P 500 Index   https://www.unum.capital/post/spxchannel Yields Down, Price Up. Well Done Bond Buyers   https://www.unum.capital/post/yields-down Gold: Long Term Inflection Point   https://www.unum.capital/post/gold-trend U.S. Sector Breadth: Leaders & Laggards   https://www.unum.capital/post/ussctbreadth Trading Richemont https://www.unum.capital/post/trade-cfr Trading Sasol   https://www.unum.capital/post/trading-sasol Trading British American Tobacco   https://www.unum.capital/post/trading-british Trading Naspers & Prosus https://www.unum.capital/post/npnprx   Trading JSE Insurers   https://www.unum.capital/post/trd-insurers '...And Then I Sold The Share For A Profit...'   https://www.unum.capital/post/foraprofit Investec: Unwinding From Long Term Resistance   https://www.unum.capital/post/inlzoom Sibanye: After a 40% Rally, Here's What The Data Says   https://www.unum.capital/post/sibanye-forty Telkom: Well Done Longs.  Now  63% Higher + Overbought   https://www.unum.capital/post/telkom-sixty Glencore Relative To Copper   https://www.unum.capital/post/glencore-copper Richards Bay Coal Futures   https://www.unum.capital/post/rbcoal JSE Gold Miners: After a 60% Rally, Here's What The Data Says   https://www.unum.capital/post/minersixty These 3 Shares Closed In Overbought Territory   https://www.unum.capital/post/3xobo Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term   https://www.unum.capital/post/pamodel Zooming Out: Harmony Gold https://www.unum.capital/post/zoom-har Zooming Out: PGM Miners / Top 40 Index https://www.unum.capital/post/zoom-pgm   8x High Demand / Approaching Overbought (Weekly (T/F) https://www.unum.capital/post/bullmoweek 8x High Bearish Mo / Approaching Oversold (Weekly T/F) https://www.unum.capital/post/hibearmoweek    Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital Archive / Year-To Date Research Links: 31 March to 04 April https://www.unum.capital/post/research-31-march-04-april-2025 24 March to 28 March https://www.unum.capital/post/research-24-28-march-2025 17 March to 21 March https://www.unum.capital/post/research-17-21-march-2025 10 March to 14 March https://www.unum.capital/post/research-10-14-march-2025 02 January to 07 March https://www.unum.capital/post/latest-research-january-2025

  • JSE Top 40 Index: From Deeply Oversold To Neutral

    Trade the Top 40 Index with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za From the week's low to high, the index appreciated by around 9000 points - a phenomenal move. It may however be worth noting that the index has just merely clawed backs some of it's previous losses to bring it back in line with the level seen on 03 April. Notice where the index found resistance on Thursday? Three confluence levels: (1) At the declining 21-day EMA (2) at the previous breakdown level and (3) at the previous resistance range(s) extending back to October. Is there room to appreciate? Yes, however, the deeply oversold conditions coming into the week of the Monday 07 April unveiled an array of opportunities that now looks to be far more neutral than what we saw around Monday's lows. i.e. the short term reward-to-risk is less appealing versus the start of the week commencing 07 April. Previous Post ( Tuesday 08 April): JSE Top 40 Index: Extending Gains. Now Trading +5800 Points or +8% Higher Tuesday (08 April) saw further upside follow-though, with the index extending Monday's gains while the oversold conditions as of Friday's close continued to unwind. We also saw the index rebound sharply off the channel support, as highlighted in the previous note (scroll down to view). As per Saturday's note, our nearest, next-best probability price action as per the price action model was to buy on a pullback. The index now trades 8% above the channel support and is 6000 points higher than the low seen on Monday. It should also be noted that the index is move in line with the oversold reading as per the price action model as well as strategy alerting traders to look for support at the prior swing lows. JSE Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of Tuesday 08 April at 18h20 Top 40: Zooming In.... Previous Post (Saturday 05 April at 14h37) : JSE Top 40 Index: Weekly Chart Analysis JSE Top 40 Index Analysis: Short Term (1 to 10 days):   The short-term reading is Oversold . This suggests that the index has likely experienced a significant decline and may be due for a rebound or consolidation. However, being oversold alone doesn't guarantee an immediate reversal. Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks):  The medium-term reading is Weak . This implies that the index has been trending downwards over the past few weeks, indicating underlying selling pressure . Long Term (5 to 8 weeks):  The long-term reading is Neutral . This suggests that over a broader timeframe, the index hasn't established a clear upward or downward trend. Overall Assessment: Taking into account the weighted importance (short-term being the most significant), the JSE Top 40 Index exhibits deteriorating  price action. While the oversold reading in the short term might offer a temporary bounce, the weakness in the medium term, coupled with the lack of a strong long-term trend, suggests caution. The recent price action is more aligned with the medium-term weakness than the potential for a short-term recovery. JSE TOP 40 WEEKLY CHART Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Six Research Notes Which Helped Our Clients This Week

    Trade   Local & Global Markets   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za This week, some clients took advantage of the enormous volatility. Well done to those who profited. To those who haven't been participating, get involved, there's money to be made. Below are six research notes from this week which helped clients manage risk, understand the current environment and uncover opportunities: (1) Global Market Breadth / Russell 3000 & S&P 500 | US equity market breadth was completely washed out. This highlighted the pending (and appealing) reward-to-risk. On Wednesday, US stocks had it's best day since October 2008 . Read the original note here: https://www.unum.capital/post/rus3k and here https://www.unum.capital/post/us200day (2) Market Risk Index / Nasdaq +10% Rally | On Wednesday morning, the Market Risk Index was screaming at us!!!. I published that note in real-time with a further update on the Nasdaq which rallied by over 10% into the evening. You can read that update here: https://www.unum.capital/post/oppspot (3) Actionable Areas: FSR and Prosus | For every trader, this should be the continuous question: "Where is the next best level to buy and where is the next best level to sell?" . As of Thursday morning, FirstRand rallied by more than 20% from Monday's provisional buy re-entry range. Prosus traded into the buy re-entry range (72000c to 73000c) and then rallied to an intraday high of 81800c. A 1-day intraday gain of 12%. The updated and original notes can be found here: FSR https://www.unum.capital/post/firstcash and PRX https://www.unum.capital/post/prosusgen (4) Brent Crude Oil: The note was an update to the weekly structure (a further breakdown) while the price action model recognized the ultra short term oversold conditions with both the short and medium term readings pointing to an appealing buy/long reward-to-risk. The commodity subsequently rallied between 7 and 10% . You can read the update here: https://www.unum.capital/post/brentsvn (5) Local Market Breadth / JSE Mid & Large Caps | The note highlighted that out of the 98 shares with a market cap above R10bn, 40 of them closed in an oversold range. This, was a rarity and highlighted the extremely broad-based oversold conditions. Our comment include the following: .... "This widespread oversold reading may point towards a potential near-term buying opportunity  as the large number of stocks at these levels could be poised for a rebound...." You can read the updated and original note here: https://www.unum.capital/post/breadthreward (6) JSE Top 40 Index | Original note here: https://www.unum.capital/post/fortyweekly What the note contained... "Short Term (1 to 10 days):  The short-term reading is Oversold . This suggests that the index has likely experienced a significant decline and may be due for a rebound or consolidation. However, being oversold alone doesn't guarantee an immediate reversal." Our initial assessment of the key levels... As of Thursday morning (09h09), this is how it's going...a 10% rally. Notice the Monday drop into the prior swing lows as per the above price action reading? Connect with the trading desk today. E-mail   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term

    Trade JSE Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Wednesday 09 April. These are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital (Data as of end of day Friday 28 March 2025)

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