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  • USD/ZAR: Ultra Short Term Sees Poor Buy/Long Reward-To-Risk

    Trade FX: USD/ZAR  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za Current price action model reading + updated chart. We saw the share temporarily hold the the R18.23 to R18.36 zone before trading lower, then reclaiming it for a rally to the current multi-week highs nears R19.44. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • April 2025: Volatility Equals Opportunity

    Talking Points: Macro Developments Currently Driving Sentiment/Outlooks What We Know Valuation Volatility Equals Opportunity Where Is The Bottom? / Timing Macro Developments Currently Driving Sentiment/Outlooks | This note runs the risk of communicating items you may already be familiar with. For example, you will be aware that global financial markets are under pressure. You will be aware that the trade war via tariffs are one of, if not the main driver of the decline in risk assets. You will also be aware that volatility is high and that most risk assets have sold off. The aforementioned, are some of the negative factors that are at play. What We Know | As analysts and traders, we will never have all of the information at hand in order to make a decision. In some cases, we will have 55% of the information while in other case, will have 78% of the information etc. What we do know is that lower prices are presenting us with opportunities to (1) be active and take advantage of volatility and both the buy (long) and sell (short) side and (2) Take advantage of lower prices to build medium to long term portfolios (both U.S and global). What we also recognize is that at an index level, the All Share and Top 40 indices are slightly off their long term highs, but underneath the surface there has been some have been businesses that have seen their share prices decline significantly over several weeks and months. Valuation | In the short term, valuation isn't a very good timing tool however, over the long term, it does add value and can help traders and investors accumulate pieces of businesses that have the ability to 're-rate' over several months and years. While it is a crude way of measuring value, it does help us identify potentially cheap stocks (to buy) or expensive ones (to sell). A quick screen will help to uncover potential opportunities. Take Absa , for example. At Friday's close the share traded on a price-to-earnings ratio of 6x , with a dividend yield of 8% . It also sported a price-to-book value of 0.82 . SA industrial group Bidvest's price-to-book ratio is at 1.98x , which is the lowest since October 2020. Old Mutual trades on 6 times it's trailing earnings, with a dividend yield of 7.6% . Cyclical share Sappi trades on a 4 price-to-earnings ratio and a 7.2% dividend yield . This is a non-comprehensive list and merely just examples of shares leaning toward fundamental value. Volatility Equals Opportunity | The spike in volatility is presenting traders and long term investors with opportunities to smartly allocate capital to take advantage of falling prices . Where is The Bottom? / Timing The Market |  With prices moving at a rapid pace, levels have and are being breached with new support and resistance zone being tested. In some case, support is taken out and reclaimed, creating an opportunity for the fast-fingered trader to generate cash. I'll be the first to admit that I don't know where the exact bottom is, however, I'll be monitoring real-time developments in price action in an attempt to ascertain whether the momentum is slowing down or accelerating as well as what the price action is signaling. Bottom Line | The next few days and weeks may present an opportunity gradually phase in positions i.e. rand or dollar-cost average into a medium to long term portfolio. The current sell-off represents some businesses going 'on sale', with prices that may offer value for a 'limited period only'. Others might have further to fall, which will offer opportunities at a later stage. Note: With prices moving fast, it might be that not all ideas/opportunity will be communicated in written format via the Unum Capital website. To avoid missing opportunities, open an account and connect directly with our traders on the desk. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • S&P 500 Index: Bear Target Reached (Post-Market Comment)

    Trade Global Indices  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za In our note, published last week Friday the price action model highlighted the weak price action while suggested that rallies into the 8,21 or 50-week EMA could be sold. Early in the week we saw a brief rebound into these levels (the 8-week EMA and the 50-week EMA) which was followed by a sharp sell-off on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. The lower boundary of the channel was also tested, with our view being that 5225 to 5300 would be a target. By Friday's close, this target range was exceeded with the low being 5036. S&P 500 Chart Post U.S. Market Close (Friday 04 April) S&P 500: What we communicated to our clients on Monday 05 December at 6098. Model Reading = "Risk of a medium term retracement" Link to original note: https://www.unum.capital/post/s-p-500-index-retracement-risk S&P 500 Chart Post U.S. Market Close (Friday 04 April) Previous Post: Friday 28 March at 12h26 (South African Time) The short term rebound has been met with resistance and a rollover, with the having re-tested the underside of the widely-watched 200-day simple moving average as well as the declining 21-day exponential moving average. More broadly, the index is trading below it's 75-day EMA and the 21-week EMA has started to lose upside momentum by turning lower. Plotting a parallel channel, a further deterioration of price would potential target the lower boundary of the channel, which comes in at 5225 to 5300. The weakness in U.S equities is a validation of a BEARISH VIEW express on 05 December 2024. Previous Post: U.S. Indices: Bullish Reversals In Line With Model Readings S&P 500 | Dow | Nasdaq | Russell 2000 This is an update on the previous post which highlighted the price action model readings for the 4 major U.S indices. Since then, we have seen a short term rally, in line with oversold or approaching oversold conditions. The original readings can be found on this same page (scroll down). For the S&P 500 , the then OVERSOLD and VERY BEARISH ratings were a setup for a bearish unwind (i.e. a rebound). The yellow arrow on the daily chart highlights the date/time of the note. For the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) , the model reading alerted traders with the following reading: "Very aggressive selling underway. Wait until momentum starts to slow before buying. Alternatively, phase in your buying'. The yellow arrow on the daily chart highlights the date/time of the note. For the Nasdaq 100, the then HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUUM / APPROACHING OVERSOLD and VERY BEARISH ratings were a setup for a bearish unwind (i.e. a rebound). The yellow arrow on the daily chart highlights the date/time of the note. For the Russell 2000 Index (Small Caps), the then HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUUM / APPROACHING OVERSOLD and VERY BEARISH ratings were a setup for a bearish unwind (i.e. a rebound). Also note, the model reading (5 to 8 weeks), highlighted the share having been weak with selling pressure however that there was a probability of a small rebound. The yellow arrow on the daily chart highlights the date/time of the note. Previous Post (Wednesday 12 March): Trading U.S. Indices Analysis of the four major indices: S&P 500 Dow Jones Industrial Average Nasdaq 100 Russell 2000 (Small Caps) S&P 500 Index / US 500 No readings across the 3 time frames however, it does reflect an oversold regime, with the 14-day trend being very bearish. Selling pressure continues to be aggressive therefore prices can remain under pressure for long than anticipated. Look for the lower time frames (1H, 2H and 4H) to improve/stabilize. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) / US30 Q: What is the overall trend for Dow Jones Industrial Average? A: The overall trend is bearish (downward). 1 This is evident across all time frames (short, medium, and long term) Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The 7-day trend is High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The 14-day trend is Very Bearish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: Potentially, with caution. The analysis suggests waiting for the "downward momentum to slow" or to "phase in buying." This indicates the possibility of a short-term bounce or reversal, but it's not a strong buy signal yet. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term sell/short position? A: Not explicitly recommended. The analysis focuses on the potential for a slowing of the bearish momentum, suggesting that the strongest part of the sell-off may be over. Q: What is the current position & trend for the short term (1 to 10 days)? A: Very Aggressive Selling. The analysis recommends waiting for the downward momentum to slow before buying or phasing in buying. Q: What is the current position & trend for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: Aggressive Selling. The analysis suggests waiting for lower time frames to stabilize before considering any buying. Q: What is the current position & trend for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: Aggressive Selling Following A Steady Upward Trend. The analysis is looking for support at prior swing lows to capture minor rebounds, implying a continuation of the downtrend with potential temporary bounces. In summary: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is experiencing a strong bearish trend across all time frames. The analysis suggests caution for buyers and recommends waiting for signs of stabilization or a slowing of the downward momentum before considering long positions. There may be opportunities for short-term rebounds, but these should be approached with care and confirmation of a trend reversal. The overall outlook remains bearish. Nasdaq 100 Index (US100) Q: What is the overall trend for Nasdaq 100? A: The overall trend is bearish or negative, as indicated by the "High Bearish Momentum" and "Very Bearish" signals in the short term, and the "Aggressive Selling" in the long term. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The current 7-day trend is High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The current 14-day trend is Very Bearish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: There might be a potential opportunity for a short-term buy/long position, but it's risky. The "Approaching Oversold" condition in the 7-day trend suggests a possible bounce, but the "Very Weak" signal and the "Very Bearish" 14-day trend indicate strong downward pressure. The strategy would be to "Wait Until It Stabilizes On The Lower Time Frame" before considering any long positions. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term sell/short position? A: There is a strong opportunity for a short-term sell/short position provided the index fails shows deteriorating candle structure or overbought conditions on any short term rally. The "Very Weak" and "Very Bearish" signals indicate continued downward momentum. Q: What is the current position & trend for the short term (1 to 10 days)? A: The current position and trend for the short term (1 to 10 days) is Very Weak. The advice is to "Wait Until It Stabilizes On The Lower Time Frame". Q: What is the current position & trend for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: The current position and trend for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks) is Persistently Weak. The advice is to "Monitor Lower Times For Rebound Potential". Q: What is the current position & trend for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: The current position and trend for the long term (5 to 8 weeks) is Aggressive Selling Following A Steady Upward Trend. The strategy would be to "Look For Support At Prior Swing Lows To Capture Minor Rebounds". In summary: The Nasdaq 100 is experiencing a strong bearish trend across all time frames. The short-term is showing signs of being oversold, but the overall momentum is still downwards. Shorting opportunities are present, but any long positions should be approached with extreme caution and only after confirming stabilization on lower time frames. The medium and long-term trends suggest continued weakness, with potential for minor rebounds at support levels. Russell 2000 Index (Small Caps) Q: What is the overall trend for RUSSELL 2000 INDEX? A: The overall trend for the Russell 2000 Index is bearish, with indications of continued weakness but potential for a small rebound. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The current 7-day trend is high bearish momentum and approaching oversold. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The current 14-day trend is very bearish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: The short-term analysis suggests the market is approaching oversold, which could present a potential opportunity for a short-term buy/long position. However, this should be approached cautiously due to the overall bearish momentum. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term sell/short position? A: For now, this opportunity has passed, given the bearish 14-day trend and high bearish momentum in the 7-day trend, a rebound is more likely, especially if the oversold condition is reached with strong candle structure on the lower time frames. Q: What is the current position & trend for the short term (1 to 10 days)? A: The current position for the short term is bearish, with high bearish momentum and approaching oversold conditions. The trend is weak but showing signs of potential for a small rebound. Q: What is the current position & trend for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: The current position for the medium term is persistently weak, but there's a need to monitor for potential lower times for a rebound. The trend is bearish but with potential signs of a reversal. Q: What is the current position & trend for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: The current position for the long term is weak, with selling pressure. However, there's a probability of a small rebound. The trend is bearish but with signs of a potential recovery. In summary: The Russell 2000 Index is currently in a bearish trend across all time frames (short, medium, and long term). The short-term analysis indicates the index is approaching oversold territory, which could lead to a temporary rebound. However, the overall bearish momentum suggests that any rebound might be short-lived. Traders should exercise caution and consider both potential short-term buy/long and sell/short opportunities, keeping in mind the prevailing bearish sentiment. Previous Post: Our Research, Your Opportunity: S&P 500 Index Model Unfolding Snapshot as of 20h47 (Monday 10 March) An 8% pullback off the price action model reading in 05 December. As per the model reading at the time: (1) " Possible bearish reversal, following a very bullish move " and (2) " Aggressive Buying But Overbought On The Lower Time Frame - Expect a consolidation or Minor Retracement ". Previous Post On 05 December we discussed the index, highlighting the risk of a medium term retracement as well as the live reading from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Model) which was as follows: (2 to 4 week time frame): "a possible bearish reversal following a very bullish move" and (5 to 8 week time frame): Aggressive buying underway, but overbought on the lower time frame. Expect a consolidation or a minor retracement". Our analysis coincided with the medium term top as the index retreated from 6098 to 5768 (-330 points or -5%). This was followed by a rebound however, the index has struggled to clear over the overhead resistance range and maintain it's position above 6098 for a sustained period. Over the course of this week, we saw broad-based selling pressure, with the index at multi-week lows. The only two sectors which saw safe-haven buying were Consumer Staples and Utilities, both of which have featured strongly on our screens prior to the note and which we published as buy candidates. Links as follows: https://www.unum.capital/post/iyk-etf + https://www.unum.capital/post/jxi-etf S&P 500 Index Chart (Current) Previous Post: S&P 500 Index: Risk of a Medium Term Retracement Thursday 05 December 2024 (Time: 21h49) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Now Lower By 29%: Model In Line & Meta Shorts Generating Cash!

    Trade   Global Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Update: The pullback is in line with the model reading. As mentioned in the original post: The full target of $672 was reached earlier this week and the share traded above $700 post earnings. I was curious to know what the price action model for Meta Platforms stated ... Overbought + Very Bullish, But .... 'Sellers Becoming Active...' I'm NOT suggesting an immediate drop in price or that this is the exact top....but rather the potential for the formation a topping structure or slowdown in upward momentum over the next 3 to 5 months. i.e. the current levels offer a poor buy/long reward-to-risk going forward . Previous Post (01 February): Trading Meta Platforms (Facebook): 'Sellers Becoming Active' The full target of $672 was reached earlier this week and the share traded above $700 post earnings. I was curious to know what the price action model for Meta Platforms stated ... Overbought + Very Bullish, But .... 'Sellers Becoming Active...' I'm NOT suggesting an immediate drop in price or that this is the exact top....but rather the potential for the formation a topping structure or slowdown in upward momentum over the next 3 to 5 months. i.e. the current levels offer a poor buy/long reward-to-risk going forward . META chart as of Friday's close Previous Post: The full, measured move target has been of $672 has been reached (closed higher at $674). this represents a gain of 28% in 4 1/2 months. Bank, Take Profit. Previous Post: 12 September Real-Time: 19h12 (South African Time) / U.S Trading Session Ticker: FB Formerly known as Facebook Inc, the share has shown relative strength, holding near it's multi-year highs however not having made much progress since the first quarter of this year. This could change as the price looks to re-test it's overhead resistance of $543 upon which strong price action/candle structure would suggest a move into a new trading range and a continuation of the multi-year upward trend. Here, an upside target of $672 applicable, with the setup being invalidated on a weekly close below $490. Note: Meta Platforms (Facebook) was an idea flagged through my model nearly 2 years ago at $90. Now trading above $522! (Edit: This week (End Jan 2025), it traded above $700! Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Russell 3000. These Chart Help Us Understand...

    The Russell 3000 Index (three thousand) measures the performance of 3,000 stocks and includes all large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap US equities, along with some microcap stocks. The index is designed to represent approximately 98% of investable US equities by market capitalization. In this note we consider the index breadth readings i.e. the percentage of shares above the 200, 50, 20 and 5-day moving averages. This helps us understand the breadth of the sell-off and whether the current readings is comparable to that of or (near) previous bottoms. % of Shares Above The 200-day Moving Average = 15.57% % of Shares Above The 50-day Moving Average = 7.41% % of Shares Above The 20-day Moving Average = 5.37% % of Shares Above The 5-day Moving Average = 2.44% The chart below highlights two items:(1) the Russell 3000 index (upper panel) and (2) the % of shares above their 200-day moving averages. Here, we also highlight the index lows over the past decade vs the low in the breadth (% vs 200-day). At current levels, the percentage of shares above their 200-day moving averages is 15.57% which is near the low. It's worth noting that in March 2020 the percentage of shares above their 200-day moving averages was just below 5% which indicates that breadth has the ability to further deteriorate from current levels. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Actionable Area: MTN Group

    Trade   MTN Group   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za MTN traded into it's 200-week SMA from which it was rejected. The weekly candle reflects excessive selling pressure with the close below the prior nine (9) weeks' lows. Next, best-probability buy re-entry range 9413c to 9740c. Previous Post: Generating Cash Flow: MTN Has Declined By 9% (or -1155c) The move is also in line with the then (live) price action model reading which called for a retracement. See the original post further down on the this page. The chart below is 'current'. Previous Post (25 March): Now 53% Higher, The Technical Reward-To-Risk Is Less Appealing Over a period of 8 months (since 18 July 2024), MTN Group has offered traders opportunities to get long (i.e. buy). This is was driven in part by the price action model readings as well as manual review of the technical structure (falling wedge pattern). Although there may be room for further upside, at current levels, the price action model reading (shown below) points to a less appealing reward-to-risk, with overbought conditions being present. Q: What is the overall trend? A: The overall trend is bullish but with overbought conditions. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: Overbought Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: Very Bullish Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: No, the risk-reward is unattractive. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term sell/short position? A: Potentially, if there is an overshoot or failure to hold prior session range highs. Q: What is the current position & trend for the short term (1 to 10 days)? A: Would not enter long due to unattractive risk-reward, expecting consolidation or minor retracement. Q: What is the current position & trend for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: Aggressive buying but overbought, expecting consolidation or minor retracement. Q: What is the current position & trend for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: Aggressive buying, but do not chase. Look for overshoot or failure to hold prior session range highs to short, aiming to sell back to the 8-EMA. Summary: For the short term (1 to 10 days), the strategy would be to avoid long positions due to the unattractive risk-reward, with the expectation of consolidation or a minor retracement. In the medium term (2 to 4 weeks), despite aggressive buying, the market is overbought, suggesting a strategy of watching for consolidation or a minor retracement. For the long term (5 to 8 weeks), while the trend remains aggressively bullish, the strategy is to avoid chasing the price and instead look for potential overshoot or failure to hold prior session range highs to initiate short positions, aiming to sell back to the 8-EMA. The price action model reading as highlight at 7400c on 18 July 2024. The original post can be accessed at the following link: https://www.unum.capital/post/mtn-group-here-s-what-the-data-says-thursday-18-july-2024 MTN Falling Wedge Structure (27 November). The original post can be accessed at the following link: https://www.unum.capital/post/mtn-group-levels-of-interest-falling-wedge-structure Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • The Bigger Picture: 5 Themes That Clients Have Been Prepared For

    Start Trading With Unum Capital Today. Below Are Five 'Bigger Picture' Themes That Clients of Unum Capital Have Been Prepared For. (1) S&P 500 / US Equities At Risk of A Medium Term Retracement (05 December) | A real-time assessment of risk via price action model highlighted the risk of a retracement. (2) Buy Europe. It's Inexpensive (26 September) | One of the biggest surprises for global market participants has been the resurgence of European equities. Clients of Unum Capital have been prepared > https://www.unum.capital/post/european-equities-inexpensive-near-all-time-highs (3) Chinese Technology: Via Alibaba (& Naspers, Prosus and Tencent) | The share has rallied by over 100%. https://www.unum.capital/post/baba-100 (4) U.S Dollar. At Risk of a Decline (03 January) https://www.unum.capital/post/dollar-unwind (5) U.S. Bonds. A Price Rally Expected i.e. Lower Bond Yields (08-January). https://www.unum.capital/post/yields-down Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • JSE Top 40 Index: Weekly Chart Analysis

    Trade the Top 40 Index with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za JSE Top 40 Index Analysis: Short Term (1 to 10 days):  The short-term reading is Oversold . This suggests that the index has likely experienced a significant decline and may be due for a rebound or consolidation. However, being oversold alone doesn't guarantee an immediate reversal. Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks):  The medium-term reading is Weak . This implies that the index has been trending downwards over the past few weeks, indicating underlying selling pressure. Long Term (5 to 8 weeks):  The long-term reading is Neutral . This suggests that over a broader timeframe, the index hasn't established a clear upward or downward trend. Overall Assessment: Taking into account the weighted importance (short-term being the most significant), the JSE Top 40 Index exhibits deteriorating  price action. While the oversold reading in the short term might offer a temporary bounce, the weakness in the medium term, coupled with the lack of a strong long-term trend, suggests caution. The recent price action is more aligned with the medium-term weakness than the potential for a short-term recovery. JSE TOP 40 WEEKLY CHART Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Got Bonds? Protected By Treasuries as U.S. 10-Year Yield Trades Below 3.9%

    Trade Fixed Income ETFs   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za + Bear Flag Structure Playing Out Edit: During Friday's U.S trading session, the yield traded as low as 3.86% Last week Friday we discussed the bear flag structure which implies the potential for downside continuation. Over the course of the week, the U.S 10-Year Bond Yield has traded from 4.25% to 3.97%. Lower bond yields mean that bond prices have risen. This move is a continuation of our view at the beginning of this year which recognized the overbought conditions in bond yields i.e. looking for a higher bond prices. Well done to clients who may have allocated a portfolio to treasuries and participated in being long bonds! Chart below is 'current' (as of Friday 04 April at 06h50, South African Time) The current price action model reading is as follows: Previous Post (Friday 28 March, 19h28, US Trading Session): Yield Down, Price Up. Well Done Bond Buyers The move lower in bond yields is in line with our previous view (driven by the model/Tactical Trading Guide) that yields had become overbought (above 4.7%) in the short and medium term and that a risk of a bearish reversal was possible. At current levels we are seeing a potential bear flag technical formation support by poor candle structure on the yield. US 10-Year Bond Yield Chart as of Friday 28 March (U.S. Trading Session) Previous Post: U.S. 10-YEAR BOND YIELD Bullish Momentum However, Approaching Short Term Overbought (08 January 2025) Overall Summary The image presents a price action analysis for the US 10-Year Bond Yield, focusing on three timeframes: Short Term (1-10 days), Medium Term (2-4 weeks), and Long Term (5-8 weeks). Key Observations 7-Day Trend: High Bullish Momentum, Approaching Overbought 14-Day Trend: Very Bullish Short Term (1-10 days): Price Action Reading: Very Strong Move, Buyers in Control, but Don't Chase - May Fail to Hold the Highs; If it doesn't hold, the 8-EMA may be a short-sell target. Medium Term (2-4 weeks): Price Action Reading: Aggressive Buying but Do Not Chase - Look for Overshoot or Failure to Hold Prior Session Highs to Short-Sell Back to the 8-EMA. Long Term (5-8 weeks): Price Action Reading: Attempting to Advance Whilst in a Bullish Regime - If it Pulls Back, Use Prior Session Close or 8-EMA as an Accumulation Zone. Interpretation Bullish Momentum: The price of the US 10-Year Bond Yield has been rising strongly in the short term. Caution: The momentum is approaching overbought territory, suggesting a potential reversal. Trading Strategy: Short-term traders: Be cautious of chasing the price higher. Look for signs of weakness (like a failure to hold recent highs) to potentially short-sell. Medium-term traders: Avoid chasing aggressive buying. Look for opportunities to short-sell if the price overshoots or fails to hold prior session highs. Long-term traders: Maintain a bullish bias. If the price pulls back, consider accumulating (buying) near the prior session close or the 8-EMA support level. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Update: Glencore Plc

    Trade   Glencore Plc with Unum Capital To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za During the course the past week, the share has traded below the stop-loss level. This idea is based, in part, on my previous note (11 February). " Glencore Plc: Managing Risk via the Monthly Chart" Text as per the graphic below: MEDIUM TERM VIEW. HIGH RISK BUY IDEA therefore small-than-average position sizes may apply. The share has been sold off aggressively and is in a high bearish momentum regime while also approaching an oversold range. I do NOT think that THIS is the exact low (i.e. I am expecting lower levels) however, this may be a RANGE to starting building a buy/long position with the expectation that a base starts to form over the near term followed by a potential bullish reversal. Buy at current levels or lower (traders could consider starting with a 1/3 of the position). In terms of probabilities, it's possible that the share could trade down to the 7000c range (this is NOT a prediction, but merely a probability based on candle structure, momentum etc.). Note the 7000c level coincides with the previous MONTHLY CHART breakout level. As always, traders could consider the following if/when the prices approaches the target: bank/take profit, partially scale out, adjust the stop-loss to protect profits. Time stop: 03 October 2025. Trading Levels Entry: 7140c Target: 8300c Stop-loss: 6440c Previous Post: " Glencore Plc: Managing Risk via the Monthly Chart" The monthly chart is a useful, and often overlooked tool for investors and traders looking to manage risk. In 2023, our analysis highlighted 3 aspects which alerted traders to downside risk over the medium term: (1) The bearish MACD crossover (2) the channel resistance and (2) the breakdown in the 14-month RSI. At the time, clients were exposed to the following view via the monthly chart at a price of R104. (Current level = R79) Current View (Long Term): Weak and in a downward trend;   Looking to re-test the previous breakout level of R70 as per the monthly chart. Last Price: 7978c. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term

    Trade JSE Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Friday 04 April. These are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital (Data as of end of day Friday 28 March 2025)

  • Actionable Area: Prosus N.V

    Trade   Prosus   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Prosus N.V (PRX).  The share has retreated from the upper boundary of it's rising channel, encountering distribution over the last 4 weeks. The 75-day EMA and 21-week EMA continue to trend up, however, the deteriorating candle structure does not rule out a move toward the lower boundary of the channel, which is in line with the rising 200-day SMA as well as the 50-week EMA. This comes in at approximately 72000c to 73000c. This range is subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. Last Close: 81094c   Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

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