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Trade   Standard Bank   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za The ZAR and news-flow will dominate the day which is bound to elevate volatility. Stay flexible and be prepared to adjust in real-time! Previous Post: Getting Paid: For Active Traders, Standard Bank Delivers On The Long & Short Side Standard Bank tested it's 200-day SMA, rebounded, and is now looking to break below this level again. We are going to have to see the price stabilize before considering a new buy long position. The move lower over the last few months is in line with our 15 August view: " Caution To New Longs" as well as our alert (12 November: Channel Check) which warned around a change of trend from neutral to bearish. Original Posts: Caution to New Longs > https://www.unum.capital/post/standard-bank-trading-at-multi-month-highs-here-s-what-the-data-says-thursday-15-august-2024 Channel Check (12-Nov) > https://www.unum.capital/post/channel-check-standard-bank SBK Daily Chart at Friday's close: SBK Model reading as of Friday's close: Previous Post: STANDARD BANK: Caution To New Longs - Thursday, 15 August 2024 Ticker: SBK Real-Time: 15h50 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Absa Group   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za In This Note: Recognizing The Channel Recognizing The 200-Day Moving Average If It Falls Further, Where Can It Find Support i.e. Where Is The Next 'Next-Best' Probability Level To Consider A Buy/Long Position? The current price action model reading. Model warning at R197 (peak was ~R199). Now R173!!! Recognizing The Channel. The share has retraced and is nearing the lower boundary of the upward trending channel. Recognizing The 200-Day Moving Average. The share is re-testing a gradually rising 200-day SMA. We could, as a possibility, see the share continue to print below the 200-day, with an eventual reclaim and bullish reversal. Where is the next best support zone? The answer is: ' I don't know the exact level, however, the lower boundary of the channel (approximately 16477c to 16834c) as well as potential for further oversold conditions. The following is also a probability: "Trading lower intraday, then stabilizing on the 15-min, 30-min or 1-hour time frames". Stay Flexible and consider the probabilities! Current price action model reading: The share now trades at R173 but it's worth noting that in early December close to the peak (just below R200, the model warned us about the unappealing reward-to-risk. The time-stamped reading is shown below. Previous Post: Trading Absa: Generating Cash Flow (+1200c to 1300c) Absa: Gave traders 2x opportunities to enter a buy/long position, with the share trading in our re-entry buy range (see point #3 on the chart/image below). This was a great opportunity for short term traders to generate cash. Ultra short term traders could consider taking full or partial profits.   Well done to clients who may have capitalized on the opportunity. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital Sunday 09-Feb-2025 Previous Post: How To Trade: Absa Group (ABG) (Wednesday 22 January at 15h53) Key Takeaways : 1. Fundamentals Remain Appealing 2. Currently Unwinding From An Overbought Range 3. The next-best probability re-accumulation range is between 17930c and 18150c. This range is subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. In recent months, we have expressed our views around buy/long side opportunities in ABSA, with these short to medium term structures coming to fruition as the group reported results that were above analyst consensus expectations. The surge to above R195 placed the share in short term overbought territory, with the price action model confirming that the reward-to-risk for the short term traders had become unappealing. Below, the time-stamped model is shown: What has transpired since? As noted, the share traded into the 19600c/19900c range and has since experienced a period of distribution (selling) to below 18700c. Note the short term deteriorating candle structure. Where is the next best level to accumulate? Both the 50-day and 75-EMA continue to trend higher, with the price trading above these areas. The share price is also trading above it's rising 21-week EMA. There is an unfilled gap at 18203c, which is broadly in line with both the 75-day and 21week EMA. These are approximate areas meaning that the price can overshoot to the downside (or not reach it at all). For now, my next-best probability re-accumulation range is between 17930c and 18150c. This range is subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. Analyst's Price Action Model Previous Post: ABSA GROUP Voluntary Trading Upside Accelerates Fundamental Re-Rating Coming off a low base, materially stronger earnings growth is expected for 2024. The share has materially outperformed it's peer group this week but remains muted over the long term. This gives the share room to advance over the medium. To re-iterate, my long term target is R220. Please scroll down for the previous posts. Previous Post: ABSA GROUP: Absolute & Relative Re-Rating Thursday 05 December 2024 (Time: 06:21) In March, below R145, Clients were alerted to an opportunity to accumulate, driven by the model reading. Yesterday, the share was the strongest performer amongst the financials. On an absolute basis, the share is trading at multi-week highs. On a relative basis, the share is looking to breach it's downward trend vs the JSE Top 40 Index. To me, it looks the like the start of a re-rating and the potential start of relative outperformance. Remember, it's been very cheap with an appealing valuation. The ratio chart is shown below: Previous Post: Absa Group: Relative Value Monday 25 November 2024 (Time Published: 06h28) Fundamentally undervalued + has not participated in the re-rating of South African equities. Whilst it is trading off the Q2 lows, the share remains in a multi-year consolidation phase and off it's all-time highs. Long Term Target = R220. View as of Thursday 21 November at 09h59. Previous Post: TRADER'S TOOLBOX: Absa's 3 Major Turning Points - Tuesday, 20 August 2024 The major turning points in the share were late March, mid June and early in August. These 2 longs and 1 short triggers helped traders position for the subsequent moves to take advantage of cash-flow generating opportunities. BUY/LONG Discussed in detail, along with the Tactical Trading Guide on Monday, 25 March. The charts below are also adjusted to include dividends. Short/Sell (Reading/Chart 1) Warning that a buy/long was unappealing. Short/Sell (Reading/Chart 2) Alerting to a 1 to 2 day/week short/sell setup. Buy/Long - Monitor For Bullish Reversal Opportunity V-Shaped reversal followed by massive gap up during yesterday's session (earnings release). Clients of Unum Capital are often alerted to key technical developments which include readings from the Tactical Trading Guide. This acts as a guide which helps to identify both opportunities and risk. To become a client, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011384 2923 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Aspen Pharmacare & More  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za Note the price action guide having already given traders a buy reading on Tuesday evening, with a decent intraday move yesterday (Wednesday 02 April). Previous Post: Aspen Pharmacare: In The Money (+8.5%) and a 4-Month High In The Money (+8.5%) - and at a 4 1/2 month high of 185.95 thus far today! Previous Post: Our Capabilities - Aspen Pharmacare Trade Ideas For Getting Long, Short & Long Again. Within the span of 24 months, the share has provided clients of Unum Capital with three opportunities to profit. These opportunities came on the long (buy), short (sell) side and then long (buy) side again, benefiting from a rising and falling share price. The short leg provided short term traders with 3x opportunities to sell above 23500c. Although the share briefly test the stop-loss level (a spike), the share pullback was in line with the view. The updated chart, with the time-stamped ideas, is shown below. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Truworths   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Update: Here, the stop-loss has been breached and thus the trade idea is closed. The continued move lower in consumer discretionary shares is in line with our medium term view which recognized the waning momentum for the sector (MRP, TFG, TRU, WHL) relative to the broader market. We last updated that comment here: https://www.unum.capital/post/condisc-alpha Previous Post: Truworths - A Temporary Dectractor I want all my ideas to see a positive outcome, so naturally I am disappointed that the share has not materialized as anticipated. For now, TRU is out of the money, but has not breached the stop-loss level. As mentioned in the original note: " I do not think that THIS is the exact low (i.e. I am expecting lower levels) however, this may be a RANGE to starting building a buy/long position with the expectation that a base starts to form over the near term followed by a potential bullish reversal." The chart below is CURRENT. Scroll down for the original post as well as other previous posts. If you are uncomfortable being temporarily out of the money, you should consider exiting the trade. Adding TRU as a trade idea. Text on the image below: HIGH RISK BUY IDEA therefore small-than-average position sizes may apply. The share has been sold off aggressively and is in a oversold regime. I do not think that THIS is the exact low (i.e. I am expecting lower levels) however, this may be a RANGE to starting building a buy/long position with the expectation that a base starts to form over the near term followed by a potential bullish reversal. Buy at current levels or lower (traders could consider starting with a 1/3 of the position). As always, traders could consider the following if/when the prices approaches the target: bank/take profit, partially scale out, adjust the stop-loss to protect profits. Note: Event risk in the form of earnings are expected on 27 February. Time stop: 11 July 2025. Trading Levels: Entry: 7991c or better Target: 9200c Stop-loss: 7345c Previous Post (Sunday 09 February): Trading Truworths: Strategy Alert TRU is trading 15% below it's 75-day exponential moving average. These extension levels have often coincided with range to add to initiate a long position or cover short/sell positions. Previous Post: Trading Truworths: Approaching Oversold / Consider Covering Short Positions In September, our research alerted to a poor buy/long reward-to-risk for the sector risk. The share is now trading in a high bearish momentum regime while approaching oversold. Previous Post: (28 January): Trading Truworths September 2024 Reference + Current Chart Below Previous Post: Retailers: Selling Off In Line With The Model Readings This is the 2nd update on the original post. For the previous posts, please scroll down. In the original post, I highlighted the real-time reading from the Tactical Trading Guide. It alerted clients about a poor reward-to-risk on the buy/long side . Since then, performance has been as follows: TFG down from R158 to R146 (recent low) TRU down from R109 to R98 (recent low) MRP rallied to 272 then traded down to 253 (recent low) CLS was at R399, then sold off sharply down to R360. SHP (see insert below) was a setup which clients were well prepared for . The idea was to look for a print ABOVE R314, followed by a pullback. The price traded above R314 and retreated to reach a low of R278 during yesterday's trading session. Well done to clients who have been correctly positioned to take advantage of these moves. Previous Post: Retailers: Unwinding From Overbought Thursday, 03 October 2024 Time Published: 12h29 The Tactical Trading Guide has been very useful in assessing reward-to-risk. The model has given traders timeous readings helping to prepare for opportunity. To add, CLS Clicks is acting in line with the model, which alerted traders that sellers were becoming active. Note the reading at the end of day on 25 September. Previous Post: " Retailers Have Rallied. Here's What The Data Says - Monday, 23 September 2024" Pre-Market A global rate cutting cycle including action from the SARB has support strong moves in retail shares. In addition, early positive signs in the local economy has boosted confidence which has led to analyst upgrades. This is especially relevant in the Consumer Discretionary sector which may feel the effect of improved consumer spend. While the fundamentals are positive and, after a strong rally, the short term reward-to-risk does not appear appealing for new buy/long trades. For Consumer Discretionary shares, this is what the data says: MRP Mr. Price TFG Foschini TRU Truworths Clients of Unum Capital have had access to research which has flagged opportunities across in selected names. TRU, discussed at R56, has nearly doubled in price over 14 months. Truworths - as discussed in the report (Active Trading Plan, Monday 03 July 2023) Then at R56 - now nearly R110. Not a client yet? Get in touch today. ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that   are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which   is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis for any tradeable instrument across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. The tool helps to determine and shed light on the some of the following: Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position? Whether a share is weak or if aggressive buying is underway Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Aspen Pharmacare & More  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za Note the price action guide having already given traders a buy reading on Tuesday evening, with a decent intraday move yesterday (Wednesday 02 April). Previous Post: Aspen Pharmacare: In The Money (+8.5%) and a 4-Month High In The Money (+8.5%) - and at a 4 1/2 month high of 185.95 thus far today! Previous Post: Our Capabilities - Aspen Pharmacare Trade Ideas For Getting Long, Short & Long Again. Within the span of 24 months, the share has provided clients of Unum Capital with three opportunities to profit. These opportunities came on the long (buy), short (sell) side and then long (buy) side again, benefiting from a rising and falling share price. The short leg provided short term traders with 3x opportunities to sell above 23500c. Although the share briefly test the stop-loss level (a spike), the share pullback was in line with the view. The updated chart, with the time-stamped ideas, is shown below. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Capitec Bank   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za The move is in line with the price action model at the time, which warned traders to avoid chasing and looked for a potential failure to hold the prior session/range highs. Previous Post (Thursday 27 March) Trading Note: Capitec Bank Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Foschini Group/TFG   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za High bearish momentum, but testing the lower boundary of the range. Previous Post (Monday 24 March): Trading TFG / Foschini Group This is an update on the previous post in which we highlighted the early buy readings. The re-entry ranges have been unchanged. Note the 5 to 8 week reading which is in line with the current trend i.e. recognition of aggressive selling but noting that the downward momentum is possibly slowing. It also alerts us to look for support on the 21 or 50-month EMA. Previous Post (Friday 07 March) Buy Idea: GET READY to trade. A +27% pullback off it's early December peak. Early buy readings places the share on the watchlist, with provisional manual levels (ranges) highlighted. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   MTN Group   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za The move is also in line with the then (live) price action model reading. See the original post further down on the this page. The chart below is 'current'. Previous Post (25 March): Now 53% Higher, The Technical Reward-To-Risk Is Less Appealing Over a period of 8 months (since 18 July 2024), MTN Group has offered traders opportunities to get long (i.e. buy). This is was driven in part by the price action model readings as well as manual review of the technical structure (falling wedge pattern). Although there may be room for further upside, at current levels, the price action model reading (shown below) points to a less appealing reward-to-risk, with overbought conditions being present. Q: What is the overall trend? A: The overall trend is bullish but with overbought conditions. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: Overbought Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: Very Bullish Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: No, the risk-reward is unattractive. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term sell/short position? A: Potentially, if there is an overshoot or failure to hold prior session range highs. Q: What is the current position & trend for the short term (1 to 10 days)? A: Would not enter long due to unattractive risk-reward, expecting consolidation or minor retracement. Q: What is the current position & trend for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: Aggressive buying but overbought, expecting consolidation or minor retracement. Q: What is the current position & trend for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: Aggressive buying, but do not chase. Look for overshoot or failure to hold prior session range highs to short, aiming to sell back to the 8-EMA. Summary: For the short term (1 to 10 days), the strategy would be to avoid long positions due to the unattractive risk-reward, with the expectation of consolidation or a minor retracement. In the medium term (2 to 4 weeks), despite aggressive buying, the market is overbought, suggesting a strategy of watching for consolidation or a minor retracement. For the long term (5 to 8 weeks), while the trend remains aggressively bullish, the strategy is to avoid chasing the price and instead look for potential overshoot or failure to hold prior session range highs to initiate short positions, aiming to sell back to the 8-EMA. The price action model reading as highlight at 7400c on 18 July 2024. The original post can be accessed at the following link: https://www.unum.capital/post/mtn-group-here-s-what-the-data-says-thursday-18-july-2024 MTN Falling Wedge Structure (27 November). The original post can be accessed at the following link: https://www.unum.capital/post/mtn-group-levels-of-interest-falling-wedge-structure Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za For the active trader, looking to generate cash flow, there's always opportunity. A rebound off the 21-EMA from 11758c to above 12100c. Get In. Get Out. Get Paid. Trading Note (published yesterday evening, 01 April): Impala Platinum IMP in a strong upward trend however note the bearish engulfing candle i.e. outside bar which may be signaling the potential start of a short term loss of momentum. Closed below the 8-day EMA for the first time since 04 March. Both the 21-day EMA and 50-day EMA continues to trend higher while the 21-day EMA is above the 50-day EMA (positive). On an intraday basis, my best probability range for buyers to step in is at the 21-day EMA. Say, 11570c to 11665c. These levels are subject to change based on the subsequent price action and news flow. Ultra Short Term: The 21-day EMA (at or just below) is a range to watch. Short Term: The 50-day EMA/75-day EMA is a level of interest should a deeper pullback occur. Preferred Strategies & Setups To Generate Cash Flow (Click To Enlarge) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Vodacom Group (VOD) with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za The move is also in line with our view at the beginning of this year in which we looked for OUTPERFORMANCE from the Telecommunications sector relative to the Top 40. That was discussed on 02 January at the following link: https://www.unum.capital/post/telecoms-relative-change-of-trend The current model reading is as follows: Previous Post: 🔔Strategy Alert: Vodacom Group at R90 (Date: 13 June) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Shoprite Holdings (SHP) with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za UPDATE: Currently trading 1000c higher vs the buy range. Closed today's session at 27797c. The original note is shown below: Previous Post (04 March): Trading Shoprite: Gap Filled + Approaching Oversold + Updated Model Reading Also, trading into the level of interest. Early buy readings, but heavy selling at present as noted by the large red candle. Look for stabilization on the lower time frame (30-Min, 1H, 2H) Previous Post (16 February): Trading Shoprite: Get ready To Trade + Levels of Interest. For clients trading SHP - watch the R260 to R265 range. It is a provisional level of interest on the buy/long side. If the price action change, we'll be quick to adjust. Stay flexible. Previous Post: Trading: Shoprite Holdings (SHP) Our selling level for the share was 31400c, as discussed on 01 August (scroll down to see original chart + comment). Over the past few months, the 31400c level was recognized by the market and has since acted as a level at which participants distributed the share . On a relative basis, SHP has also underperformed the JSE Top 40 Index. Note: there is an unfilled gap at 26462c which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This is possible short term buy/long re-accumulation level or a range to cover any short/sell positions. Previous Post: Shoprite: Marked Down - Tuesday, 03 September 2024 Real-Time: 10h38 Ticker: SHP The +31400c level was 'penciled in' as a level to monitor for an entry on the short/sell side. This is where sellers stepped in, from which have seen a sell-off down to 29542c at today's low (thus far). The group's earnings release has acted as a catalyst for the selling pressure. My original view is shown below: Previous Post: (01 August) : Overbought Near Key Inflection Points Real-Time: 10h38 Shoprite Holdings (SHP) ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that   are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which   is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis for any tradeable instrument across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. The tool helps to determine and shed light on the some of the following: A price action probability for the given time frame. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias.