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- Yield Down, Price Up. Well Done Bond Buyers
Trade Fixed Income ETFs with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za The move lower in bond yields is in line with our previous view (driven by the model/Tactical Trading Guide) that yields had become overbought (above 4.7%) in the short and medium term and that a risk of a bearish reversal was possible. At current levels we are seeing a potential bear flag technical formation support by poor candle structure on the yield. US 10-Year Bond Yield Chart as of Friday 28 March (U.S. Trading Session) Previous Post: U.S. 10-YEAR BOND YIELD Bullish Momentum However, Approaching Short Term Overbought (08 January 2025) Overall Summary The image presents a price action analysis for the US 10-Year Bond Yield, focusing on three timeframes: Short Term (1-10 days), Medium Term (2-4 weeks), and Long Term (5-8 weeks). Key Observations 7-Day Trend: High Bullish Momentum, Approaching Overbought 14-Day Trend: Very Bullish Short Term (1-10 days): Price Action Reading: Very Strong Move, Buyers in Control, but Don't Chase - May Fail to Hold the Highs; If it doesn't hold, the 8-EMA may be a short-sell target. Medium Term (2-4 weeks): Price Action Reading: Aggressive Buying but Do Not Chase - Look for Overshoot or Failure to Hold Prior Session Highs to Short-Sell Back to the 8-EMA. Long Term (5-8 weeks): Price Action Reading: Attempting to Advance Whilst in a Bullish Regime - If it Pulls Back, Use Prior Session Close or 8-EMA as an Accumulation Zone. Interpretation Bullish Momentum: The price of the US 10-Year Bond Yield has been rising strongly in the short term. Caution: The momentum is approaching overbought territory, suggesting a potential reversal. Trading Strategy: Short-term traders: Be cautious of chasing the price higher. Look for signs of weakness (like a failure to hold recent highs) to potentially short-sell. Medium-term traders: Avoid chasing aggressive buying. Look for opportunities to short-sell if the price overshoots or fails to hold prior session highs. Long-term traders: Maintain a bullish bias. If the price pulls back, consider accumulating (buying) near the prior session close or the 8-EMA support level. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- JSE Gold Miners: After A 60% Rally, Here's What The Data Says
Trade JSE Gold Miners with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Since November, Gold Miners have rallied between 55% and 60%, with the specific gains as follows: ANG R430 to R 692(+60%) GFI R240 to R405 (+68%) HAR R160 to R249 (+55%) The graphic below is an extract from the report (The Sum of the Charts) dated Monday 18 November (2024) and highlights the price action model readings which was taken during the analyst's research as at the close of trade on Thursday 14 November (2024). The readings coincided with the range lows for the share and has subsequently staged substantial rallies over the period. This is NOT ONLY for the 1 to 10 day time frames (where the model stated that the reward-to-risk had become attractive for a buy/long position , but ALSO for the 5 to 8 week time frames which stated that there was a probability of a rebound (see both ANG and GFI). Scroll down to view all three charts as well as the levels which coincided with the readings. Click to enlarge the image. Anglogold Ashanti - Price Action Model Reading as of Friday afternoon, 28 March. Gold Fields - Price Action Model Reading as of Friday afternoon, 28 March. Harmony Gold - Price Action Model Reading as of Friday afternoon, 28 March. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Sibanye Stillwater: After A +40% Rally, Here's What The Data Says
Trade Platinum Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za The share is now running +40% from our 28-February note: " Long Term Cycle Ready To Unfold? ". The original note can be accessed at the following link: https://www.unum.capital/post/ssw-long-term Previous Post: Update: Sibanye Running +26% | Northam Running +30% Originally published and discussed here ('Long Term Cycle Ready To Unfold'): https://www.unum.capital/post/ssw-long-term Updated/Current Chart: It's also worth noting that the price action model gave us a 'heads up' that the share was becoming attractive for a small buy/long position. (Time-stamped for end of 27 February. Actually low was the following session Friday 28 February). Northam Platinum - exact same as SSW - running +30% Previous Post: Unum Capital Clients Benefit From Top Weekly Performers Out of the 101 local shares on my watchlist, NPH, IMP, SSW and ARI were the top performers (as of 11h15 on Friday morning). All four (4) were timeously discussed and highlighted in our research . Impala Platinum, Northam Platinum & Sibanye Stillwater https://www.unum.capital/post/plat-shares-gain Sibanye Stillwater (Single Post) https://www.unum.capital/post/sibanye-gain African Rainbow Minerals https://www.unum.capital/post/afrirain-cash Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading Telkom: Well Done Longs. Now +63% Over 7 Months
Trade Telkom with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za If you've been long off the strategy alert, consider reducing into strength. Current Price Action Model Reading Previous Post: Strategy Alert (16 August 2024) Pre-Market Ticker: TKG Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Richards Bay Coal Futures
The 92.00 level has been a multi-year support range, with the commodity having tested it with a rebound on two occasions. This level (92.00, up to 100.00) also represents the previous multi-year breakout range which makes this a natural re-test. Considering the rebound this far today, one has to question whether the breakdown and reclaim is part of a false breakdown that could lead to a sharp upward reversal. Retaining it's ultra short term strength is key for this development to occur. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading S&P 500 Index
Trade Global Indices with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za The short term rebound has been met with resistance and a rollover, with the having re-tested the underside of the widely-watched 200-day simple moving average as well as the declining 21-day exponential moving average. More broadly, the index is trading below it's 75-day EMA and the 21-week EMA has started to lose upside momentum by turning lower. Plotting a parallel channel, a further deterioration of price would potential target the lower boundary of the channel, which comes in at 5225 to 5300. The weakness in U.S equities is a validation of a BEARISH VIEW express on 05 December 2024. Previous Post: U.S. Indices: Bullish Reversals In Line With Model Readings S&P 500 | Dow | Nasdaq | Russell 2000 This is an update on the previous post which highlighted the price action model readings for the 4 major U.S indices. Since then, we have seen a short term rally, in line with oversold or approaching oversold conditions. The original readings can be found on this same page (scroll down). For the S&P 500 , the then OVERSOLD and VERY BEARISH ratings were a setup for a bearish unwind (i.e. a rebound). The yellow arrow on the daily chart highlights the date/time of the note. For the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) , the model reading alerted traders with the following reading: "Very aggressive selling underway. Wait until momentum starts to slow before buying. Alternatively, phase in your buying'. The yellow arrow on the daily chart highlights the date/time of the note. For the Nasdaq 100, the then HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUUM / APPROACHING OVERSOLD and VERY BEARISH ratings were a setup for a bearish unwind (i.e. a rebound). The yellow arrow on the daily chart highlights the date/time of the note. For the Russell 2000 Index (Small Caps), the then HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUUM / APPROACHING OVERSOLD and VERY BEARISH ratings were a setup for a bearish unwind (i.e. a rebound). Also note, the model reading (5 to 8 weeks), highlighted the share having been weak with selling pressure however that there was a probability of a small rebound. The yellow arrow on the daily chart highlights the date/time of the note. Previous Post (Wednesday 12 March): Trading U.S. Indices Analysis of the four major indices: S&P 500 Dow Jones Industrial Average Nasdaq 100 Russell 2000 (Small Caps) S&P 500 Index / US 500 No readings across the 3 time frames however, it does reflect an oversold regime, with the 14-day trend being very bearish. Selling pressure continues to be aggressive therefore prices can remain under pressure for long than anticipated. Look for the lower time frames (1H, 2H and 4H) to improve/stabilize. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) / US30 Q: What is the overall trend for Dow Jones Industrial Average? A: The overall trend is bearish (downward). 1 This is evident across all time frames (short, medium, and long term) Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The 7-day trend is High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The 14-day trend is Very Bearish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: Potentially, with caution. The analysis suggests waiting for the "downward momentum to slow" or to "phase in buying." This indicates the possibility of a short-term bounce or reversal, but it's not a strong buy signal yet. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term sell/short position? A: Not explicitly recommended. The analysis focuses on the potential for a slowing of the bearish momentum, suggesting that the strongest part of the sell-off may be over. Q: What is the current position & trend for the short term (1 to 10 days)? A: Very Aggressive Selling. The analysis recommends waiting for the downward momentum to slow before buying or phasing in buying. Q: What is the current position & trend for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: Aggressive Selling. The analysis suggests waiting for lower time frames to stabilize before considering any buying. Q: What is the current position & trend for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: Aggressive Selling Following A Steady Upward Trend. The analysis is looking for support at prior swing lows to capture minor rebounds, implying a continuation of the downtrend with potential temporary bounces. In summary: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is experiencing a strong bearish trend across all time frames. The analysis suggests caution for buyers and recommends waiting for signs of stabilization or a slowing of the downward momentum before considering long positions. There may be opportunities for short-term rebounds, but these should be approached with care and confirmation of a trend reversal. The overall outlook remains bearish. Nasdaq 100 Index (US100) Q: What is the overall trend for Nasdaq 100? A: The overall trend is bearish or negative, as indicated by the "High Bearish Momentum" and "Very Bearish" signals in the short term, and the "Aggressive Selling" in the long term. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The current 7-day trend is High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The current 14-day trend is Very Bearish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: There might be a potential opportunity for a short-term buy/long position, but it's risky. The "Approaching Oversold" condition in the 7-day trend suggests a possible bounce, but the "Very Weak" signal and the "Very Bearish" 14-day trend indicate strong downward pressure. The strategy would be to "Wait Until It Stabilizes On The Lower Time Frame" before considering any long positions. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term sell/short position? A: There is a strong opportunity for a short-term sell/short position provided the index fails shows deteriorating candle structure or overbought conditions on any short term rally. The "Very Weak" and "Very Bearish" signals indicate continued downward momentum. Q: What is the current position & trend for the short term (1 to 10 days)? A: The current position and trend for the short term (1 to 10 days) is Very Weak. The advice is to "Wait Until It Stabilizes On The Lower Time Frame". Q: What is the current position & trend for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: The current position and trend for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks) is Persistently Weak. The advice is to "Monitor Lower Times For Rebound Potential". Q: What is the current position & trend for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: The current position and trend for the long term (5 to 8 weeks) is Aggressive Selling Following A Steady Upward Trend. The strategy would be to "Look For Support At Prior Swing Lows To Capture Minor Rebounds". In summary: The Nasdaq 100 is experiencing a strong bearish trend across all time frames. The short-term is showing signs of being oversold, but the overall momentum is still downwards. Shorting opportunities are present, but any long positions should be approached with extreme caution and only after confirming stabilization on lower time frames. The medium and long-term trends suggest continued weakness, with potential for minor rebounds at support levels. Russell 2000 Index (Small Caps) Q: What is the overall trend for RUSSELL 2000 INDEX? A: The overall trend for the Russell 2000 Index is bearish, with indications of continued weakness but potential for a small rebound. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The current 7-day trend is high bearish momentum and approaching oversold. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The current 14-day trend is very bearish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: The short-term analysis suggests the market is approaching oversold, which could present a potential opportunity for a short-term buy/long position. However, this should be approached cautiously due to the overall bearish momentum. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term sell/short position? A: For now, this opportunity has passed, given the bearish 14-day trend and high bearish momentum in the 7-day trend, a rebound is more likely, especially if the oversold condition is reached with strong candle structure on the lower time frames. Q: What is the current position & trend for the short term (1 to 10 days)? A: The current position for the short term is bearish, with high bearish momentum and approaching oversold conditions. The trend is weak but showing signs of potential for a small rebound. Q: What is the current position & trend for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: The current position for the medium term is persistently weak, but there's a need to monitor for potential lower times for a rebound. The trend is bearish but with potential signs of a reversal. Q: What is the current position & trend for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: The current position for the long term is weak, with selling pressure. However, there's a probability of a small rebound. The trend is bearish but with signs of a potential recovery. In summary: The Russell 2000 Index is currently in a bearish trend across all time frames (short, medium, and long term). The short-term analysis indicates the index is approaching oversold territory, which could lead to a temporary rebound. However, the overall bearish momentum suggests that any rebound might be short-lived. Traders should exercise caution and consider both potential short-term buy/long and sell/short opportunities, keeping in mind the prevailing bearish sentiment. Previous Post: Our Research, Your Opportunity: S&P 500 Index Model Unfolding Snapshot as of 20h47 (Monday 10 March) An 8% pullback off the price action model reading in 05 December. As per the model reading at the time: (1) " Possible bearish reversal, following a very bullish move " and (2) " Aggressive Buying But Overbought On The Lower Time Frame - Expect a consolidation or Minor Retracement ". Previous Post On 05 December we discussed the index, highlighting the risk of a medium term retracement as well as the live reading from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Model) which was as follows: (2 to 4 week time frame): "a possible bearish reversal following a very bullish move" and (5 to 8 week time frame): Aggressive buying underway, but overbought on the lower time frame. Expect a consolidation or a minor retracement". Our analysis coincided with the medium term top as the index retreated from 6098 to 5768 (-330 points or -5%). This was followed by a rebound however, the index has struggled to clear over the overhead resistance range and maintain it's position above 6098 for a sustained period. Over the course of this week, we saw broad-based selling pressure, with the index at multi-week lows. The only two sectors which saw safe-haven buying were Consumer Staples and Utilities, both of which have featured strongly on our screens prior to the note and which we published as buy candidates. Links as follows: https://www.unum.capital/post/iyk-etf + https://www.unum.capital/post/jxi-etf S&P 500 Index Chart (Current) Previous Post: S&P 500 Index: Risk of a Medium Term Retracement Thursday 05 December 2024 (Time: 21h49) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading JSE Insurers
Trade JSE Insurers with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- High Impact: U.S. Relative Sector Analysis
Trade U.S. Shares & ETFs with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za *Note Prepared on Friday, 28 March (before the open of the U.S. trading session). Sector Analysis: Materials vs. SPY: Short Term: Neutral (Hold/Watch) Medium Term: Strong (Buy/Hold) Long Term: Weak (Sell/Avoid) Analysis: The conflicting signals make this sector tricky. The strong medium-term is encouraging, but the short-term neutrality and long-term weakness create uncertainty. Overall, given the short-term's higher weight, a cautious approach is warranted. Consider holding if already invested, but don't rush to buy. Communications vs. SPY: Short Term: Strong (Buy/Hold) Medium Term: Strong (Buy/Hold) Long Term: Strong (Buy/Hold) Analysis: This sector is consistently strong across all timeframes, indicating a clear buy/hold signal. It's a high-conviction sector. Energy vs. SPY: Short Term: Strong (Buy/Hold) Medium Term: Strong (Buy/Hold) Long Term: Neutral (Hold/Watch) Analysis: The strong short and medium-term trends outweigh the neutral long-term. This sector appears bullish in the near to medium term, making it a good candidate for buying or holding. Financials vs. SPY: Short Term: Strong (Buy/Hold) - High Bullish Momentum/Approaching Overbought Medium Term: Strong (Buy/Hold) Long Term: Strong (Buy/Hold) Analysis: Financials are another strong sector across all timeframes. However, the note about "approaching overbought" suggests that while the trend is strong, it might be wise to be cautious about chasing the price too high. Industrials vs. SPY: Short Term: Neutral (Hold/Watch) Medium Term: Strong (Buy/Hold) Long Term: Neutral (Hold/Watch) Analysis: Similar to Materials, this sector presents mixed signals. The strong medium-term is positive, but the short and long-term neutrality suggests a lack of clear direction. Given the short-term's higher weight, a hold/watch approach is recommended. Technology vs. SPY: Short Term: Weak (Sell/Avoid) Medium Term: Weak (Sell/Avoid) - High Bearish Momentum/Approaching Oversold Long Term: Weak (Sell/Avoid) Analysis: Technology is consistently weak across all timeframes, indicating a clear sell/avoid signal. The "approaching oversold" note suggests that while the sector might be due for a bounce, the overall trend remains bearish. Consumer Staples vs. SPY: Short Term: Strong (Buy/Hold) Medium Term: Strong (Buy/Hold) Long Term: Neutral (Hold/Watch) Analysis: This sector is strong in the short and medium term, outweighing the neutral long-term. It's a good candidate for buying or holding, especially for those seeking stability. Real Estate vs. SPY: Short Term: Neutral (Hold/Watch) Medium Term: Strong (Buy/Hold) Long Term: Neutral (Hold/Watch) Analysis: Similar to Industrials and Materials, Real Estate presents mixed signals. The strong medium-term is positive, but the short and long-term neutrality suggests a lack of clear direction. Given the short-term's higher weight, a hold/watch approach is recommended. Utilities vs. SPY: Short Term: Neutral (Hold/Watch) Medium Term: Strong (Buy/Hold) Long Term: Neutral (Hold/Watch) Analysis: The pattern is consistent with Real Estate and Industrials. Given the short-term's higher weight, a hold/watch approach is recommended. Healthcare vs. SPY: Short Term: Neutral (Hold/Watch) Medium Term: Strong (Buy/Hold) Long Term: Neutral (Hold/Watch) Analysis: The pattern is consistent with Real Estate, Industrials, and Utilities. Given the short-term's higher weight, a hold/watch approach is recommended. Consumer Discretionary vs. SPY: Short Term: Strong (Buy/Hold) Medium Term: Neutral (Hold/Watch) Long Term: Neutral (Hold/Watch) Analysis: The strong short-term trend is a positive signal, suggesting potential near-term gains. However, the neutral medium and long-term trends indicate a need for caution. Consider buying/holding for short-term gains, but be prepared to exit if the trend reverses. Key Takeaways: Strong Buys: Communications and Financials show consistent strength. Cautious Buys/Holds: Energy and Consumer Staples are strong in the short and medium term. Holds/Watch: Materials, Industrials, Real Estate, Utilities, and Healthcare require a more cautious approach due to mixed signals. Sells/Avoids: Technology is consistently weak. Short-Term Focus: Remember that the short-term carries the most weight, so prioritize those signals when making decisions. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading Naspers & Prosus
Trade Local & Global Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za NASPERS | Following a massive rally, momentum has slowed with the candle structure continuing to reflect medium term distribution. The triple top technical formation is noted, and, while the share continues to hold the rising 21-day EMA, this support level appears to be at risk of being breached (to the downside). Provisional next best actionable area: 75-DAY EMA/21-WEEK EMA [R4247 - R4348]. PROSUS | Provisional next best actionable area: 75-DAY EMA/21-WEEK EMA [R775 - R795] Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Glencore Relative To Copper
Trade Glencore Plc with Unum Capital To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Glencore Relative To Copper | Our recently idea for Glencore (Buy) was published at a live price of 7140c. Upon further analysis, we thought it may be worth noting that the share has decoupled from one of it's main commodities, that being Copper. A review of the weekly chart (GLN vs Copper) highlights the ratio trading close to the incline of a multi-year trend line extending back to 2015. This is NOT a recommendation for pairs trade but rather a chart to highlight the extreme divergence between the share price and the underlying commodity. Trade Idea: Buy Glencore (Monday 24 March at 09h24) This idea is based, in part, on my previous note (11 February). " Glencore Plc: Managing Risk via the Monthly Chart" Text as per the graphic below: MEDIUM TERM VIEW. HIGH RISK BUY IDEA therefore small-than-average position sizes may apply. The share has been sold off aggressively and is in a high bearish momentum regime while also approaching an oversold range. I do NOT think that THIS is the exact low (i.e. I am expecting lower levels) however, this may be a RANGE to starting building a buy/long position with the expectation that a base starts to form over the near term followed by a potential bullish reversal. Buy at current levels or lower (traders could consider starting with a 1/3 of the position). In terms of probabilities, it's possible that the share could trade down to the 7000c range (this is NOT a prediction, but merely a probability based on candle structure, momentum etc.). Note the 7000c level coincides with the previous MONTHLY CHART breakout level. As always, traders could consider the following if/when the prices approaches the target: bank/take profit, partially scale out, adjust the stop-loss to protect profits. Time stop: 03 October 2025. Trading Levels Entry: 7140c Target: 8300c Stop-loss: 6440c Previous Post: " Glencore Plc: Managing Risk via the Monthly Chart" The monthly chart is a useful, and often overlooked tool for investors and traders looking to manage risk. In 2023, our analysis highlighted 3 aspects which alerted traders to downside risk over the medium term: (1) The bearish MACD crossover (2) the channel resistance and (2) the breakdown in the 14-month RSI. At the time, clients were exposed to the following view via the monthly chart at a price of R104. (Current level = R79) Current View (Long Term): Weak and in a downward trend; Looking to re-test the previous breakout level of R70 as per the monthly chart. Last Price: 7978c. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading British American Tobacco
#EarlyAccess Trade British American Tobacco with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za The medium term outlook notes the share having reached multi-month highs, followed by a pullback and a short term rebound. The candle structure continues to reflect medium term distribution with potential for further selling pressure and a potential re-test of the trend line extending back to April 2024 swing lows. Provisional next best actionable area: 50-WEEK / 200-DAY SMA [R665 - R677]. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading Richemont
#EarlyAccess Trade Richemont with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Potential Gap Fill + Re-Test of Breakout Level Into and at the recent highs, the price action model alerted traders to overbought conditions with the subsequent unwind and lower levels. The candle structure continues to reflect short term distribution. Note: An unfilled gap at R2927 has the potential to be filled with is in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement range. Provisional next best actionable area: 21-WEEK EMA [R2934 - R3019] Previous Post (07 March): Getting (or Staying) Rich With Richemont On Wednesday 03 February we discussed Richemont, highlighting the price action model's unfavorable reward-to-risk on the buy/long side. Bear in mind, this has been a massive winner since our note on 26 November, alerting traders to monitor for a change of trend to go from neutral to bullish. To recap the 2 to 4 week reading ('do not enter a buy/long at current levels. the reward-to-risk is unattractive') while the 5 to 8 week reading stated ('aggressive buying is underway however the share is overbought on the lower time frame. expect a consolidation or a minor retracement'). At the recent peak (03 March), the price action model was prescient in identifying the overbought conditions and potential for a pullback. Over the last two sessions, the share has been under significant selling pressure. Well done to traders who may have capitalized on both the long and (then) short side. Previous Post (Wednesday 05 February) Trading Richemont: Model Reading Points To Unfavorable Reward-To-Risk CFR Daily Chart as of Wednesday 05 February at 08h52 Previous Post: Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index, The Share Is Approaching Overbought The chart below highlights the relative/ratio charts price distance versus it's medium term 75-day EMA. Previous Post: Richemont: Sharp Bullish Reversal, In Line With Trading Comment & Model Reading The comment below is an extract from our note on Richemont, dated 26 November 2024. "While it the trend is down and the fundamental outlook is bearish, it may be worthwhile to keep an open mind for a potential change of trend following this multi-month consolidation" - Lester Davids, 26-Nov-2024. The chart below highlights the share price development since: CFR chart as of Thursday 16 January at 09h16 You may also recall the end of day model reading (26-Nov) stating the following: "Attempting a rebound following a downward trend. The share may consolidate further before continuing, higher" . The share has since risen by 34%. Previous Post: Tuesday 26 November 2024 (Time Published: 06h09) The current price trend (down) reflects the automatic price action reading which clearly states the share is weak (ST & MT) while the 8-week and 21-week EMA may act as resistance ranges on any short term rally. The fundamental impact on price is known, with the impact of the Chinese slowdown having filtered through to almost all global luxury peers, resulting in muted growth prospects which has caused market participants to sell down the shares. The share was previous a short/sell idea on 07 June when it traded into extreme short term overbought territory at a high of R3194 before retreating by 27% to it's recent low of R2309. While it the trend is fundamental outlook is bearish and the price is trending down, it may be worthwhile to keep an open mind for a potential change of trend following this multi-month consolidation . What do we need to see? Strong price action with volume would be an early indicator that the market's sentiment toward the share is starting to change + clear/reclaiming the downward trend line in place since the recent peak of 07 June 2024. View as of Thursday 21 November at 10h52. Previous Post: Richemont Is Retreating In Line With Model Reading - Wednesday, 18 September 2024 Real-Time: 10h45 Ticker: CFR Currently lower by R415 or 15.4% Potential target is the unfilled gap at ~R2380 Previous Post (22 August 2024) • REAL-TIME: 15h30 ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis for any tradeable instrument across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. The tool helps to determine and shed light on the some of the following: Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position? Whether a share is weak or if aggressive buying is underway Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital












