Search this site

As a client of Unum Capital, you have access to powerful data that helps to manage reward-to-risk and uncover opportunities. To make the switch to Unum Capital , e-mail   lester@unum.co.za This note highlights how price action model readings helped to identify 2 areas of risk and 2 areas of opportunity for Capitec Bank. Note: The price action model readings for all instruments continuously change as the price evolves. All readings are time-stamped (see red markings). SELL READINGS: 2 areas of risk BUY READINGS: 2 areas of opportunity Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Nedbank   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za The share traded into the buy range (reached the lower boundary) and has rallied by 1500c. In the line with the price action model reading! Previous Post (Thursday 20 March for Monday 24 March): Trading Nedbank: Early Model Trigger The share is one few that has triggered an early buy reading on the short term time frame. Provisional buy re-entry range is between 25200c and 25500c. Last close = 25926c. Previous Post: Nedbank Full Year Results: 12 Key Points Analyst's Disclosure: These results were summarized using an A.I tool. Improved Performance: Nedbank reported an 8% increase in headline earnings, reaching R16.9 billion, and a strengthened return on equity (ROE) of 15.8%, indicating progress towards their financial targets. Challenging Economy: The 2024 operating environment was difficult, with low South African GDP growth. However, a stable election outcome and gradual improvements in the fourth quarter provided some optimism. Financial Results: Headline earnings growth was driven by strong non-interest revenue, lower impairment charges, and effective expense management, despite slower loan growth and margin pressures. Shareholder Returns: Diluted headline earnings per share (DHEPS) rose by 11%, benefiting from share buybacks. A final dividend of 1,104 cents per share was declared, up by 8%. Technology Transformation: The completion of the Managed Evolution IT transformation provided a modern technology platform, supporting digital growth and improved client satisfaction. Strategic Gains: Nedbank achieved market share gains in key areas, including home loans, vehicle finance, and wholesale term lending, alongside growth in retail deposits. Sustainable Finance: The bank continued its commitment to sustainable development, with substantial lending aligned with UN Sustainable Development Goals, and significant growth in renewable energy financing. Operational Efficiency: The Target Operating Model 2.0 program delivered R3 billion in cost benefits through headcount reduction, real estate optimization, and back-office improvements. Strategic Evolution: The new Transform agenda focuses on leveraging technology, data, and AI, optimizing processes, expanding insurance cross-selling, and diversifying into East Africa. Organizational Restructuring: Nedbank is restructuring its Retail and Business Banking (RBB) and Wealth clusters for greater client centricity, creating Personal and Private Banking (PPB) and Business and Commercial Banking (BCB) divisions. Cautious Optimism: Nedbank anticipates an improved South African economic environment in 2025, with forecasted GDP growth and declining interest rates, which gives confidence in continued ROE growth. Strong Foundations: Nedbank emphasizes its strong capital and liquidity, vibrant culture, ESG leadership, and technology investments, positioning it for future growth and continued progress towards its ROE targets. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Nedbank   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za The share traded into the buy range (reached the lower boundary) and has rallied by 1500c. In the line with the price action model reading! Previous Post (Thursday 20 March for Monday 24 March): Trading Nedbank: Early Model Trigger The share is one few that has triggered an early buy reading on the short term time frame. Provisional buy re-entry range is between 25200c and 25500c. Last close = 25926c. Previous Post: Nedbank Full Year Results: 12 Key Points Analyst's Disclosure: These results were summarized using an A.I tool. Improved Performance: Nedbank reported an 8% increase in headline earnings, reaching R16.9 billion, and a strengthened return on equity (ROE) of 15.8%, indicating progress towards their financial targets. Challenging Economy: The 2024 operating environment was difficult, with low South African GDP growth. However, a stable election outcome and gradual improvements in the fourth quarter provided some optimism. Financial Results: Headline earnings growth was driven by strong non-interest revenue, lower impairment charges, and effective expense management, despite slower loan growth and margin pressures. Shareholder Returns: Diluted headline earnings per share (DHEPS) rose by 11%, benefiting from share buybacks. A final dividend of 1,104 cents per share was declared, up by 8%. Technology Transformation: The completion of the Managed Evolution IT transformation provided a modern technology platform, supporting digital growth and improved client satisfaction. Strategic Gains: Nedbank achieved market share gains in key areas, including home loans, vehicle finance, and wholesale term lending, alongside growth in retail deposits. Sustainable Finance: The bank continued its commitment to sustainable development, with substantial lending aligned with UN Sustainable Development Goals, and significant growth in renewable energy financing. Operational Efficiency: The Target Operating Model 2.0 program delivered R3 billion in cost benefits through headcount reduction, real estate optimization, and back-office improvements. Strategic Evolution: The new Transform agenda focuses on leveraging technology, data, and AI, optimizing processes, expanding insurance cross-selling, and diversifying into East Africa. Organizational Restructuring: Nedbank is restructuring its Retail and Business Banking (RBB) and Wealth clusters for greater client centricity, creating Personal and Private Banking (PPB) and Business and Commercial Banking (BCB) divisions. Cautious Optimism: Nedbank anticipates an improved South African economic environment in 2025, with forecasted GDP growth and declining interest rates, which gives confidence in continued ROE growth. Strong Foundations: Nedbank emphasizes its strong capital and liquidity, vibrant culture, ESG leadership, and technology investments, positioning it for future growth and continued progress towards its ROE targets. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Sappi  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Strategy alert + awareness of current model reading: Previously, clients were alerted to a buy/long setup which subsequently saw a rally from R44 to R55 (+25%). Below is the current model reading however (see the short and medium term) however also note the long term (5 to 8 weeks) which states that traders should wait for the lower time frames to stabilize. Provisionally, the 3555c to 3770c range is a level of interest. i.e. subject to change as the price action develops. SAP chart as of yesterday's close (Tuesday 25 March) Previous Post: Wednesday 20 November 2024 (Time Pre-Market) SAPPI Long & Short: Bullish Target Exceeded (+24%) & Pullback In Line With Model Long & Short: Bullish Target Exceeded (+24%) & Pullback In Line With Model The most recent pullback off the highs coincides with the reading on 07-Nov (day of price peak) which stated that 'a strong move had develop however and that buyers were in control however, traders should not chase i.e. should not buy as the price could fail to hold it's highs. In which case, the 8-day EMA could be a short/sell target. The subsequent price action accurately reflects this model reading with the share retreating from above 5470c to yesterday's low of 4904c. Current Rating = Weak (Previous Overbought At The Recent Price Peak) The original (time-stamped) model reading is shown below. Previous Post: Take Profit On This Rally https://www.unum.capital/post/sappi-take-profit-on-this-rally Friday 08 November 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market Ticker: SAP Share Name: Sappi +24% from the model reading to yesterday's highs. Previous Post 14 August 2024 Pre-Market Previous Post 06 August - Real-Time: 16h09 Amidst the short term sell-off, here's what the data says. (Do note, event risk in the form of earnings loom). Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Remgro   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Our manual and automated buy readings are seeing follow-through. As is mostly the case, strong sell-off tend to generate buy readings. This was the case on 23 January when the end of day reading stated that the reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a buy. The updated chart + time stamped model reading is shown below: Price Action Model Reading as of today's close. (Previous Post: 12 August) - Strategy Alert Real-Time: 15h45 Ticker: REM Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade JSE Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital (Data as of end of day Friday 14 March 2025)

Access Global ETFs   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za The ETF is acting in line with the price action model reading where the probability was for a small rebound. Scroll down for the original post. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Netcare   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za At one point today the share was higher by as much as 4.9%. Interesting price action throughout the session! Previous Post (Pre-Market Monday 24 March): Trading Netcare: Downward Momentum Slowing + Candle Structure Improving On the watchlist as a buy idea. Provisional trading range: Entry: 1282c to 1307c Stop-loss: 1242c Target: 1402c Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade JSE Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za An update on our previous note in which we ran a technical screen looking for stocks to reduce/sell in the ultra short term. AMS from +R755 on Thursday to ~R698 today ✔ IMP from +R127 on Thursday to ~R117 today ✔ GFI from +R397 on Thursday to ~R373 today ✔ ANG from +R656 on Thursday to ~R632 today ✔ NPH from +R134 on Thursday to ~R124 today ✔ HAR from +R237 on Thursday to ~R228 today ✔ NPH from +R27 on Thursday to ~R25.02 today ✔ SSW from +R19.95 on Thursday to ~R19.06 today ✔ ANH...Flat ~ BLU...Flat ~ MTN was the only exception in the list as it has has a strong few sessions Previous Post (Thursday 20 March) Technical Screen: For These Shares, Consider Reducing Buy/Long Positions For Short Term Traders, These Shares Offer A Poor Buy/Long Reward-To-Risk . If you are a short term trader that has held a buy/long position in these shares, it may be worth considering reduce your buy/long position. By my metrics, these shares starting to become extended in the ultra short term. Snapshot as of 10h55 on Thursday 20 March 2025

Trade   MTN Group   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Over a period of 8 months (since 18 July 2024), MTN Group has offered traders opportunities to get long (i.e. buy). This is was driven in part by the price action model readings as well as manual review of the technical structure (falling wedge pattern). Although there may be room for further upside, at current levels, the price action model reading (shown below) points to a less appealing reward-to-risk, with overbought conditions being present. Q: What is the overall trend? A: The overall trend is bullish but with overbought conditions. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: Overbought Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: Very Bullish Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: No, the risk-reward is unattractive. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term sell/short position? A: Potentially, if there is an overshoot or failure to hold prior session range highs. Q: What is the current position & trend for the short term (1 to 10 days)? A: Would not enter long due to unattractive risk-reward, expecting consolidation or minor retracement. Q: What is the current position & trend for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: Aggressive buying but overbought, expecting consolidation or minor retracement. Q: What is the current position & trend for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: Aggressive buying, but do not chase. Look for overshoot or failure to hold prior session range highs to short, aiming to sell back to the 8-EMA. Summary: For the short term (1 to 10 days), the strategy would be to avoid long positions due to the unattractive risk-reward, with the expectation of consolidation or a minor retracement. In the medium term (2 to 4 weeks), despite aggressive buying, the market is overbought, suggesting a strategy of watching for consolidation or a minor retracement. For the long term (5 to 8 weeks), while the trend remains aggressively bullish, the strategy is to avoid chasing the price and instead look for potential overshoot or failure to hold prior session range highs to initiate short positions, aiming to sell back to the 8-EMA. The price action model reading as highlight at 7400c on 18 July 2024. The original post can be accessed at the following link: https://www.unum.capital/post/mtn-group-here-s-what-the-data-says-thursday-18-july-2024 MTN Falling Wedge Structure (27 November). The original post can be accessed at the following link: https://www.unum.capital/post/mtn-group-levels-of-interest-falling-wedge-structure Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Local & Global Financial Instruments   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za The reading is reflecting as follows on the end of day Tactical Trading Guide Recent Real-Time Opportunities YELLOW ARROW = AGGRESSIVE BUYING, DO NOT CHASE SANLAM (SLM) Proof of the time-stamped readings are available on request. KUMBA IRON ORE (KIO) Proof of the time-stamped readings are available on request. ANGLO AMERICAN PLC  (AGL) 5x Real-Time Readings Proof of the time-stamped readings are available on request. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade FX: USD/ZAR  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: Neutral Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: Rangebound Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: Potentially, if the price holds prior session highs after the recent advance from a sideways consolidation. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term sell/short position? A: Yes, if the price fails to hold prior session highs, there's potential for a retracement to retest the range breakout. Q: What is the current position & trend for the short term (1 to 10 days)? A: Attempting a bullish reversal following a consolidation phase. Q: What is the current position & trend for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: Recently advanced from a sideways consolidation. Q: What is the current position & trend for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: Lacking directional bias; looking for a break of range to trigger a directional move. Summary: For the short term (1 to 10 trading days), the USD/ZAR is attempting a bullish reversal following a consolidation phase. A potential buy/long strategy could be considered if the price holds above prior session highs, but a sell/short strategy is viable if it fails to do so, leading to a retracement. In the medium term (2 to 4 weeks), the currency pair has recently advanced from a sideways consolidation, suggesting potential for further upside if the breakout is sustained. For the long term (5 to 8 weeks), the USD/ZAR lacks a clear directional bias, and a trading strategy should focus on identifying a break of the current range to establish a directional position. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital