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  • Trading Platinum Miners

    Trade Platinum Mining Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Price Action Model Readings as of yesterday's close. Anglo American Platinum Impala Platinum Northam Platinum Sibanye Stillwater

  • Trade Better: Considerations For Evaluating Technical Trading Opportunities

    Resource Centre Automated: The analyst's first step is to run the instrument through the price action model (Tactical Trading Guide) to obtain an unbiased assessment of technical position and multiple time frame probability. This can either be live or end of day. At a high level, we also look to determine the following (non-comprehensive): What is the current regime for the given time frame (daily/weekly/monthly chart): overbought, oversold, neutral etc.? The graphic below highlights the various regimes with the interpretation and trading implications.   What was the previous (recent) regime? For example, has it improved from oversold to weak and is now on it's way to neutral? a bullish sequence. Has it deteriorated from overbought to strong and is now on it's way to neutral? - a bearish sequence   What has been the recent candle structure? positive, negative, mixed? Long upper tails (bearish) or long lower tails (bullish)? Who is in control? Buyers or Sellers? Is it opening weak and closing strong, or, is it opening strong and closing weak?   The trend is up/down. Is the momentum slowing? If yes, this could be a sign that a period of consolidation or a reversal is imminent. Alternatively, look for an opportunity to buy on a pullback.   Is the share near short or medium term support/resistance?   Is the share near a key moving average , for example the 8 or 21-day EMA for short term traders, or the 50 & 75-day EMA for medium term traders, or the 200-day SMA for long term investors?   Where is the price distance vs the 8 and 21-day EMA? Is it below or above these levels? How long has it been above or below these levels? Does it appear to be breaking the 8/21-EMA on the upside or downside?   What is the distance vs the 75-day?  Is it trading at an above-average distance above the 75-day? If yes, then the buy/long reward-to-risk may be poor. What is the distance vs the 75-day?  Is it trading at an above-average distance below the 75-day? If yes, then the short/sell reward-to-risk may be poor. What is the distance vs the 21-week? Is it trading at an above-average distance above the 21-week? If yes, then the buy/long reward-to-risk may be poor.   What is the distance vs the 21-week. Is it trading at an below-average distance below the 21-week? If yes, then the buy/long reward-to-risk may be appealing for a mean reversion buy/long trade.   For shares, what are the sector peers doing? Are they weak while this share is strong? Are they strong while this share is weak?   Volume: If you are fortunate to have access to the full market depth, then study the volume patterns. Where are the big buyers/sellers? How quickly are bids/offers being filled?   Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital Traders also have access to the Tactical Trading Guide which can be used to understand the end if technical position.

  • Trading Spot Silver: Analysis of Price Action

    Trade   Silver   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za In the previous note on Silver, our comments were as follows: " The overall trend for Spot Silver is bullish, with both short-term and long-term indicators pointing upwards. However, the 7-day trend shows high bullish momentum approaching overbought conditions, suggesting a potential short-term pullback. The short-term strategy is to be cautious with buying, watch for failures to hold highs, and consider shorting if the price drops below the 8-EMA. The medium-term strategy involves waiting for an overshoot or failure to hold prior session range highs before shorting back to the 8-EMA. The long-term trend remains strongly bullish, indicating continued upward momentum over the next 5 to 8 weeks." The current price action model reading is as follows: Summary: For the short term (1 to 10 days), the strategy suggests that while the trend is upward, it's weakening, potentially offering both buy and sell opportunities around the 8, 21, or 50-day EMA. In the medium term (2 to 4 weeks), the strategy indicates a slowing bullish momentum, with potential buy opportunities on the 8, 21, or 50-day EMA as a rebound. Looking at the long term (5 to 8 weeks), the strategy suggests an upward trend is either in progress or beginning, but also cautions about the potential for failure to hold prior session range highs, which could create a tactical short-sell opportunity. Previous Post: Trading Spot Silver: Analysis of Price Action Q: What is the overall trend? A: The overall trend is bullish. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The current 7-day trend is high bullish momentum, approaching overbought. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The current 14-day trend is very bullish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: The information suggests caution with buying/long positions due to the overbought conditions and potential for failure to hold highs. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term sell/short position? A: Yes, there is a potential short-term sell/short position opportunity if the attempt to hold the highs fails, and the price doesn't hold above the 8-EMA. Q: What is the current position & trend for the short term (1 to 10 days)? A: The short-term position is a very strong move with buyers in control, but it's approaching overbought levels, suggesting potential for a pullback. Q: What is the current position & trend for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: The medium-term position is an aggressive buying trend, but a strategy is to wait for an overshoot or failure to hold prior session range highs to short back to the 8-EMA. Q: What is the current position & trend for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: The long-term position has resumed a bull move in a strong upward trend. The overall trend for Spot Silver is bullish, with both short-term and long-term indicators pointing upwards. However, the 7-day trend shows high bullish momentum approaching overbought conditions, suggesting a potential short-term pullback. The short-term strategy is to be cautious with buying, watch for failures to hold highs, and consider shorting if the price drops below the 8-EMA. The medium-term strategy involves waiting for an overshoot or failure to hold prior session range highs before shorting back to the 8-EMA. The long-term trend remains strongly bullish, indicating continued upward momentum over the next 5 to 8 weeks. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • V-Shaped Recovery: Catch a Falling Share, or Wait?

    Main Points What is a V-Shaped Recovery? Risks To Both Sides of the 'V' Sharp Drops Can Lead To Buying Opportunities Exact Bottom Unknown, But The Reward-To-Risk Is Appealing What if I Missed The Bottom? Stronger 'Readings' Into The Bottom vs The Subsequent Recovery The Data Helps Traders Prepare For Opportunity (Sibanye Stillwater as an example). Being Approximately Right. What is a V-Shaped Recovery? In stock market terms, this translates to a steep drop in stock prices, quickly followed by a significant surge back to previous levels, or even higher. What are we trying to achieve? Buying into a declining share may reflect the traders anticipation of a near-term recovery. Buying at a certain level does not mean that the trader is call that particular point as the exact bottom. What Are The Risks To Buying Early? i.e. Buying As The Price Is Declining - A further decline beyond a trader's pre-determined risk limits - Negative news flows (from the company or within the macro environment) What Are The Risks To Buying After The Bullish Reversal? i.e. Buying As The Price Is Recovering - A pullback/continuation selling pressure. Below, a share chart shows the price having sharply declined, followed by a bullish reversal. This, is a great example of two V-shaped recoveries on one share (Sibanye Stillwater). Does the data we look at support the case for buying into these declines?   In most cases, yes. As noted above, Sibanye Stillwater is a great example of this. Let's looks at the first 'V' back in September 2024. The low exact was on 11 September. On this basis, we look at the two days leading into that, in order to determine whether the readings timeously prepared traders for a buying opportunity. Below the time stamped readings for 09 and 10 September are shown (both short and medium term). The dates, times and readings are marked in red. Now, let's looks at the second 'V' which started back in late February 2025. The low exact was on 28 February. On this basis, we look at the two days leading into that, in order to determine whether the readings timeously prepared traders for a buying opportunity. Below the time stamped readings for 26 and 27 March are shown (both short and medium term) What if I Missed The Bottom? The price action model readings on the 'rising' side of the 'V' often alert traders to a price that is finding buyers or strengthening. In some cases, they are somewhat cautious and tend to wait for further strength to alert to traders to getting involved. For example, on 12 September, SSW rallied by 9% on the day. This is what the price action model reading had to say: " The share is rangebound in a weak regime . A recovery buy/long is triggered on strong bids and a break of the current range high " On 05 March, SSW rallied by 4% on the day. This is what the price action model reading had to say: " Attempting a bullish reversal following a steady downward trend ". The share then went on to rally from around R15 to the recent high of above R20. Conclusion: Timing is very hard, however, it is possible to be approximately right, with minimal downside. The above example highlights how the awareness of a technical position combined with multiple time frame probabilities can lead to profitable outcomes. Trade JSE Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za or lester@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Price Action Commentary: Short & Medium Term

    Trade JSE Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital (Data as of end of day Friday 14 March 2025)

  • Weekly Market Sentiment: Weakness Near An Oversold Range

    Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za See the lower panel on the chart. The indicator is a custom-built sentiment index, designed to assess market risk appetite, including whether sentiment is at an extreme position (i.e. excessively bullish or excessively bearish). Components: Copper: Copper often serves as a proxy for global economic activity. A decline in copper prices could signal slowing economic growth, increasing risk. High Beta vs Low Beta: High beta stocks tend to be more volatile than low beta stocks. A widening spread between high and low beta returns might indicate increased risk aversion. Growth vs Value: Growth stocks typically outperform value stocks in bull markets. A shift towards value stocks could suggest investors are becoming more cautious. EM Currencies: Emerging market currencies can be sensitive to risk appetite. A weakening of EM currencies could signal increased risk aversion. AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar is often used as a proxy for global risk sentiment. A decline in AUD/USD could indicate increased risk aversion. Consumer Staples vs Consumer Discretionary: Consumer staples are generally considered defensive assets. A shift towards consumer staples could suggest investors are seeking safety. Semiconductors vs S&P 500: The semiconductor sector is cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. Underperformance of semiconductors relative to the broader market could signal increased risk. Russell 2000 ETF: This ETF tracks small-cap stocks, which are generally considered riskier than large-cap stocks. Underperformance of the Russell 2000 could suggest increased risk aversion. U.S. Dollar Index (Inverse): A strengthening US Dollar often signals a flight to safety, suggesting increased risk aversion.

  • Momentum-Metropolitan: Running Short Term (+18%) & Long Term (+120%)

    Trade   Momentum-Metropolitan with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Now an +18% Rally Off The Confluence Zone (26 February Note) Also higher by 120% from our (short term) buy idea 01 August 2022. As discussed on the morning of 26 February, the 50-week (as per the model) was support. Both the trading statement for the six months ended 31 December 2024 as well as the subsequent results sparked sharp rallies. Our original buy/long view was at 1489c. On Friday the share reached an all-time high of 3268c. From a medium to long term portfolio perspective, the share has rallied sharply. Over the period (since 01 August 2022), the share has significantly outperformed it's peers. Previous Post: Trading Momentum Metropolitan: 50-Week/200-Day Convergence Previous Post (Wednesday 12 February) Preferred Strategies & Setups To Generate Cash Flow (Click To Enlarge) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Spot Gold: Analysis of Price Action

    Trade   Gold   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Analyst's Disclosure: This price action model was summarized using an A.I tool. Q: What is the overall trend? A: Consolidating in an upward trend. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: High bullish momentum, approaching overbought. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: Very bullish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: Yes, if aggressive buying, wait for pullback to enter next. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term sell/short position? A: Yes, if the 8-EMA is breached. Q: What is the current position & trend for the short term (1 to 10 days)? A: Consolidating in an upward trend. Q: What is the current position & trend for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: Aggressive buying has been in place; wait for pullback to enter next. If highs fail to hold, short back to the 8 or 21-EMA. Q: What is the current position & trend for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: Strong upside move, but momentum slowing with sellers becoming active. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • 6x Shares: Overbought (Daily Time Frame)

    Trade JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • U.S Sector Breadth: What's Leading?

    Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za US Sector Breadth: Sectors % of Constituents Above Their 20-day Moving Averages Energy & Utilities showing clear strength. This is followed by Financials, Healthcare and Industrials Consumer Discretionary is lagging. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Naspers: Next Best Buy Range

    Trade Naspers & Prosus   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Two Charts: (1) highlighting the next best probability buy re-entry range and (2) the most recent buy/sells as per the previous note and model. Short term distribution is underway as reflected in the deteriorating candle structure. A triple top technical formation is noted. It's also worth noting that the price action model reading (tactical trading guide) helped to recognize the poor buy/long reward-to-risk as the price rallied into multi-month highs. At the time (18 February), the time-stamped reading stated the following: "Would not enter a buy/long here. The reward-to-risk is unattractive". Previous Post: Trading Naspers' +R900 Rally (+26%) NPN blasting through levels, adding 26% over 4 weeks , boosted by the Chinese technology sector. The initial view informed by both manual analysis as well as automated readings. As highlighted in this same note (scroll down): "... expect a small rebound ' - *time-stamped price action model reading at the swing lows of 13 January. The price action model (TTG) alerted to the possibility of a small rebound (scroll down to see previous note + time-stamped reading). The share is now higher by 6.4%. Now trading into the next best probability resistance range (see chart). Previous Post (Sunday 26 January): Trading Naspers: Cash Flow For Active Traders (+Price Action Model Reading) On Monday 13 January at 15h08, we highlighted Naspers shares trading in an oversold range relative to the JSE Top 40 Index. Since then, the share has rallied by R159 , generating cash flow for traders who took advantage of the aforementioned oversold conditions. The model reading for the 3x time frames, as of Friday's close, is as follows: Analyst's Price Action Model as of the close on Friday 24 January. Naspers: next best probability short term resistance at the upside overshoot of the declining 21-day EMA. Chart as of the close on Friday 24 January. Previous Post: Relative The Top 40, Naspers Is Trading In A Short Term Oversold Range (Monday 13 January) at 15h08 NPN Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of Monday 15h08 Analyst's price Action Model Reading on Monday 13 January at 15h08 - "Expect a small rebound" Previous Post: Naspers: Well Done, Short Sellers (Tuesday 07 January) Naspers: The share has fallen sharpy, in line with the model reading (published 05 January) which showed that the declining 8/21-EMA could be used as a level into which to initiate short/sell positions. On the back of geopolitical company-related developments (China/military etc.), the share declined by over 9%, reached it's rising 50-week moving average and it's 200-day simple moving average. The candle structure remains poor, with potential for further weakness. For traders looking to re-enter, it would be best to wait until there is stabilization on the lower time frames (1-hour and 4-hour etc.). The pullback is also in line with the Tactical Trading Guide seen at the peak on 02 October (peak), which warned traders that the reward-to-risk was unappealing and that a consolidation and pullback can be expected. See the time-stamped reading below: Previous Post: Naspers Price and Trend Analysis (Sunday, 05 January 2025) Price Action Model with 3x Time Frames AI-Assisted Summary of the above Price Action Model Overall, the price action model suggests a bearish short-term trend with a potential for bullish momentum in the medium and long term. Traders should be cautious in the short term and look for opportunities to sell on rebounds. In the medium and long term, they should look for minor support levels to buy into for a potential rebound. Price Chart With Moving Average Trends Technical Trend Ratings (Monthly, Weekly & Daily) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Naspers: Next Best Buy Range

    Trade Naspers & Prosus   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Naspers | Short term distribution is underway as reflected in the deteriorating candle structure. A triple top technical formation is noted. It's also worth noting that the price action model reading (tactical trading guide) helped to recognize the poor buy/long reward-to-risk as the price rallied into multi-month highs. At the time (18 February), the time-stamped reading stated the following: "Would not enter a buy/long here. The reward-to-risk is unattractive". Previous Post: Trading Naspers' +R900 Rally (+26%) NPN blasting through levels, adding 26% over 4 weeks , boosted by the Chinese technology sector. The initial view informed by both manual analysis as well as automated readings. As highlighted in this same note (scroll down): "... expect a small rebound ' - *time-stamped price action model reading at the swing lows of 13 January. The price action model (TTG) alerted to the possibility of a small rebound (scroll down to see previous note + time-stamped reading). The share is now higher by 6.4%. Now trading into the next best probability resistance range (see chart). Previous Post (Sunday 26 January): Trading Naspers: Cash Flow For Active Traders (+Price Action Model Reading) On Monday 13 January at 15h08, we highlighted Naspers shares trading in an oversold range relative to the JSE Top 40 Index. Since then, the share has rallied by R159 , generating cash flow for traders who took advantage of the aforementioned oversold conditions. The model reading for the 3x time frames, as of Friday's close, is as follows: Analyst's Price Action Model as of the close on Friday 24 January. Naspers: next best probability short term resistance at the upside overshoot of the declining 21-day EMA. Chart as of the close on Friday 24 January. Previous Post: Relative The Top 40, Naspers Is Trading In A Short Term Oversold Range (Monday 13 January) at 15h08 NPN Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of Monday 15h08 Analyst's price Action Model Reading on Monday 13 January at 15h08 - "Expect a small rebound" Previous Post: Naspers: Well Done, Short Sellers (Tuesday 07 January) Naspers: The share has fallen sharpy, in line with the model reading (published 05 January) which showed that the declining 8/21-EMA could be used as a level into which to initiate short/sell positions. On the back of geopolitical company-related developments (China/military etc.), the share declined by over 9%, reached it's rising 50-week moving average and it's 200-day simple moving average. The candle structure remains poor, with potential for further weakness. For traders looking to re-enter, it would be best to wait until there is stabilization on the lower time frames (1-hour and 4-hour etc.). The pullback is also in line with the Tactical Trading Guide seen at the peak on 02 October (peak), which warned traders that the reward-to-risk was unappealing and that a consolidation and pullback can be expected. See the time-stamped reading below: Previous Post: Naspers Price and Trend Analysis (Sunday, 05 January 2025) Price Action Model with 3x Time Frames AI-Assisted Summary of the above Price Action Model Overall, the price action model suggests a bearish short-term trend with a potential for bullish momentum in the medium and long term. Traders should be cautious in the short term and look for opportunities to sell on rebounds. In the medium and long term, they should look for minor support levels to buy into for a potential rebound. Price Chart With Moving Average Trends Technical Trend Ratings (Monthly, Weekly & Daily) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

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