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- Foschini | Woolworths | Mr. Price
Trade JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Readings are subject to change as the price action develops. For clients trading TFG, MRP and WHL Based on the price action model reading, TFG is currently experiencing weakness across all time frames. The 7-day trend is weak, and the 14-day trend is very bearish, indicating strong downward momentum. For the short term (1 to 10 days), the strategy is to wait for the trend to stabilize on a lower time frame before considering any positions. In the medium term (2 to 4 weeks), there is very aggressive selling, and the recommended strategy is to wait for the downward momentum to slow before considering buying or to phase in buying gradually. For the long term (5 to 8 weeks), TFG is weak within a sideways consolidation. Overall, the model suggests caution and a strategy of waiting for signs of stabilization or reversal before taking any significant positions. The overall trend for WHL is bearish, with both the 7-day and 14-day trends indicating weakness and bearishness respectively. For the short term, the position is very weak, and the strategy is to wait for stabilization on the lower time frame. In the medium term, the position reflects very aggressive selling, and the recommended strategy is to wait for downward momentum to slow or phase in buying. Looking further ahead to the long term, aggressive selling persists, and the strategy is to wait for stabilization on lower time frames. For MRP, the market is currently experiencing a bearish trend across short, medium, and long-term timeframes. In the immediate 7-day period, high bearish momentum is observed, approaching oversold conditions. Despite this, the 14-day trend suggests a potential short-term buying opportunity due to an increasingly favorable reward-to-risk ratio. Over the trailing 2 to 4 weeks, aggressive has been underway. Here, traders should focus on waiting for lower time frames to stabilize before taking action. The trailing 5 to 8 weeks has seen aggressive selling pressure. Traders should monitor prices near support and prior swing lows to capitalize on minor rebounds within the broader medium term downward trend. Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Standard Bank: Summary of Full Year Results
Trade Standard Bank with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Analyst's Disclosure: This summary was compiled using an A.I tool. Overall Performance: Standard Bank Group reported headline earnings of R45 billion for 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) of 18.5%. This demonstrates solid growth and profitability across their banking, insurance, and asset management divisions. Strategic Progress: The group confirmed they are on track to meet their 2025 strategic goals and targets, indicating successful execution of their planned initiatives. Client Growth: The bank saw a 4% increase in active clients, reaching 20 million, primarily driven by growth in South Africa. Digital adoption also increased, with a 6% rise in digitally active retail clients in South Africa. Regional Contributions: The South African franchise experienced double-digit earnings growth, while the Africa Regions division contributed 41% to the group's headline earnings, despite currency headwinds. Africa Regions Performance: The Africa Regions portfolio, despite currency challenges, showed strong underlying growth, with a 22% increase in local currency earnings and a ROE exceeding 28%. Key contributors included Angola, Ghana, Kenya, and Nigeria. Capital and Dividends: Standard Bank maintained a strong capital position with a common equity tier 1 ratio of 13.5%. The board declared a final dividend of 763 cents per share, bringing the total annual dividend to 1,507 cents per share, a 6% increase. Sustainable Finance: The group is progressing well towards its sustainable finance mobilization target, having already mobilized over R177 billion since 2022, with R74 billion added in 2024. Global Economic Context: In 2024, global inflation moderated, interest rates declined, and global GDP showed moderate growth. However, regional variations persisted. Sub-Saharan Africa Environment: Sub-Saharan Africa saw varying economic conditions. While inflation trended down, it remained high. Interest rates were also elevated, particularly in West Africa, where currency weakness was prevalent. South African Economic Conditions: South Africa experienced improved consumer and business confidence following the general elections and the formation of the Government of National Unity. Inflation moderated, and interest rates were reduced, supporting economic stability. South African GDP: South Africa's real GDP growth was 0.6% for 2024, following a decline in the third quarter. Global Economic Outlook: The IMF forecasts continued global GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, driven by moderating inflation and normalized monetary policy. Africa Regional Outlook: Economic headwinds are expected to ease in Standard Bank's Africa Regions portfolio in 2025, with more stable currencies and improved economic performance. South African Economic Forecast: South Africa's inflation is expected to remain within the target band, and interest rates are projected to decline further. GDP growth is anticipated to improve in 2025 and 2026. 2025 Targets: Standard Bank is focused on achieving its 2025 targets, including mid-to-high single-digit banking revenue growth, a marginally declining cost-to-income ratio, and a group ROE within the 17% to 20% range. Post-2025 Strategy: Looking beyond 2025, the group aims to capitalize on Africa's development opportunities. They will focus on core business growth and strategic expansion in areas like energy, infrastructure, and private banking. Medium-Term Targets (2026-2028): Standard Bank has set new medium-term targets, including headline earnings per share growth of 8% to 12% and a ROE target range of 18% to 22%. Dividend Declarations: The board declared final dividends for ordinary and preference shares. Ordinary shareholders will receive 763 cents per share, and preference shareholders will receive varying amounts based on their share type. Dividend Payment Details: The report provides detailed information on the last trading dates, ex-dividend dates, record dates, and payment dates for the declared dividends, including specifics for the different share types. Tax Implications and Share Capital: The report outlines the tax implications of the dividends and provides information on the company's issued share capital, including the number and par value of ordinary and preference shares. Previous Post: Getting Paid: For Active Traders, Standard Bank Delivers On The Long & Short Side Standard Bank tested it's 200-day SMA, rebounded, and is now looking to break below this level again. We are going to have to see the price stabilize before considering a new buy long position. The move lower over the last few months is in line with our 15 August view: " Caution To New Longs" as well as our alert (12 November: Channel Check) which warned around a change of trend from neutral to bearish. Original Posts: Caution to New Longs > https://www.unum.capital/post/standard-bank-trading-at-multi-month-highs-here-s-what-the-data-says-thursday-15-august-2024 Channel Check (12-Nov) > https://www.unum.capital/post/channel-check-standard-bank SBK Daily Chart at Friday's close: SBK Model reading as of Friday's close: Previous Post: STANDARD BANK: Caution To New Longs - Thursday, 15 August 2024 Ticker: SBK Real-Time: 15h50 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Consumer Staples: Using Sectors Interpret Market Risk
Access Global Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za On 11 February our research focused on the early strength in U.S. Consumer Staples with the comment being as follows: "Relative strength in consumer staples may be an early signal that investors are rotating into low volatility names and out of high beta names. This is generally seen as a negative for the broader market." Previous Post (11 February): Worth Noting: Early Strength In Consumer Staples Relative strength in consumer staples may be an early signal that investors are rotating into low volatility names and out of high beta names. This is generally seen as a negative for the broader market. Tonight's sector performance: Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- U.S Sector Breadth: What's Leading?
Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za US Sector Breadth: Sectors % of Constituents Above Their 20-day Moving Averages A defensive posture, with Consumer Staples, Healthcare and Utilities holding up the best. Graphic as of Thursday 13 March at 06h41 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- U.S. Indices: Monthly MACD Developments
#EarlyAccess Trade the U.S. INDICES with Unum Capital To get started, email lester@unum.co.za It's worth noting that all 3 indices have a pending bearish MACD crossover as per their monthly charts. Monthly Timeframe Significance: Using a monthly timeframe means these signals are long-term. Therefore, a bearish signal on a monthly chart can indicate a potentially significant and prolonged downtrend. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) DJIA Monthly Chart as of Thursday, 13 March 06h16 S&P 500 Index (US500) US500 Monthly Chart as of Thursday, 13 March 06h14 Nasdaq 100 Index (US100) US100 Monthly Chart as of Thursday, 13 March at 06h17 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Market Risk Index: Monthly Time Frame = Weak
#EarlyAccess Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za *Monthly Time Frame* The indicator is a custom-built risk and sentiment index, designed to assess market risk appetite, including whether sentiment is at an extreme position (i.e. excessively bullish or excessively bearish). Components: Copper: Copper often serves as a proxy for global economic activity. A decline in copper prices could signal slowing economic growth, increasing risk. High Beta vs Low Beta: High beta stocks tend to be more volatile than low beta stocks. A widening spread between high and low beta returns might indicate increased risk aversion. Growth vs Value: Growth stocks typically outperform value stocks in bull markets. A shift towards value stocks could suggest investors are becoming more cautious. EM Currencies: Emerging market currencies can be sensitive to risk appetite. A weakening of EM currencies could signal increased risk aversion. AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar is often used as a proxy for global risk sentiment. A decline in AUD/USD could indicate increased risk aversion. Consumer Staples vs Consumer Discretionary: Consumer staples are generally considered defensive assets. A shift towards consumer staples could suggest investors are seeking safety. Semiconductors vs S&P 500: The semiconductor sector is cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. Underperformance of semiconductors relative to the broader market could signal increased risk. Russell 2000 ETF: This ETF tracks small-cap stocks, which are generally considered riskier than large-cap stocks. Underperformance of the Russell 2000 could suggest increased risk aversion. U.S. Dollar Index (Inverse): A strengthening US Dollar often signals a flight to safety, suggesting increased risk aversion.
- Short & Medium Term Traders, This Guide Helps
Trade JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital (Data as of end of day Wednesday 12 March 2025)
- ETF Screen: Strong Near Their Lows
Access Global ETFs with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital Published: 12 March 2025, 21h58
- Trading MTN Group: Generating Cash (900 to 1100c)
Trade MTN Group with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Generating cash for short term traders on the short/sell side. Trading into the resistance range and in line with the price action model reading (scroll down to view the real-time reading (as of Monday 27 January at 15h48) Pulling back from above R122 to R109.25 at today's low. Over the 7 months, This stock has come a loooonngggg way from R74 to R118. Clients were alerted around the July lows, with the price action model paying a role in identifying opportunity: https://www.unum.capital/post/mtn-group-here-s-what-the-data-says-thursday-18-july-2024 A bullish medium term trend but there are always short term opportunities! Previous Post (27 January): Trading MTN Group: Upward Momentum Slowing + Poor Buy/Long Reward-To-Risk Previous Post: Strategy Alert: MTN Group (Thursday 23 January) MTN Daily Chart as of Thursday 23 January at 15h29 Previous Post: MTN Group +R25 Rally / Now Short Term Overbought / Updated Model Reading Analyst Price Action Model as of Tuesday 21 January at 09h15 Model Summary: The MTN GROUP stock is currently in a bullish trend, but the 7-day trend is overbought. Traders are advised to not chase the price and look for opportunities to short-sell if the price fails to hold key levels. The medium-term outlook is also bullish with aggressive buying, but caution is advised against chasing the price. The long-term outlook is bullish with a strong attempt at a bullish reversal. Current 7-Day Trend: Overbought. Current 14-Day Trend: Bullish. Short-Term Buy/Long Position Opportunity? No. Do not chase the price. If the price fails to hold the highs, the 8-EMA may be a short-sell target. Medium-Term Outlook (2 to 4 Weeks): The medium-term outlook is aggressive buying but do not chase. Look for an opportunity to short-sell if the price fails to hold prior session range highs back to the 8-EMA. Long-Term Outlook (5 to 8 Weeks): The long-term outlook is bullish. There is a strong attempt at a bullish reversal following a consolidation phase. Previous Post: Wednesday 27 November 2024 (15h24) MTN GROUP R10 Lower + New Levels of Interest + Falling Wedge Structure The share us R10 lower, with the model having alerted traders to monitor for a failure to hold the highs. Take note of this falling wedge structure on the share Previous Post: 18 September (Real-Time: 13h49) Ticker: MTN Technical Condition and Price Action Probability Daily Chart Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Truworths: A Temporary Detractor
Trade Truworths with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za I want all my ideas to see a positive outcome, so naturally I am disappointed that the share has not moved as anticipated. For now, TRU is out of the money, but has not breached the stop-loss level. As mentioned in the original note: " I do not think that THIS is the exact low (i.e. I am expecting lower levels) however, this may be a RANGE to starting building a buy/long position with the expectation that a base starts to form over the near term followed by a potential bullish reversal." The chart below is CURRENT. Scroll down for the original post as well as other previous posts. If you are uncomfortable being temporarily out of the money, you should consider exiting the trade. Adding TRU as a trade idea. Text on the image below: HIGH RISK BUY IDEA therefore small-than-average position sizes may apply. The share has been sold off aggressively and is in a oversold regime. I do not think that THIS is the exact low (i.e. I am expecting lower levels) however, this may be a RANGE to starting building a buy/long position with the expectation that a base starts to form over the near term followed by a potential bullish reversal. Buy at current levels or lower (traders could consider starting with a 1/3 of the position). As always, traders could consider the following if/when the prices approaches the target: bank/take profit, partially scale out, adjust the stop-loss to protect profits. Note: Event risk in the form of earnings are expected on 27 February. Time stop: 11 July 2025. Trading Levels: Entry: 7991c or better Target: 9200c Stop-loss: 7345c Previous Post (Sunday 09 February): Trading Truworths: Strategy Alert TRU is trading 15% below it's 75-day exponential moving average. These extension levels have often coincided with range to add to initiate a long position or cover short/sell positions. Previous Post: Trading Truworths: Approaching Oversold / Consider Covering Short Positions In September, our research alerted to a poor buy/long reward-to-risk for the sector risk. The share is now trading in a high bearish momentum regime while approaching oversold. Previous Post: (28 January): Trading Truworths September 2024 Reference + Current Chart Below Previous Post: Retailers: Selling Off In Line With The Model Readings This is the 2nd update on the original post. For the previous posts, please scroll down. In the original post, I highlighted the real-time reading from the Tactical Trading Guide. It alerted clients about a poor reward-to-risk on the buy/long side . Since then, performance has been as follows: TFG down from R158 to R146 (recent low) TRU down from R109 to R98 (recent low) MRP rallied to 272 then traded down to 253 (recent low) CLS was at R399, then sold off sharply down to R360. SHP (see insert below) was a setup which clients were well prepared for . The idea was to look for a print ABOVE R314, followed by a pullback. The price traded above R314 and retreated to reach a low of R278 during yesterday's trading session. Well done to clients who have been correctly positioned to take advantage of these moves. Previous Post: Retailers: Unwinding From Overbought Thursday, 03 October 2024 Time Published: 12h29 The Tactical Trading Guide has been very useful in assessing reward-to-risk. The model has given traders timeous readings helping to prepare for opportunity. To add, CLS Clicks is acting in line with the model, which alerted traders that sellers were becoming active. Note the reading at the end of day on 25 September. Previous Post: " Retailers Have Rallied. Here's What The Data Says - Monday, 23 September 2024" Pre-Market A global rate cutting cycle including action from the SARB has support strong moves in retail shares. In addition, early positive signs in the local economy has boosted confidence which has led to analyst upgrades. This is especially relevant in the Consumer Discretionary sector which may feel the effect of improved consumer spend. While the fundamentals are positive and, after a strong rally, the short term reward-to-risk does not appear appealing for new buy/long trades. For Consumer Discretionary shares, this is what the data says: MRP Mr. Price TFG Foschini TRU Truworths Clients of Unum Capital have had access to research which has flagged opportunities across in selected names. TRU, discussed at R56, has nearly doubled in price over 14 months. Truworths - as discussed in the report (Active Trading Plan, Monday 03 July 2023) Then at R56 - now nearly R110. Not a client yet? Get in touch today. ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis for any tradeable instrument across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. The tool helps to determine and shed light on the some of the following: Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position? Whether a share is weak or if aggressive buying is underway Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading Growthpoint Properties
Trade Growthpoint Properties with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za Sharp Bullish Reversal | +11% Rally Aligning With The Price Action Model. Scroll down for the previous posts (all time-stamped) Recently, GRT produced 3x readings which alerted traders to buy/long opportunity. The most recent, time-stamped as always.... Get In. Get Out. Get Paid. Opportunity Number 1 Opportunity Number 2 Opportunity Number 3 Previous Post: GROWTHPOINT PROPERTIES Pullback On Tactical Triggers - Wednesday, 11 September 2024 The Tactical Trading Guide is useful IN assessing reward-to-risk. GRT is an example of such: The TTG as per Friday's close: Short Term Medium Term Long Term Previous Post SHORT TERM TRADERS CAN BANK / TAKE PROFIT ON THIS IDEA Pre-Market Notes on Slide Previous Post (Friday 12 July) Scanning for opportunities in the U.S last night, the real estate sector stood out as a theme, with several ETFs being reflected on my screeners. Screener as of 21h30, Thursday 11 July Considering local opportunities, GRT is a setting up as a potential continuation trade. The share is developing pennant formation which is triggered above 1247c, with a target of 1302c. The setup is temporarily invalidated on a daily close below 1216c. GRT chart after Thursday's close. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading U.S. Indices: S&P 500 | Dow Jones | Nasdaq | Russell 2000
Trade Global Indices with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Analysis of the four major indices: S&P 500 Dow Jones Industrial Average Nasdaq 100 Russell 2000 (Small Caps) S&P 500 Index / US 500 No readings across the 3 time frames however, it does reflect an oversold regime, with the 14-day trend being very bearish. Selling pressure continues to be aggressive therefore prices can remain under pressure for long than anticipated. Look for the lower time frames (1H, 2H and 4H) to improve/stabilize. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) / US30 Q: What is the overall trend for Dow Jones Industrial Average? A: The overall trend is bearish (downward). 1 This is evident across all time frames (short, medium, and long term) Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The 7-day trend is High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The 14-day trend is Very Bearish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: Potentially, with caution. The analysis suggests waiting for the "downward momentum to slow" or to "phase in buying." This indicates the possibility of a short-term bounce or reversal, but it's not a strong buy signal yet. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term sell/short position? A: Not explicitly recommended. The analysis focuses on the potential for a slowing of the bearish momentum, suggesting that the strongest part of the sell-off may be over. Q: What is the current position & trend for the short term (1 to 10 days)? A: Very Aggressive Selling. The analysis recommends waiting for the downward momentum to slow before buying or phasing in buying. Q: What is the current position & trend for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: Aggressive Selling. The analysis suggests waiting for lower time frames to stabilize before considering any buying. Q: What is the current position & trend for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: Aggressive Selling Following A Steady Upward Trend. The analysis is looking for support at prior swing lows to capture minor rebounds, implying a continuation of the downtrend with potential temporary bounces. In summary: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is experiencing a strong bearish trend across all time frames. The analysis suggests caution for buyers and recommends waiting for signs of stabilization or a slowing of the downward momentum before considering long positions. There may be opportunities for short-term rebounds, but these should be approached with care and confirmation of a trend reversal. The overall outlook remains bearish. Nasdaq 100 Index (US100) Q: What is the overall trend for Nasdaq 100? A: The overall trend is bearish or negative, as indicated by the "High Bearish Momentum" and "Very Bearish" signals in the short term, and the "Aggressive Selling" in the long term. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The current 7-day trend is High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The current 14-day trend is Very Bearish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: There might be a potential opportunity for a short-term buy/long position, but it's risky. The "Approaching Oversold" condition in the 7-day trend suggests a possible bounce, but the "Very Weak" signal and the "Very Bearish" 14-day trend indicate strong downward pressure. The strategy would be to "Wait Until It Stabilizes On The Lower Time Frame" before considering any long positions. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term sell/short position? A: There is a strong opportunity for a short-term sell/short position provided the index fails shows deteriorating candle structure or overbought conditions on any short term rally. The "Very Weak" and "Very Bearish" signals indicate continued downward momentum. Q: What is the current position & trend for the short term (1 to 10 days)? A: The current position and trend for the short term (1 to 10 days) is Very Weak. The advice is to "Wait Until It Stabilizes On The Lower Time Frame". Q: What is the current position & trend for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: The current position and trend for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks) is Persistently Weak. The advice is to "Monitor Lower Times For Rebound Potential". Q: What is the current position & trend for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: The current position and trend for the long term (5 to 8 weeks) is Aggressive Selling Following A Steady Upward Trend. The strategy would be to "Look For Support At Prior Swing Lows To Capture Minor Rebounds". In summary: The Nasdaq 100 is experiencing a strong bearish trend across all time frames. The short-term is showing signs of being oversold, but the overall momentum is still downwards. Shorting opportunities are present, but any long positions should be approached with extreme caution and only after confirming stabilization on lower time frames. The medium and long-term trends suggest continued weakness, with potential for minor rebounds at support levels. Russell 2000 Index (Small Caps) Q: What is the overall trend for RUSSELL 2000 INDEX? A: The overall trend for the Russell 2000 Index is bearish, with indications of continued weakness but potential for a small rebound. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The current 7-day trend is high bearish momentum and approaching oversold. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The current 14-day trend is very bearish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: The short-term analysis suggests the market is approaching oversold, which could present a potential opportunity for a short-term buy/long position. However, this should be approached cautiously due to the overall bearish momentum. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term sell/short position? A: For now, this opportunity has passed, given the bearish 14-day trend and high bearish momentum in the 7-day trend, a rebound is more likely, especially if the oversold condition is reached with strong candle structure on the lower time frames. Q: What is the current position & trend for the short term (1 to 10 days)? A: The current position for the short term is bearish, with high bearish momentum and approaching oversold conditions. The trend is weak but showing signs of potential for a small rebound. Q: What is the current position & trend for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: The current position for the medium term is persistently weak, but there's a need to monitor for potential lower times for a rebound. The trend is bearish but with potential signs of a reversal. Q: What is the current position & trend for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: The current position for the long term is weak, with selling pressure. However, there's a probability of a small rebound. The trend is bearish but with signs of a potential recovery. In summary: The Russell 2000 Index is currently in a bearish trend across all time frames (short, medium, and long term). The short-term analysis indicates the index is approaching oversold territory, which could lead to a temporary rebound. However, the overall bearish momentum suggests that any rebound might be short-lived. Traders should exercise caution and consider both potential short-term buy/long and sell/short opportunities, keeping in mind the prevailing bearish sentiment. Previous Post: Our Research, Your Opportunity: S&P 500 Index Model Unfolding Snapshot as of 20h47 (Monday 10 March) An 8% pullback off the price action model reading in 05 December. As per the model reading at the time: (1) " Possible bearish reversal, following a very bullish move " and (2) " Aggressive Buying But Overbought On The Lower Time Frame - Expect a consolidation or Minor Retracement ". Previous Post On 05 December we discussed the index, highlighting the risk of a medium term retracement as well as the live reading from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Model) which was as follows: (2 to 4 week time frame): "a possible bearish reversal following a very bullish move" and (5 to 8 week time frame): Aggressive buying underway, but overbought on the lower time frame. Expect a consolidation or a minor retracement". Our analysis coincided with the medium term top as the index retreated from 6098 to 5768 (-330 points or -5%). This was followed by a rebound however, the index has struggled to clear over the overhead resistance range and maintain it's position above 6098 for a sustained period. Over the course of this week, we saw broad-based selling pressure, with the index at multi-week lows. The only two sectors which saw safe-haven buying were Consumer Staples and Utilities, both of which have featured strongly on our screens prior to the note and which we published as buy candidates. Links as follows: https://www.unum.capital/post/iyk-etf + https://www.unum.capital/post/jxi-etf S&P 500 Index Chart (Current) Previous Post: S&P 500 Index: Risk of a Medium Term Retracement Thursday 05 December 2024 (Time: 21h49) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital












