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- Price Action Analysis: Nvidia Corp
Trade Nvidia with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Q: What is the overall trend for NVDA? A: The overall trend, looking at the long-term perspective (5 to 8 weeks), has been upward. However, it's noted that the trend has turned weaker. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The 7-day trend is weak. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The 14-day trend is bearish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: No. The short-term price action reading suggests to "Wait Until It Stabilizes On The Lower Time Frame". This indicates significant weakness and a lack of clear direction for a short-term trade. Q: What is the outlook for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: The medium-term outlook is also weak. The model states to "Wait Until It Stabilizes On The Lower Time Frame", mirroring the short-term view. Q: What is the outlook for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: The long-term outlook remains upward, but with a caution. The report suggests that "Use Rebounds Into The 8, 21 or 50-EMA As A Potential Sell Short Range". This implies that while the long-term trend is still up, there's potential for pullbacks or corrections that could be used for short-selling opportunities. In summary: NVDA shows weakness in the short and medium term, with both the 7-day and 14-day trends indicating bearish sentiment. The long-term trend is still upward, but it has weakened, and potential pullbacks should be considered for short-selling rather than buying. The key takeaway is to wait for stabilization on lower time frames before considering any trades. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Price Action Analysis: Impala Platinum
Trade Impala Platinum with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Q: What is the current 7-day trend? The 7-day trend is Overbought. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? The 14-day trend is Very Bullish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? The short-term price action reading is: Aggressive Buying But Overbought On Lower Time Frame-Expect Consolidation or Minor Retracement. This suggests that while there's buying pressure, it might be too late to enter a long position. It's advisable to wait for a consolidation or pullback. Q: What is the outlook for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? The medium-term outlook is: Aggressive Buying But Do Not Chase-Look For Overshoot or Failure To Hold Prior Session Range Highs To Short-Sell Back To The 8-EMA. This indicates a potential for short-selling opportunities if the price overshoots or fails to maintain its highs. Q: What is the outlook for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? The long-term outlook is: Strong Attempt At A Bullish Reversal Following A Consolidation Phase. This suggests a potentially positive long-term trend after a period of consolidation. In summary: The image indicates a mixed picture for IMP. While the 14-day trend is strongly bullish and the long-term outlook is positive, the short-term is overbought. Traders should be cautious in the short-term and look for pullbacks or consolidation before considering new long positions. The long-term outlook appears more promising, but traders should monitor the short-term developments for potential pullbacks to key support levels. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading Dis-Chem Pharmacies: Actionable Areas
Trade Dis-Chem Pharmacies with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za We discussed DCP on 07 January as part of a note where the 200-day SMA was a focus. A bearish divergence was highlighted and we have since seen the share decline from 3720 to Friday's low of 3233, a decline of 13%. Running the price action model, there are some early triggers that suggest the share is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position. We combine this with a manual view of actionable areas which can be found further down this page. DCP Actionable Areas Previous Post (07 January): WORTH NOTING: 200-Day Developments (Tiger Brands, Outsurance, Mr. Price & More) I used Artificial Intelligence to provide an explanation on why the 200-day SMA is significant. Here's what it had to say: The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is a widely used technical indicator in trading. It calculates the average closing price of an asset over the past 200 trading days, providing a smoothed representation of price movements. This smoothing effect helps traders identify longer-term trends amidst daily price fluctuations. Key Developments and Implications: Support and Resistance: When the price of an asset is above the 200-day SMA, it often acts as a support level. Conversely, when the price is below the 200-day SMA, it can act as resistance. Trend Confirmation: A sustained move above the 200-day SMA can signal a bullish trend, while a sustained move below it can indicate a bearish trend. Crossovers: Crossovers between the price and the 200-day SMA can generate trading signals. For example, a price crossing above the 200-day SMA might be interpreted as a bullish signal, while a cross below could be seen as bearish. Time Frame: The 200-day SMA is a long-term indicator, typically used to analyze trends over several months or even years. In Summary: The 200-day SMA is a valuable tool for traders and investors to: Identify long-term trends Determine support and resistance levels Generate trading signals Assess the overall market sentiment By understanding the 200-day SMA and its implications, traders can make more informed decisions about their investment strategies. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- European Equities: Here Comes The Crowd...
Trade Global ETFs & Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Well done to clients who have been positioned for a resurgence of European Equities. We made our case for European equities on 26 September, citing an undemanding valuation near it's all-time highs. Despite trading near-time highs at the time, the relative performance (vs US equities) was muted for a number of year. Opening an email this week, I just had to smile looking at the headline below: Previous Post: European Equities: Inexpensive Near All-Time Highs Thursday, 26 September 2024 at 21h12 ETF: iShares Europe Ticker: IEV Trading at 52-week highs, but remains relatively inexpensive Current Price = $58.78 Medium term target = $68 The setup is invalidated below 54.00 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Global Ideas: Colgate-Palmolive Co.
Access Global Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Strong candle structure following a re-test of the previous breakout level. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- OUTsurance (-8% Weekly Move): Using Distance To Recognize Risk
#EarlyAccess Trade OUTsurance with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Last week we highlighted OUT trading 95% above it's 200-week SMA, which appeared extended. commentary is marked below and the original post is further down on this page. Previous Post (Friday 28 February): Now Above R70 (and 46% Higher), Don't Missed The Next Trade OUTsurance: Trading +95% Above It's 200-Week SMA (Technically Extended Range) OUT is trading at 95% above it's 200-week SMA. This appears technically extended. The share exceed our previous buy/long target (from 4780c to the recent high above 7000c (+46%) - reached in December 2024. To view the original chart at 4780c, as published to clients of Unum Capital scroll down to the chart at the bottom of this page. Tuesday 19 November 2024 (Time: Pre-Market) Previous Post: 17 September 2024 Real-Time: 09h40 Previous Post Real-Time: 09h41 Ticker: OUT High Bullish Momentum Regime Approaching Measured Move Target Reduce Into Strength Original view, as published to clients Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Generating Cash: African Rainbow Minerals Rallies 19% and Prints Above R157
#EarlyAccess Trade African Rainbow Minerals with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Discussed a few days ago (Wednesday 26-Feb) at 13390c. Of course, it wasn't the exact low and clients had an even better opportunity to buy as low as ~12800c. As of Friday it printed +15700c Get Out. Get Out. Get Paid! It's also worth noting the time-stamped model reading on the same day (end of day 26 February), identifying the attractive technical position. Previous Post (Wednesday 26 February): Trading African Rainbow Minerals: Live Model Reading (Oversold/Attractive) As the price continues to get sold off aggressively, this model reading might be worth noting. Previous Post (Tuesday, 25 February End of Day): My comment a few days ago above R167 was: "short term traders, consider taking profits. It's R140 now!" Previous Post Running +9%. Edit: Closed the day very strong & now running +10% ARI Daily Chart as of end of day. If you are an ultra short term trader, then a move of this size could be an opportunity bank/take profit, however, for medium term traders, we could be in the early stages of a bigger move. Also moving perfectly in line with the price action model reading (scrolls down to view). Previous Post (Sunday, 12 January for Monday 13 January): African Rainbow Minerals: Breaking Out On A Relative Basis (Bullish Setup) African Rainbow Minerals Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index African Rainbow Minerals (ARI) Analyst's Price Action Model The 7-day trend is strong, and the 14-day trend is rangebound. Q: What is the overall trend for African Rainbow Minerals in the short term (1 to 10 trading days)? A: attempting a bullish reversal following a consolidation phase. This suggests a potential upward move in the short term. Q: What is the medium-term trend (2 to 4 weeks) for African Rainbow Minerals? A: The medium-term trend is attempting a rebound following a downward trend. This indicates a potential upward movement, but it may consolidate further before continuing higher. Q: What is the long-term trend (5 to 8 weeks) for African Rainbow Minerals? A: The long-term trend is range-bound in a weak regime. A recovery buy or long position is triggered on strong bids and a break of the current range high. This suggests a potential upward move, but it may be range-bound for a while. Q: What are the key takeaways from this price action analysis? A: The short-term trend is bullish, suggesting a potential upward move. The medium-term trend is attempting a rebound, but may consolidate further before continuing higher. The long-term trend is range-bound, but a recovery buy or long position is triggered on strong bids and a break of the current range high. Q: What are some potential strategies for trading African Rainbow Minerals based on this analysis? A: Short-term traders: May look to buy on dips or breakouts in the short term, as the trend is bullish. Medium-term traders: May look to buy on a break of the current resistance level, as the medium-term trend is attempting a rebound. Long-term traders: May look to buy on strong bids and a break of the current range high, as the long-term trend is range-bound. Previous Post: African Rainbow Minerals: A +29% Rally; Now Short Term Overbought Wednesday, 02 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market (06h11) Ticker: ARI Significant rally off the swing lows of R155 to a high R201.98 during yesterday's session. Short term traders, take profit or trim some of your position. Previous Post: Wednesday, 13 September 2024. 11h55 The share has now rallied by R37, with a high of R192.64 today. Short term/active traders will use these advances to reduce exposure and potentially re-enter at lower levels. The high was also into my actionable trading zone (sell/reduce), pulling back to R187 on an intraday basis. Scroll down to see the previous (+original) posts which were communicated to clients of Unum Capital. The chart is 'current' Previous Post: 13 September 2024 Update / Pre-Market Ticker: ARI Previous Post: 12 September Real-Time: 10h21 Ticker: ARI The share has found support at the previous swing low and is rebounding from deeply oversold conditions. This setup was discussed on Monday, 02 September. The chart is 'current' Pre-Market Ticker: ARI As per my report on Monday, 02 September (Active Trading Plan), the share is approaching key levels i.e. the previous breakout range and the previous swing lows. Also note the following, yesterday we saw a 'doji' candle being printed, which may be early clues of a slowdown in downward momentum. Note: Event risk in the form of earnings at present (Friday, 06 September). The slide from my report is shown below. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Getting (or Staying) Rich With Richemont
#EarlyAccess Trade Richemont with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za On Wednesday 03 February we discussed Richemont, highlighting the price action model's unfavorable reward-to-risk on the buy/long side. Bear in mind, this has been a massive winner since our note on 26 November, alerting traders to monitor for a change of trend to go from neutral to bullish. To recap the 2 to 4 week reading ('do not enter a buy/long at current levels. the reward-to-risk is unattractive') while the 5 to 8 week reading stated ('aggressive buying is underway however the share is overbought on the lower time frame. expect a consolidation or a minor retracement'). At the recent peak (03 March), the price action model was prescient in identifying the overbought conditions and potential for a pullback. Over the last two sessions, the share has been under significant selling pressure. Well done to traders who may have capitalized on both the long and (then) short side. Previous Post (Wednesday 05 February) Trading Richemont: Model Reading Points To Unfavorable Reward-To-Risk CFR Daily Chart as of Wednesday 05 February at 08h52 Previous Post: Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index, The Share Is Approaching Overbought The chart below highlights the relative/ratio charts price distance versus it's medium term 75-day EMA. Previous Post: Richemont: Sharp Bullish Reversal, In Line With Trading Comment & Model Reading The comment below is an extract from our note on Richemont, dated 26 November 2024. "While it the trend is down and the fundamental outlook is bearish, it may be worthwhile to keep an open mind for a potential change of trend following this multi-month consolidation" - Lester Davids, 26-Nov-2024. The chart below highlights the share price development since: CFR chart as of Thursday 16 January at 09h16 You may also recall the end of day model reading (26-Nov) stating the following: "Attempting a rebound following a downward trend. The share may consolidate further before continuing, higher" . The share has since risen by 34%. Previous Post: Tuesday 26 November 2024 (Time Published: 06h09) The current price trend (down) reflects the automatic price action reading which clearly states the share is weak (ST & MT) while the 8-week and 21-week EMA may act as resistance ranges on any short term rally. The fundamental impact on price is known, with the impact of the Chinese slowdown having filtered through to almost all global luxury peers, resulting in muted growth prospects which has caused market participants to sell down the shares. The share was previous a short/sell idea on 07 June when it traded into extreme short term overbought territory at a high of R3194 before retreating by 27% to it's recent low of R2309. While it the trend is fundamental outlook is bearish and the price is trending down, it may be worthwhile to keep an open mind for a potential change of trend following this multi-month consolidation . What do we need to see? Strong price action with volume would be an early indicator that the market's sentiment toward the share is starting to change + clear/reclaiming the downward trend line in place since the recent peak of 07 June 2024. View as of Thursday 21 November at 10h52. Previous Post: Richemont Is Retreating In Line With Model Reading - Wednesday, 18 September 2024 Real-Time: 10h45 Ticker: CFR Currently lower by R415 or 15.4% Potential target is the unfilled gap at ~R2380 Previous Post (22 August 2024) • REAL-TIME: 15h30 ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis for any tradeable instrument across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. The tool helps to determine and shed light on the some of the following: Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position? Whether a share is weak or if aggressive buying is underway Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading Discovery (-900c) In Line With Price Action Model
Trade Local & Global Instruments with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za The reading is referenced to the level on the chart (published in real-time at 12h03 ) and can also be seen in the original post below this chart. Previous Post: Standard Bank | Glencore | Discovery THIS PAGE WILL BE UPDATED (TICKERS ADDED) AS THE ANALYST CONDUCTS THEIR RESEARCH. Discovery Ltd (DSY) Glencore Plc (GLN) Standard Bank Group (SBK) Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action.
- Unum Capital Clients Benefit From Top Weekly Performers
Trade Platinum with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Out of the 101 local shares on my watchlist, NPH, IMP, SSW and ARI were the top performers (as of 11h15 on Friday morning). All four (4) were timeously discussed and highlighted in our research . Impala Platinum, Northam Platinum & Sibanye Stillwater https://www.unum.capital/post/plat-shares-gain Sibanye Stillwater (Single Post) https://www.unum.capital/post/sibanye-gain African Rainbow Minerals https://www.unum.capital/post/afrirain-cash Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading Mondi Plc: Consolidation Phase
#EarlyAccess Trade Mondi Plc with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za The previous buy/long target was exceeded, with the share have retreated over the ultra short term overbought levels (see previous model reading on this page). Now in a consolidation phase over the medium (2 to 4 weeks) and long term (5 to 8 weeks). Previous Post: Trading Mondi: Using Price Action Data To Manage The Risk MNP exceeded our target to trade as high as 30927c on Friday 14 February. The price action data, which helps to manage risk, read as follows at the end of the same day: "Aggressive buying, do not chase' i.e. do not buy as there is a risk of a pullback. The share has since declined from 30900c to 28200c. Below is the time-stamped readings as received by our traders. Well done to those who took profits and subsequently managed the risk. This opportunity was identified manually, as well as via the price action model (scroll down for the time-stamped readings) Edited: Friday 14 February. Currently running +15% Strong/improving candle structure. Trading at a 13-week high. Consider banking partial profits (full target is 29700c. Now 28758c) As always, traders could consider the following if/when the prices approaches the target: bank/take profit, partially scale out, adjust the stop-loss to protect profits. MNP Daily Chart as of Friday 31 January at 11h23 Price Action Model Buy Reading: Previous Day's Closing Comment (Time-Stamped, EOD 12-Nov) Previous Post: Trade Alert: Mondi Plc Wednesday 13 November 2024 (Time: 11h53) Share Code: MNP Below is the TEXT as per the accompanying image: HIGH RISK BUY IDEA therefore small-than-average position sizes may apply. The share has been sold off aggressively and is in a high bearish momentum regime while approaching oversold. I do not think that THIS is the exact low (i.e. I am expecting lower levels) however, this may be a RANGE to starting building a buy/long position with the expectation that a base starts to form over the near term followed by a potential bullish reversal. Buy at current levels or lower (traders could consider starting with a 1/3 of the position). As always, traders could consider the following if/when the prices approaches the target: bank/take profit, partially scale out, adjust the stop-loss to protect profits. Time stop: 09 May 2025. Trading Levels Suggested Entry: 26768c or better/lower (this was the price at the time of writing) Target: 29700c Stop-loss: 25400 MNP's Model Reading as of 11h46 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading JSE Consumer Discretionary / Clients Positioned For Alpha
#EarlyAccess Trade JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za As of Friday morning 10h05, the regimes for the equally-weight chart is as follows: Daily Regime: High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold Weekly Regime: Oversold Monthly Regime: Neutral If you avoided JSE consumer discretionary shares during year-to-date, or well short, well done. Relative to the JSE Top 40 Index, the group is down 15%. The chart below is a ratio/relative of MRP, TFG, TRU, WHL vs JSE Top 40 Index. Previous Post (07 January) highlighted that the bullish momentum was waning . Scroll down to view previous/original post. https://www.unum.capital/post/cons-disc-rel-waning Previous Post (07 January): JSE Consumer Discretionary: Relative To The Top 40, Bullish Momentum Is Waning Note the bearish MACD crossover and histogram which previously warned around a pullback. Equally-weighted index includes (TFG, MRP, TRU, WHL) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital











