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  • Trading Shoprite: Running +6.5%

    Trade   Shoprite Holdings (SHP) with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za In line with level (blue shaded area) and live action model reading. Previous Post (Tuesday 04 February) Trading Shoprite: Gap Filled + Approaching Oversold + Updated Model Reading Also, trading into the level of interest. Early buy readings, but heavy selling at present as noted by the large red candle. Look for stabilization on the lower time frame (30-Min, 1H, 2H) Previous Post (16 February): Trading Shoprite: Get ready To Trade + Levels of Interest. For clients trading SHP - watch the R260 to R265 range. It is a provisional level of interest on the buy/long side. If the price action change, we'll be quick to adjust. Stay flexible. Previous Post: Trading: Shoprite Holdings (SHP) Our selling level for the share was 31400c, as discussed on 01 August (scroll down to see original chart + comment). Over the past few months, the 31400c level was recognized by the market and has since acted as a level at which participants distributed the share . On a relative basis, SHP has also underperformed the JSE Top 40 Index. Note: there is an unfilled gap at 26462c which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This is possible short term buy/long re-accumulation level or a range to cover any short/sell positions. Previous Post: Shoprite: Marked Down - Tuesday, 03 September 2024 Real-Time: 10h38 Ticker: SHP The +31400c level was 'penciled in' as a level to monitor for an entry on the short/sell side. This is where sellers stepped in, from which have seen a sell-off down to 29542c at today's low (thus far). The group's earnings release has acted as a catalyst for the selling pressure. My original view is shown below: Previous Post: (01 August) : Overbought Near Key Inflection Points Real-Time: 10h38 Shoprite Holdings (SHP) ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that   are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which   is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis for any tradeable instrument across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. The tool helps to determine and shed light on the some of the following: A price action probability for the given time frame. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias.

  • Trading Sibanye Stillwater (Gaining 9 to 11%)

    Trade Sibanye Stillwater  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za On Thursday we discussed the long term cycle while also on Thursday, the end of day model reading was on point in alerting traders with a buy reading. This means that traders had an opportunity to accumulate the following session (Friday) with the share trading between 1388c and 1440c. Since then, the share has gain over 11%. The move is in line with our commentary and data on the rest of the Platinum shares ( https://www.unum.capital/post/plat-shares-gain ) Previous Post: Monthly Cycle ready To Unfold? SSW Monthly Chart - as of Thursday 27 February at 13h13 Upper Panel: SSW Relative To JSE Top 40 Index (Weekly Chart) - as of Thursday 27 February at 13h10 Lower Panel: Distance vs 200-Week SMA. The ratio is trading 67% below it's 200-week, which is an extreme disconnect from the long term average. In July we discussed a potential scenario for the share, with the potential path being a drop down to a potential range 1264c to 1353c before a potential rally off the long term channel support. The share dropped to 1400c which was followed by a rally to 2300c. Taking a step back, are we seeing the long term cycle unfolding? The slide below is from report: "Active Trading Plan: Monday 29 July 2024". Related Post: Sibanye Stillwater: Right Reading, Right Time Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Anheuser-Busch Inbev: Overbought In The Ultra Short Term

    Trade   AB Inbev   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Price Action model reading as of yesterday's close: Very decent run (+12%) from the automated trigger ( see second and third chart below with time-stamped readings!) Also, see both the Short Term (1 to 10 day) and Long Term (5 to 8 week) reading.

  • Trading Old Mutual: Model Warning Helps Short Sellers Get Paid (-13%)

    Trade Old Mutual  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Longs got paid. Then, our comment was to consider to reduce positions. Now, shorts are getting paid. The time stamped, end of day model readings are shown below. Previous Post (26 February): Trading Old Mutual: Running +10%  - Consider Reducing Long Positions In line with manual and automated/model reading. High of 1289c thus far, this morning. For short term traders , consider reducing buy/long positions. __________________________________________________________________________________ Previous Post : OLD MUTUAL: Oversold + Approaching Prior Swing Low Analyst's Price Action Model at 10h24 Q: What is the overall trend of Old Mutual? A: The overall trend of Old Mutual appears to be weak, with selling pressure evident. However, there is a probability of a small rebound. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The current 7-day trend for Old Mutual is oversold. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The current 14-day trend for Old Mutual is very bearish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: Yes, the reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position. Q: What is the advice for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: For the medium term, the advice is to wait for lower time frames to stabilize before taking any aggressive selling action. Q: What is the advice for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: The share has been weak however, there is a possibility of a small rebound. Summary: The Old Mutual price action model indicates a weak overall trend with oversold and very bearish short-term trends. Despite this, there's a potential opportunity for a small buy/long position due to the improving reward-to-risk ratio. For the medium term, it's recommended to wait for lower time frames to stabilize before aggressive selling. In the long term, the share has been weak however, there is a possibility of a small rebound. OMU Daily Chart as of Wednesday 15 January at 10h31 Previous Post: OLD MUTUAL Discount Relative To Sector Peers + Emerging From A Technical Base The most appropriate metric to value insurers is 'price to embedded value'. One could also consider price to book, price to earnings and dividend yield. Thursday 05 December 2024 (Time: 10h52) The most appropriate metric to value insurers is 'price to embedded value'. One could also consider price to book, price to earnings and dividend yield. Relative to it's peer group OMU is trading at a discount. OMU Price to Book Value (1.01x) vs SLM at 2.02x and MTM at 1.46x OMU Price to Earnings Ratio (6.5x) vs SLM at 11.9x and MTM at 10.3x OMU Dividend Yield (6.3%) vs SLM at 4.4x and MTM at 4.05x OMU has previously been discussed in the following posts: https://www.unum.capital/post/old-mutual-similar-to-momentum-metropolitan-thursday-01-august-2024 https://www.unum.capital/post/zooming-out-5-monthly-charts-thursday-01-august-2024 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • SA Equities: Trading Commentary (Full Coverage)

    Trade JSE Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. SHORT TERM (APPROXIMATELY 1 to 10 DAYS) - SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE PRICE ACTION DEVELOPS NOTE: THE MEDIUM TERM (2 TO 4 WEEKS) AND LONG TERM (5 TO 8 WEEK) READINGS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE M/TERM or L/TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital (Data as of end of day Wednesday 05 March 2025)

  • Here's The Reality. Deutsche Bank's Multi-Year Run (+164%)

    Access Global Shares & ETFs  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za Here's the reality. Here's Deutsche Bank at 164% higher than the recommended level. The reality is that the share briefly tested the stop-loss before going on a multi-year run. The reality is that is it never a smooth ride. Not always perfect timing in terms of ideas, however we have always added value in managing risk and uncovering opportunity! Join us today! Previous Post (03 March). European Financials Running +13% Previous Post (23 January): European Financials: Attractive Valuations + Improving Technical Structure In September of last year (2024), I discussed European equities being inexpensive near it's all-time highs. This week, the Euro Stoxx 600 printed new all-time highs. European Financials (EUFN ETF) form part of this group and are trading at the same level (in USD term) as they did in 2010 and 2011. Look at that multi-year base. In addition, the sector trades at valuations that would require very little to go right to see a re-rating. In other words, the bar is low. Previous Post: European Equities: Inexpensive Near All-Time Highs Thursday, 26 September 2024 at 21h12 ETF: iShares Europe Ticker: IEV Trading at 52-week highs, but remains relatively inexpensive Current Price = $58.78 Medium term target = $68 The setup is invalidated below 54.00

  • Trading Bid Corp: Generate Cash With An Active Approach

    Trade Bid Corp  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za The current price action model reading is as follows: Well done to clients who are capitalizing on the opportunities at hand. BID Corp has given clients opportunity on both the long (buy) and short (sell) side. The share has retreated by over 9% since recently entering an overbought range close to R480, as mentioned on 31 January (see time-stamped comment/note below). The end of day price action model reading on 31 January also warned traders that aggressive buying was underway but that they should NOT chase/buy as there was a risk of a pullback (the time-stamped reading is shown below). After A 6000c Rebound, This Is The Next Key Level To Monitor. To accelerate momentum, R470 remains a key level / now attempting to break above this level / in the short term, it has entered an overbought range. Note: It been flat for 12 months hence you could say it's not overextended. Exposure to Europe and UK + stronger ZAR has weighed however, if EUR & UK turn positive, the share could start to reflect the positive change in sentiment. [The original model reading (31-October), which highlighted the probability for a rebound, is shown further below on this page] BID Daily Chart as of Friday 31 January at 15h29 Clients will recall our model reading reading looking for a rebound 31 October (Note Published: Thursday 31 October 2024). Scroll down to view the original post. BID Daily Chart as of Friday 31 January at 15h26 Previous Post: Bid Corp: Sellers In Control But Potential For A Rebound Thursday 31 October 2024 Time Published: 09h56 Ticker: BID Here's What The Model Says Previous Post: BID CORP (BID): Full Target Reached - Wednesday, 31 July 2024 Real-Time: 15h41 The idea was the accumulate on prints below R422. The stop-loss was briefly breached, before a further consolidation and bullish reversal. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Sector Exposure Makes The iShares MSCI France ETF One To Consider

    Access Global ETFs  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Why EWQ? 1. Exposure to large and mid-sized companies in France 2. Targeted access to the French stock market 3. Use to express a single country view Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • U.S. Dollar Index Unwinding From Overbought (In Line With Model Reading)

    Trade   the US Dollar & other currencies   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za The US Dollar Index (now 104.98) is unwinding from overbought levels, as highlighted to clients on 03 January. Below is the daily as well as the weekly charts. The current model reading is shown below the updated chart. Daily Chart Previous Post: U.S. DOLLAR INDEX Short Term Overbought Overall Trend: 7-Day Trend:  Strong 14-Day Trend:  Very Bullish Short-Term Price Action Reading (1 to 10 Trading Days): Do Not Enter Long Here:  The risk-reward is considered unattractive at this point. Medium-Term Price Action Reading (2 to 4 Weeks): Aggressive Buying but Overbought:  The index is showing aggressive buying, but it is also overbought. Expect Consolidation or Minor Retracement:  Due to the overbought condition, a period of consolidation or a minor retracement is anticipated.    Long-Term Price Action Reading (5 to 8 Weeks): Aggressive Buying, But Do Not Chase:  The trend remains bullish, but it's advised not to chase the price. Look for Overshoot or Failure to Hold Prior Session Range Highs to Short-Sell Back to the 8-EMA:   To identify potential short-selling opportunities, traders should look for instances where the price overshoots or fails to hold the previous session's range highs. Key Takeaways: The U.S. Dollar Index is currently in a strong bullish trend, both in the short and medium term.    However, the overbought condition suggests a potential consolidation or minor retracement in the near future.    Traders are advised to exercise caution and avoid chasing the price at this time. Short-selling opportunities may arise if the price overshoots or fails to hold previous session highs. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital Note Added on 03 January 2025 at 12h20

  • Trading DRD Gold: Multi-Month High + Exceeding Price Target

    Trade   DRD Gold   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Some initial volatility + a base, but eventually a sharp rally! Depending on your entry, the gains are sitting between 25% and 30%. Original Post Here: https://www.unum.capital/post/trade-alert-drd-gold Previous Post: Trading DRD Gold Some short term volatility, followed by a base. The share slipped below the stop before recovering. Now approaching the full target of 1970c. Tuesday 12 November 2024 Time: 09h25 Added as a buy idea on the CMS platform. Traded into the provisional buy re-entry range. Entry: 1722c Target: 1970c Stop-loss: 1615c Previous Post: Monday 11 November 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market Share Name: DRD Gold Share Code: DRD 3 Confluence levels To Monitor For A Potential Buy Re-Entry The blue range represents the following: The re-test of the previous downward trend line breakout The re-test of the inverse head and shoulder formation The rising 75-day EMA If the share's downward momentum slows down at this range and the price action improves, then we will consider a buy/long re-entry. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Platinum Shares: Additional Gains

    Trade   Platinum Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Update: We are seeing further gains in Platinum shares with moves as follows: Impala Platinum: 8876c to 9815c Northam Platinum: 9751c to 11050c Sibanye Stillwater: 1401c to 1547c The model alerted us on Thursday evening and on Friday traders had an opportunity to accumulate. Out of the the 3 I discussed on Friday afternoon, 2 (NPH & SSW) had buy reading the previous evening (Thursday). The other (IMP) told us that we need to watch for a bullish reversal. All are readings time-stamped (as discussed/published on Friday afternoon). Oversold conditions are often opportunities. Great to see IMP, SSW and NPH among the leaders today. Trade Local & Global Instruments  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za THIS PAGE WILL BE UPDATED (TICKERS ADDED) AS THE ANALYST CONDUCTS THEIR RESEARCH. Impala Platinum (IMP) Northam Platinum (NPH) Sibanye Stillwater (SSW) Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that   are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action.

  • Trading EUR/USD: 3-Month High

    Trade   FX: EUR/USD   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Previous Post (20 January): EUR/USD Attempting A Bullish Reversal Following An Aggressive Sell-Off Analyst's Price Action Model Let's break down the EUR/USD trend analysis based on the price action model: Overall Trend: Long Term: Persistently Weak But Monitor Lower Times For Rebound Potential Short-Term Trends: 7-Day Trend: Neutral 14-Day Trend: Rangebound Short-Term Trading Opportunities: No explicit short-term buy/long position opportunities are indicated in the image. Medium-Term Outlook (2 to 4 weeks): Strong Attempting At Bullish Reversal Following Aggressive Sell-Off Long-Term Outlook (5 to 8 weeks): Persistently Weak But Monitor Lower Times For Rebound Potential Summary: The EUR/USD pair is currently in a long-term downtrend. In the short term, the 7-day trend is neutral, while the 14-day trend is rangebound. There is no explicit signal for a short-term buy or long position. However, the medium-term outlook suggests a potential bullish reversal following a recent sell-off. In the long term, the pair is expected to remain weak, but with potential for rebounds. ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that   are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which   is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis for any tradeable instrument across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

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