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Trade   Global Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Update: The pullback is in line with the model reading. As mentioned in the original post: The full target of $672 was reached earlier this week and the share traded above $700 post earnings. I was curious to know what the price action model for Meta Platforms stated ... Overbought + Very Bullish, But .... 'Sellers Becoming Active...' I'm NOT suggesting an immediate drop in price or that this is the exact top....but rather the potential for the formation a topping structure or slowdown in upward momentum over the next 3 to 5 months. i.e. the current levels offer a poor buy/long reward-to-risk going forward . Previous Post (01 February): Trading Meta Platforms (Facebook): 'Sellers Becoming Active' The full target of $672 was reached earlier this week and the share traded above $700 post earnings. I was curious to know what the price action model for Meta Platforms stated ... Overbought + Very Bullish, But .... 'Sellers Becoming Active...' I'm NOT suggesting an immediate drop in price or that this is the exact top....but rather the potential for the formation a topping structure or slowdown in upward momentum over the next 3 to 5 months. i.e. the current levels offer a poor buy/long reward-to-risk going forward . META chart as of Friday's close Previous Post: The full, measured move target has been of $672 has been reached (closed higher at $674). this represents a gain of 28% in 4 1/2 months. Bank, Take Profit. Previous Post: 12 September Real-Time: 19h12 (South African Time) / U.S Trading Session Ticker: FB Formerly known as Facebook Inc, the share has shown relative strength, holding near it's multi-year highs however not having made much progress since the first quarter of this year. This could change as the price looks to re-test it's overhead resistance of $543 upon which strong price action/candle structure would suggest a move into a new trading range and a continuation of the multi-year upward trend. Here, an upside target of $672 applicable, with the setup being invalidated on a weekly close below $490. Note: Meta Platforms (Facebook) was an idea flagged through my model nearly 2 years ago at $90. Now trading above $522! (Edit: This week (End Jan 2025), it traded above $700! Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Global Indices  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za On 05 December we discussed the index, highlighting the risk of a medium term retracement as well as the live reading from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Model) which was as follows: (2 to 4 week time frame): "a possible bearish reversal following a very bullish move" and (5 to 8 week time frame): Aggressive buying underway, but overbought on the lower time frame. Expect a consolidation or a minor retracement". Our analysis coincided with the medium term top as the index retreated from 6098 to 5768 (-330 points or -5%). This was followed by a rebound however, the index has struggled to clear over the overhead resistance range and maintain it's position above 6098 for a sustained period. Over the course of this week, we saw broad-based selling pressure, with the index at multi-week lows. The only two sectors which saw safe-haven buying were Consumer Staples and Utilities, both of which have featured strongly on our screens prior to the note and which we published as buy candidates. Links as follows: https://www.unum.capital/post/iyk-etf + https://www.unum.capital/post/jxi-etf S&P 500 Index Chart (Current) Previous Post: S&P 500 Index: Risk of a Medium Term Retracement Thursday 05 December 2024 (Time: 21h49) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Old Mutual  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Longs got paid. Then, our comment was to consider to reduce positions. Now, shorts are getting paid. The time stamped, end of day model reading is shown below. Previous Post (26 February): Trading Old Mutual: Running +10%  - Consider Reducing Long Positions In line with manual and automated/model reading. High of 1289c thus far, this morning. For short term traders , consider reducing buy/long positions. __________________________________________________________________________________ Previous Post : OLD MUTUAL: Oversold + Approaching Prior Swing Low Analyst's Price Action Model at 10h24 Q: What is the overall trend of Old Mutual? A: The overall trend of Old Mutual appears to be weak, with selling pressure evident. However, there is a probability of a small rebound. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The current 7-day trend for Old Mutual is oversold. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The current 14-day trend for Old Mutual is very bearish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: Yes, the reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position. Q: What is the advice for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: For the medium term, the advice is to wait for lower time frames to stabilize before taking any aggressive selling action. Q: What is the advice for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: The share has been weak however, there is a possibility of a small rebound. Summary: The Old Mutual price action model indicates a weak overall trend with oversold and very bearish short-term trends. Despite this, there's a potential opportunity for a small buy/long position due to the improving reward-to-risk ratio. For the medium term, it's recommended to wait for lower time frames to stabilize before aggressive selling. In the long term, the share has been weak however, there is a possibility of a small rebound. OMU Daily Chart as of Wednesday 15 January at 10h31 Previous Post: OLD MUTUAL Discount Relative To Sector Peers + Emerging From A Technical Base The most appropriate metric to value insurers is 'price to embedded value'. One could also consider price to book, price to earnings and dividend yield. Thursday 05 December 2024 (Time: 10h52) The most appropriate metric to value insurers is 'price to embedded value'. One could also consider price to book, price to earnings and dividend yield. Relative to it's peer group OMU is trading at a discount. OMU Price to Book Value (1.01x) vs SLM at 2.02x and MTM at 1.46x OMU Price to Earnings Ratio (6.5x) vs SLM at 11.9x and MTM at 10.3x OMU Dividend Yield (6.3%) vs SLM at 4.4x and MTM at 4.05x OMU has previously been discussed in the following posts: https://www.unum.capital/post/old-mutual-similar-to-momentum-metropolitan-thursday-01-august-2024 https://www.unum.capital/post/zooming-out-5-monthly-charts-thursday-01-august-2024 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Sanlam   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za On 28 January, we discussed Sanlam as a buy/long opportunity with the model being a major driver of that view. The result? An +11% Rally. Since then the share traded into overbought and gave another sell reading via the model. Check out the time-stamped reading below. Volatility Equals Opportunity. Well done to those who are capitalizing. Previous Post (21 February): Trading Sanlam (+10%): Longs Getting Paid We wrote about Sanlam on 28 January, highlighted the price action guide (tactical trading guide) in real-time. This post also highlights the model reading on Friday 24 January which alerted and prepared traders for an opportunity to build a buy long position. Previous Post (28 January): Trading Sanlam: Actionable Areas (+Price Action Model) Consider partially covering any short/sell positions. This is what the price action model says: Note the long term reading (5 to 8 weeks) which alerts us to look for support at any previous swing low (see circled area). Also see the chart for potential support at the previous swing lows. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za The indicator is a custom-built sentiment index, designed to assess market risk appetite, including whether sentiment is at an extreme position (i.e. excessively bullish or excessively bearish). Components: Copper: Copper often serves as a proxy for global economic activity. A decline in copper prices could signal slowing economic growth, increasing risk. High Beta vs Low Beta: High beta stocks tend to be more volatile than low beta stocks. A widening spread between high and low beta returns might indicate increased risk aversion. Growth vs Value: Growth stocks typically outperform value stocks in bull markets. A shift towards value stocks could suggest investors are becoming more cautious. EM Currencies: Emerging market currencies can be sensitive to risk appetite. A weakening of EM currencies could signal increased risk aversion. AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar is often used as a proxy for global risk sentiment. A decline in AUD/USD could indicate increased risk aversion. Consumer Staples vs Consumer Discretionary: Consumer staples are generally considered defensive assets. A shift towards consumer staples could suggest investors are seeking safety. Semiconductors vs S&P 500: The semiconductor sector is cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. Underperformance of semiconductors relative to the broader market could signal increased risk. Russell 2000 ETF: This ETF tracks small-cap stocks, which are generally considered riskier than large-cap stocks. Underperformance of the Russell 2000 could suggest increased risk aversion. U.S. Dollar Index (Inverse): A strengthening US Dollar often signals a flight to safety, suggesting increased risk aversion.

Trade Brent Crude Oil  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za No, I did not call the exact top, but we recognized the poor upside reward-to-risk and potential for a pullback. Scroll down to see the model reading at the time: "Expect a minor retracement" Previous Post (Sunday 12 January): BRENT CRUDE OIL: 7-Week Bullish Reversal + Further Gains Pushes Commodity Near Short Term Overbought Analyst's Price Action Model What is the overall trend for Brent Crude Oil? The overall trend is bullish, but the market is currently nearing an overbought range. What is the short-term price action reading? Aggressive buying is underway, but the market is overbought on the lower time frame. Consolidation or a minor retracement is likely. What is the medium-term price action reading? Aggressive buying is underway, but traders should not chase the market higher. Look for an opportunity to short-sell back to the 8-EMA if there is an overshoot or failure to hold prior session range highs. What is the long-term price action reading? A strong attempt at a bullish reversal is expected following a consolidation phase. Previous Post: Strong price action over 2 weeks and a strong reversal in the 7 weeks since the 'Strategy Alert' (see below). Previous Post: Strategy Alert: Brent Crude Oil Wednesday 13 November 2024 (Time: 15h42) Potentially Bullish: Inverse Hammer Candle Formation In Development. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Shoprite Holdings (SHP) with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Also, trading into the level of interest. Early buy readings, but heavy selling at present as noted by the large red candle. Look for stabilization on the lower time frame (30-Min, 1H, 2H) Previous Post (16 February): Trading Shoprite: Get ready To Trade + Levels of Interest. For clients trading SHP - watch the R260 to R265 range. It is a provisional level of interest on the buy/long side. If the price action change, we'll be quick to adjust. Stay flexible. Previous Post: Trading: Shoprite Holdings (SHP) Our selling level for the share was 31400c, as discussed on 01 August (scroll down to see original chart + comment). Over the past few months, the 31400c level was recognized by the market and has since acted as a level at which participants distributed the share . On a relative basis, SHP has also underperformed the JSE Top 40 Index. Note: there is an unfilled gap at 26462c which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This is possible short term buy/long re-accumulation level or a range to cover any short/sell positions. Previous Post: Shoprite: Marked Down - Tuesday, 03 September 2024 Real-Time: 10h38 Ticker: SHP The +31400c level was 'penciled in' as a level to monitor for an entry on the short/sell side. This is where sellers stepped in, from which have seen a sell-off down to 29542c at today's low (thus far). The group's earnings release has acted as a catalyst for the selling pressure. My original view is shown below: Previous Post: (01 August) : Overbought Near Key Inflection Points Real-Time: 10h38 Shoprite Holdings (SHP) ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that   are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which   is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis for any tradeable instrument across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. The tool helps to determine and shed light on the some of the following: A price action probability for the given time frame. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias.

A picture paints a thousand words... Lower yields interpreted as a ' growth scare '. US 10-Year Bond Yield down to 4.11% this morning, from above 4.80% in January. Bond bulls are getting paid! Rotation OUT OF high beta (Technology, Consumer Discretionary) INTO low volatility (Healthcare, Consumer Staples, Real-Estate and Utilities) Rotation OUT OF U.S. INTO Rest of World' An insightful comment (heard at the beginning of this year) from an international market participant: ' For Europe and the rest of the world, the bar is low. For the United States, the bar is high .' The above comment speaks to our previously positive index view on Europe (Inexpensive Near All-Time Highs, 26 September 2024): https://www.unum.capital/post/european-equities-inexpensive-near-all-time-highs and negative index view on the United States (Risk of A Medium Term Retracement, 05 December 2024) : https://www.unum.capital/post/spy-mterm Amidst the growth scare, there have been plenty of the opportunities for active traders! Source: Koyfin Previous Post (Sunday 02 March): Talking Points - 10 Things You Need To Know The year 2025 has begun with a shift in global market trends. For the first two months, the United States stock market has remained stagnant, failing to match the growth seen in other parts of the world. This lack of movement in U.S. equities is a notable change. Adding to this picture, U.S. bond yields have been decreasing. This drop, from 4.70% to 4.20%, has caused concern among investors, who fear a slowdown in economic growth. This worry, termed a "growth scare," is fueled by uncertainty surrounding future economic policies. The U.S. dollar has also weakened, mirroring the trend in bond yields. This decline has allowed for a broader range of market growth, as the dollar's previous strength had been a limiting factor. In Europe, stock markets are experiencing a surge, reaching multi-year highs. This growth is partly attributed to lower stock valuations in the region. However, despite these recent gains, the overall long-term progress in European markets remains modest. Meanwhile, Chinese stocks are showing signs of recovery. This improvement is driven by a combination of low stock prices and government support for the technology sector, boosting investor confidence. In South Africa, stocks focused on the local economy have seen a decline after a period of growth. Investors are now taking profits and closely examining the country's economic growth and upcoming company earnings reports. However, on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), industrial companies have performed well. Companies like Naspers, Prosus, British American Tobacco, and Richemont have been leading the market gains. In contrast, South African mining companies, specifically those involved in diversified mining and platinum mining, have seen little movement in their stock prices in recent weeks. In the U.S., investors are showing a preference for stable, reliable sectors like healthcare and consumer staples. These sectors, known as "defensives," are seen as safer investments during times of uncertainty. Technology stocks, which are considered more risky, have lagged behind. Outside the U.S., technology, financial, and consumer discretionary sectors have been leading the market growth. This divergence highlights a changing focus among global investors. In summary, a key trend is emerging: investors are increasingly looking beyond the U.S. market. This shift is evidenced by the stronger performance of markets in other parts of the world. As one analyst pointed out, expectations for the U.S. market are high, while expectations for the rest of the world are relatively low, allowing for more potential growth. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Analyst's Disclosure: These results were summarized using an A.I tool. Improved Performance: Nedbank reported an 8% increase in headline earnings, reaching R16.9 billion, and a strengthened return on equity (ROE) of 15.8%, indicating progress towards their financial targets. Challenging Economy: The 2024 operating environment was difficult, with low South African GDP growth. However, a stable election outcome and gradual improvements in the fourth quarter provided some optimism. Financial Results: Headline earnings growth was driven by strong non-interest revenue, lower impairment charges, and effective expense management, despite slower loan growth and margin pressures. Shareholder Returns: Diluted headline earnings per share (DHEPS) rose by 11%, benefiting from share buybacks. A final dividend of 1,104 cents per share was declared, up by 8%. Technology Transformation: The completion of the Managed Evolution IT transformation provided a modern technology platform, supporting digital growth and improved client satisfaction. Strategic Gains: Nedbank achieved market share gains in key areas, including home loans, vehicle finance, and wholesale term lending, alongside growth in retail deposits. Sustainable Finance: The bank continued its commitment to sustainable development, with substantial lending aligned with UN Sustainable Development Goals, and significant growth in renewable energy financing. Operational Efficiency: The Target Operating Model 2.0 program delivered R3 billion in cost benefits through headcount reduction, real estate optimization, and back-office improvements. Strategic Evolution: The new Transform agenda focuses on leveraging technology, data, and AI, optimizing processes, expanding insurance cross-selling, and diversifying into East Africa. Organizational Restructuring: Nedbank is restructuring its Retail and Business Banking (RBB) and Wealth clusters for greater client centricity, creating Personal and Private Banking (PPB) and Business and Commercial Banking (BCB) divisions. Cautious Optimism: Nedbank anticipates an improved South African economic environment in 2025, with forecasted GDP growth and declining interest rates, which gives confidence in continued ROE growth. Strong Foundations: Nedbank emphasizes its strong capital and liquidity, vibrant culture, ESG leadership, and technology investments, positioning it for future growth and continued progress towards its ROE targets. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

For Clients Trading: AGL, NED Trade Local & Global Instruments  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za THIS PAGE WILL BE UPDATED (TICKERS ADDED) AS THE ANALYST CONDUCTS THEIR RESEARCH. Anglo American Plc (AGL) Nedbank Group (NED) Sasol (SOL) Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that   are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action.

Trade JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital