Search this site

Trade JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Aspen Pharmacare & More  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za Trade Ideas For Getting Long, Short & Long Again. Within the span of 24 months, the share has provided clients of Unum Capital with three opportunities to profit. These opportunities came on the long (buy), short (sell) side and then long (buy) side again, benefiting from a rising and falling share price. The short leg provided short term traders with 3x opportunities to sell above 23500c. Although the share briefly test the stop-loss level (a spike), the share pullback was in line with the view. The updated chart, with the time-stamped ideas, is shown below. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade JSE Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. SHORT TERM (APPROXIMATELY 1 to 10 DAYS) - SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE PRICE ACTION DEVELOPS NOTE: THE MEDIUM TERM (2 TO 4 WEEKS) AND LONG TERM (5 TO 8 WEEK) READINGS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE M/TERM or L/TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital (Data as of end of day Monday 03 March 2025)

The model is a guide. It's not A.I or a modern computer code. It's just plain, old-fashion price action. You could even call it unorthodox and unsophisticated. Is it perfect? No, but then again, what model is? Is it useful? Yes, It's my mental process for assessing opportunities in a documented, written format. It helps assess reward-to-risk and uncover opportunity. To see PGMs with a massive bullish reversal is no surprise. The model told us on Thursday evening and on Friday traders had an opportunity to accumulate. Out of the the 3 I discussed on Friday afternoon, 2 (NPH & SSW) had buy reading the previous evening (Thursday). The other (IMP) told us that we need to watch for a bullish reversal. All are readings time-stamped (as discussed/published on Friday afternoon). Oversold conditions are often opportunities. Great to see IMP, SSW and NPH among the leaders today. Trade Local & Global Instruments  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za THIS PAGE WILL BE UPDATED (TICKERS ADDED) AS THE ANALYST CONDUCTS THEIR RESEARCH. Impala Platinum (IMP) Northam Platinum (NPH) Sibanye Stillwater (SSW) Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that   are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action.

Trade African Rainbow Minerals  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Discussed a few days ago (Wednesday 26-Feb) at 13390c. Of course, it wasn't the exact low and clients had an even better opportunity to buy as low as ~12800c. Now trading +14000c Get Out. Get Out. Get Paid! Previous Post (Wednesday 26 February): Trading African Rainbow Minerals: Live Model Reading (Oversold/Attractive) As the price continues to get sold off aggressively, this model reading might be worth noting. Previous Post (Tuesday, 25 February End of Day): My comment a few days ago above R167 was: "short term traders, consider taking profits. It's R140 now!" Previous Post Running +9%. Edit: Closed the day very strong & now running +10% ARI Daily Chart as of end of day. If you are an ultra short term trader, then a move of this size could be an opportunity bank/take profit, however, for medium term traders, we could be in the early stages of a bigger move. Also moving perfectly in line with the price action model reading (scrolls down to view). Previous Post (Sunday, 12 January for Monday 13 January): African Rainbow Minerals: Breaking Out On A Relative Basis (Bullish Setup) African Rainbow Minerals Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index African Rainbow Minerals (ARI) Analyst's Price Action Model The 7-day trend is strong, and the 14-day trend is rangebound. Q: What is the overall trend for African Rainbow Minerals in the short term (1 to 10 trading days)? A: attempting a bullish reversal following a consolidation phase. This suggests a potential upward move in the short term. Q: What is the medium-term trend (2 to 4 weeks) for African Rainbow Minerals? A: The medium-term trend is attempting a rebound following a downward trend. This indicates a potential upward movement, but it may consolidate further before continuing higher. Q: What is the long-term trend (5 to 8 weeks) for African Rainbow Minerals? A: The long-term trend is range-bound in a weak regime. A recovery buy or long position is triggered on strong bids and a break of the current range high. This suggests a potential upward move, but it may be range-bound for a while. Q: What are the key takeaways from this price action analysis? A: The short-term trend is bullish, suggesting a potential upward move. The medium-term trend is attempting a rebound, but may consolidate further before continuing higher. The long-term trend is range-bound, but a recovery buy or long position is triggered on strong bids and a break of the current range high. Q: What are some potential strategies for trading African Rainbow Minerals based on this analysis? A: Short-term traders: May look to buy on dips or breakouts in the short term, as the trend is bullish. Medium-term traders: May look to buy on a break of the current resistance level, as the medium-term trend is attempting a rebound. Long-term traders: May look to buy on strong bids and a break of the current range high, as the long-term trend is range-bound. Previous Post: African Rainbow Minerals: A +29% Rally; Now Short Term Overbought Wednesday, 02 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market (06h11) Ticker: ARI Significant rally off the swing lows of R155 to a high R201.98 during yesterday's session. Short term traders, take profit or trim some of your position. Previous Post: Wednesday, 13 September 2024. 11h55 The share has now rallied by R37, with a high of R192.64 today. Short term/active traders will use these advances to reduce exposure and potentially re-enter at lower levels. The high was also into my actionable trading zone (sell/reduce), pulling back to R187 on an intraday basis. Scroll down to see the previous (+original) posts which were communicated to clients of Unum Capital. The chart is 'current' Previous Post: 13 September 2024 Update / Pre-Market Ticker: ARI Previous Post: 12 September Real-Time: 10h21 Ticker: ARI The share has found support at the previous swing low and is rebounding from deeply oversold conditions. This setup was discussed on Monday, 02 September. The chart is 'current' Pre-Market Ticker: ARI As per my report on Monday, 02 September (Active Trading Plan), the share is approaching key levels i.e. the previous breakout range and the previous swing lows. Also note the following, yesterday we saw a 'doji' candle being printed, which may be early clues of a slowdown in downward momentum. Note: Event risk in the form of earnings at present (Friday, 06 September). The slide from my report is shown below. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Analyst's Disclosure: These results were summarized using an A.I tool. Strong Revenue Growth: Group insurance revenue increased by 12% to R52.317 million. Increased Dividend: The ordinary dividend per share rose by 9% to 985.00 cents. Improved Earnings: Basic earnings per share increased by 13% to 3,356 cents. Significant HEPS Growth: Headline earnings per share (HEPS) saw a substantial 51% increase to 3,477 cents. Enhanced Underwriting Margin: Conventional insurance net underwriting margin improved significantly to 7.6% from 3.5% in the previous year. Growth in Net Earned Premium: Conventional insurance net earned premium (NEP) grew by 10% to R32.2 billion. Increased ART Profit: Alternative risk transfer (ART) profit before tax rose to R781 million. Healthy Return on Equity: Return on shareholders' funds was a strong 31.9%. Improved Capital Coverage: Economic capital coverage ratio increased to 166%. Strategic Progress: The company made progress in implementing its FutureFit 2030 strategy and refreshed brand, contributing to improved profitability.

Trade   Aspen Pharmacare   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Today's high = 18431c Analyst's Disclosure: These results were summarized using an A.I tool. Overall Performance: Aspen achieved robust operational growth, highlighted by a 21% increase in normalized EBITDA and a 17% rise in normalized headline earnings per share, both measured at constant exchange rates (CER). This strong underlying performance was driven by significant contributions from both the Commercial Pharmaceuticals and Manufacturing segments. Currency Impact: However, the strengthening of the South African Rand (ZAR) against other trading currencies significantly diluted the reported financial results compared to the CER figures. This currency fluctuation created a notable disparity between underlying operational strength and reported outcomes. Commercial Pharmaceuticals Growth: The Commercial Pharmaceuticals segment demonstrated solid growth, with a 13% increase in both revenue and normalized EBITDA at CER. This highlights the segment's strong market performance and effective strategic execution. Manufacturing Surge: The Manufacturing segment experienced exceptional growth, with normalized EBITDA more than doubling. This surge was primarily attributed to the increased contribution from sterile contract manufacturing, indicating a successful expansion in this specialized area. New Product Launch: A significant achievement was the successful launch of Lilly's Tirzepatide-based product, Mounjaro, in South Africa. This launch is expected to be a key growth driver for the Africa Middle East region, enhancing Aspen's market presence and product offerings. Latin American Integration: The successful integration of acquired products in Latin America played a crucial role in boosting revenue growth. This demonstrates Aspen's ability to effectively expand its operations through strategic acquisitions and integrations. GLP-1 Initiatives: Aspen made substantial progress in its GLP-1 initiatives, which represent a significant growth opportunity for both the Commercial Pharmaceuticals and Manufacturing segments. This strategic focus positions Aspen to capitalize on the growing market for diabetes and obesity treatments. Tax Rate Increase: Earnings growth was moderated by an increased effective tax rate, primarily due to South Africa's implementation of the OECD's BEPS Pillar 2, which sets a global minimum tax rate of 15%. This regulatory change has impacted Aspen's financial reporting. Salient Highlights: Key financial highlights include a 4% increase in revenue (9% at CER) to R22.0 billion, a 12% increase in normalized EBITDA (21% at CER) to R5.8 billion, and a 5% increase in normalized headline earnings per share (17% at CER) to 724.2 cents. Group Performance Details: The Group's overall positive performance was driven by strong results across all business segments. Revenue grew by 4% (9% CER), with gross profit rising by 12% (20% CER). Normalized EBITDA increased by 12% (21% CER), and operating profit rose by 11% (23% CER). Financial Costs and Tax: Normalized net financing costs increased by 20% due to higher interest rates and increased net debt. Higher tax expenses, influenced by regional profit mix and BEPS Pillar 2, diluted normalized headline earnings per share growth to 5% (17% CER). Working Capital and Debt: Higher working capital investment in Manufacturing inventory, primarily seasonal, impacted operating cash flows, reducing the operating cash conversion rate. Net debt increased to R30.0 billion, but the leverage ratio remained within the target range. Commercial Pharmaceuticals Segment: This segment showed robust revenue growth of 7% (13% CER), supported by the Latin American acquisitions and organic growth. Gross profit margins remained strong. Prescription Brands: The Prescription Brands segment experienced double-digit growth of 19% (25% CER), with the Americas region leading the growth, followed by Africa Middle East. OTC Segment: The OTC segment saw a revenue decline of 3% (+2% CER), impacted by order delays in Africa Middle East. However, other regions showed solid growth, and the Australasia OTC portfolio performed strongly. Injectables Portfolio: The Injectables portfolio returned to growth, rising 4% (10% CER), driven by the Lilly products in Africa Middle East and the product swap with Sandoz in Asia. Manufacturing Segment Performance: Manufacturing revenue decreased by 4% (0% CER), with growth in FDF revenue offset by declines in Heparin and API businesses. However, FDF revenue surged due to sterile manufacturing contracts, and gross profit margins improved significantly. Future Prospects: Aspen anticipates double-digit CER revenue and normalized EBITDA growth from Commercial Pharmaceuticals, supported by organic growth and acquisitions. Manufacturing is expected to continue robust growth, driven by sterile manufacturing and a rebound in the API business. Strategic Initiatives: Aspen is making significant progress in commercializing the Novo insulin manufacturing contract and advancing its GLP-1 initiatives. Regulatory changes in South Africa are expected to benefit the Serum paediatric vaccines. Financial Outlook: Aspen expects manufacturing inventory levels to decrease in the second half, improving cash flow. Finance costs are anticipated to decrease due to lower interest rates. Effective tax rates are expected to remain higher due to increased manufacturing profits and BEPS Pillar 2. As always, traders could consider the following if/when the prices approaches the target: bank/take profit, partially scale out, adjust the stop-loss to protect profits. As published in on 28 November, the 5 to 8 week reading (at R166) stated: "Look for a dip before a minor rebound" (see below). Now trading above R180. Previous Post: Trade Idea - Buy Aspen Pharmacare Text from the image above: HIGH RISK BUY IDEA therefore small-than-average position sizes may apply. The share has been sold off aggressively and was previously in a high bearish momentum regime while approaching oversold. A base has developed and this may be a RANGE to starting building a buy/long position with the expectation that the base is maintained over the near term followed by a potential bullish reversal. Buy at current levels or lower (traders could consider starting with a 1/3 of the position). As always, traders could consider the following if/when the prices approaches the target: bank/take profit, partially scale out, adjust the stop-loss to protect profits. Time stop: 09 June 2025. TRADING LEVELS: Entry: 17124 (or better) Target: 19000 Stop-loss: 15900 Previous Post: ASPEN PHARMACARE Noted: Above-Average Volume (4.5m Shares) + Value Traded (R779m) Tuesday 10 December 2024 (Time: Pre-Market) 10-day average volume: 1.4m shares 30-day average volume: 1.2m shares Yesterday's volume: 4.5m shares Value trade: R779m Previous Post: ASPEN PHARMACARE The Bull, Bear & Base Case Thursday 28 November 2024 (Time: Pre-Market, 06h32) This is an update. Please scroll down for the previous posts. The price action remains unhealthy, with strong selling pressure, with my view being that is that it is too early to buy, however, it may be worthwhile adding it to your watchlist for when the price action stabilizes/improves. Bear Case = A print lower, with a very slow recovery which includes opportunity cost. Base Case = A print lower, with a slower, but eventual recovery. Bull Case = A print lower, followed an overshoot of the ~R160-ish support range, followed by a relatively quick price recovery. The dotted arrow represents my best-probability price action scenario. Bear Case = A print lower, with a very slow recovery which includes opportunity cost. Base Case = A print lower, with a slower, but eventual recovery (possible little downside from here). Bull Case = A print lower, followed an overshoot (false breakdown) of the ~R160-ish support range, followed by a relatively quick price recovery (possible little downside from here). Adding to the above, as of yesterday's close, the price action data was as follows: Previous Post: Aspen Pharmacare: Unhealthy Price Action, But Flashing For Opportunity Wednesday 23 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market Ticker: APN I am fully aware of the heavy selling pressure and poor price action, however, I am starting to notice readings coming through which states that the reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position. While the readings are there, it may just be sensible to wait until the price stops going down and starts to form a base...or gives us a 'flush low' and a V-shaped reversal setup. Notice the 5 to 8 week reading also stating that selling is aggressive and that we should wait for the price to stabilize? I drew these lines a few weeks ago, thinking R160 or thereabout would be a level of interest. Previous Post: Aspen Pharmacare: The Long and Short of It - Thursday, 05 September 2024 Pre-Market Ticker: APN Within the span of 19 months, the share has provided clients of Unum Capital with two opportunities to profit. These opportunities came on both the long (buy) and short (sell) side, benefiting from a rising and falling share price. The short leg provided short term traders with 3x opportunities to sell above 23500c. Although the share briefly test the stop-loss level (a spike), the share pullback was in line with the view. The updated chart, with the time-stamped ideas, is shown below. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Access Global Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Discussed last week Monday 24 February. Running +13% as part of the European defense theme. Previous Post: Monday 24 February Sector: Aerospace & Defense Country: Norway Kongsberg Gruppen ASA engages in delivering technology systems and solutions to clients within the oil and gas industry, merchant marine, defence, and aerospace. It operates through the following segments: Kongsberg Maritime, Kongsberg Defence and Aerospace, and Other. Technical Multi-month base below multi-month highs. Trigger level = 13.90 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Access Global Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za Must be the historical meeting in the White House on Friday evening?! Previous Post (12 February): Global Ideas: Atmos Energy | Haleon Plc | Thales | Inditex | Xylem Five constructive technical setups with a buy/long bias. Atmos Energy Corp. engages in the provision of natural gas services. Haleon Plc engages in the provision of personal healthcare products. Thales SA is a holding company that engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of electronic equipment and systems for aeronautics, naval, and defense sectors. Industria de Diseno Textil SA, known as Inditex SA , is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the textile industry. The Company’s activities include the design, confection, manufacturing, distribution and retail of men, women and children apparel, footwear and fashion accessories, as well as home furnishings and household textile products. The Company’s business is divided into three segments: Zara, which provides various fashion and home items under the Zara brand name; Bershka, offering clothes under the Bershka brand name, which aims at teenagers, and Other, which retails apparel under Stradivarius, Oysho, Pull&Bear and Massimo Dutti brand names, among others. Xylem, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and application of engineered technologies for the water industry. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Access Global Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Code: BAER Bias: Buy/Long Multi-year base + potential support as a a result of the uplift in European equities. The idea is in line with our POSITIVE view on European equities as discussed on 26 September: "European Equities: Inexpensive Near All-Time Highs" Link: https://www.unum.capital/post/european-equities-inexpensive-near-all-time-highs Julius Bär Gruppe AG engages in the provision of private banking services. Its services include discretionary mandates, investment advisory, open product and service platform, financial market services, investor services, financing, and wealth planning. The company was founded by Raymond Julius Baer in 2009 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland. Consensus Analyst Estimates Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Access Global ETFs  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Why REZ? 1. Exposure to the U.S. residential real estate sector 2. Targeted access to a subset of domestic real estate stocks and real estate investment trusts (REITs), which invest in real estate directly and trade like stocks 3. Use to diversify your portfolio and express a view on a specific U.S. real estate sector Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Access Global Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Ventas, Inc. engages in the acquisition and ownership of seniors housing and healthcare properties. It operates through the following segments: Senior Housing Operating Portfolio (SHOP), Outpatient Medical and Research Portfolio (OM&R), and Triple-net Leased Properties (NNN). The SHOP segment is involved in owning and investing in senior housing communities throughout the United States and Canada. The OM&R segment refers to acquiring, owning, development, leasing and managing outpatient medical buildings and research centers throughout the United States. The NNN segment focuses on investing and owning senior housing communities, skilled nursing facilities, long-term acute care facilities, freestanding inpatient rehabilitation facilities, and other healthcare facilities throughout the United States and the United Kingdom. The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Chicago, IL. Code: VTR Bias: Buy/Long Re-emerging Momentum Consensus Analyst Estimates Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital