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The year 2025 has begun with a shift in global market trends. For the first two months, the United States stock market has remained stagnant, failing to match the growth seen in other parts of the world. This lack of movement in U.S. equities is a notable change. Adding to this picture, U.S. bond yields have been decreasing. This drop, from 4.70% to 4.20%, has caused concern among investors, who fear a slowdown in economic growth. This worry, termed a "growth scare," is fueled by uncertainty surrounding future economic policies. The U.S. dollar has also weakened, mirroring the trend in bond yields. This decline has allowed for a broader range of market growth, as the dollar's previous strength had been a limiting factor. In Europe, stock markets are experiencing a surge, reaching multi-year highs. This growth is partly attributed to lower stock valuations in the region. However, despite these recent gains, the overall long-term progress in European markets remains modest. Meanwhile, Chinese stocks are showing signs of recovery. This improvement is driven by a combination of low stock prices and government support for the technology sector, boosting investor confidence. In South Africa, stocks focused on the local economy have seen a decline after a period of growth. Investors are now taking profits and closely examining the country's economic growth and upcoming company earnings reports. However, on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), industrial companies have performed well. Companies like Naspers, Prosus, British American Tobacco, and Richemont have been leading the market gains. In contrast, South African mining companies, specifically those involved in diversified mining and platinum mining, have seen little movement in their stock prices in recent weeks. In the U.S., investors are showing a preference for stable, reliable sectors like healthcare and consumer staples. These sectors, known as "defensives," are seen as safer investments during times of uncertainty. Technology stocks, which are considered more risky, have lagged behind. Outside the U.S., technology, financial, and consumer discretionary sectors have been leading the market growth. This divergence highlights a changing focus among global investors. In summary, a key trend is emerging: investors are increasingly looking beyond the U.S. market. This shift is evidenced by the stronger performance of markets in other parts of the world. As one analyst pointed out, expectations for the U.S. market are high, while expectations for the rest of the world are relatively low, allowing for more potential growth. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   FX: EUR/USD   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade FX: USD/ZAR  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za On 20 January, we discussed the R18.23 to R18.36 range as a buy re-entry range. The pair traded into that level, and which has continuously acted as a level at which buyers have taken an interest. At first, the pair traded into 18.29, which was followed by a rally to R19.03. Next, a pullback into that same support range, with R18.29 being firm support. On Friday, the pair rallied to a multi-day high of R18.72. Well done to clients who may have capitalized on the short term volatility. The current price action model reading is as follows: Previous Post: (03 February) - Support & Rebound Off Mid Point (R18.29) Re-Entry Buy Range (R18.23 to R18.36). Reached a high of R19.03 in early Monday trade. USD/ZAR Daily Chart as of 10h29 Previous Post: USD/ZAR The 50/75-EMA Range (R18.23 to R18.36) Is A Best Probability Support Zone Analyst Price Action Model as of Monday 20 January at 18h56 Overall Trend: Long Term: Consolidating Within an Upward Trend. The 8-EMA Has Been Breached, Use The 21-EMA (Weekly) As a Potential Buy Range. Short-Term Trends: 7-Day Trend: Weak 14-Day Trend: Weak Within A Sideways Consolidation Rangebound Short-Term Trading Opportunities: No explicit short-term buy/long position opportunities are mentioned. The focus is on the long-term trend and using moving averages for potential buy ranges. Medium-Term Outlook (2 to 4 weeks) : No reading available. Long-Term Outlook (5 to 8 weeks): Consolidating Within an Upward Trend. The 8-EMA Has Been Breached, Use The 21-EMA As a Potential Buy Range. In Summary: The USD/ZAR pair is currently in a long-term uptrend with recent consolidation. While the short-term trends are weak, the long-term outlook suggests a potential buy opportunity using the 21-EMA (weekly) as a reference point. Previous Post (19 January): USD/ZAR Bearish Reversal In Line With Model Reading (R19.21 to R18.63) Last week, before trading commenced in Asia, our key view around the Rand was that the USDZAR pair was approaching short term overbought conditions and that any failure to hold the range highs could result in a bearish reversal from the overbought regime. On Monday, the pair traded above the previous session (Friday) highs before developing a long upper tail which signaled an exhaustion of the bullish momentum. From above R19.21, the pair reached a low of R18.63 before midday on Friday , breaching it's 8-day EMA but remaining above it's rising 21-day EMA. USDZAR Daily Chart as of Friday 17 January at 14h31 In case you may have missed the previous note, please scroll down. Previous Post: Before You Trade USD/ZAR, Read This (12 January) Analyst's Price Action Model What is the overall trend for USD/ZAR? The overall trend for USD/ZAR is bullish across all timeframes. What is the short-term (1 to 10 days) price action reading? The short-term price action is very strong and bullish. Buyers are in control, but it's advised not to chase the price. If the price fails to hold the highs, the 8-EMA could be a short-sell target. What is the medium-term (2 to 4 weeks) price action reading? The medium-term price action is also very strong and bullish. Buyers are in control, but again, it's advised not to chase the price. If the price fails to hold the highs, the 8-EMA could be a short-sell target. What is the long-term (5 to 8 weeks) price action reading? The long-term price action is showing aggressive buying underway. However, it's advised not to chase the price. Look for an opportunity to short-sell back to the 8-EMA if the price fails to hold prior session range highs. In summary, the USD/ZAR is in a strong uptrend across all timeframes. Traders should be cautious and avoid chasing the price. Short-selling opportunities may arise if the price fails to hold key levels or becomes extended vs key moving averages. Points To Ponder: The pair is trading at an extended level above it's 75-day exponential moving average. Although extended, it is not extreme compared to historical distance readings. The pair is above a rising 8-day EMA. The pair is above a rising 21-day EMA. The 75-day EMA has turned upward. The 21-week EMA has turned upward. The 50-week EMA has started to turn upward. The 200-day SMA is trading sideways. Regime for each time frame Daily time frame = High bullish momentum/ Approaching overbought Weekly time frame = Overbought Monthly time frame = Strong Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Access Global Shares & ETFs  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za Re-emerging strength following a multi-month base. (Euronext Amsterdam) Previous Post: European Financials: Attractive Valuations + Improving Technical Structure In September of last year (2024), I discussed European equities being inexpensive near it's all-time highs. This week, the Euro Stoxx 600 printed new all-time highs. European Financials (EUFN ETF) form part of this group and are trading at the same level (in USD term) as they did in 2010 and 2011. Look at that multi-year base. In addition, the sector trades at valuations that would require very little to go right to see a re-rating. In other words, the bar is low. Previous Post: European Equities: Inexpensive Near All-Time Highs Thursday, 26 September 2024 at 21h12 ETF: iShares Europe Ticker: IEV Trading at 52-week highs, but remains relatively inexpensive Current Price = $58.78 Medium term target = $68 The setup is invalidated below 54.00

Trade   JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Just over 4 years ago at 196c, we identified education group Stadio as a technical turnaround story. This past week, the share reached a multi-year high of 788c. The original, time-stamped slide is shown below. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Consumer Staples, Utilities & Real Estate are leading, with the highest percentage of constituents above their 20-day moving averages. The reason? Lower bond yields Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Global Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za At Friday's close, 57% of S&P 500 constituents were trading above their 200-day moving averages. This is neither excessively bullish, nor excessively bearish. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

For Clients Trading: AGL, BHP, GLN Trade Local & Global Instruments  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za THIS PAGE WILL BE UPDATED (TICKERS ADDED) AS THE ANALYST CONDUCTS THEIR RESEARCH. Anglo American Plc (AGL) BHP Group (BHG) Glencore Plc (GLN) Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that   are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action.

Trade the Top 40 Index with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Follow Up: down -2900 points. Chart is 'current' J200: Zoomed In J200: Zoomed Out - Most Recent Index Calls Previous Post (Thursday 20 February): Top 40 - Deteriorating Candle Structure Previous Post: Trading JSE Top 40 Index: Currently +7300 Points / Reduce The candle structure reflects short term distribution with an overbought range. At an index level: reduce any buy/long positions. The Top 40 is currently higher by 5000 points from our comment which warned against being aggressively short as well as the real-time price action model reading which stated the following: "The reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position (scroll down for original price action model reading at the Monday 13 January lows). *Note Published: Thursday, 13 February at 18h05.   Previous Post (Monday 13 January): JSE Top 40 Index: 200-Day Breached, But Caution On Pressing Shorts Too Hard (+ Price Action Model) Historical price action developments/trading setups have shown us that when a price has been in a downward trend, there is always a risk that the downward momentum slows, which can then be followed by the start of a 'base formation' or bullish reversal. Taking an ultra short term view, we are aware that the index has been in a downward trend, with ' high bullish momentum / approaching oversold ' being the current reading. For traders looking to enter short/sell positions, the current level may not be optimal. Why? One scenario is that the price could continue to trade lower in the following session (today, 14 January) which can be followed by a reclaim of the prior day lows and a bullish reversal. I know the popular saying is ' trade what you see ' however my goal as an analyst is to prepare you in order to recognize opportunities and risks, with various price action scenarios to consider . Bottom line: the index can trade lower in the short term, however, be careful to not press you shorts too aggressively around these level. Analyst's Price Action Model as of Monday 13 January at 13h55 Q: What is the overall trend of the JSE TOP 40 Index? A: The overall trend is bearish. This is indicated by the "Aggressive Selling" in both the medium and long-term price action readings. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The 7-day trend is also bearish, with high bearish momentum and an approaching oversold condition. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The 14-day trend is very bearish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: Yes, the reward-to-risk ratio is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position, but this is only for the short-term (1 to 10 trading days). Q: What is a potential scenario for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: Aggressive selling is underway therefore, traders should wait for lower time frames to stabilize before considering any action. Q: What is a potential scenario for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: Aggressive selling is underway however, traders should look for support at prior swing lows to capture minor rebounds. In summary: The JSE TOP 40 Index is currently in a bearish trend. While there is a short-term opportunity for a small buy/long position, aggressive selling is advised for the medium and long term. Traders should wait for lower time frames to stabilize before considering any action. JSE Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of 13h58 on Monday 12 January 2025 Previous Post (Sunday 12 January 2025): JSE Top 40 Index: Approaching It's 200-Day But Vulnerable To A Breach Update: Breached short term support Rally rejected into the declining 8-day EMA Trading below it's declining 21-day EMA Trading below it's 75-day EMA, which has started to turn lower Trading below it's 21-week EMA, which has started to turn lower Monthly time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Weak Daily time frame = Weak Above a gradually rising 50-week EMA Above a gradually rising 200-SMA SMA Analyst's Price Action Model Regime: Monthly, Weekly & Daily Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of the close on Friday 10 January 2025. Resistance and Support zones are subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. Previous Post: Update: Trading in a tight consolidation range Rejected into the declining 21-day EMA Rejected into the declining 75-day EMA Shifting to and consolidating below a flat 21-week EMA Deteriorating candle structure at short term support Above a rising 50-week EMA Above a rising 200-SMA SMA Previous Post: TRADING The JSE Top 40 Index On 27 September 2024, research highlighted the index trading in a short term overbought range, from which we subsequently saw a retracement and unwind from these overbought conditions. Over the 3 months, the index has traded in a sideways range, reflecting a period of distribution among several large and mid cap constituents. The following key developments are also noted: The price has shifted below it's 50-day EMA (the 50-day EMA has also lost it's upside momentum and is turning lower). The price is breaking below it's 21-week EMA - a level which previous held as support on retracements. The price continues to trade above it's 50-week EMA, which is sloping upwards. This is a positive development. The price continues to trade above it's 200-day SMA, which is sloping upwards. This is a positive development. The 50-week EMA and 200-day SMA are currently aligned. This range could act as a level of support on a further retracement. Do however note that the price has the ability to overshoot this range and test the swing low of 11 September at 72991. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital