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- 3x Shares: Overbought (Monthly Time Frame)
Trade JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Impala Platinum | Northam Platinum | Sibanye Stillwater
For Clients Trading: IMP, NPH & SSW Trade Local & Global Instruments with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za THIS PAGE WILL BE UPDATED (TICKERS ADDED) AS THE ANALYST CONDUCTS THEIR RESEARCH. Impala Platinum (IMP) Northam Platinum (NPH) Sibanye Stillwater (SSW) Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action.
- AngloGold Ashanti: Short Sellers Are Getting Paid
Trade AngloGold Ashanti with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za A substantial decline over the two weeks from the publication of our note which alerted traders to the deterioration in candle structure as well as the model reading. Also, in lie with the price action model reading and back toward the R530 lows! Previous Post (12 February): Trading Note: AngloGold Ashanti Preferred Strategies & Setups To Generate Cash Flow (Click To Enlarge) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading S&P 500 Index: Medium Term Model Reading Unfolding
Trade Global Indices with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za On 05 December we discussed the index, highlighting the risk of a medium term retracement as well as the live reading from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Model) which was as follows: (2 to 4 week time frame): "a possible bearish reversal following a very bullish move" and (5 to 8 week time frame): Aggressive buying underway, but overbought on the lower time frame. Expect a consolidation or a minor retracement". Our analysis coincided with the medium term top as the index retreated from 6098 to 5768 (-330 points or -5%). This was followed by a rebound however, the index has struggled to clear over the overhead resistance range and maintain it's position above 6098 for a sustained period. Over the course of this week, we saw broad-based selling pressure, with the index at multi-week lows. The only two sectors which saw safe-haven buying were Consumer Staples and Utilities, both of which have featured strongly on our screens prior to the note and which we published as buy candidates. Links as follows: https://www.unum.capital/post/iyk-etf + https://www.unum.capital/post/jxi-etf S&P 500 Index Chart (Current) Previous Post: S&P 500 Index: Risk of a Medium Term Retracement Thursday 05 December 2024 (Time: 21h49) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- U.S. Relative Sector Ratings: A Thousand Words!
Trade U.S. Stocks with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za *Note Prepared on Friday, 28 February (pre-market U.S. trading session). Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading Harmony Gold: Lower By Over 4600c (or -20%)
Trade Harmony Gold with Unum Capital To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Update: Currently lower by 4600c. The original note was published Monday evening (10 February ) in the note "Channel Check" - highlighting the potential resistance at the rising trend line. Scroll down. Previous Post (Monday 10 February): For HAR traders, an inflection point worth noting. HAR Daily Chart as of today's close. HAR Price Action Model as of today's close: Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- JSE Top 40 Index: Risk Communicated. Now Lower By 2300 Points
Trade the Top 40 Index with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Follow Up: down -2300 points. Chart is 'current' J200: Zoomed In J200: Zoomed Out - Most Recent Index Calls Previous Post (Thursday 20 February): Top 40 - Deteriorating Candle Structure Previous Post: Trading JSE Top 40 Index: Currently +7300 Points / Reduce The candle structure reflects short term distribution with an overbought range. At an index level: reduce any buy/long positions. The Top 40 is currently higher by 5000 points from our comment which warned against being aggressively short as well as the real-time price action model reading which stated the following: "The reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position (scroll down for original price action model reading at the Monday 13 January lows). *Note Published: Thursday, 13 February at 18h05. Previous Post (Monday 13 January): JSE Top 40 Index: 200-Day Breached, But Caution On Pressing Shorts Too Hard (+ Price Action Model) Historical price action developments/trading setups have shown us that when a price has been in a downward trend, there is always a risk that the downward momentum slows, which can then be followed by the start of a 'base formation' or bullish reversal. Taking an ultra short term view, we are aware that the index has been in a downward trend, with ' high bullish momentum / approaching oversold ' being the current reading. For traders looking to enter short/sell positions, the current level may not be optimal. Why? One scenario is that the price could continue to trade lower in the following session (today, 14 January) which can be followed by a reclaim of the prior day lows and a bullish reversal. I know the popular saying is ' trade what you see ' however my goal as an analyst is to prepare you in order to recognize opportunities and risks, with various price action scenarios to consider . Bottom line: the index can trade lower in the short term, however, be careful to not press you shorts too aggressively around these level. Analyst's Price Action Model as of Monday 13 January at 13h55 Q: What is the overall trend of the JSE TOP 40 Index? A: The overall trend is bearish. This is indicated by the "Aggressive Selling" in both the medium and long-term price action readings. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The 7-day trend is also bearish, with high bearish momentum and an approaching oversold condition. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The 14-day trend is very bearish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: Yes, the reward-to-risk ratio is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position, but this is only for the short-term (1 to 10 trading days). Q: What is a potential scenario for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: Aggressive selling is underway therefore, traders should wait for lower time frames to stabilize before considering any action. Q: What is a potential scenario for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: Aggressive selling is underway however, traders should look for support at prior swing lows to capture minor rebounds. In summary: The JSE TOP 40 Index is currently in a bearish trend. While there is a short-term opportunity for a small buy/long position, aggressive selling is advised for the medium and long term. Traders should wait for lower time frames to stabilize before considering any action. JSE Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of 13h58 on Monday 12 January 2025 Previous Post (Sunday 12 January 2025): JSE Top 40 Index: Approaching It's 200-Day But Vulnerable To A Breach Update: Breached short term support Rally rejected into the declining 8-day EMA Trading below it's declining 21-day EMA Trading below it's 75-day EMA, which has started to turn lower Trading below it's 21-week EMA, which has started to turn lower Monthly time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Weak Daily time frame = Weak Above a gradually rising 50-week EMA Above a gradually rising 200-SMA SMA Analyst's Price Action Model Regime: Monthly, Weekly & Daily Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of the close on Friday 10 January 2025. Resistance and Support zones are subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. Previous Post: Update: Trading in a tight consolidation range Rejected into the declining 21-day EMA Rejected into the declining 75-day EMA Shifting to and consolidating below a flat 21-week EMA Deteriorating candle structure at short term support Above a rising 50-week EMA Above a rising 200-SMA SMA Previous Post: TRADING The JSE Top 40 Index On 27 September 2024, research highlighted the index trading in a short term overbought range, from which we subsequently saw a retracement and unwind from these overbought conditions. Over the 3 months, the index has traded in a sideways range, reflecting a period of distribution among several large and mid cap constituents. The following key developments are also noted: The price has shifted below it's 50-day EMA (the 50-day EMA has also lost it's upside momentum and is turning lower). The price is breaking below it's 21-week EMA - a level which previous held as support on retracements. The price continues to trade above it's 50-week EMA, which is sloping upwards. This is a positive development. The price continues to trade above it's 200-day SMA, which is sloping upwards. This is a positive development. The 50-week EMA and 200-day SMA are currently aligned. This range could act as a level of support on a further retracement. Do however note that the price has the ability to overshoot this range and test the swing low of 11 September at 72991. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- iShares EAFE Value ETF (12x Trailing Earnings, 3.5% DY)
#EarlyAccess Access Global ETFs with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za In an expensive global equity market, this ETF has: Technical appealing + Sector appeal + Geographical appeal! Why EFV? 1. Exposure to a broad range of companies in Europe, Australia, Asia, and the Far East that are thought to be undervalued by the market 2. Targeted access to a specific category of EAFE stocks 3. Use to tilt an international stock allocation towards value stocks Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Spot Gold: Zooming Out | Long Term Chart
Trade Gold with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Key inflection point Previous Post (Thursday 25 February):Trading Spot Gold: Sellers Becoming Active Disclosure: This price action model was summarized using an A.I tool. Q: What is the overall trend of Spot Gold? A: The overall trend is bullish, but showing signs of consolidation and potential slowdown. We see a strong upside move in the long term, but with momentum slowing and sellers becoming active. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The current 7-day trend is strong. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The current 14-day trend is very bullish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: Yes, there is a potential opportunity for a short-term buy/long position. The model suggests waiting for a pullback to enter a long position. If the highs fail to hold, a short position back to the 8 or 21-EMA is suggested. Q: What is the outlook for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: The medium-term outlook suggests aggressive buying with a strategy to wait for pullbacks to enter. It also advises using the 8 and 21-EMA as potential support levels or areas to accumulate. Q: What is the outlook for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: The long-term outlook is a strong upside move, but with momentum slowing and sellers becoming active. This suggests a potential shift or consolidation phase in the longer term. In summary: Spot Gold (XAU/USD) is in a strong bullish trend in the short and medium term, but the long-term outlook shows signs of a potential slowdown and increased selling pressure. Traders should look for buying opportunities on pullbacks in the short and medium term, while being cautious of potential reversals in the longer term. The 8 and 21-EMA are highlighted as important levels to watch for potential support or entry points. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- JSE Relative Sector Ratings: Chemicals, Gold Miners, Banks & More
#EarlyAccess Trade JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za *Note Prepared on Thursday, 27 February (end of day). Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Now Above R70 (and 46% Higher), Don't Missed The Next Trade
#EarlyAccess Trade OUTsurance with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za OUTsurance: Trading +95% Above It's 200-Week SMA (Technically Extended Range) OUT is trading at 95% above it's 200-week SMA. This appears technically extended. The share exceed our previous buy/long target (from 4780c to the recent high above 7000c (+46%) - reached in December 2024. To view the original chart at 4780c, as published to clients of Unum Capital scroll down to the chart at the bottom of this page. Tuesday 19 November 2024 (Time: Pre-Market) Previous Post: 17 September 2024 Real-Time: 09h40 Previous Post Real-Time: 09h41 Ticker: OUT High Bullish Momentum Regime Approaching Measured Move Target Reduce Into Strength Original view, as published to clients Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Sibanye Stillwater: Long Term Cycle Ready To Unfold?
#EarlyAccess Trade Sibanye Stillwater with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za SSW Monthly Chart - as of Thursday 27 February at 13h13 Upper Panel: SSW Relative To JSE Top 40 Index (Weekly Chart) - as of Thursday 27 February at 13h10 Lower Panel: Distance vs 200-Week SMA. The ratio is trading 67% below it's 200-week, which is an extreme disconnect from the long term average. In July we discussed a potential scenario for the share, with the potential path being a drop down to a potential range 1264c to 1353c before a potential rally off the long term channel support. The share dropped to 1400c which was followed by a rally to 2300c. Taking a step back, are we seeing the long term cycle unfolding? The slide below is from report: "Active Trading Plan: Monday 29 July 2024". Related Post: Sibanye Stillwater: Right Reading, Right Time Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital












