Search this site

Trade   Mondi Plc   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za This opportunity was identified manually, as well as via the price action model (scroll down for the time-stamped readings) Edited: Friday 14 February. Currently running +15% Strong/improving candle structure. Trading at a 13-week high. Consider banking partial profits (full target is 29700c. Now 28758c) As always, traders could consider the following if/when the prices approaches the target: bank/take profit, partially scale out, adjust the stop-loss to protect profits. MNP Daily Chart as of Friday 31 January at 11h23 Price Action Model Buy Reading: Previous Day's Closing Comment (Time-Stamped, EOD 12-Nov) Previous Post: Trade Alert: Mondi Plc Wednesday 13 November 2024 (Time: 11h53) Share Code: MNP Below is the TEXT as per the accompanying image: HIGH RISK BUY IDEA therefore small-than-average position sizes may apply. The share has been sold off aggressively and is in a high bearish momentum regime while approaching oversold. I do not think that THIS is the exact low (i.e. I am expecting lower levels) however, this may be a RANGE to starting building a buy/long position with the expectation that a base starts to form over the near term followed by a potential bullish reversal. Buy at current levels or lower (traders could consider starting with a 1/3 of the position). As always, traders could consider the following if/when the prices approaches the target: bank/take profit, partially scale out, adjust the stop-loss to protect profits. Time stop: 09 May 2025. Trading Levels Suggested Entry: 26768c or better/lower (this was the price at the time of writing) Target: 29700c Stop-loss: 25400 MNP's Model Reading as of 11h46 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Naspers   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za NPN blasting through levels, adding 26% over 4 weeks , boosted by the Chinese technology sector. The initial view informed by both manual analysis as well as automated readings. As highlighted in this same note (scroll down): "... expect a small rebound ' - *time-stamped price action model reading at the swing lows of 13 January. The price action model (TTG) alerted to the possibility of a small rebound (scroll down to see previous note + time-stamped reading). The share is now higher by 6.4%. Now trading into the next best probability resistance range (see chart). Previous Post (Sunday 26 January): Trading Naspers: Cash Flow For Active Traders (+Price Action Model Reading) On Monday 13 January at 15h08, we highlighted Naspers shares trading in an oversold range relative to the JSE Top 40 Index. Since then, the share has rallied by R159 , generating cash flow for traders who took advantage of the aforementioned oversold conditions. The model reading for the 3x time frames, as of Friday's close, is as follows: Analyst's Price Action Model as of the close on Friday 24 January. Naspers: next best probability short term resistance at the upside overshoot of the declining 21-day EMA. Chart as of the close on Friday 24 January. Previous Post: Relative The Top 40, Naspers Is Trading In A Short Term Oversold Range (Monday 13 January) at 15h08 NPN Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of Monday 15h08 Analyst's price Action Model Reading on Monday 13 January at 15h08 - "Expect a small rebound" Previous Post: Naspers: Well Done, Short Sellers (Tuesday 07 January) Naspers: The share has fallen sharpy, in line with the model reading (published 05 January) which showed that the declining 8/21-EMA could be used as a level into which to initiate short/sell positions. On the back of geopolitical company-related developments (China/military etc.), the share declined by over 9%, reached it's rising 50-week moving average and it's 200-day simple moving average. The candle structure remains poor, with potential for further weakness. For traders looking to re-enter, it would be best to wait until there is stabilization on the lower time frames (1-hour and 4-hour etc.). The pullback is also in line with the Tactical Trading Guide seen at the peak on 02 October (peak), which warned traders that the reward-to-risk was unappealing and that a consolidation and pullback can be expected. See the time-stamped reading below: Previous Post: Naspers Price and Trend Analysis (Sunday, 05 January 2025) Price Action Model with 3x Time Frames AI-Assisted Summary of the above Price Action Model Overall, the price action model suggests a bearish short-term trend with a potential for bullish momentum in the medium and long term. Traders should be cautious in the short term and look for opportunities to sell on rebounds. In the medium and long term, they should look for minor support levels to buy into for a potential rebound. Price Chart With Moving Average Trends Technical Trend Ratings (Monthly, Weekly & Daily) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Prosus N.V  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za Previous Post: Trading Prosus Long/Short Our tools and insights help traders to manage risk and uncover opportunity. The price action model for JSE-listed Prosus is a real-time example of such. Short (Sell - 02 October 2024): Time-Stamped Model Warning on Unattractive Reward-to-Risk. Long (Buy 10 January 2025): Time-Stamped Model Alerting To Opportunity: "Look for a further decline /dip before a minor rebound"   Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Discovery Ltd  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za I'll be the first to admit that I only saw this (time-stamped) model reading on Thursday evening and not on Wednesday evening when it was released. Of course, on Tuesday evening the model was telling us that the buying was aggressive and that we should not chase the share off the massive rebound. Nevertheless, this has been a great share for clients who can trade on both the long (buy) and sell (short) side. If you've been following our commentary, you'll know we've discussed both directions with good timing. Well done to clients who have been involved. Previous Post: Trading Discovery: R18 to R20 Rally Off Note + Price Action Model Generating Cash Flow Print above R196 today. Note: The share bottomed on 28 January. The previous evening, the price action model alerted traders that the reward-to-risk had become attractive for a buy/long position , from which we have seen a rally from R176 to R196. Well done to traders who may have capitalized on the opportunity (both on the short and then long side). Previous Post: Trading Discovery: Long/Short Now rebounding, in line with my previous post (28 January) as well as the prior day (27 January) price action model reading. Longs now trading 600c higher! (Traded above R186 today, from R178) __________________________________________________________________________________ Previous Post (Tuesday 28 January): Trading Discovery: R20 Lower, Consider Covering Short Position For clients who may be short (i.e. have sold at higher levels), consider partially covering your short positions. FURTHER UPDATE as of Tuesday 28 January (09h11): Now trading 2000c lower. The move is in line with our comments on 12 December, 02 January and then again on 15 January. Previous Post: Discovery Ltd: Relative Distribution Phase + MACD Bearish Crossover Points to note (also stated on the chart) Candle structure: momentum being lost + relative distribution MACD negative crossover Previous Post: DISCOVERY Extended Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index The chart reflects a ratio of of DSY relative to the JSE Top 40 Index where the distance versus the 40-week simple moving average reflects an extended level (+29% in December 2024). Note the previous extension coinciding with bearish reversal, or at best, the start of period of consolidation. Previous Post: DISCOVERY Pending Bearish MACD Crossover + Most Overbought Reading in +10 Years Thursday 12 December 2024 (Time: Pre-Market) DSY Discovery Holdings Notes on the slide below Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade the Top 40 Index with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za The candle structure reflects short term distribution with an overbought range. At an index level: reduce any buy/long positions. The Top 40 is currently higher by 5000 points from our comment which warned against being aggressively short as well as the real-time price action model reading which stated the following: "The reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position (scroll down for original price action model reading at the Monday 13 January lows). *Note Published: Thursday, 13 February at 18h05.   Previous Post (Monday 13 January): JSE Top 40 Index: 200-Day Breached, But Caution On Pressing Shorts Too Hard (+ Price Action Model) Historical price action developments/trading setups have shown us that when a price has been in a downward trend, there is always a risk that the downward momentum slows, which can then be followed by the start of a 'base formation' or bullish reversal. Taking an ultra short term view, we are aware that the index has been in a downward trend, with ' high bullish momentum / approaching oversold ' being the current reading. For traders looking to enter short/sell positions, the current level may not be optimal. Why? One scenario is that the price could continue to trade lower in the following session (today, 14 January) which can be followed by a reclaim of the prior day lows and a bullish reversal. I know the popular saying is ' trade what you see ' however my goal as an analyst is to prepare you in order to recognize opportunities and risks, with various price action scenarios to consider . Bottom line: the index can trade lower in the short term, however, be careful to not press you shorts too aggressively around these level. Analyst's Price Action Model as of Monday 13 January at 13h55 Q: What is the overall trend of the JSE TOP 40 Index? A: The overall trend is bearish. This is indicated by the "Aggressive Selling" in both the medium and long-term price action readings. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The 7-day trend is also bearish, with high bearish momentum and an approaching oversold condition. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The 14-day trend is very bearish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: Yes, the reward-to-risk ratio is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position, but this is only for the short-term (1 to 10 trading days). Q: What is a potential scenario for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: Aggressive selling is underway therefore, traders should wait for lower time frames to stabilize before considering any action. Q: What is a potential scenario for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: Aggressive selling is underway however, traders should look for support at prior swing lows to capture minor rebounds. In summary: The JSE TOP 40 Index is currently in a bearish trend. While there is a short-term opportunity for a small buy/long position, aggressive selling is advised for the medium and long term. Traders should wait for lower time frames to stabilize before considering any action. JSE Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of 13h58 on Monday 12 January 2025 Previous Post (Sunday 12 January 2025): JSE Top 40 Index: Approaching It's 200-Day But Vulnerable To A Breach Update: Breached short term support Rally rejected into the declining 8-day EMA Trading below it's declining 21-day EMA Trading below it's 75-day EMA, which has started to turn lower Trading below it's 21-week EMA, which has started to turn lower Monthly time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Weak Daily time frame = Weak Above a gradually rising 50-week EMA Above a gradually rising 200-SMA SMA Analyst's Price Action Model Regime: Monthly, Weekly & Daily Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of the close on Friday 10 January 2025. Resistance and Support zones are subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. Previous Post: Update: Trading in a tight consolidation range Rejected into the declining 21-day EMA Rejected into the declining 75-day EMA Shifting to and consolidating below a flat 21-week EMA Deteriorating candle structure at short term support Above a rising 50-week EMA Above a rising 200-SMA SMA Previous Post: TRADING The JSE Top 40 Index On 27 September 2024, research highlighted the index trading in a short term overbought range, from which we subsequently saw a retracement and unwind from these overbought conditions. Over the 3 months, the index has traded in a sideways range, reflecting a period of distribution among several large and mid cap constituents. The following key developments are also noted: The price has shifted below it's 50-day EMA (the 50-day EMA has also lost it's upside momentum and is turning lower). The price is breaking below it's 21-week EMA - a level which previous held as support on retracements. The price continues to trade above it's 50-week EMA, which is sloping upwards. This is a positive development. The price continues to trade above it's 200-day SMA, which is sloping upwards. This is a positive development. The 50-week EMA and 200-day SMA are currently aligned. This range could act as a level of support on a further retracement. Do however note that the price has the ability to overshoot this range and test the swing low of 11 September at 72991. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade MTN Group  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za We plotted thus level on 27 January, which has been a level the share has struggled to clear. Medium term term momentum in tact, however, a slight (and early) deterioration in candle structure. For ultra short term traders looking for cash flow, this has been a great level to sell into. Also in line with the price action model at the time (scroll down). *Note Published: Thursday, 13 February at 16h33. ______________________________________________________________________________ Previous Post: Trading MTN Group: Short Sellers Generating Cash This has been a great opportunity on both the long (scrolls further down) and in recent days became extremely overbought. The model (on Monday 27 January) alerting to a poor upside reward-to-risk and a potential ultra short term short/sell opportunity. MTN Trading Into The Re-Entry Sell Range, With A Sharp Reversal Today (-4,6%) Previous Post (Monday 27 January): Trading MTN Group: Upward Momentum Slowing + Poor Buy/Long Reward-To-Risk Previous Post: Strategy Alert: MTN Group (Thursday 23 January) MTN Daily Chart as of Thursday 23 January at 15h29 Previous Post: MTN Group +R25 Rally / Now Short Term Overbought / Updated Model Reading Analyst Price Action Model as of Tuesday 21 January at 09h15 Model Summary: The MTN GROUP stock is currently in a bullish trend, but the 7-day trend is overbought. Traders are advised to not chase the price and look for opportunities to short-sell if the price fails to hold key levels. The medium-term outlook is also bullish with aggressive buying, but caution is advised against chasing the price. The long-term outlook is bullish with a strong attempt at a bullish reversal. Current 7-Day Trend: Overbought. Current 14-Day Trend: Bullish. Short-Term Buy/Long Position Opportunity? No. Do not chase the price. If the price fails to hold the highs, the 8-EMA may be a short-sell target. Medium-Term Outlook (2 to 4 Weeks): The medium-term outlook is aggressive buying but do not chase. Look for an opportunity to short-sell if the price fails to hold prior session range highs back to the 8-EMA. Long-Term Outlook (5 to 8 Weeks): The long-term outlook is bullish. There is a strong attempt at a bullish reversal following a consolidation phase. Previous Post: Wednesday 27 November 2024 (15h24) MTN GROUP R10 Lower + New Levels of Interest + Falling Wedge Structure The share us R10 lower, with the model having alerted traders to monitor for a failure to hold the highs. Take note of this falling wedge structure on the share Previous Post: 18 September (Real-Time: 13h49) Ticker: MTN Technical Condition and Price Action Probability Daily Chart Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Global Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Rounding bottom + gap and go. Slightly lower after the readings, but also giving traders an opportunity to build a position. Nice gap today! Previous Post: Global Ideas: Nestle Thursday 07 November 2024 Time Published: 12h54 Share: Nestle Exchange: Swiss Market Index (SMI) Ticker: NESN Sector: Consumer Non-Durables / Food Tactical Trading Guide 3x Time Frame Reading: Daily Price Chart Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Global Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za MBG - 5-month highs +15% BMW +18% Previous Post: EUROPEAN AUTOS: Offering Value? Thursday 07 November 2024 Time Published: 13h23 Share(s): BMW and Mercedes Benz Exchange: German DAX (DAX) Ticker: BMW and MBG Sector: Automobiles BMW Tactical Trading Guide 3x Time Frame Reading: Daily Price Chart MBG   Tactical Trading Guide 3x Time Frame Reading: Daily Price Chart Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Global Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Previous Post: Looking To Benefit From The Data Centre Boom? Consider Dax-Listed Siemens https://www.unum.capital/post/siemens-data-centre-boom Tuesday 03 December 2024 (Time: 08h25) Following it's multi-month consolidation, strong price action is developing below resistance A break above Є191.00 targets Є220.00 Stop-loss is a weekly close below $182.00 The insight below is AI-assisted Siemens is actively involved in the data center boom, both through its financing solutions and its technological advancements. Here's a breakdown of Siemens' role in the data center industry:   Financing Solutions Siemens Financial Services (SFS) provides financing solutions for data center projects, helping businesses acquire the necessary infrastructure and technology.   SFS has financed several large-scale data center projects, including a 16 MW greenfield data center in Offenbach am Main, Germany.   Technological Advancements Siemens Smart Infrastructure develops innovative solutions for data center power, cooling, and security systems.   Siemens' technology helps data centers achieve greater energy efficiency, reliability, and sustainability.   Siemens is investing in expanding its US manufacturing capabilities for data center equipment, including a new $150 million facility in Fort Worth, Texas.  Overall, Siemens is a key player in the data center industry, providing both financial and technological solutions to support the growing demand for data center capacity.   Additional Insights from Siemens: The data center industry is experiencing explosive growth due to the increasing reliance on cloud computing and digital services.   Data centers are becoming critical infrastructure for businesses of all sizes.   Siemens is committed to helping data centers meet the challenges of the future by providing innovative solutions that are both efficient and sustainable. On 10 January, clients of Unum Capital were alerted to an opportunity in Digital Realty Trust (DLR) a major beneficiary of the growth in artificial intelligence and data centre infrastructure

Trade TFG and other JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Our call was to consider partially covering short sell positions (previous warning on sector risk). The bullish reversal is in line with Tuesday morning's pre-market price action model reading. Scroll down for the original price action model reading. At this morning's high, the share traded +7.8%. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital Previous Post (Tuesday, 04 February): Trading Foschini: Approaching Oversold / Partially Cover Short Positions Sector warning on 07 January, with TFG declining from R172 to R138. Now traders should consider partially covering short/sell positions . The price action model points to to oversold conditions, potential for further decline, however, this may be followed by a base, then a rebound. Previous Post (Sunday 26 January): Trading: TFG Short sellers (traders position for a move lower) are benefitting from the share price decline. TFG is down by 15% from R172, reaching a level just below R146 on Friday (trading update released). If you are short (have been positioned for a price decline), then consider covering some that position). The bearish move is in line with our view that the bullish momentum for the Consumer Discretionary sector is waning. Current Model Reading: Analyst's Price Action Model Reading Previous Post (07 January): JSE Consumer Discretionary: Relative To The Top 40, Bullish Momentum Is Waning Note the bearish MACD crossover and histogram which previously warned around a pullback. Equally-weighted index includes (TFG, MRP, TRU, WHL) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za BTI declining by over 7.45% today, in line with previous note i.e. (7 February) 2x Shares: Sellers Becoming Active + Extended vs VWAP) Previous Post: (7 February) 2x Shares: Sellers Becoming Active + Extended vs VWAP Short term sellers becoming active. BTI - British American Tobacco (yellow sloping line = quarterly VWAP) VOD - Vodacom Group (yellow sloping line = quarterly VWAP) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   SOL with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Yesterday the share traded as high at 8828c, which was +17% from the note. Also in line with the LIVE price action model reading on Monday morning at 09h21. Scroll down to view the 2x previous posts. Trading Sasol (Monday 10 February): Worth Noting - Above Average Volume Note added Monday morning (10-Feb) just after the open. By the close, the following is noted: 3rd highest volume day for volume in the last 18 months. Trading Sasol: Zooming Out (Monday 10 February) Clients of Unum Capital had access to these premium views which helped to manage risk. The share has since declined from R120 to R76. Below is the current price action model reading: Zooming Out: Approaching A Key Level (Weekly Chart): Previous Post: Avoid: Large Cap Weekly Breakdown - Monday, 23 September 2024 PREMIUM POST Pre-Market Poor, absolute and relative price trend Poor, absolute and relative candle structure Trading below it's declining 200-day EMA Each rally is being sold Avoid until price action improves! Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital