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  • Trading Netcare: Running +6%

    Trade   Netcare   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Rebound from yesterday's buy re-entry range and in line with model reading. NTC Daily Chart as of Wednesday 05 February at 12h15 (Current) Previous Post (Tuesday, 04 February): Trading Netcare: Probability of a Rebound Close to it's buy re-entry range / Model pointing to oversold & potential for a slowdown in bearish momentum, a base, then a rebound. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Discovery: Long/Short

    Trade Discovery Ltd  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Now rebounding, in line with my previous post (28 January) as well as the prior day (27 January) price action model reading. Longs now trading 600c higher! (Traded above R186 today, from R178) __________________________________________________________________________________ Previous Post (Tuesday 28 January): Trading Discovery: R20 Lower, Consider Covering Short Position For clients who may be short (i.e. have sold at higher levels), consider partially covering your short positions. FURTHER UPDATE as of Tuesday 28 January (09h11): Now trading 2000c lower. The move is in line with our comments on 12 December, 02 January and then again on 15 January. Previous Post: Discovery Ltd: Relative Distribution Phase + MACD Bearish Crossover Points to note (also stated on the chart) Candle structure: momentum being lost + relative distribution MACD negative crossover Previous Post: DISCOVERY Extended Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index The chart reflects a ratio of of DSY relative to the JSE Top 40 Index where the distance versus the 40-week simple moving average reflects an extended level (+29% in December 2024). Note the previous extension coinciding with bearish reversal, or at best, the start of period of consolidation. Previous Post: DISCOVERY Pending Bearish MACD Crossover + Most Overbought Reading in +10 Years Thursday 12 December 2024 (Time: Pre-Market) DSY Discovery Holdings Notes on the slide below Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Old Mutual: Running +6%

    Trade Old Mutual  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za __________________________________________________________________________________ Previous Post : OLD MUTUAL: Oversold + Approaching Prior Swing Low Analyst's Price Action Model at 10h24 Q: What is the overall trend of Old Mutual? A: The overall trend of Old Mutual appears to be weak, with selling pressure evident. However, there is a probability of a small rebound. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The current 7-day trend for Old Mutual is oversold. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The current 14-day trend for Old Mutual is very bearish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: Yes, the reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position. Q: What is the advice for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: For the medium term, the advice is to wait for lower time frames to stabilize before taking any aggressive selling action. Q: What is the advice for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: The share has been weak however, there is a possibility of a small rebound. Summary: The Old Mutual price action model indicates a weak overall trend with oversold and very bearish short-term trends. Despite this, there's a potential opportunity for a small buy/long position due to the improving reward-to-risk ratio. For the medium term, it's recommended to wait for lower time frames to stabilize before aggressive selling. In the long term, the share has been weak however, there is a possibility of a small rebound. OMU Daily Chart as of Wednesday 15 January at 10h31 Previous Post: OLD MUTUAL Discount Relative To Sector Peers + Emerging From A Technical Base The most appropriate metric to value insurers is 'price to embedded value'. One could also consider price to book, price to earnings and dividend yield. Thursday 05 December 2024 (Time: 10h52) The most appropriate metric to value insurers is 'price to embedded value'. One could also consider price to book, price to earnings and dividend yield. Relative to it's peer group OMU is trading at a discount. OMU Price to Book Value (1.01x) vs SLM at 2.02x and MTM at 1.46x OMU Price to Earnings Ratio (6.5x) vs SLM at 11.9x and MTM at 10.3x OMU Dividend Yield (6.3%) vs SLM at 4.4x and MTM at 4.05x OMU has previously been discussed in the following posts: https://www.unum.capital/post/old-mutual-similar-to-momentum-metropolitan-thursday-01-august-2024 https://www.unum.capital/post/zooming-out-5-monthly-charts-thursday-01-august-2024 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Richemont: Model Reading Points To Unfavorable Reward-To-Risk

    Trade Richemont   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za CFR Daily Chart as of Wednesday 05 February at 08h52 Previous Post: Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index, The Share Is Approaching Overbought The chart below highlights the relative/ratio charts price distance versus it's medium term 75-day EMA. Previous Post: Richemont: Sharp Bullish Reversal, In Line With Trading Comment & Model Reading The comment below is an extract from our note on Richemont, dated 26 November 2024. "While it the trend is down and the fundamental outlook is bearish, it may be worthwhile to keep an open mind for a potential change of trend following this multi-month consolidation" - Lester Davids, 26-Nov-2024. The chart below highlights the share price development since: CFR chart as of Thursday 16 January at 09h16 You may also recall the end of day model reading (26-Nov) stating the following: "Attempting a rebound following a downward trend. The share may consolidate further before continuing, higher" . The share has since risen by 34%. Previous Post: Tuesday 26 November 2024 (Time Published: 06h09) The current price trend (down) reflects the automatic price action reading which clearly states the share is weak (ST & MT) while the 8-week and 21-week EMA may act as resistance ranges on any short term rally. The fundamental impact on price is known, with the impact of the Chinese slowdown having filtered through to almost all global luxury peers, resulting in muted growth prospects which has caused market participants to sell down the shares. The share was previous a short/sell idea on 07 June when it traded into extreme short term overbought territory at a high of R3194 before retreating by 27% to it's recent low of R2309. While it the trend is fundamental outlook is bearish and the price is trending down, it may be worthwhile to keep an open mind for a potential change of trend following this multi-month consolidation . What do we need to see? Strong price action with volume would be an early indicator that the market's sentiment toward the share is starting to change + clear/reclaiming the downward trend line in place since the recent peak of 07 June 2024. View as of Thursday 21 November at 10h52. Previous Post: Richemont Is Retreating In Line With Model Reading - Wednesday, 18 September 2024 Real-Time: 10h45 Ticker: CFR Currently lower by R415 or 15.4% Potential target is the unfilled gap at ~R2380 Previous Post (22 August 2024) • REAL-TIME: 15h30 ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that   are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which   is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis for any tradeable instrument across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. The tool helps to determine and shed light on the some of the following: Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position? Whether a share is weak or if aggressive buying is underway Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Silver (XAG/USD)

    Trade   Silver   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Continuation Buy: Looking to emerge from a multi-month base . Technical Condition and Price Action Probability Daily Chart XAGUSD Daily Chart as of Wednesday 05 February at 08h12 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading CrowdStrike: Above $400, (+76% In 6 Months)

    Trade   Global Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Share Code: CRWD Sector: Cybersecurity In fact, the recent high was $411 on 28 January 2025. No, I did not catch the exact bottom. It's not about that, it's about assessing reward-to-risk and weighing the probability of outcomes. Well done to clients who took capitalized on the opportunity.   Original Post at $229, Published Here On 30 July:   https://www.unum.capital/post/u-s-trading-session-crowdstrike-holdings-crwd-here-s-what-the-data-says-tuesday-30-july-2024 To trade global equities, you will need an offshore account. To get started, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk today. E-MAIL: tradingdesk@unum.co.za| CALL:011 384 2923 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital Previous Post: CrowdStrike: Strong Rebound Off Tactical Trigger - Wednesday, 21 August 2024 Real-Time: 21h35 Ticker: CRWD Short Term Traders Could Look To Take Profit Real-Time: 18h46 Amidst the sharp sell-off, here's what the data says: ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that   are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which   is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis for any tradeable instrument across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. The tool helps to determine and shed light on the some of the following: Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position? Whether a share is weak or if aggressive buying is underway Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Woolworths: Signs of Institutional Accumulation? / Also +400c

    Trade Woolworths  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Strong rebound off it's first swing low, adding over +400c by the close. A great opportunity for short term traders. Scroll down to see my previous post highlighting the level. For the past two days (Monday and Tuesday) I have noticed a consistent print of lots of 130 shares on the tape (from the open of the trading session). Are these signs of institutional accumulation? (scroll down for screenshots). Do you see what I see? Previous Post (Tuesday 21 January): Woolworths: Candle Structure Mixed, But This Pattern Sparks My (Early) Interest Technical Pattern: Falling Wedge (Bullish/Positive) Trend: Downward Candle Structure: Mixed (attempting to stabilize in the short term). Required: Improved candle structure (i.e. possibly an igniting bar that would alert traders to 'take note'). WHL Daily Chart as of Tuesday 21 January at 15h10 Analyst's Price Action Model as of Tuesday 21 January at 15h10 Previous Post (09 January): Woolworths: Price & Trend Analysis Analyst's Price Action Mode With Assessment For 3x Time Frames Overview: When we look at the short-term price action over the last 7 days, we see a clear weakness. This is confirmed by the 14-day trend, which shows aggressive selling. Essentially, the price has been steadily declining over the past two weeks. Medium Term Outlook: The medium-term picture is still bearish, but with a caveat. We're seeing persistent weakness, but there's a glimmer of hope. If the price can reclaim the prior session's lows, it could signal a potential bullish reversal. However, we need to monitor this closely on lower time frames to confirm any such move. Long-Term Perspective: The long-term trend is also bearish. We need to wait for the price to stabilize on the lower time frames before we can reassess. Until then, the outlook remains cautious. WHL is facing headwinds across all time frames. What should investors be watching for? Investors should keep a close eye on the price action on lower time frames. If we see a sustained break above the prior session's lows, it could signal a potential shift in the trend. However, until then, caution is warranted. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading: Uber Technologies, Now +14.5%

    Trade   Global Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Original idea was derived through manual search with support from the price action model (scroll down to see). Upcoming event risk: Earnings on Wednesday 05 February. If you want to avoid potential volatility, you could consider reduce your buy/long position. Previous Post: Thursday 12 December 2024 (09h07 / South African Time) Company Names: Uber Technologies Share Code: UBER Last Close: $61.18 The setup in Uber is similar to what we previous saw in CrowdStrike (link to post below): https://www.unum.capital/post/crowdstrike-reaches-350-a-gain-of-52-from-the-model-buy-reading The share has retreated from it's recent highs, is approaching an oversold range which is automatically triggering buy readings on the price model. While I do not expect the current price to be the exact lows, the share is reaching a range at which traders could consider a buy/long position . The bull, base and bear cases are shown on the chart and reflect potential price paths over the short to medium term. Source: Yahoo Finance Source: Lester Davids Source: Lester Davids / TradingView Recent Earnings: A 220% Surprise vs expectations Source: Trading View Consensus Price Targets Source: TradingView AI-Assisted Insights Uber's growth is driven by a combination of factors across its various business segments: 1. Mobility (Ride-hailing): Expanding Global Reach:  Uber continues to enter new markets and expand its service in existing ones, increasing its potential customer base. Diversification of Services:  Beyond basic rides, Uber offers options like UberX, UberPool, UberXL, Uber Black, and Uber Green, catering to different needs and budgets. Technological Advancements:  Investments in technology like AI-powered routing, surge pricing optimization, and fraud detection enhance efficiency and user experience. Partnerships:  Collaborations with public transportation systems and other mobility providers create a more integrated and convenient travel experience. 2. Delivery (Uber Eats): Growing Demand for Food Delivery:  The increasing popularity of food delivery services, driven by convenience and changing consumer habits, fuels Uber Eats' growth. Expanding Merchant Network:  Uber Eats continuously adds new restaurants and businesses to its platform, offering more choices to customers. Delivery Speed and Reliability:  Investments in logistics and delivery infrastructure help ensure faster and more reliable deliveries, enhancing customer satisfaction. New Service Offerings:  Expanding into grocery delivery, prescription delivery, and other on-demand services broadens Uber Eats' reach and revenue streams. 3. Freight: Supply Chain Disruptions:  The ongoing global supply chain challenges create opportunities for Uber Freight to provide more efficient and reliable transportation solutions. Technology-Enabled Solutions:  Uber Freight's platform leverages technology to match shippers with carriers, optimize routes, and streamline the freight booking process. Growing E-commerce:  The rise of e-commerce fuels demand for efficient and cost-effective freight transportation. 4. Other Bets: Autonomous Vehicles:  Uber's investments in self-driving technology have the potential to revolutionize transportation in the long term. Micromobility:  Services like Uber Bike and Uber Scooter offer alternative transportation options, catering to urban commuters and expanding Uber's market reach. Financial Services:  Uber's foray into financial services, including payment processing and credit products, provides additional revenue streams and enhances the user experience. Overall, Uber's growth is driven by its ability to adapt to changing market dynamics, leverage technology to improve its services, and expand its offerings to meet the evolving needs of its customers. The setup in Uber is similar to what we previous saw in CrowdStrike (link to post below): https://www.unum.capital/post/crowdstrike-reaches-350-a-gain-of-52-from-the-model-buy-reading Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • During The Last Session, Buyers & Sellers Were Most Aggressive In These Shares

    DOMINANT BUYING FROM OPEN TO CLOSE (DAILY) DOMINANT SELLING FROM OPEN TO CLOSE (DAILY) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital (Published end of day on Monday, 03 February 2025)

  • Trading: Anglo American Platinum / Nedbank / Vodacom

    Trade   JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za For clients involved in these names, the price action model readings may be relevant: *Snapshots as of Tuesday afternoon trade. Anglo American Platinum (AMS) Nedbank Group (NED) Vodacom Group (VOD) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • 2x Shares: Oversold (Daily Time Frame)

    Trade JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Screen as of Tuesday 04 February 2025 at 16h51 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • 7x Shares: Overbought (Daily Time Frame)

    Trade JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Screen as of Tuesday 04 February 2025 at 16h48 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

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