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Trade JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Screen as of Monday 03 February 2025 at 10h44 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade FX: USD/ZAR  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za Support & Rebound Off Mid Point (R18.29) Re-Entry Buy Range (R18.23 to R18.36). Reached a high of R19.03 in early Monday trade. USD/ZAR Daily Chart as of 10h29 Previous Post: USD/ZAR The 50/75-EMA Range (R18.23 to R18.36) Is A Best Probability Support Zone Analyst Price Action Model as of Monday 20 January at 18h56 Overall Trend: Long Term: Consolidating Within an Upward Trend. The 8-EMA Has Been Breached, Use The 21-EMA (Weekly) As a Potential Buy Range. Short-Term Trends: 7-Day Trend: Weak 14-Day Trend: Weak Within A Sideways Consolidation Rangebound Short-Term Trading Opportunities: No explicit short-term buy/long position opportunities are mentioned. The focus is on the long-term trend and using moving averages for potential buy ranges. Medium-Term Outlook (2 to 4 weeks) : No reading available. Long-Term Outlook (5 to 8 weeks): Consolidating Within an Upward Trend. The 8-EMA Has Been Breached, Use The 21-EMA As a Potential Buy Range. In Summary: The USD/ZAR pair is currently in a long-term uptrend with recent consolidation. While the short-term trends are weak, the long-term outlook suggests a potential buy opportunity using the 21-EMA (weekly) as a reference point. Previous Post (19 January): USD/ZAR Bearish Reversal In Line With Model Reading (R19.21 to R18.63) Last week, before trading commenced in Asia, our key view around the Rand was that the USDZAR pair was approaching short term overbought conditions and that any failure to hold the range highs could result in a bearish reversal from the overbought regime. On Monday, the pair traded above the previous session (Friday) highs before developing a long upper tail which signaled an exhaustion of the bullish momentum. From above R19.21, the pair reached a low of R18.63 before midday on Friday , breaching it's 8-day EMA but remaining above it's rising 21-day EMA. USDZAR Daily Chart as of Friday 17 January at 14h31 In case you may have missed the previous note, please scroll down. Previous Post: Before You Trade USD/ZAR, Read This (12 January) Analyst's Price Action Model What is the overall trend for USD/ZAR? The overall trend for USD/ZAR is bullish across all timeframes. What is the short-term (1 to 10 days) price action reading? The short-term price action is very strong and bullish. Buyers are in control, but it's advised not to chase the price. If the price fails to hold the highs, the 8-EMA could be a short-sell target. What is the medium-term (2 to 4 weeks) price action reading? The medium-term price action is also very strong and bullish. Buyers are in control, but again, it's advised not to chase the price. If the price fails to hold the highs, the 8-EMA could be a short-sell target. What is the long-term (5 to 8 weeks) price action reading? The long-term price action is showing aggressive buying underway. However, it's advised not to chase the price. Look for an opportunity to short-sell back to the 8-EMA if the price fails to hold prior session range highs. In summary, the USD/ZAR is in a strong uptrend across all timeframes. Traders should be cautious and avoid chasing the price. Short-selling opportunities may arise if the price fails to hold key levels or becomes extended vs key moving averages. Points To Ponder: The pair is trading at an extended level above it's 75-day exponential moving average. Although extended, it is not extreme compared to historical distance readings. The pair is above a rising 8-day EMA. The pair is above a rising 21-day EMA. The 75-day EMA has turned upward. The 21-week EMA has turned upward. The 50-week EMA has started to turn upward. The 200-day SMA is trading sideways. Regime for each time frame Daily time frame = High bullish momentum/ Approaching overbought Weekly time frame = Overbought Monthly time frame = Strong Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   JSE Banks   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Price Action Model Readings as of Friday's close On 10 December, our note was titled: JSE Banks Are Overbought On A Relative Basis. Consider Rotating Out. https://www.unum.capital/post/jse-banks-are-overbought-on-a-relative-basis-consider-rotating-out Since then the group has performed as follows: Price Action Model Readings as of Friday's close: Absa Group Related Post: Trading Absa: R10 Higher From Buy Re-Entry Range > https://www.unum.capital/post/abg-r10-higher Capitec Bank Firstrand Nedbank Group Standard Bank Previous Post: JSE Banks Trading At A 3-Month Relative Low Update: Our idea on 10 December was to rotate out of JSE banks (relative to the broader market). Today, the share trades at a 3-month relative to the JSE Top 40 Index. Previous Post: JSE Banks Are Overbought On A Relative Basis. Consider Rotating Out (10 December 2024) JSE Banks Relative To JSE Top 40 Index Previous Post: Monday 02 December 2024 (Pre-Market) This chart is available to NON-CLIENTS of Unum Capital. Specifically, if you are: New to financial markets and looking to start your trading journey. An experienced trader, but looking to elevate your trading. Interested in an ACTIVE TRADING approach. Interested in a high quality, award-winning research. Interested in insights that informs and identifies both risks and opportunities. Should you you fit into any of the above categories, we would love a few minutes of your time to be able to further explain why you should consider Unum Capital your trading partner. To access, e-mail your name and contact details to   lester@unum.co.za    To open a trading account, e-mail   lester@unum.co.za    Key Features of Chart: Trading at the upper boundary of a multi-year rising channel Technical Regime: Medium term (Weekly Chart) = High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought RANKED & RECOGNIZED: Unum Research Attains 3rd Place In The 2024 Securities Broker Awards In September 2024, Unum Research was recognized for it's capabilities.  Among well-respected boutiques and ahead of household giants such as FNB and Nedbank, the unit attained 3rd place for the period under review. Commenting on the award, Analyst: Lester Davids remarked: "The award speaks to the high quality of output being recognized by our valued clients as well as the consistency of insights and actionable opportunities that has been delivered over the past 8 years." Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade the Top 40 Index with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Active Traders Consider Reducing Buy/Long Positions. The Top 40 is currently higher by 4341 points from our comment which warned against being aggressively short as well as the real-time price action model reading which stated the following: "The reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position (scroll down for original price action model reading at the Monday 13 January lows). J200 Daily Chart as of Friday 31 January at 14h47 Previous Post (Monday 13 January): JSE Top 40 Index: 200-Day Breached, But Caution On Pressing Shorts Too Hard (+ Price Action Model) Historical price action developments/trading setups have shown us that when a price has been in a downward trend, there is always a risk that the downward momentum slows, which can then be followed by the start of a 'base formation' or bullish reversal. Taking an ultra short term view, we are aware that the index has been in a downward trend, with ' high bullish momentum / approaching oversold ' being the current reading. For traders looking to enter short/sell positions, the current level may not be optimal. Why? One scenario is that the price could continue to trade lower in the following session (today, 14 January) which can be followed by a reclaim of the prior day lows and a bullish reversal. I know the popular saying is ' trade what you see ' however my goal as an analyst is to prepare you in order to recognize opportunities and risks, with various price action scenarios to consider . Bottom line: the index can trade lower in the short term, however, be careful to not press you shorts too aggressively around these level. Analyst's Price Action Model as of Monday 13 January at 13h55 Q: What is the overall trend of the JSE TOP 40 Index? A: The overall trend is bearish. This is indicated by the "Aggressive Selling" in both the medium and long-term price action readings. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The 7-day trend is also bearish, with high bearish momentum and an approaching oversold condition. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The 14-day trend is very bearish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: Yes, the reward-to-risk ratio is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position, but this is only for the short-term (1 to 10 trading days). Q: What is a potential scenario for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: Aggressive selling is underway therefore, traders should wait for lower time frames to stabilize before considering any action. Q: What is a potential scenario for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: Aggressive selling is underway however, traders should look for support at prior swing lows to capture minor rebounds. In summary: The JSE TOP 40 Index is currently in a bearish trend. While there is a short-term opportunity for a small buy/long position, aggressive selling is advised for the medium and long term. Traders should wait for lower time frames to stabilize before considering any action. JSE Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of 13h58 on Monday 12 January 2025 Previous Post (Sunday 12 January 2025): JSE Top 40 Index: Approaching It's 200-Day But Vulnerable To A Breach Update: Breached short term support Rally rejected into the declining 8-day EMA Trading below it's declining 21-day EMA Trading below it's 75-day EMA, which has started to turn lower Trading below it's 21-week EMA, which has started to turn lower Monthly time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Weak Daily time frame = Weak Above a gradually rising 50-week EMA Above a gradually rising 200-SMA SMA Analyst's Price Action Model Regime: Monthly, Weekly & Daily Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of the close on Friday 10 January 2025. Resistance and Support zones are subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. Previous Post: Update: Trading in a tight consolidation range Rejected into the declining 21-day EMA Rejected into the declining 75-day EMA Shifting to and consolidating below a flat 21-week EMA Deteriorating candle structure at short term support Above a rising 50-week EMA Above a rising 200-SMA SMA Previous Post: TRADING The JSE Top 40 Index On 27 September 2024, research highlighted the index trading in a short term overbought range, from which we subsequently saw a retracement and unwind from these overbought conditions. Over the 3 months, the index has traded in a sideways range, reflecting a period of distribution among several large and mid cap constituents. The following key developments are also noted: The price has shifted below it's 50-day EMA (the 50-day EMA has also lost it's upside momentum and is turning lower). The price is breaking below it's 21-week EMA - a level which previous held as support on retracements. The price continues to trade above it's 50-week EMA, which is sloping upwards. This is a positive development. The price continues to trade above it's 200-day SMA, which is sloping upwards. This is a positive development. The 50-week EMA and 200-day SMA are currently aligned. This range could act as a level of support on a further retracement. Do however note that the price has the ability to overshoot this range and test the swing low of 11 September at 72991. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Global Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za The full target of $672 was reached earlier this week and the share traded above $700 post earnings. I was curious to know what the price action model for Meta Platforms stated ... Overbought + Very Bullish, But .... 'Sellers Becoming Active...' I'm NOT suggesting an immediate drop in price or that this is the exact top....but rather the potential for the formation a topping structure or slowdown in upward momentum over the next 3 to 5 months. i.e. the current levels offer a poor buy/long reward-to-risk going forward . META chart as of Friday's close Previous Post: The full, measured move target has been of $672 has been reached (closed higher at $674). this represents a gain of 28% in 4 1/2 months. Bank, Take Profit. Previous Post: 12 September Real-Time: 19h12 (South African Time) / U.S Trading Session Ticker: FB Formerly known as Facebook Inc, the share has shown relative strength, holding near it's multi-year highs however not having made much progress since the first quarter of this year. This could change as the price looks to re-test it's overhead resistance of $543 upon which strong price action/candle structure would suggest a move into a new trading range and a continuation of the multi-year upward trend. Here, an upside target of $672 applicable, with the setup being invalidated on a weekly close below $490. Note: Meta Platforms (Facebook) was an idea flagged through my model nearly 2 years ago at $90. Now trading above $522! (Edit: This week (End Jan 2025), it traded above $700! Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Thank you for taking the time to read our research. For close to 9 years, we have consistently delivered high quality insights that help traders increase their odds of profitability by identifying and communicating risks and opportunities. The benefit to our clients is immense and has resulted in our research being recognized by attaining 3rd place in the 2024 Securities Broker Awards. You can read more about that at the following link: https://www.unum.capital/post/unum-research-awards Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital To trade with Unum Capital, email   lester@unum.co.za Resource Centre (Strategy) Considerations When Evaluating A Technical Trading Opportunity This page is updated on a continuous basis. To access a note, click on the text/link. Alternatively, visit   https://unum.capital/blog/ Research Disclaimer https://www.unum.co.za/research-disclaimer/ Our Research Capabilities (Non-Comprehensive) Spotting A Short/Sell Opportunity In A South African Retailer Global Opportunities: Netflix: A Multi-Month Winner Global Opportunities: Catching The Wave In Artificial Intelligence Active Trading Opportunities ➜   Trading BTI: Higher By R200 (+37%) Over 13 Months Tool of the Trade: Real-Time Example Automated Insights: Northam Platinum As A Real-Time Example Tool of the Trade: Real-Time Examples B.A Tobacco  | Gold Shares  | Impala Platinum  | Absa  | Discovery    Tool of the Trade: Real-Time Example: FirstRand Has Rebounded By 7%. We Shouldn't Be Surprised. Tool of the Trade: Real-Time Example: Trading Mr. Price: Let's Find The Next R10 Trading Prosus: Long/Short > https://www.unum.capital/post/prx-long-short Trading Exxaro Resources: Insights From The Model > https://www.unum.capital/post/trade-exx-model Trading Truworths: Recognizing Retail Risk > https://www.unum.capital/post/tru-cover-shorts Last Update: Saturday 01 February Click here to view the first quarter's research: https://www.unum.capital/post/latest-research-january-2025

Trade   Sasol, Omnia and AECI   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Portfolio View I have no special fundamental insight into this sector, however, it may be worth noting that it trades at a +20-year low relative to the Top 40 Index - possibly worth investigating. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   JSE Coal Miners   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Below are the current price action model readings as of yesterday's close. Previous Post(07 January): JSE Coal Miners: Relative Reversal (Monthly Time Frame) Note the pending bullish MACD crossover and histogram. How Unum Capital Clients Were Prepared for Opportunities In Coal Miners Thungela Resources Exxaro Resources Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za If you avoided JSE consumer discretionary shares during January, or well short, well done. Relative to the JSE Top 40 Index, the group is down 15%. The chart below is a ratio/relative of MRP, TFG, TRU, WHL vs JSE Top 40 Index. Previous Post (07 January) highlighted that the bullish momentum was waning . Scroll down to view previous/original post. https://www.unum.capital/post/cons-disc-rel-waning Previous Post (07 January): JSE Consumer Discretionary: Relative To The Top 40, Bullish Momentum Is Waning Note the bearish MACD crossover and histogram which previously warned around a pullback. Equally-weighted index includes (TFG, MRP, TRU, WHL) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Palladium  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Palladium has given traders two opportunities to accumulate, both of which have resulted in a profitable outcome. We discussed it on 14 November at a price of $923. Yesterday (Friday) it closed at a multi-week high of $1067. We then re-iterated our view on 10 January Previous Post (10 January): Palladium's Pattern Play The price action model suggests that Palladium is currently attempting to move higher in a bullish regime over the short-term. However, the 14-day trend is rangebound, indicating potential for consolidation or pullbacks. In such cases, traders can use the previous session's close or the 8-EMA as potential accumulation zones. The medium-term outlook is uncertain, while the long-term trend is showing signs of a potential reversal from a downward trend. Palladium (XPD/USD) Daily Chart ...Notice Anything? Daily Chart as of 14h43 Previous Post: Tuesday 19 November 2024 Code: XPD/USD Solid reversal off oversold levels with a move from $923 to $1004. Previous Post: Similar To The Previous Setup. Here's What I'm Seeing Thursday 14 November 2024 (Time: 08h02) Aggressive sell-offs come with risks but also create opportunities. Look for a slowdown in downward momentum to signal that a potential rebound is coming.

Trade   Gold   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za XAUUSD Daily Chart as of 01 February Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital