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- Trading Bid Corp: After A 4500c Rebound, This Is The Next Key Level To Monitor
Trade Bid Corp with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za To accelerate momentum, R470 remains a key level. Clients will recall our model reading reading looking for a rebound 31 October (Note Published: Thursday 31 October 2024). Scroll down to view the original post. Previous Post: Bid Corp: Sellers In Control But Potential For A Rebound Thursday 31 October 2024 Time Published: 09h56 Ticker: BID Here's What The Model Says Previous Post: BID CORP (BID): Full Target Reached - Wednesday, 31 July 2024 Real-Time: 15h41 The idea was the accumulate on prints below R422. The stop-loss was briefly breached, before a further consolidation and bullish reversal. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading Mr. Price: Let's Find The Next R10
Trade Mr. Price and other JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za Key Takeaway: For opportunistic, active traders MRP rebounded of between 900c and 1100c on an intraday basis. There are plenty of opportunities to get in, get out and get paid. Yesterday morning (Tuesday, 28 Jan), MRP was on our list of shares which were trading in oversold territory. Reference: ( https://www.unum.capital/post/7x-shares-most-oversold-28-jan ) For those familiar with our strategies, oversold is a range where traders can look to buy/initiate a long position or cover short positions (see graphic below) For MRP, the previous evening's (end of day) price action model readings were clear, with all 3 time frames pointing to the potential for a rebound. SHORT TERM (1 to 10 days) was as follows: "Aggressive selling but the buy/long reward-to-risk may be attractive". MEDIUM TERM (2 to 4 weeks) was as follows: "Has been sold aggressively. Look for a continued decline before a rebound". LONG TERM (5 to 8 weeks) was as follows: "...look for support at the prior swing lows" Further References: The same as the comments on the charts, the time-stamped readings are shown below: Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital Additional Reference: Regimes
- SA Equities: Trading Commentary (Full Coverage)
Trade JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. MEDIUM TERM (APPROXIMATELY 2 to 4 WEEKS) - SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE PRICE ACTION DEVELOPS NOTE: THE SHORT TERM (1 TO 10 DAYS) AND LONG TERM (5 TO 8 WEEK) READINGS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE S/TERM or L/TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital (Data as of end of day Tuesday 28 January 2025)
- Trading Woolworths: Active Traders Banking Nearly 300c!
Trade Woolworths with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Strong rebound off it's first swing low, adding nearly 300c by the close. A great opportunity for ultra short term/intraday traders. Scroll down to see my previous post highlighting the level. Previous Post (Tuesday 21 January): Woolworths: Candle Structure Mixed, But This Pattern Sparks My (Early) Interest Technical Pattern: Falling Wedge (Bullish/Positive) Trend: Downward Candle Structure: Mixed (attempting to stabilize in the short term). Required: Improved candle structure (i.e. possibly an igniting bar that would alert traders to 'take note'). WHL Daily Chart as of Tuesday 21 January at 15h10 Analyst's Price Action Model as of Tuesday 21 January at 15h10 Previous Post (09 January): Woolworths: Price & Trend Analysis Analyst's Price Action Mode With Assessment For 3x Time Frames Overview: When we look at the short-term price action over the last 7 days, we see a clear weakness. This is confirmed by the 14-day trend, which shows aggressive selling. Essentially, the price has been steadily declining over the past two weeks. Medium Term Outlook: The medium-term picture is still bearish, but with a caveat. We're seeing persistent weakness, but there's a glimmer of hope. If the price can reclaim the prior session's lows, it could signal a potential bullish reversal. However, we need to monitor this closely on lower time frames to confirm any such move. Long-Term Perspective: The long-term trend is also bearish. We need to wait for the price to stabilize on the lower time frames before we can reassess. Until then, the outlook remains cautious. WHL is facing headwinds across all time frames. What should investors be watching for? Investors should keep a close eye on the price action on lower time frames. If we see a sustained break above the prior session's lows, it could signal a potential shift in the trend. However, until then, caution is warranted. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Invesco S&P SmallCap Health Care ETF
Access Global ETFs with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za PSCH targets US small-cap companies in the health care space. The fund pulls from the S&P SmallCap 600, a market-cap-weighted index that consists of US small-cap companies screened for size, liquidity, and financial viability. It specifically holds companies engaged in providing health care products, facilities and services, biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, as well as medical technology and supplies. Selected securities are weighted by market cap and are constrained at each quarterly rebalance, such that individual securities will not exceed 22.5% weight and the aggregate weight of securities with over 4.5% allocation is capped at 45% weight of the portfolio. For more speculative investors, PSCH is potentially a great alternative play on the sector. Multi-Year Base: PSCH Weekly Chart as of Tuesday 28 January at 14h50 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- iShares U.S. Pharmaceutical ETF
Access Global ETFs with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za IHE tracks a broad index of US pharmaceutical companies. The fund provides exposure to the manufacturers of prescription or over-the-counter drugs, such as aspirin, cold remedies and birth control pills. The index also includes vaccine producers. IHE may also include companies of all sizes, ranging from large- to small-cap. The index weights its constituents by market cap, with a cap of up to 22.5% per individual company and is rebalanced quarterly. IHE uses a sampling strategy that involves investing in a representative sample of securities that collectively has an investment profile similar to that of an applicable underlying index. Index components are selected on an annual basis. Technical: Multi-year base with a bull flag. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading Truworths: Here's What You Need To Know
Trade Truworths with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za In September, our research alerted to a poor buy/long reward-to-risk for the sector risk. The share is now trading in a high bearish momentum regime while approaching oversold. Analyst's Price Action Model as of Tuesday 28 January at 13h28 September 2024 Reference + Current Chart Below Previous Post: Retailers: Selling Off In Line With The Model Readings This is the 2nd update on the original post. For the previous posts, please scroll down. In the original post, I highlighted the real-time reading from the Tactical Trading Guide. It alerted clients about a poor reward-to-risk on the buy/long side . Since then, performance has been as follows: TFG down from R158 to R146 (recent low) TRU down from R109 to R98 (recent low) MRP rallied to 272 then traded down to 253 (recent low) CLS was at R399, then sold off sharply down to R360. SHP (see insert below) was a setup which clients were well prepared for . The idea was to look for a print ABOVE R314, followed by a pullback. The price traded above R314 and retreated to reach a low of R278 during yesterday's trading session. Well done to clients who have been correctly positioned to take advantage of these moves. Previous Post: Retailers: Unwinding From Overbought Thursday, 03 October 2024 Time Published: 12h29 The Tactical Trading Guide has been very useful in assessing reward-to-risk. The model has given traders timeous readings helping to prepare for opportunity. To add, CLS Clicks is acting in line with the model, which alerted traders that sellers were becoming active. Note the reading at the end of day on 25 September. Previous Post: " Retailers Have Rallied. Here's What The Data Says - Monday, 23 September 2024" Pre-Market A global rate cutting cycle including action from the SARB has support strong moves in retail shares. In addition, early positive signs in the local economy has boosted confidence which has led to analyst upgrades. This is especially relevant in the Consumer Discretionary sector which may feel the effect of improved consumer spend. While the fundamentals are positive and, after a strong rally, the short term reward-to-risk does not appear appealing for new buy/long trades. For Consumer Discretionary shares, this is what the data says: MRP Mr. Price TFG Foschini TRU Truworths Clients of Unum Capital have had access to research which has flagged opportunities across in selected names. TRU, discussed at R56, has nearly doubled in price over 14 months. Truworths - as discussed in the report (Active Trading Plan, Monday 03 July 2023) Then at R56 - now nearly R110. Not a client yet? Get in touch today. ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis for any tradeable instrument across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. The tool helps to determine and shed light on the some of the following: Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position? Whether a share is weak or if aggressive buying is underway Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading Sanlam: Actionable Areas (+Price Action Model)
Trade Sanlam with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Consider partially covering any short/sell positions. This is what the price action model says: Note the long term reading (5 to 8 weeks) which alerts us to look for support at any previous swing low (see circled area). Also see the chart for potential support at the previous swing lows. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Spotting A Short: Mr. Price Share Decline Helps Active Traders Get Paid
Trade Mr. Price and other JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za This post highlights 3x occasions where both manual and automated views in early to mid December 2024 prepared traders for a short/sell opportunity in Mr. Price Group. Are you taking advantage of the tools and information being provided? Well done those who are! MRP is a share I discussed on 12 December , highlighting the unfavorable reward-to-risk on the buy/long side. The note was driven by both a manual view (observation/analysis of the chart etc.) as well as being informed by the price action model . The share has since declined from ~29800c to 25500c. Well done to any clients that may have recognized the risk and capitalized on the opportunity. Edit/Insert: On 03 December, despite the price rising, the end of day price action model was prescient was identifying the emergence of sellers. This was 3 days before the peak (which was only a few cents higher) and which provided traders with ample opportunity to position themselves for a short/sell trade. The updated chart and time-stamped reading (03 December) is shown below. The share price peaked on 06 December . Below is the time-stamped model reading for the previous day (end of day) on 05 December , where the model stated the following: "Do not enter a buy/long at/around current levels. The reward-to-risk is unattractive." Previous Post: Mr. Price's Model Reading Points To Unfavorable Reward-To-Risk Thursday 12 December 2024 (Time: Pre-Market) MRP Mr. Price Group Last week's price action/model readings warned against fresh longs at/around current levels. Additional notes on the slide below Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading USD/ZAR: Long Positions Generating Cash Flow
Trade FX: USD/ZAR with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za Further Update: Significant intraday rally off the buy zone (R18.23 to R18.36) to a high of R18.77. USDZAR Daily Chart as of Monday 27 January at 21h16 Previous Post (Monday 27 January) Trading USD/ZAR: Into The Support Range, Then Rally As noted last week Monday 20 January: "The 50/75-EMA Range (R18.23 to R18.36) Is A Best Probability Support Zone ". On Friday, the pair traded int this range (with a low of 18.29) and has since rebounded to today's intraday high (thus far) of R18.59. Now trading into it's declining 21-day EMA. Previous Post (Monday 20 January): USD/ZAR The 50/75-EMA Range (R18.23 to R18.36) Is A Best Probability Support Zone Analyst Price Action Model as of Monday 20 January at 18h56 Overall Trend: Long Term: Consolidating Within an Upward Trend. The 8-EMA Has Been Breached, Use The 21-EMA (Weekly) As a Potential Buy Range. Short-Term Trends: 7-Day Trend: Weak 14-Day Trend: Weak Within A Sideways Consolidation Rangebound Short-Term Trading Opportunities: No explicit short-term buy/long position opportunities are mentioned. The focus is on the long-term trend and using moving averages for potential buy ranges. Medium-Term Outlook (2 to 4 weeks) : No reading available. Long-Term Outlook (5 to 8 weeks): Consolidating Within an Upward Trend. The 8-EMA Has Been Breached, Use The 21-EMA As a Potential Buy Range. In Summary: The USD/ZAR pair is currently in a long-term uptrend with recent consolidation. While the short-term trends are weak, the long-term outlook suggests a potential buy opportunity using the 21-EMA (weekly) as a reference point. Previous Post (19 January): USD/ZAR Bearish Reversal In Line With Model Reading (R19.21 to R18.63) Last week, before trading commenced in Asia, our key view around the Rand was that the USDZAR pair was approaching short term overbought conditions and that any failure to hold the range highs could result in a bearish reversal from the overbought regime. On Monday, the pair traded above the previous session (Friday) highs before developing a long upper tail which signaled an exhaustion of the bullish momentum. From above R19.21, the pair reached a low of R18.63 before midday on Friday , breaching it's 8-day EMA but remaining above it's rising 21-day EMA. USDZAR Daily Chart as of Friday 17 January at 14h31 In case you may have missed the previous note, please scroll down. Previous Post: Before You Trade USD/ZAR, Read This (12 January) Analyst's Price Action Model What is the overall trend for USD/ZAR? The overall trend for USD/ZAR is bullish across all timeframes. What is the short-term (1 to 10 days) price action reading? The short-term price action is very strong and bullish. Buyers are in control, but it's advised not to chase the price. If the price fails to hold the highs, the 8-EMA could be a short-sell target. What is the medium-term (2 to 4 weeks) price action reading? The medium-term price action is also very strong and bullish. Buyers are in control, but again, it's advised not to chase the price. If the price fails to hold the highs, the 8-EMA could be a short-sell target. What is the long-term (5 to 8 weeks) price action reading? The long-term price action is showing aggressive buying underway. However, it's advised not to chase the price. Look for an opportunity to short-sell back to the 8-EMA if the price fails to hold prior session range highs. In summary, the USD/ZAR is in a strong uptrend across all timeframes. Traders should be cautious and avoid chasing the price. Short-selling opportunities may arise if the price fails to hold key levels or becomes extended vs key moving averages. Points To Ponder: The pair is trading at an extended level above it's 75-day exponential moving average. Although extended, it is not extreme compared to historical distance readings. The pair is above a rising 8-day EMA. The pair is above a rising 21-day EMA. The 75-day EMA has turned upward. The 21-week EMA has turned upward. The 50-week EMA has started to turn upward. The 200-day SMA is trading sideways. Regime for each time frame Daily time frame = High bullish momentum/ Approaching overbought Weekly time frame = Overbought Monthly time frame = Strong Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Trading Discovery: R20 Lower, Consider Covering Short Position
Trade Discovery Ltd with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za For clients who may be short (i.e. have sold at higher levels), consider partially covering your short positions. FURTHER UPDATE as of Tuesday 28 January (09h11): Now trading 2000c lower. The move is in line with our comments on 12 December, 02 January and then again on 15 January. Previous Post: Discovery Ltd: Relative Distribution Phase + MACD Bearish Crossover Points to note (also stated on the chart) Candle structure: momentum being lost + relative distribution MACD negative crossover Previous Post: DISCOVERY Extended Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index The chart reflects a ratio of of DSY relative to the JSE Top 40 Index where the distance versus the 40-week simple moving average reflects an extended level (+29% in December 2024). Note the previous extension coinciding with bearish reversal, or at best, the start of period of consolidation. Previous Post: DISCOVERY Pending Bearish MACD Crossover + Most Overbought Reading in +10 Years Thursday 12 December 2024 (Time: Pre-Market) DSY Discovery Holdings Notes on the slide below Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Woolworths: Key Points From It's Trading Update & Trading Statement
Trade Woolworths with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Overall Group Performance: Turnover increased by 5.7% (6.2% constant currency). Sales growth softened in the final eight weeks. Food business remained strong, with double-digit growth. Apparel businesses (FBH and CRG) faced challenges. Woolworths South Africa: Strong Food sales growth driven by volume and innovation. FBH sales growth moderated due to supply chain disruptions and systems changes. Beauty business continued to perform well. Online sales growth across Food and FBH. Country Road Group: Sales declined due to a challenging retail environment and ongoing restructuring. Black Friday and festive season sales showed some improvement. Financial Highlights: Property disposal in Australia will boost EPS significantly. Headline EPS and adjusted diluted HEPS are expected to be lower than the prior year. Key Takeaways: Woolworths continues to navigate a challenging retail landscape. The Food business remains a key driver of growth. Apparel businesses require significant improvement. Restructuring efforts within CRG are ongoing. The property sale will provide a significant boost to earnings. Weaker Apparel Performance: The company's apparel businesses in both regions underperformed expectations. Negative Operational Leverage: This underperformance led to negative operational leverage for the entire Group. Lower Earnings: As a result, both Headline Earnings Per Share (HEPS) and Adjusted Diluted HEPS (adHEPS) are anticipated to be lower than the previous year's figures. Expected Ranges: HEPS is expected to be between 148.4 cents and 158.6 cents. adHEPS is expected to be between 165.7 cents and 176.1 cents. In essence: The company's overall profitability is expected to decline due to the poor performance of its apparel businesses. Previous Post (Tuesday 21 January): Woolworths: Candle Structure Mixed, But This Pattern Sparks My (Early) Interest Technical Pattern: Falling Wedge (Bullish/Positive) Trend: Downward Candle Structure: Mixed (attempting to stabilize in the short term). Required: Improved candle structure (i.e. possibly an igniting bar that would alert traders to 'take note'). WHL Daily Chart as of Tuesday 21 January at 15h10 Analyst's Price Action Model as of Tuesday 21 January at 15h10 Previous Post (09 January): Woolworths: Price & Trend Analysis Analyst's Price Action Mode With Assessment For 3x Time Frames Overview: When we look at the short-term price action over the last 7 days, we see a clear weakness. This is confirmed by the 14-day trend, which shows aggressive selling. Essentially, the price has been steadily declining over the past two weeks. Medium Term Outlook: The medium-term picture is still bearish, but with a caveat. We're seeing persistent weakness, but there's a glimmer of hope. If the price can reclaim the prior session's lows, it could signal a potential bullish reversal. However, we need to monitor this closely on lower time frames to confirm any such move. Long-Term Perspective: The long-term trend is also bearish. We need to wait for the price to stabilize on the lower time frames before we can reassess. Until then, the outlook remains cautious. WHL is facing headwinds across all time frames. What should investors be watching for? Investors should keep a close eye on the price action on lower time frames. If we see a sustained break above the prior session's lows, it could signal a potential shift in the trend. However, until then, caution is warranted. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital










