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  • Trading Absa Group: Generating Cash For Active Traders

    Trade   Absa Group   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Absa: Reached our buy re-entry range, followed by a strong intraday rebound, generating cash for active/opportunistic traders. Well done to clients who may have capitalized on the opportunity. Previous Post: How To Trade: Absa Group (ABG) (Wednesday 22 January at 15h53) Key Takeaways : 1. Fundamentals Remain Appealing 2. Currently Unwinding From An Overbought Range 3. The next-best probability re-accumulation range is between 17930c and 18150c. This range is subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. In recent months, we have expressed our views around buy/long side opportunities in ABSA, with these short to medium term structures coming to fruition as the group reported results that were above analyst consensus expectations. The surge to above R195 placed the share in short term overbought territory, with the price action model confirming that the reward-to-risk for the short term traders had become unappealing. Below, the time-stamped model is shown: What has transpired since? As noted, the share traded into the 19600c/19900c range and has since experienced a period of distribution (selling) to below 18700c. Note the short term deteriorating candle structure. Where is the next best level to accumulate? Both the 50-day and 75-EMA continue to trend higher, with the price trading above these areas. The share price is also trading above it's rising 21-week EMA. There is an unfilled gap at 18203c, which is broadly in line with both the 75-day and 21week EMA. These are approximate areas meaning that the price can overshoot to the downside (or not reach it at all). For now, my next-best probability re-accumulation range is between 17930c and 18150c. This range is subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. Analyst's Price Action Model Previous Post: ABSA GROUP Voluntary Trading Upside Accelerates Fundamental Re-Rating Coming off a low base, materially stronger earnings growth is expected for 2024. The share has materially outperformed it's peer group this week but remains muted over the long term. This gives the share room to advance over the medium. To re-iterate, my long term target is R220. Please scroll down for the previous posts. Previous Post: ABSA GROUP: Absolute & Relative Re-Rating Thursday 05 December 2024 (Time: 06:21) In March, below R145, Clients were alerted to an opportunity to accumulate, driven by the model reading. Yesterday, the share was the strongest performer amongst the financials. On an absolute basis, the share is trading at multi-week highs. On a relative basis, the share is looking to breach it's downward trend vs the JSE Top 40 Index. To me, it looks the like the start of a re-rating and the potential start of relative outperformance. Remember, it's been very cheap with an appealing valuation. The ratio chart is shown below: Previous Post: Absa Group: Relative Value Monday 25 November 2024 (Time Published: 06h28) Fundamentally undervalued + has not participated in the re-rating of South African equities. Whilst it is trading off the Q2 lows, the share remains in a multi-year consolidation phase and off it's all-time highs. Long Term Target = R220. View as of Thursday 21 November at 09h59. Previous Post: TRADER'S TOOLBOX: Absa's 3 Major Turning Points - Tuesday, 20 August 2024 The major turning points in the share were late March, mid June and early in August. These 2 longs and 1 short triggers helped traders position for the subsequent moves to take advantage of cash-flow generating opportunities. BUY/LONG Discussed in detail, along with the Tactical Trading Guide on Monday, 25 March. The charts below are also adjusted to include dividends. Short/Sell (Reading/Chart 1) Warning that a buy/long was unappealing. Short/Sell (Reading/Chart 2) Alerting to a 1 to 2 day/week short/sell setup. Buy/Long - Monitor For Bullish Reversal Opportunity V-Shaped reversal followed by massive gap up during yesterday's session (earnings release). Clients of Unum Capital are often alerted to key technical developments which include readings from the Tactical Trading Guide. This acts as a guide which helps to identify both opportunities and risk. To become a client, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011384 2923 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Proposed Colombian Tariffs Boost Coffee Trade Idea (+124% and 44% Respectively)

    COMMODITIES Coffee Futures buy/long idea +124% over +two years and higher by 44% since highlighting the breakout via the monthly chart on 28 October (3 months). Previous Post: COMMODITIES Coffee Futures Buy/Long Idea +93% Over Two Years Monday 25 November 2024 (14h54) My report, published just under one month ago (28 October), highlighted the monthly chart for coffee futures, with the key feature being the potential for a multi-year breakout. Two years ago, on 20 November 2022, clients were alerted to a buy/long view. Over the period, the commodity has advanced by 93%, exceeding the initial target. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading MTN Group: Upward Momentum Slowing + Poor Buy/Long Reward-To-Risk

    Trade MTN Group  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Previous Post: Strategy Alert: MTN Group (Thursday 23 January) MTN Daily Chart as of Thursday 23 January at 15h29 Previous Post: MTN Group +R25 Rally / Now Short Term Overbought / Updated Model Reading Analyst Price Action Model as of Tuesday 21 January at 09h15 Model Summary: The MTN GROUP stock is currently in a bullish trend, but the 7-day trend is overbought. Traders are advised to not chase the price and look for opportunities to short-sell if the price fails to hold key levels. The medium-term outlook is also bullish with aggressive buying, but caution is advised against chasing the price. The long-term outlook is bullish with a strong attempt at a bullish reversal. Current 7-Day Trend: Overbought. Current 14-Day Trend: Bullish. Short-Term Buy/Long Position Opportunity? No. Do not chase the price. If the price fails to hold the highs, the 8-EMA may be a short-sell target. Medium-Term Outlook (2 to 4 Weeks): The medium-term outlook is aggressive buying but do not chase. Look for an opportunity to short-sell if the price fails to hold prior session range highs back to the 8-EMA. Long-Term Outlook (5 to 8 Weeks): The long-term outlook is bullish. There is a strong attempt at a bullish reversal following a consolidation phase. Previous Post: Wednesday 27 November 2024 (15h24) MTN GROUP R10 Lower + New Levels of Interest + Falling Wedge Structure The share us R10 lower, with the model having alerted traders to monitor for a failure to hold the highs. Take note of this falling wedge structure on the share Previous Post: 18 September (Real-Time: 13h49) Ticker: MTN Technical Condition and Price Action Probability Daily Chart Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Mondi Plc: Buy Idea Currently In The Money (+1700c)

    Trade   Mondi Plc   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Strong/improving candle structure. Trading at a 10-week high. Consider banking partial profits (full target is 29700c. Now 28477c) As always, traders could consider the following if/when the prices approaches the target: bank/take profit, partially scale out, adjust the stop-loss to protect profits. Previous Post: Trade Alert: Mondi Plc Wednesday 13 November 2024 (Time: 11h53) Share Code: MNP Below is the TEXT as per the accompanying image: HIGH RISK BUY IDEA therefore small-than-average position sizes may apply. The share has been sold off aggressively and is in a high bearish momentum regime while approaching oversold. I do not think that THIS is the exact low (i.e. I am expecting lower levels) however, this may be a RANGE to starting building a buy/long position with the expectation that a base starts to form over the near term followed by a potential bullish reversal. Buy at current levels or lower (traders could consider starting with a 1/3 of the position). As always, traders could consider the following if/when the prices approaches the target: bank/take profit, partially scale out, adjust the stop-loss to protect profits. Time stop: 09 May 2025. Trading Levels Suggested Entry: 26768c or better/lower (this was the price at the time of writing) Target: 29700c Stop-loss: 25400 MNP's Model Reading as of 11h46 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading: The Foschini Group (TFG) Actionable Areas

    Trade TFG and other JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Previous Post (Sunday 26 January): Trading: TFG Short sellers (traders position for a move lower) are benefitting from the share price decline. TFG is down by 15% from R172, reaching a level just below R146 on Friday (trading update released). If you are short (have been positioned for a price decline), then consider covering some that position). The bearish move is in line with our view that the bullish momentum for the Consumer Discretionary sector is waning. Current Model Reading: Analyst's Price Action Model Reading Previous Post (07 January): JSE Consumer Discretionary: Relative To The Top 40, Bullish Momentum Is Waning Note the bearish MACD crossover and histogram which previously warned around a pullback. Equally-weighted index includes (TFG, MRP, TRU, WHL) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading USD/ZAR: Into The Support Range, Then Rally

    Trade FX: USD/ZAR  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za As noted last week Monday 20 January: "The 50/75-EMA Range (R18.23 to R18.36) Is A Best Probability Support Zone ". On Friday, the pair traded int this range (with a low of 18.29) and has since rebounded to today's intraday high (thus far) of R18.59. Now trading into it's declining 21-day EMA. Previous Post (Monday 20 January): USD/ZAR The 50/75-EMA Range (R18.23 to R18.36) Is A Best Probability Support Zone Analyst Price Action Model as of Monday 20 January at 18h56 Overall Trend: Long Term: Consolidating Within an Upward Trend. The 8-EMA Has Been Breached, Use The 21-EMA (Weekly) As a Potential Buy Range. Short-Term Trends: 7-Day Trend: Weak 14-Day Trend: Weak Within A Sideways Consolidation Rangebound Short-Term Trading Opportunities: No explicit short-term buy/long position opportunities are mentioned. The focus is on the long-term trend and using moving averages for potential buy ranges. Medium-Term Outlook (2 to 4 weeks) : No reading available. Long-Term Outlook (5 to 8 weeks): Consolidating Within an Upward Trend. The 8-EMA Has Been Breached, Use The 21-EMA As a Potential Buy Range. In Summary: The USD/ZAR pair is currently in a long-term uptrend with recent consolidation. While the short-term trends are weak, the long-term outlook suggests a potential buy opportunity using the 21-EMA (weekly) as a reference point. Previous Post (19 January): USD/ZAR Bearish Reversal In Line With Model Reading (R19.21 to R18.63) Last week, before trading commenced in Asia, our key view around the Rand was that the USDZAR pair was approaching short term overbought conditions and that any failure to hold the range highs could result in a bearish reversal from the overbought regime. On Monday, the pair traded above the previous session (Friday) highs before developing a long upper tail which signaled an exhaustion of the bullish momentum. From above R19.21, the pair reached a low of R18.63 before midday on Friday , breaching it's 8-day EMA but remaining above it's rising 21-day EMA. USDZAR Daily Chart as of Friday 17 January at 14h31 In case you may have missed the previous note, please scroll down. Previous Post: Before You Trade USD/ZAR, Read This (12 January) Analyst's Price Action Model What is the overall trend for USD/ZAR? The overall trend for USD/ZAR is bullish across all timeframes. What is the short-term (1 to 10 days) price action reading? The short-term price action is very strong and bullish. Buyers are in control, but it's advised not to chase the price. If the price fails to hold the highs, the 8-EMA could be a short-sell target. What is the medium-term (2 to 4 weeks) price action reading? The medium-term price action is also very strong and bullish. Buyers are in control, but again, it's advised not to chase the price. If the price fails to hold the highs, the 8-EMA could be a short-sell target. What is the long-term (5 to 8 weeks) price action reading? The long-term price action is showing aggressive buying underway. However, it's advised not to chase the price. Look for an opportunity to short-sell back to the 8-EMA if the price fails to hold prior session range highs. In summary, the USD/ZAR is in a strong uptrend across all timeframes. Traders should be cautious and avoid chasing the price. Short-selling opportunities may arise if the price fails to hold key levels or becomes extended vs key moving averages. Points To Ponder: The pair is trading at an extended level above it's 75-day exponential moving average. Although extended, it is not extreme compared to historical distance readings. The pair is above a rising 8-day EMA. The pair is above a rising 21-day EMA. The 75-day EMA has turned upward. The 21-week EMA has turned upward. The 50-week EMA has started to turn upward. The 200-day SMA is trading sideways. Regime for each time frame Daily time frame = High bullish momentum/ Approaching overbought Weekly time frame = Overbought Monthly time frame = Strong Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading: Naspers. Now Higher By +R233 (+6.4%)

    Trade Naspers   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za The price action model (TTG) alerted to the possibility of a small rebound (scroll down to see previous note + time-stamped reading). The share is now higher by 6.4%. Now trading into the next best probability resistance range (see chart). Previous Post (Sunday 26 January): Trading Naspers: Cash Flow For Active Traders (+Price Action Model Reading) On Monday 13 January at 15h08, we highlighted Naspers shares trading in an oversold range relative to the JSE Top 40 Index. Since then, the share has rallied by R159 , generating cash flow for traders who took advantage of the aforementioned oversold conditions. The model reading for the 3x time frames, as of Friday's close, is as follows: Analyst's Price Action Model as of the close on Friday 24 January. Naspers: next best probability short term resistance at the upside overshoot of the declining 21-day EMA. Chart as of the close on Friday 24 January. Previous Post: Relative The Top 40, Naspers Is Trading In A Short Term Oversold Range (Monday 13 January) at 15h08 NPN Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of Monday 15h08 Analyst's price Action Model Reading on Monday 13 January at 15h08 - "Expect a small rebound" Previous Post: Naspers: Well Done, Short Sellers (Tuesday 07 January) Naspers: The share has fallen sharpy, in line with the model reading (published 05 January) which showed that the declining 8/21-EMA could be used as a level into which to initiate short/sell positions. On the back of geopolitical company-related developments (China/military etc.), the share declined by over 9%, reached it's rising 50-week moving average and it's 200-day simple moving average. The candle structure remains poor, with potential for further weakness. For traders looking to re-enter, it would be best to wait until there is stabilization on the lower time frames (1-hour and 4-hour etc.). The pullback is also in line with the Tactical Trading Guide seen at the peak on 02 October (peak), which warned traders that the reward-to-risk was unappealing and that a consolidation and pullback can be expected. See the time-stamped reading below: Previous Post: Naspers Price and Trend Analysis (Sunday, 05 January 2025) Price Action Model with 3x Time Frames AI-Assisted Summary of the above Price Action Model Overall, the price action model suggests a bearish short-term trend with a potential for bullish momentum in the medium and long term. Traders should be cautious in the short term and look for opportunities to sell on rebounds. In the medium and long term, they should look for minor support levels to buy into for a potential rebound. Price Chart With Moving Average Trends Technical Trend Ratings (Monthly, Weekly & Daily) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Setups via Strategy Screens

    Trade JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za To access the list of our latest research, please find the following link: https://www.unum.capital/post/latest-research-january-2025 Please Note: The screens are non-comprehensive while additional opportunities will be communicated as the price action/news flow develops. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Latest Research: January 2025

    To access the list of latest research, please visit the following link: https://www.unum.capital/post/latest-research-january-2025 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • SA Equities: Trading Commentary (Full Coverage)

    Trade JSE Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. MEDIUM TERM (APPROXIMATELY 2 to 4 WEEKS) - SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE PRICE ACTION DEVELOPS NOTE: THE SHORT TERM (1 TO 10 DAYS) AND LONG TERM (5 TO 8 WEEK) READINGS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE S/TERM or L/TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital (Data as of end of day Friday 24 January 2025)

  • NextEra Energy: Natural Gas & Nuclear For Artificial Intelligence

    Access   Global Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za For consideration within a medium term portfolio. The CEO being interviewed on Bloomberg caught my attention, which led me to look at the chart. NextEra Energy, Inc. engages in the provision of renewable energy. It operates through the following segments: FPL and NEER. The FPL segment involves the generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of electric energy in Florida. The NEER segment produces electricity from clean and renewable sources, including wind and solar. The company was founded on December 28, 1925 and is headquartered in Juno Beach, FL. 5-Year Consolidation This could setting up as a potential failed top formation (bullish/positive). Trigger Level = Above $80 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading: African Rainbow Minerals (ARI)

    Trade African Rainbow Minerals   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Update: ARI gave traders an opportunity to accumulate and has since gained between 1000c and 1200c, trading as high as 16321c on Friday. Previous Post (Sunday 12 January): African Rainbow Minerals: Breaking Out On A Relative Basis (Bullish Setup) African Rainbow Minerals Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index African Rainbow Minerals (ARI) Analyst's Price Action Model The 7-day trend is strong, and the 14-day trend is rangebound. Q: What is the overall trend for African Rainbow Minerals in the short term (1 to 10 trading days)? A: attempting a bullish reversal following a consolidation phase. This suggests a potential upward move in the short term. Q: What is the medium-term trend (2 to 4 weeks) for African Rainbow Minerals? A: The medium-term trend is attempting a rebound following a downward trend. This indicates a potential upward movement, but it may consolidate further before continuing higher. Q: What is the long-term trend (5 to 8 weeks) for African Rainbow Minerals? A: The long-term trend is range-bound in a weak regime. A recovery buy or long position is triggered on strong bids and a break of the current range high. This suggests a potential upward move, but it may be range-bound for a while. Q: What are the key takeaways from this price action analysis? A: The short-term trend is bullish, suggesting a potential upward move. The medium-term trend is attempting a rebound, but may consolidate further before continuing higher. The long-term trend is range-bound, but a recovery buy or long position is triggered on strong bids and a break of the current range high. Q: What are some potential strategies for trading African Rainbow Minerals based on this analysis? A: Short-term traders: May look to buy on dips or breakouts in the short term, as the trend is bullish. Medium-term traders: May look to buy on a break of the current resistance level, as the medium-term trend is attempting a rebound. Long-term traders: May look to buy on strong bids and a break of the current range high, as the long-term trend is range-bound. Previous Post: African Rainbow Minerals: A +29% Rally; Now Short Term Overbought Wednesday, 02 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market (06h11) Ticker: ARI Significant rally off the swing lows of R155 to a high R201.98 during yesterday's session. Short term traders, take profit or trim some of your position. Previous Post: Wednesday, 13 September 2024. 11h55 The share has now rallied by R37, with a high of R192.64 today. Short term/active traders will use these advances to reduce exposure and potentially re-enter at lower levels. The high was also into my actionable trading zone (sell/reduce), pulling back to R187 on an intraday basis. Scroll down to see the previous (+original) posts which were communicated to clients of Unum Capital. The chart is 'current' Previous Post: 13 September 2024 Update / Pre-Market Ticker: ARI Previous Post: 12 September Real-Time: 10h21 Ticker: ARI The share has found support at the previous swing low and is rebounding from deeply oversold conditions. This setup was discussed on Monday, 02 September. The chart is 'current' Pre-Market Ticker: ARI As per my report on Monday, 02 September (Active Trading Plan), the share is approaching key levels i.e. the previous breakout range and the previous swing lows. Also note the following, yesterday we saw a 'doji' candle being printed, which may be early clues of a slowdown in downward momentum. Note: Event risk in the form of earnings at present (Friday, 06 September). The slide from my report is shown below. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

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