Search this site

Trade Richemont   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za The chart below highlights the relative/ratio charts price distance versus it's medium term 75-day EMA. Previous Post: Richemont: Sharp Bullish Reversal, In Line With Trading Comment & Model Reading The comment below is an extract from our note on Richemont, dated 26 November 2024. "While it the trend is down and the fundamental outlook is bearish, it may be worthwhile to keep an open mind for a potential change of trend following this multi-month consolidation" - Lester Davids, 26-Nov-2024. The chart below highlights the share price development since: CFR chart as of Thursday 16 January at 09h16 You may also recall the end of day model reading (26-Nov) stating the following: "Attempting a rebound following a downward trend. The share may consolidate further before continuing, higher" . The share has since risen by 34%. Previous Post: Tuesday 26 November 2024 (Time Published: 06h09) The current price trend (down) reflects the automatic price action reading which clearly states the share is weak (ST & MT) while the 8-week and 21-week EMA may act as resistance ranges on any short term rally. The fundamental impact on price is known, with the impact of the Chinese slowdown having filtered through to almost all global luxury peers, resulting in muted growth prospects which has caused market participants to sell down the shares. The share was previous a short/sell idea on 07 June when it traded into extreme short term overbought territory at a high of R3194 before retreating by 27% to it's recent low of R2309. While it the trend is fundamental outlook is bearish and the price is trending down, it may be worthwhile to keep an open mind for a potential change of trend following this multi-month consolidation . What do we need to see? Strong price action with volume would be an early indicator that the market's sentiment toward the share is starting to change + clear/reclaiming the downward trend line in place since the recent peak of 07 June 2024. View as of Thursday 21 November at 10h52. Previous Post: Richemont Is Retreating In Line With Model Reading - Wednesday, 18 September 2024 Real-Time: 10h45 Ticker: CFR Currently lower by R415 or 15.4% Potential target is the unfilled gap at ~R2380 Previous Post (22 August 2024) • REAL-TIME: 15h30 ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that   are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which   is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis for any tradeable instrument across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. The tool helps to determine and shed light on the some of the following: Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position? Whether a share is weak or if aggressive buying is underway Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za As highlighted pre-market 09 January. See circled area on the table below: The chart below highlights the JSE Insurance sector relative to the JSE Top 40 Index.  Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   FX: EUR/USD   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Analyst's price Action Model as of Friday 24 January at 13h13 Previous Post: EUR/USD Attempting A Bullish Reversal Following An Aggressive Sell-Off Analyst's Price Action Model Let's break down the EUR/USD trend analysis based on the price action model: Overall Trend: Long Term: Persistently Weak But Monitor Lower Times For Rebound Potential Short-Term Trends: 7-Day Trend: Neutral 14-Day Trend: Rangebound Short-Term Trading Opportunities: No explicit short-term buy/long position opportunities are indicated in the image. Medium-Term Outlook (2 to 4 weeks): Strong Attempting At Bullish Reversal Following Aggressive Sell-Off Long-Term Outlook (5 to 8 weeks): Persistently Weak But Monitor Lower Times For Rebound Potential Summary: The EUR/USD pair is currently in a long-term downtrend. In the short term, the 7-day trend is neutral, while the 14-day trend is rangebound. There is no explicit signal for a short-term buy or long position. However, the medium-term outlook suggests a potential bullish reversal following a recent sell-off. In the long term, the pair is expected to remain weak, but with potential for rebounds. ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that   are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which   is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis for any tradeable instrument across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Graphic as of Friday 24 January at 12h57 Resource Guide: Technical Tatings Explained Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade FX: USD/ZAR  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za The pair has breached the 50-day EMA and is approaching the 75-day EMA. Scroll down to view Monday's chart + comment. Below is the current chart and model reading (Friday 24 January at 12h00). Do note that the pair may potentially overshoot to the downside. Previous Post: USD/ZAR The 50/75-EMA Range (R18.23 to R18.36) Is A Best Probability Support Zone Analyst Price Action Model as of Monday 20 January at 18h56 Overall Trend: Long Term: Consolidating Within an Upward Trend. The 8-EMA Has Been Breached, Use The 21-EMA (Weekly) As a Potential Buy Range. Short-Term Trends: 7-Day Trend: Weak 14-Day Trend: Weak Within A Sideways Consolidation Rangebound Short-Term Trading Opportunities: No explicit short-term buy/long position opportunities are mentioned. The focus is on the long-term trend and using moving averages for potential buy ranges. Medium-Term Outlook (2 to 4 weeks) : No reading available. Long-Term Outlook (5 to 8 weeks): Consolidating Within an Upward Trend. The 8-EMA Has Been Breached, Use The 21-EMA As a Potential Buy Range. In Summary: The USD/ZAR pair is currently in a long-term uptrend with recent consolidation. While the short-term trends are weak, the long-term outlook suggests a potential buy opportunity using the 21-EMA (weekly) as a reference point. Previous Post (19 January): USD/ZAR Bearish Reversal In Line With Model Reading (R19.21 to R18.63) Last week, before trading commenced in Asia, our key view around the Rand was that the USDZAR pair was approaching short term overbought conditions and that any failure to hold the range highs could result in a bearish reversal from the overbought regime. On Monday, the pair traded above the previous session (Friday) highs before developing a long upper tail which signaled an exhaustion of the bullish momentum. From above R19.21, the pair reached a low of R18.63 before midday on Friday , breaching it's 8-day EMA but remaining above it's rising 21-day EMA. USDZAR Daily Chart as of Friday 17 January at 14h31 In case you may have missed the previous note, please scroll down. Previous Post: Before You Trade USD/ZAR, Read This (12 January) Analyst's Price Action Model What is the overall trend for USD/ZAR? The overall trend for USD/ZAR is bullish across all timeframes. What is the short-term (1 to 10 days) price action reading? The short-term price action is very strong and bullish. Buyers are in control, but it's advised not to chase the price. If the price fails to hold the highs, the 8-EMA could be a short-sell target. What is the medium-term (2 to 4 weeks) price action reading? The medium-term price action is also very strong and bullish. Buyers are in control, but again, it's advised not to chase the price. If the price fails to hold the highs, the 8-EMA could be a short-sell target. What is the long-term (5 to 8 weeks) price action reading? The long-term price action is showing aggressive buying underway. However, it's advised not to chase the price. Look for an opportunity to short-sell back to the 8-EMA if the price fails to hold prior session range highs. In summary, the USD/ZAR is in a strong uptrend across all timeframes. Traders should be cautious and avoid chasing the price. Short-selling opportunities may arise if the price fails to hold key levels or becomes extended vs key moving averages. Points To Ponder: The pair is trading at an extended level above it's 75-day exponential moving average. Although extended, it is not extreme compared to historical distance readings. The pair is above a rising 8-day EMA. The pair is above a rising 21-day EMA. The 75-day EMA has turned upward. The 21-week EMA has turned upward. The 50-week EMA has started to turn upward. The 200-day SMA is trading sideways. Regime for each time frame Daily time frame = High bullish momentum/ Approaching overbought Weekly time frame = Overbought Monthly time frame = Strong Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Update: The ration chart published on 10 January highlighted the potential for diversified miners to outperform banks on a relative basis. Since the ratio has delivered a positive return, gaining 8.7% over 2 weeks. The updated relative/ration chart is shown below: Previous Post: THE BIG FIVE(s): Miners vs Banks (10 January) This is a ratio chart, showing a basket of miners (AGL, BHG, GLN, ARI and S32) vs banks (ABG, CPI, FSR, NED and SBK). Zooming out, the ratio is approaching a potentially key level on multi-year basis. If the ratio trades at or around this level, it would likely be approaching oversold on a multi-week and multi-month basis, which could offer an appealing reward-to-risk for traders looking to buy miners and sell banks. Also note the lower panel, which shows the ratio trading at 40% below it's 200-week SMA. This chart is important. Don't ignore it. FSR on an absolute basis, clients of Unum Capital were alerted to a sell idea for Firstrand close to it's multi-year peak. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Access Global Shares & ETFs  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za In September of last year (2024), I discussed European equities being inexpensive near it's all-time highs. This week, the Euro Stoxx 600 printed new all-time highs. European Financials (EUFN ETF) form part of this group and are trading at the same level (in USD term) as they did in 2010 and 2011. Look at that multi-year base. In addition, the sector trades at valuations that would require very little to go right to see a re-rating. In other words, the bar is low. Previous Post: European Equities: Inexpensive Near All-Time Highs Thursday, 26 September 2024 at 21h12 ETF: iShares Europe Ticker: IEV Trading at 52-week highs, but remains relatively inexpensive Current Price = $58.78 Medium term target = $68 The setup is invalidated below 54.00

Access Global Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za Coinbase Global, Inc. operates as a secure hosted bitcoin wallet to purchase and use bitcoin. It provides merchant tools that enable companies to accept payments in bitcoin by incorporating a single button. The company was founded by Brian Armstrong in 2012 and is headquartered in San Francisco, CA. Weekly Chart - Multi-year Inverse Head and Shoulder Formation. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Aspen Pharmacare   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za 1. On a relative basis versus the JSE Top 40 Index, the ratio remains extended to the downside versus the 200-day SMA (room to move higher i.e. reversion to the mean). 2. The same ratio chart shows the price attempting to reclaim it's 50-day EMA (see the circled area which shows the price similar to the previous period). Previous Post: Text from the image above: HIGH RISK BUY IDEA therefore small-than-average position sizes may apply. The share has been sold off aggressively and was previously in a high bearish momentum regime while approaching oversold. A base has developed and this may be a RANGE to starting building a buy/long position with the expectation that the base is maintained over the near term followed by a potential bullish reversal. Buy at current levels or lower (traders could consider starting with a 1/3 of the position). As always, traders could consider the following if/when the prices approaches the target: bank/take profit, partially scale out, adjust the stop-loss to protect profits. Time stop: 09 June 2025. TRADING LEVELS: Entry: 17124 (or better) Target: 19000 Stop-loss: 15900 Previous Post: ASPEN PHARMACARE Noted: Above-Average Volume (4.5m Shares) + Value Traded (R779m) Tuesday 10 December 2024 (Time: Pre-Market) 10-day average volume: 1.4m shares 30-day average volume: 1.2m shares Yesterday's volume: 4.5m shares Value trade: R779m Previous Post: ASPEN PHARMACARE The Bull, Bear & Base Case Thursday 28 November 2024 (Time: Pre-Market, 06h32) This is an update. Please scroll down for the previous posts. The price action remains unhealthy, with strong selling pressure, with my view being that is that it is too early to buy, however, it may be worthwhile adding it to your watchlist for when the price action stabilizes/improves. Bear Case = A print lower, with a very slow recovery which includes opportunity cost. Base Case = A print lower, with a slower, but eventual recovery. Bull Case = A print lower, followed an overshoot of the ~R160-ish support range, followed by a relatively quick price recovery. The dotted arrow represents my best-probability price action scenario. Bear Case = A print lower, with a very slow recovery which includes opportunity cost. Base Case = A print lower, with a slower, but eventual recovery (possible little downside from here). Bull Case = A print lower, followed an overshoot (false breakdown) of the ~R160-ish support range, followed by a relatively quick price recovery (possible little downside from here). Adding to the above, as of yesterday's close, the price action data was as follows: Previous Post: Aspen Pharmacare: Unhealthy Price Action, But Flashing For Opportunity Wednesday 23 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market Ticker: APN I am fully aware of the heavy selling pressure and poor price action, however, I am starting to notice readings coming through which states that the reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position. While the readings are there, it may just be sensible to wait until the price stops going down and starts to form a base...or gives us a 'flush low' and a V-shaped reversal setup. Notice the 5 to 8 week reading also stating that selling is aggressive and that we should wait for the price to stabilize? I drew these lines a few weeks ago, thinking R160 or thereabout would be a level of interest. Previous Post: Aspen Pharmacare: The Long and Short of It - Thursday, 05 September 2024 Pre-Market Ticker: APN Within the span of 19 months, the share has provided clients of Unum Capital with two opportunities to profit. These opportunities came on both the long (buy) and short (sell) side, benefiting from a rising and falling share price. The short leg provided short term traders with 3x opportunities to sell above 23500c. Although the share briefly test the stop-loss level (a spike), the share pullback was in line with the view. The updated chart, with the time-stamped ideas, is shown below. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade MTN Group  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za MTN Daily Chart as of Thursday 23 January at 15h29 Previous Post: MTN Group +R25 Rally / Now Short Term Overbought / Updated Model Reading Analyst Price Action Model as of Tuesday 21 January at 09h15 Model Summary: The MTN GROUP stock is currently in a bullish trend, but the 7-day trend is overbought. Traders are advised to not chase the price and look for opportunities to short-sell if the price fails to hold key levels. The medium-term outlook is also bullish with aggressive buying, but caution is advised against chasing the price. The long-term outlook is bullish with a strong attempt at a bullish reversal. Current 7-Day Trend: Overbought. Current 14-Day Trend: Bullish. Short-Term Buy/Long Position Opportunity? No. Do not chase the price. If the price fails to hold the highs, the 8-EMA may be a short-sell target. Medium-Term Outlook (2 to 4 Weeks): The medium-term outlook is aggressive buying but do not chase. Look for an opportunity to short-sell if the price fails to hold prior session range highs back to the 8-EMA. Long-Term Outlook (5 to 8 Weeks): The long-term outlook is bullish. There is a strong attempt at a bullish reversal following a consolidation phase. Previous Post: Wednesday 27 November 2024 (15h24) MTN GROUP R10 Lower + New Levels of Interest + Falling Wedge Structure The share us R10 lower, with the model having alerted traders to monitor for a failure to hold the highs. Take note of this falling wedge structure on the share Previous Post: 18 September (Real-Time: 13h49) Ticker: MTN Technical Condition and Price Action Probability Daily Chart Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Capitec Bank   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za The following chart is published as a result of a client query regarding Capitec Bank. "Hi Lester. I want to get your take on Capitec potential levels. Where do you see support levels for the stock? My response was as follows: Good day {client name}. Support doesn't appear to be very clear, but recently I marked these levels on the CPI chart. The blue range (R2785 to R2836) being at/around the 200-day SMA ( a range to cover shorts or re-enter a long for a short term rebound ). As always, I expect an overshoot to the downside.  Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Glencore  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Glencore is trading (higher) in line with the model reading (published on Sunday 12 January) which stated that "the share is attempting a rebound and could consolidate before continuing higher". This is a snapshot of the share price looked like on Friday morning at 09h30. Previous Post: Glencore Plc: Attempting A Bullish Reversal (Published Sunday 12 January) Analyst's Price Action Model What is the overall picture here? Well, based on our current analysis, the 7-day trend for GLN is strong, indicating a bullish momentum in the short term. However, the 14-day trend shows a rangebound pattern, suggesting some indecision in the medium term. What about the long-term outlook? The long-term trend is also rangebound, but within a weaker regime. This suggests that while there might be some recovery potential, we need to be cautious. How should we interpret the short-term bullish momentum? It looks like Glencore might be attempting a bullish reversal after a period of consolidation. This could be an opportunity for a potential upside. What about the rangebound patterns in the medium and long term? These suggest that the market is still trying to find its direction. We might see further consolidation or even a potential downward correction before a sustained uptrend can be established. What's the best course of action? Given the current mixed signals, a cautious approach is recommended. We can look for strong bids and a break above the current range high as a potential trigger for a recovery buy or long position. However, we need to monitor the market closely for any signs of weakness. Anything else we should keep in mind? Yes, it's important to remember that these are just short-term and medium-term readings. The long-term trend is still relatively weak, so any bullish move could be short-lived. GLN daily Chart as of Friday 10 January 2025 at 10h21 Previous Post: Glencore Plc: Zooming Out (02 January 2025) Short Term: Approaching oversold and rebounding Long Term: Weak and in a downward trend; Looking to re-test the previous breakout level of R70 as per the monthly chart. GLN Monthly Chart as of Friday 27 December 2024 at 11h43