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- Kumba Iron Ore: Declining Close To R20 (R368 to R349)
Trade Kumba Iron Ore with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Update on previous post where I discussed the extension vs VWAP https://www.unum.capital/post/kio-extended-vwap Updated chart below. Previous Post: Kumba Iron Ore: Technically Extended vs YTD Anchored VWAP (Short Term/Active Traders Consider Reducing) KIO was recently featured as a bullish opportunity (07-January) at around R325. It has since rallied to above R370. Original Post Here: https://www.unum.capital/post/200d-tbs-out-more Analyst's Price Action Model Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Event Risk: Sasol Production Update Pushes Share Lower
Trade Sasol Ltd with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za As noted: "These levels are subject to change as the price action/news flow develops or as the underlying commodity adjusts." Previous Post: How To Trade: Sasol Ltd Among the various technical considerations that the price action model provides, one of the most common is informing traders when NOT to chase a share. In other words, when NOT to buy as the potential for a pullback is great and that the reward-to-risk is unappealing. Reviewing the model in the evening, the automated guide gives us readings which go along the lines of "Aggressive buying, but do not chase..." If you follow my model, then you've seen it many times before. Such was the case with Sasol on Friday evening where the model for the short term (1 to 10 days) was as follows: "Aggressive buying is underway, but do not chase. Look for the share to overshoot or fail to hold the prior session highs to short/sell back to the 8-day EMA". The time-stamped model reading is shown below: What has subsequently occurred? Sasol failed to hold Friday's highs and has experienced a sharp bearish reversal on Monday (20-January) as well as yesterday (21-January). If you are a short term trader, this seemingly insignificant piece of information has the ability to help you do the two things our research strives to do: (1) manage risk (protect capital) and (2) uncover opportunity (make money) . As of yesterday's close, the model is as follows: Take note of the short term reading: "The share is consolidating within an upward trend. If the 8-day EMA has been breached, use the 21-day EMA as a potential buy range". Medium term: no reading available. Take note of the long term reading: "Strong attempt at a bullish reversal following an aggressive sell-off" On the chart below, the 21-EMA is white sloping line. This is also in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone. These levels are subject to change as the price action/news flow develops or as the underlying commodity adjusts. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- How To Trade: Absa Group (ABG)
Trade Absa Group with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Key Takeaways : 1. Fundamentals Remain Appealing 2. Currently Unwinding From An Overbought Range 3. The next-best probability re-accumulation range is between 17930c and 18150c. This range is subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. In recent months, we have expressed our views around buy/long side opportunities in ABSA, with these short to medium term structures coming to fruition as the group reported results that were above analyst consensus expectations. The surge to above R195 placed the share in short term overbought territory, with the price action model confirming that the reward-to-risk for the short term traders had become unappealing. Below, the time-stamped model is shown: What has transpired since? As noted, the share traded into the 19600c/19900c range and has since experienced a period of distribution (selling) to below 18700c. Note the short term deteriorating candle structure. Where is the next best level to accumulate? Both the 50-day and 75-EMA continue to trend higher, with the price trading above these areas. The share price is also trading above it's rising 21-week EMA. There is an unfilled gap at 18203c, which is broadly in line with both the 75-day and 21week EMA. These are approximate areas meaning that the price can overshoot to the downside (or not reach it at all). For now, my next-best probability re-accumulation range is between 17930c and 18150c. This range is subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. Analyst's Price Action Model Previous Post: ABSA GROUP Voluntary Trading Upside Accelerates Fundamental Re-Rating Coming off a low base, materially stronger earnings growth is expected for 2024. The share has materially outperformed it's peer group this week but remains muted over the long term. This gives the share room to advance over the medium. To re-iterate, my long term target is R220. Please scroll down for the previous posts. Previous Post: ABSA GROUP: Absolute & Relative Re-Rating Thursday 05 December 2024 (Time: 06:21) In March, below R145, Clients were alerted to an opportunity to accumulate, driven by the model reading. Yesterday, the share was the strongest performer amongst the financials. On an absolute basis, the share is trading at multi-week highs. On a relative basis, the share is looking to breach it's downward trend vs the JSE Top 40 Index. To me, it looks the like the start of a re-rating and the potential start of relative outperformance. Remember, it's been very cheap with an appealing valuation. The ratio chart is shown below: Previous Post: Absa Group: Relative Value Monday 25 November 2024 (Time Published: 06h28) Fundamentally undervalued + has not participated in the re-rating of South African equities. Whilst it is trading off the Q2 lows, the share remains in a multi-year consolidation phase and off it's all-time highs. Long Term Target = R220. View as of Thursday 21 November at 09h59. Previous Post: TRADER'S TOOLBOX: Absa's 3 Major Turning Points - Tuesday, 20 August 2024 The major turning points in the share were late March, mid June and early in August. These 2 longs and 1 short triggers helped traders position for the subsequent moves to take advantage of cash-flow generating opportunities. BUY/LONG Discussed in detail, along with the Tactical Trading Guide on Monday, 25 March. The charts below are also adjusted to include dividends. Short/Sell (Reading/Chart 1) Warning that a buy/long was unappealing. Short/Sell (Reading/Chart 2) Alerting to a 1 to 2 day/week short/sell setup. Buy/Long - Monitor For Bullish Reversal Opportunity V-Shaped reversal followed by massive gap up during yesterday's session (earnings release). Clients of Unum Capital are often alerted to key technical developments which include readings from the Tactical Trading Guide. This acts as a guide which helps to identify both opportunities and risk. To become a client, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011384 2923 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- SA Equities: Trading Commentary (Full Coverage)
Trade JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. MEDIUM TERM (APPROXIMATELY 2 to 4 WEEKS) - SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE PRICE ACTION DEVELOPS NOTE: THE SHORT TERM (1 TO 10 DAYS) AND LONG TERM (5 TO 8 WEEK) READINGS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE S/TERM or L/TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital (Data as of end of day Wednesday 22 January 2025)
- NU Holdings: Strong Rally Off Oversold Levels / Now +18.5%
Access Global Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za NU Holdings - Approaching Appealing Re-Entry Levels. Here's What The Model Says Thursday 19 December 2024 (Time: 20h18, South Africa / U.S. Trading Session) Commentary & data on the slide below: Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- iShares Global Industrials ETF (EXI)
Access Global ETFs with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za EXI offers access to global industrials, providing reasonably marketlike coverage in a stable, accessible package. It excludes smaller firms by rule, favoring large-caps instead. The fund slightly overweights the firms that already dominate the space due to its market-cap weighting, but avoids geographic biases overall. Constructive technical setup. Short term, very overbought, however, over the medium term, the consolidation points to a group that is not overextended. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Price Action Model: Sappi / Mondi / Naspers / Prosus / Richemont / BTI
Trade JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- TECHNICAL SUMMARY See Which Shares Are Overbought/Oversold On A Daily Time Frame
Trade JSE Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Strongest/Most Overbought Weakest/Most Oversold Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital (Published end of day on Wednesday, 22 January 2025)
- During The Last Session, Buyers & Sellers Were Most Aggressive In These Shares
DOMINANT BUYING FROM OPEN TO CLOSE (DAILY) DOMINANT SELLING FROM OPEN TO CLOSE (DAILY) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital (Published end of day on Wednesday, 22 January 2025)
- JSE Banks Trading At A 3-Month Relative Low
Trade JSE Banks with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Update: Our idea on 10 December was to rotate out of JSE banks (relative to the broader market). Today, the share trades at a 3-month relative to the JSE Top 40 Index. Previous Post: JSE Banks Are Overbought On A Relative Basis. Consider Rotating Out (10 December 2024) JSE Banks Relative To JSE Top 40 Index Previous Post: Monday 02 December 2024 (Pre-Market) This chart is available to NON-CLIENTS of Unum Capital. Specifically, if you are: New to financial markets and looking to start your trading journey. An experienced trader, but looking to elevate your trading. Interested in an ACTIVE TRADING approach. Interested in a high quality, award-winning research. Interested in insights that informs and identifies both risks and opportunities. Should you you fit into any of the above categories, we would love a few minutes of your time to be able to further explain why you should consider Unum Capital your trading partner. To access, e-mail your name and contact details to lester@unum.co.za To open a trading account, e-mail lester@unum.co.za Key Features of Chart: Trading at the upper boundary of a multi-year rising channel Technical Regime: Medium term (Weekly Chart) = High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought RANKED & RECOGNIZED: Unum Research Attains 3rd Place In The 2024 Securities Broker Awards In September 2024, Unum Research was recognized for it's capabilities. Among well-respected boutiques and ahead of household giants such as FNB and Nedbank, the unit attained 3rd place for the period under review. Commenting on the award, Analyst: Lester Davids remarked: "The award speaks to the high quality of output being recognized by our valued clients as well as the consistency of insights and actionable opportunities that has been delivered over the past 8 years." Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- NETFLIX All-Time High Following Strong Results
Trade Global Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital
- Siemens: Approaching Technical Target
Trade Global Shares with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za As always, traders could consider the following if/when the prices approaches the target: bank/take profit, partially scale out, adjust the stop-loss to protect profits. Previous Post: Looking To Benefit From The Data Centre Boom? Consider Dax-Listed Siemens https://www.unum.capital/post/siemens-data-centre-boom Tuesday 03 December 2024 (Time: 08h25) Following it's multi-month consolidation, strong price action is developing below resistance A break above Є191.00 targets Є220.00 Stop-loss is a weekly close below $182.00 The insight below is AI-assisted Siemens is actively involved in the data center boom, both through its financing solutions and its technological advancements. Here's a breakdown of Siemens' role in the data center industry: Financing Solutions Siemens Financial Services (SFS) provides financing solutions for data center projects, helping businesses acquire the necessary infrastructure and technology. SFS has financed several large-scale data center projects, including a 16 MW greenfield data center in Offenbach am Main, Germany. Technological Advancements Siemens Smart Infrastructure develops innovative solutions for data center power, cooling, and security systems. Siemens' technology helps data centers achieve greater energy efficiency, reliability, and sustainability. Siemens is investing in expanding its US manufacturing capabilities for data center equipment, including a new $150 million facility in Fort Worth, Texas. Overall, Siemens is a key player in the data center industry, providing both financial and technological solutions to support the growing demand for data center capacity. Additional Insights from Siemens: The data center industry is experiencing explosive growth due to the increasing reliance on cloud computing and digital services. Data centers are becoming critical infrastructure for businesses of all sizes. Siemens is committed to helping data centers meet the challenges of the future by providing innovative solutions that are both efficient and sustainable. On 10 January, clients of Unum Capital were alerted to an opportunity in Digital Realty Trust (DLR) a major beneficiary of the growth in artificial intelligence and data centre infrastructure












