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Trade the Top 40 Index with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Further Update: The key message on Tuesday morning was: "don't press shorts i.e. don't be aggressive on the short/sell side". The index has since risen by over 2300 points (as of Friday midday). Well done to traders who heeded the call. Previous Post: Manage Risk + Make Money: How Unum Capital Clients' Benefit From Timely Views Well done to clients who continue to capitalize on the opportunities at hand. Clients of Unum Capital have access to timely views that help to achieve two goals: (1) manage risks and (2) uncover opportunities. Below, the JSE Top 40 Index is an example of clients have benefitted from timeous views: Our view on 27 September (pre-market) : "Short Term Overbought + Downside Risk" (see insert on chart) ... the index declined by 4000 points over the subsequent 3 months. Our view on 14 January (pre-market): "Don't press, don't be too aggressive on the short/sell side" (see insert on chart) ... market higher by 1400 points. Previous Post: JSE Top 40 Index: 200-Day Breached, But Caution On Pressing Shorts Too Hard (+ Price Action Model) - Tuesday 14 January 2025 Historical price action developments/trading setups have shown us that when a price has been in a downward trend, there is always a risk that the downward momentum slows, which can then be followed by the start of a 'base formation' or bullish reversal. Taking an ultra short term view, we are aware that the index has been in a downward trend, with ' high bullish momentum / approaching oversold ' being the current reading. For traders looking to enter short/sell positions, the current level may not be optimal. Why? One scenario is that the price could continue to trade lower in the following session (today, 14 January) which can be followed by a reclaim of the prior day lows and a bullish reversal. I know the popular saying is ' trade what you see ' however my goal as an analyst is to prepare you in order to recognize opportunities and risks, with various price action scenarios to consider . Bottom line: the index can trade lower in the short term, however, be careful to not press you shorts too aggressively around these level. Analyst's Price Action Model as of Monday 13 January at 13h55 Q: What is the overall trend of the JSE TOP 40 Index? A: The overall trend is bearish. This is indicated by the "Aggressive Selling" in both the medium and long-term price action readings. Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The 7-day trend is also bearish, with high bearish momentum and an approaching oversold condition. Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The 14-day trend is very bearish. Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: Yes, the reward-to-risk ratio is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position, but this is only for the short-term (1 to 10 trading days). Q: What is a potential scenario for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: Aggressive selling is underway therefore, traders should wait for lower time frames to stabilize before considering any action. Q: What is a potential scenario for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: Aggressive selling is underway however, traders should look for support at prior swing lows to capture minor rebounds. In summary: The JSE TOP 40 Index is currently in a bearish trend. While there is a short-term opportunity for a small buy/long position, aggressive selling is advised for the medium and long term. Traders should wait for lower time frames to stabilize before considering any action. JSE Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of 13h58 on Monday 12 January 2025 Previous Post (Sunday 12 January 2025): JSE Top 40 Index: Approaching It's 200-Day But Vulnerable To A Breach Update: Breached short term support Rally rejected into the declining 8-day EMA Trading below it's declining 21-day EMA Trading below it's 75-day EMA, which has started to turn lower Trading below it's 21-week EMA, which has started to turn lower Monthly time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Weak Daily time frame = Weak Above a gradually rising 50-week EMA Above a gradually rising 200-SMA SMA Analyst's Price Action Model Regime: Monthly, Weekly & Daily Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of the close on Friday 10 January 2025. Resistance and Support zones are subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. Previous Post: Update: Trading in a tight consolidation range Rejected into the declining 21-day EMA Rejected into the declining 75-day EMA Shifting to and consolidating below a flat 21-week EMA Deteriorating candle structure at short term support Above a rising 50-week EMA Above a rising 200-SMA SMA Previous Post: TRADING The JSE Top 40 Index On 27 September 2024, research highlighted the index trading in a short term overbought range, from which we subsequently saw a retracement and unwind from these overbought conditions. Over the 3 months, the index has traded in a sideways range, reflecting a period of distribution among several large and mid cap constituents. The following key developments are also noted: The price has shifted below it's 50-day EMA (the 50-day EMA has also lost it's upside momentum and is turning lower). The price is breaking below it's 21-week EMA - a level which previous held as support on retracements. The price continues to trade above it's 50-week EMA, which is sloping upwards. This is a positive development. The price continues to trade above it's 200-day SMA, which is sloping upwards. This is a positive development. The 50-week EMA and 200-day SMA are currently aligned. This range could act as a level of support on a further retracement. Do however note that the price has the ability to overshoot this range and test the swing low of 11 September at 72991. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade FX: USD/ZAR  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za Last week, before trading commenced in Asia, our key view around the Rand was that the USDZAR pair was approaching short term overbought conditions and that any failure to hold the range highs could result in a bearish reversal from the overbought regime. On Monday, the pair traded above the previous session (Friday) highs before developing a long upper tail which signaled an exhaustion of the bullish momentum. From above R19.21, the pair reached a low of R18.63 before midday on Friday , breaching it's 8-day EMA but remaining above it's rising 21-day EMA. USDZAR Daily Chart as of Friday 17 January at 14h31 In case you may have missed the previous note, please scroll down. Previous Post: Before You Trade USD/ZAR, Read This (12 January) Analyst's Price Action Model What is the overall trend for USD/ZAR? The overall trend for USD/ZAR is bullish across all timeframes. What is the short-term (1 to 10 days) price action reading? The short-term price action is very strong and bullish. Buyers are in control, but it's advised not to chase the price. If the price fails to hold the highs, the 8-EMA could be a short-sell target. What is the medium-term (2 to 4 weeks) price action reading? The medium-term price action is also very strong and bullish. Buyers are in control, but again, it's advised not to chase the price. If the price fails to hold the highs, the 8-EMA could be a short-sell target. What is the long-term (5 to 8 weeks) price action reading? The long-term price action is showing aggressive buying underway. However, it's advised not to chase the price. Look for an opportunity to short-sell back to the 8-EMA if the price fails to hold prior session range highs. In summary, the USD/ZAR is in a strong uptrend across all timeframes. Traders should be cautious and avoid chasing the price. Short-selling opportunities may arise if the price fails to hold key levels or becomes extended vs key moving averages. Points To Ponder: The pair is trading at an extended level above it's 75-day exponential moving average. Although extended, it is not extreme compared to historical distance readings. The pair is above a rising 8-day EMA. The pair is above a rising 21-day EMA. The 75-day EMA has turned upward. The 21-week EMA has turned upward. The 50-week EMA has started to turn upward. The 200-day SMA is trading sideways. Regime for each time frame Daily time frame = High bullish momentum/ Approaching overbought Weekly time frame = Overbought Monthly time frame = Strong Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade JSE Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   MTN Group   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Analyst's Price Action Model as end of day Friday 17 January The overall strategy for MTN GROUP appears to be cautious optimism, with a bias towards buying on dips. Current 7-Day Trend: The 7-day trend is bullish with high bullish momentum. However, it is also approaching overbought territory. Current 14-Day Trend: The 14-day trend is very bullish. Short-Term Outlook: The short-term outlook is mixed. While there is aggressive buying, the market is overbought on the lower time frame. This suggests a potential for consolidation or a minor retracement. Medium-Term Outlook (2 to 4 weeks): The medium-term outlook is bullish. However, it cautions against chasing the price and suggests looking for overshoots or failure to hold prior session range highs to short-sell back to the 8-EMA. Long-Term Outlook (5 to 8 weeks): The long-term outlook is bullish. It indicates a strong attempt at a bullish reversal following a consolidation phase. In Summary: The short-term view suggests caution due to overbought conditions. However, the medium-term and long-term outlooks are bullish. Traders should be prepared to buy on dips, but also be mindful of potential short-selling opportunities if the price overshoots or fails to hold key levels. MTN Daily Chart as of end of day on Friday 17 January 2025 Related Posts: https://www.unum.capital/post/mtn-group-here-s-what-the-data-says-thursday-18-july-2024 https://www.unum.capital/post/mtn-group-over-the-six-month-the-share-has-rallied-by-36 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Naspers   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Naspers is starting to stabilize following a sharp drop to short term oversold levels. Using both manual and automated insights, traders/clients were well-prepared to capitalize on a potential rebound. Prior to this prints at extremely overbought levels (early October) as well as the note on 05 January (before the massive sell-off) considered the potential for downside (driven by the model i.e. Tactical Trading Guide). Well done to traders/clients who may have capitalized on the opportunities. Previous Post: Relative The Top 40, Naspers Is Trading In A Short Term Oversold Range (Monday 13 January) at 15h08 NPN Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index Daily Chart as of Monday 15h08 Analyst's price Action Model Reading on Monday 13 January at 15h08 - "Expect a small rebound" Previous Post: Naspers: Well Done, Short Sellers (Tuesday 07 January) Naspers: The share has fallen sharpy, in line with the model reading (published 05 January) which showed that the declining 8/21-EMA could be used as a level into which to initiate short/sell positions. On the back of geopolitical company-related developments (China/military etc.), the share declined by over 9%, reached it's rising 50-week moving average and it's 200-day simple moving average. The candle structure remains poor, with potential for further weakness. For traders looking to re-enter, it would be best to wait until there is stabilization on the lower time frames (1-hour and 4-hour etc.). The pullback is also in line with the Tactical Trading Guide seen at the peak on 02 October (peak), which warned traders that the reward-to-risk was unappealing and that a consolidation and pullback can be expected. See the time-stamped reading below: Previous Post: Naspers Price and Trend Analysis (Sunday, 05 January 2025) Price Action Model with 3x Time Frames AI-Assisted Summary of the above Price Action Model Overall, the price action model suggests a bearish short-term trend with a potential for bullish momentum in the medium and long term. Traders should be cautious in the short term and look for opportunities to sell on rebounds. In the medium and long term, they should look for minor support levels to buy into for a potential rebound. Price Chart With Moving Average Trends Technical Trend Ratings (Monthly, Weekly & Daily) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   JSE Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

DOMINANT BUYING FROM OPEN TO CLOSE (WEEKLY) DOMINANT SELLING FROM OPEN TO CLOSE (WEEKLY) DOMINANT BUYING FROM OPEN TO CLOSE (DAILY) DOMINANT SELLING FROM OPEN TO CLOSE (DAILY) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Access Global ETFs  with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za Why EWZ? 1. Exposure to large and mid-sized companies in Brazil 2. Targeted access to the Brazilian stock market 3. Use to express a single country view Analyst's Price Action Model Overall Strategy for iShares Brazil ETF (EWZ) Combining the short-term, medium-term, and long-term trends, the overall outlook for the iShares Brazil ETF is cautiously optimistic. While the short-term trend is attempting a bullish reversal, the medium-term outlook is uncertain. The long-term trend, however, is showing signs of attempting to turn around after a period of strong selling pressure. This suggests that there might be potential for long-term upside, but investors should remain cautious in the near term. Current 7-Day Trend: Strong Current 14-Day Trend: Attempting a Bullish Reversal Following a Consolidation Phase Short-Term Outlook (1 to 10 days): The short-term view points to a potential for a buy/long position as the 7-day trend is strong and the 14-day trend is attempting a bullish reversal. However, the recent consolidation phase suggests that caution is warranted. Medium-Term Outlook (2 to 4 weeks): The medium-term outlook is uncertain, as there is no reading available for this time frame. Long-Term Outlook (5 to 8 weeks): The long-term outlook is cautiously optimistic. The previously strong selling pressure is now attempting to turn around, suggesting potential for long-term upside. However, it is important to monitor the situation closely as the long-term trend is still developing. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Global Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za You've probably seen news around Nike's recent underperformance. You've probably also seen newer brands making waves in the athleisure community. Can I show you something different? Something which you may not have come across? An angle you may not have considered? The chart below is a ratio or relative chart of Nike compared to the S&P 500 Index which extends back 40 years to 1984. In the lower panel, the blue/red line represents the ratio's distance versus the 200-week simple moving average. At current levels, the extension is 54%, which is well below historical norms and in line with the extensions seen in March 2000 (also -54%) and October 1984 (-56%). These prior extensions represented coincided with a share price that had severely underperformed the S&P 500 Index however, subsequently reversed it's underperformance to develop a new bull trend. At current levels, the reward-to-risk appears appealing a for a buy/long position within a medium to long term portfolio. Let me know your thoughts. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Access Global ETFs   with Unum Capital. To get started, email lester@unum.co.za IXJ offers marketlike exposure to global pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device companies. The fund pulls from the S&P Global 1200 universe, which effectively screens out small-caps, giving the fund a large-cap tilt compared to our benchmark. Aside from that, geographic and sector weights look neutral and make it a viable entry-point to global healthcare. BlackRock Fund Advisors uses a sampling approach to indexing. This means the fund may not hold all the stocks of the underlying index but will hold securities that collectively have the same investment profile. Stocks within IXJ are selected and weighted by float-adjusted market-cap. The index is rebalanced quarterly. False breakdown (Scoop n Score Setup), looking to reclaim it's position above the demand-supply zone. IXJ Daily Chart as of 17 January at 12h58 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Global Shares   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za EOG Resources, Inc. engages in the exploration, development, production and marketing of crude oil and natural gas. It operates through the United States, Trinidad, and Other International geographical segments. Consensus Price Targets + Analyst's Ratings EOG Daily Chart as of Friday 17 January at 11h47 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade   Boxer Retail   with Unum Capital. To get started, email   lester@unum.co.za Boxer Retail is developing a base from it's IPO swing highs. At current levels, the share is trading at the upper end of the range and may be looking to emerge above the supply zone, which may set up a new leg higher. BOX Daily Chart as of Friday 17 January at 10h27 Doesn't it remind you of the We Buy Cars IPO base? WBC Daily Chart as of Friday 17 January at 10h42 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital