Search this site

Overall View The model presents a bearish outlook across short, medium, and long-term timeframes. This suggests that the market is currently in a downtrend and traders should be cautious about taking long positions. Timeframe-Specific Analysis Short-Term (1-10 Trading Days):  The 7-day trend is bearish with high momentum, indicating a strong downward move. Aggressive selling is likely and traders should wait for lower timeframes to stabilize before entering any trades. Medium-Term (2-4 Weeks):  The 14-day trend is also bearish, reinforcing the short-term view. The market is persistently weak, and traders should monitor if price can reclaim prior session lows for a potential bullish reversal trade. Long-Term (5-8 Weeks):  The long-term trend is very weak, suggesting a sustained downtrend. Traders should wait until the market stabilizes on a lower timeframe before considering any trades.

Trade the S&P 500 Index  with Unum Capital. To trade global instruments, you will need an offshore account. To get started, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923 The index has retraced in line with the model reading, with deteriorating candle structure reflecting indecision with a bearish bias among market participants. In the ultra short term, the 5844 to 5864 level has been defended by buyers, with a strong rebound off this level during Friday's trading session. This support zone is in line withy the 75-day EMA (now trading sideways) but below the declining 21-day EMA with could continue to act as a resistance level. Do note, on a medium and long term basis, in the index could be entering a period of consolidation, having previously been overbought (with a pullback and consolidation having been the best probability outcomes). The 200-day SMA is at 5573 (subject to change). Previous Post: S&P 500 INDEX Weakening In Line With Model Reading On 05 December research highlighted the overextended level of the index, sighting the risk of a medium term retracement. The index subsequently consolidated which was followed by a sharp sell-off, triggered by the announcement of an interest rate cut, which was seen as a so-called 'hawkish cut'. The index entered ultra short term oversold conditions, finding support on it's rising 75-day EMA, which was followed by a rebound. The current price action reflects a mixed bag, with a sightly bearish bias i.e. a tapering of the previous aggressive upward momentum into a neutral regime. Comment as of 30 December 2024 at 12h35. Previous Post: S&P 500 INDEX Risk of Medium Term Retracement Thursday 05 December 2024 (Time: 21h49) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

On 27 September 2024, research highlighted the index trading in a short term overbought range, from which we subsequently saw a retracement and unwind from these overbought conditions. Over the 3 months, the index has traded in a sideways range, reflecting a period of distribution among several large and mid cap constituents. The following key developments are also noted: The price has shifted below it's 50-day EMA (the 50-day EMA has also lost it's upside momentum and is turning lower). The price is breaking below it's 21-week EMA - a level which previous held as support on retracements. The price continues to trade above it's 50-week EMA, which is sloping upwards. This is a positive development. The price continues to trade above it's 200-day SMA, which is sloping upwards. This is a positive development. The 50-week EMA and 200-day SMA are currently aligned. This range could act as a level of support on a further retracement. Do however note that the price has the ability to overshoot this range and test the swing low of 11 September at 72991. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade Spot Gold (XAU/USD) with Unum Capital. To trade global instruments, you will need an offshore account. To get started, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923 This guide provides a multi-timeframe analysis of Spot Gold's price action, covering short-term (1-10 days), medium-term (2-4 weeks), and long-term (5-8 weeks) perspectives. 7-Day Trend:  Neutral 14-Day Trend:  Rangebound 1. Short-Term Price Action Reading (1 to 10 Trading Days) The 7-day trend is neutral, indicating indecision in the market direction. The 14-day trend is rangebound, suggesting a lack of clear momentum in either direction. This implies that the price is consolidating within a specific range, and a breakout from this range could trigger a new trend. 2. Medium-Term Price Action Reading (2 to 4 Weeks) - Apply Daily/Weekly Moving Averages Where Applicable. The medium-term trend is bullish, but currently lacks directional bias. This means that while the overall trend is positive, the market isn't showing a strong inclination to move higher or lower. A breakout from the current range is needed to establish a clearer direction. 3. Long-Term Price Action Reading (5 to 8 Weeks) - Apply Weekly Moving Averages & Time Frames (Not Daily). The long-term trend is consolidating in an upward trend. This indicates that the market is moving higher over the long term, but it's currently in a phase of consolidation. Once the price breaks above the 8-EMA (Exponential Moving Average), it can be considered a confirmation of the uptrend, and the 21-EMA can be used as an accumulation range. Overall Interpretation: The price action model suggests that the XAUUSD is currently in a consolidation phase across all time frames. While the long-term trend is bullish, the short-term and medium-term trends are less clear. A breakout from the current range in either direction could provide a clearer indication of the next move. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Monday 06 January 2025 (Time: Pre-Market) Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from the analyst's Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) . The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames : short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change , based on the development of the subsequent price action. MEDIUM TERM (APPROXIMATELY 2 to 4 WEEKS) - SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE PRICE ACTION DEVELOPS NOTE: THE SHORT TERM (1 TO 10 DAYS) AND LONG TERM (5 TO 8 WEEK) READINGS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE S/TERM or L/TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA DUE TO TIME/CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS, THOSE TIME FRAMES ARE NOT SHOWN HERE .

Developments in the US labor market and the broader US economy is one of the key data points which the U.S Federal Reserve considers in it's decision to either hold, cut or raise interest rates. For example, a buoyant labor market is associate with a strong economy, which has the ability to place upward pressure on inflation and in turn, requires higher interest rates. This economic scenario is a positive for those looking for a higher US Dollar which will benefit from higher interest rates and possibly higher interest rate differentials. Conversely, a weak labor market is associate with a slowing economy, which has the ability to place downward pressure on inflation and in turn, leaves room for the lower interest rates. This economic scenario is a positive for those looking for a lower US Dollar which becomes a casualty of lower interest rates and possibly lower interest rate differentials. For example, versus the European Union. The data point, U.S Non-farm Payrolls will be released at 3:30pm on Friday 10 January. It is highly anticipated and is closely monitored by market participants from every corner of the globe. The reaction to the release creates volatility around selected instruments, however this also creates opportunities to trade and potentially derive at a profit. The consensus is for the U.S. economy to have added 150,000 jobs for the month of December. Missing these expectations or coming in line is likely to place pressure on the USD while print well above this figure could support continued buying activity in the USD. Among others, here are three instruments by which traders can participant in and potentially profit from as the market positions and reacts to the release. Shown below are the daily charts, with potential direction should the payrolls come in line, miss or exceeded consensus expectations. 1. FX: EUR/USD 2. Spot Gold XAUUSD 3. FX: USD/ZAR To trade , or open a new account , contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk : E-Mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Subject to change as the price action develops. Below is the data as of Friday's close. Previous Post (10-Dec-2024): JSE Banks Are Overbought On A Relative Basis. Consider Rotating Out. CHART: JSE Banks Relative To JSE Top 40 Index Previous Post: Monday 02 December 2024 (Pre-Market) This chart is available to NON-CLIENTS of Unum Capital. Specifically, if you are: New to financial markets and looking to start your trading journey. An experienced trader, but looking to elevate your trading. Interested in an ACTIVE TRADING approach. Interested in a high quality, award-winning research. Interested in insights that informs and identifies both risks and opportunities. Should you you fit into any of the above categories, we would love a few minutes of your time to be able to further explain why you should consider Unum Capital your trading partner. To access, e-mail your name and contact details to   lester@unum.co.za    To open a trading account, e-mail   lester@unum.co.za    Key Features of Chart: Trading at the upper boundary of a multi-year rising channel Technical Regime: Medium term (Weekly Chart) = High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought RANKED & RECOGNIZED: Unum Research Attains 3rd Place In The 2024 Securities Broker Awards In September 2024, Unum Research was recognized for it's capabilities.  Among well-respected boutiques and ahead of household giants such as FNB and Nedbank, the unit attained 3rd place for the period under review. Commenting on the award, Analyst: Lester Davids remarked: "The award speaks to the high quality of output being recognized by our valued clients as well as the consistency of insights and actionable opportunities that has been delivered over the past 8 years." Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Price Action Model with 3x Time Frames AI-Assisted Summary of the above Price Action Model Overall, the price action model suggests a bearish short-term trend with a potential for bullish momentum in the medium and long term. Traders should be cautious in the short term and look for opportunities to sell on rebounds. In the medium and long term, they should look for minor support levels to buy into for a potential rebound. Price Chart With Moving Average Trends Technical Trend Ratings (Monthly, Weekly & Daily) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Well done to traders who may have capitalized on the move. Original post below (please scroll down). Previous Post: MTN GROUP R10 Lower + New Levels of Interest + Falling Wedge Structure Wednesday 27 November 2024 (15h24) The share us R10 lower, with the model having alerted traders to monitor for a failure to hold the highs. Take note of this falling wedge structure on the share Previous Post: 18 September (Real-Time: 13h49) Ticker: MTN Technical Condition and Price Action Probability Daily Chart Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Overall Trend:  The market appears to be in a relatively strong uptrend with a significant portion of constituents showing bullish momentum. Data as of end of day Friday 27 December 2024 Breakdown: Overbought:  11 constituents High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought:  11 constituents Strong:  30 constituents Neutral:  27 constituents Weak:  19 constituents High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold:  0 constituents Oversold:  3 constituents Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Absa showing relative strength vs Satrix Financials (STXFIN) Monthly Chart = Important. Note the igniting bar + 7-month RSI Previous Post: ABSA GROUP Voluntary Trading Upside Accelerates Fundamental Re-Rating Coming off a low base, materially stronger earnings growth is expected for 2024. The share has materially outperformed it's peer group this week but remains muted over the long term. This gives the share room to advance over the medium. To re-iterate, my long term target is R220. Please scroll down for the previous posts. Previous Post: ABSA GROUP: Absolute & Relative Re-Rating Thursday 05 December 2024 (Time: 06:21) In March, below R145, Clients were alerted to an opportunity to accumulate, driven by the model reading. Yesterday, the share was the strongest performer amongst the financials. On an absolute basis, the share is trading at multi-week highs. On a relative basis, the share is looking to breach it's downward trend vs the JSE Top 40 Index. To me, it looks the like the start of a re-rating and the potential start of relative outperformance. Remember, it's been very cheap with an appealing valuation. The ratio chart is shown below: Previous Post: Absa Group: Relative Value Monday 25 November 2024 (Time Published: 06h28) Fundamentally undervalued + has not participated in the re-rating of South African equities. Whilst it is trading off the Q2 lows, the share remains in a multi-year consolidation phase and off it's all-time highs. Long Term Target = R220. View as of Thursday 21 November at 09h59. Previous Post: TRADER'S TOOLBOX: Absa's 3 Major Turning Points - Tuesday, 20 August 2024 The major turning points in the share were late March, mid June and early in August. These 2 longs and 1 short triggers helped traders position for the subsequent moves to take advantage of cash-flow generating opportunities. BUY/LONG Discussed in detail, along with the Tactical Trading Guide on Monday, 25 March. The charts below are also adjusted to include dividends. Short/Sell (Reading/Chart 1) Warning that a buy/long was unappealing. Short/Sell (Reading/Chart 2) Alerting to a 1 to 2 day/week short/sell setup. Buy/Long - Monitor For Bullish Reversal Opportunity V-Shaped reversal followed by massive gap up during yesterday's session (earnings release). Clients of Unum Capital are often alerted to key technical developments which include readings from the Tactical Trading Guide. This acts as a guide which helps to identify both opportunities and risk. To become a client, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011384 2923 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital