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  • BRENT CRUDE OIL Improving Price Action

    Analysis as of 01 January at 18h44 Commentary and further detail on the slide below: Previous Post: Strategy Alert: Brent Crude Oil Wednesday 13 November 2024 (Time: 15h42) Potentially Bullish: Inverse Hammer Candle Formation In Development. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • STANDARD BANK Printing Multi-Month Lows; Unwind From Medium Term Overbought Continues

    During late December, the share printed multi-month lows. Previous Post: STANDARD BANK 10-Month Trading Update Underwhelms / Unum Clients Cautioned Re: Reward-To-Risk Wednesday 04 December 2024 (Time: Pre-Market) On Monday, the group released it's trading update for the 10 months ended 21 October 2024. While earnings were higher, it may have missed market consensus expectations, with the share being sold off in early trade on Monday before recovering some of the early session losses. On 15 August, Unum Capital clients were cautioned against aggressive buy/long positions at or around the level at the time. The share trade only slightly higher and for the 3 1/2 months, has traded in a sideways range before reaching a multi-month low on Monday morning. The original note, cautioning new buys/longs, can be viewed here: https://www.unum.capital/post/standard-bank-trading-at-multi-month-highs-here-s-what-the-data-says-thursday-15-august-2024 Standard Bank was previously a buy/long idea on 18 April which saw a significant rally. The original buy idea (18 April) and caution (15 August) is time stamped on the updated chart below. SENS Voluntary trading update for the ten months to 31 October 2024 10M24 performance For the ten months to 31 October 2024 (10M24), Standard Bank Group's underlying operational and financial trends were robust and reflective of the continued momentum in the underlying franchise. Group headline earnings grew by low-to-mid single digits in South African Rand (ZAR) and by mid-teens on a constant currency basis in the 10M24 relative to the ten months to 31 October 2023 (10M23 or period on period). Currency devaluations in various countries in which the group operates on the African continent, together with, more recently, the stronger ZAR, continued to dilute the group's performance in ZAR. Previously, this impact was expected to moderate in the second half of the year, however this was not the case in the four months to 31 October 2024. Importantly, while the impact thereof is a headwind to reported revenue growth trends, it also favourably impacts reported operating expenses and credit impairment charges. Banking headline earnings also grew by low-to-mid single digits in ZAR and by mid-teens on a constant currency basis period on period. Balance sheet growth has been slower than expected due to larger-than-expected currency movements in Africa Regions, and net interest income growth slowed to low-to-mid single digits period on period. Non-interest revenue declined by low-to-mid single digits period on period as continued growth in fees and commissions was more than offset by a decline in trading revenue off a high base in 10M23. Cost growth was well contained, reflecting continued cost management discipline, and dampened by currency translation impacts. Revenue growth remained slightly ahead of cost growth. Credit impairments were lower period on period due to a slowdown in early arrears and lower inflows into non-performing loans in Personal and Private Banking as reported previously. The group's credit loss ratio for 10M24 remained in the top half of the group's through-the-cycle range of 70 to 100 basis points. Previous Post: STANDARD BANK: Caution To New Longs - Thursday, 15 August 2024 Ticker: SBK Real-Time: 15h50 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • S&P 500 INDEX Weakening In Line With Model Reading

    On 05 December research highlighted the overextended level of the index, sighting the risk of a medium term retracement. The index subsequently consolidated which was followed by a sharp sell-off, triggered by the announcement of an interest rate cut, which was seen as a so-called 'hawkish cut'. The index entered ultra short term oversold conditions, finding support on it's rising 75-day EMA, which was followed by a rebound. The current price action reflects a mixed bag, with a sightly bearish bias i.e. a tapering of the previous aggressive upward momentum into a neutral regime. Comment as of 30 December 2024 at 12h35. Previous Post: S&P 500 INDEX Risk of Medium Term Retracement Thursday 05 December 2024 (Time: 21h49) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • JSE RELATIVE SECTOR RATINGS Chemicals, Telecoms, PGMs & More

    Wednesday 11 December 2024 (Time: 14h20) This table considers the sector ratings relative to the JSE Top 40 Index Some points to note, which may be informative from a positioning perspective. Banks & Insurers weakening in the short term. Technology = Strong PGMs = weak but monitor the S/T for relative improvement Chemicals long term oversold, but becoming less so on the lower time frame Telecoms and Coal Miners improving on a relative basis. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • FX: AUD/USD Approaching Oversold Conditions + Trading At Swing Low

    Wednesday 11 December 2024 (Time: 09h73) Price Action Readings + Daily Chart Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • JSE Banks Are Overbought On A Relative Basis. Consider Rotating Out.

    JSE Banks Relative To JSE Top 40 Index Previous Post: Monday 02 December 2024 (Pre-Market) This chart is available to NON-CLIENTS of Unum Capital. Specifically, if you are: New to financial markets and looking to start your trading journey. An experienced trader, but looking to elevate your trading. Interested in an ACTIVE TRADING approach. Interested in a high quality, award-winning research. Interested in insights that informs and identifies both risks and opportunities. Should you you fit into any of the above categories, we would love a few minutes of your time to be able to further explain why you should consider Unum Capital your trading partner. To access, e-mail your name and contact details to   lester@unum.co.za    To open a trading account, e-mail   lester@unum.co.za    Key Features of Chart: Trading at the upper boundary of a multi-year rising channel Technical Regime: Medium term (Weekly Chart) = High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought RANKED & RECOGNIZED: Unum Research Attains 3rd Place In The 2024 Securities Broker Awards In September 2024, Unum Research was recognized for it's capabilities.  Among well-respected boutiques and ahead of household giants such as FNB and Nedbank, the unit attained 3rd place for the period under review. Commenting on the award, Analyst: Lester Davids remarked: "The award speaks to the high quality of output being recognized by our valued clients as well as the consistency of insights and actionable opportunities that has been delivered over the past 8 years." Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • CONFLUENT Inc. Earnings Surprises Create Tailwind For This Mid-Cap Software Stock

    + Positive/Improving Fundamentals + Constructive Technical Setup + Improving Analyst Sentiment Confluent, Inc. engages in creating a data infrastructure platform focused on data in motion. The firm provides application architecture engagement, multi data center, security and upgrade engagement, and Amazon web services cloud deployment services. Its products include Confluent Cloud and Confluent Platform. The company was founded by Edward Jay Kreps, Neha Narkhede, and Jun Rao on September 1, 2014, and is headquartered in Mountain View, CA. AI-Assisted Investment Insights Confluent's stock investment drivers can be broadly categorized into the following: Data Streaming Market Growth:  The increasing demand for real-time data processing and analytics across industries is a major tailwind for Confluent. As businesses strive to gain insights from data in motion, Confluent's platform becomes increasingly valuable.    Confluent's Competitive Advantage:  Confluent's platform, built on Apache Kafka, offers a robust and scalable solution for data streaming. Its strong brand recognition and large customer base provide a competitive edge.    Cloud Migration and Adoption:  The ongoing shift towards cloud computing creates opportunities for Confluent, as its platform can be deployed both on-premises and in the cloud. This flexibility appeals to a wide range of businesses.    Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) Integration:  Confluent's platform plays a crucial role in enabling AI and ML initiatives by providing real-time data feeds. As AI and ML adoption grows, so does the demand for Confluent's solutions.    Customer Success and Expansion:  Confluent's ability to retain existing customers and expand its relationships with them is a key driver of its revenue growth. Financial Performance and Profitability:  Confluent's ability to deliver consistent revenue growth and improve its profitability is closely watched by investors.    Industry Trends and Technological Advancements:  Confluent's ability to adapt to evolving industry trends and incorporate new technologies into its platform is crucial for its long-term success. Source: yahoo finance Source: Trading View Source: Trading View Source: Trading View

  • JSE Sectors Ratings

    Monday 09 December 2024 (Time: Pre-Market) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • WALT DISNEY Streaming Growth + Guidance Re-Ignites Momentum

    + Positive/Improving Fundamentals + Constructive Technical Setup + Improving Analyst Sentiment AI-Assisted Investment Insights Walt Disney's investment drivers can be broadly categorized into two major areas: Content Creation and Intellectual Property (IP): Strong IP Portfolio:  Disney owns some of the most valuable intellectual property in the world, including iconic characters, franchises, and stories. This IP serves as the foundation for its various businesses. Content Production:  Disney continues to produce high-quality content across various platforms, including movies, television shows, and streaming content. This ensures a constant flow of new and engaging material for its audience. Franchise Power:  Disney's ability to leverage its existing franchises through sequels, spin-offs, and merchandise generates significant revenue and maintains audience engagement. Diversified Business Model: Theme Parks and Resorts:  Disney's theme parks and resorts are major attractions worldwide, generating substantial revenue and offering unique experiences for visitors. Media Networks:  Disney's television networks, including ESPN and ABC, reach a vast audience and generate advertising revenue. Streaming Services:  Disney+ has become a major player in the streaming market, providing access to Disney's vast library of content and original productions. Consumer Products:  Disney's consumer products division generates revenue through licensing agreements, merchandise sales, and retail stores. Additional Factors: Technological Innovation:  Disney's ability to adapt to changing technologies and consumer preferences is crucial for its continued success. Global Expansion:  Expanding its presence in international markets provides new growth opportunities. Brand Loyalty:  Disney's strong brand loyalty among consumers ensures a consistent demand for its products and services. By effectively managing these investment drivers, Disney can continue to entertain and engage audiences worldwide, driving growth and profitability for the company. Source: yahoo finance Source: Trading View Source: Trading View Source: Trading View

  • ADIDAS Strong Performance (Q3) + Raised Guidance + Technical Momentum

    + Positive/Improving Fundamentals + Constructive Technical Setup + Improving Analyst Sentiment AI-Assisted Investment Insights Adidas's Q3 2024 performance was driven by a combination of factors, including: Retro Sneaker Revival:  The resurgence of iconic retro styles like the Samba and Gazelle fueled significant revenue growth. Strategic Product Focus:  Adidas strategically emphasized its heritage and iconic products, attracting new consumers and retaining existing fans. Strong Performance in Key Segments:  Both the Lifestyle and Performance segments experienced double-digit growth, indicating the effectiveness of Adidas's strategy.    Improved Gross Margins:  Gross margins increased by 2.0 percentage points to 51.3%, contributing to the company's profitability.    Operational Efficiency:  Adidas's focus on operational efficiency resulted in a substantial boost in operating profit, reaching €598 million.    Positive Currency Impact:  Currency-neutral revenues increased 10% compared to the prior year, while euro terms saw a 7% growth to €6.438 billion.    Overall, Adidas's Q3 results demonstrate the success of CEO Bjorn Gulden's turnaround strategy, which has revitalized the brand and positioned it for continued growth. Source: yahoo finance Source: Trading View Source: Trading View Source: Trading View ADIDAS PRESS RELEASE (15 October 2024).  adidas reports better-than-expected third quarter results and increases its full-year guidance. adidas today announced preliminary results for the third quarter of 2024. In Q3, currency-neutral revenues increased 10% versus the prior year. In euro terms, the company’s revenues grew 7% to € 6.438 billion (2023: € 5.999 billion). Excluding Yeezy sales in both years, currency-neutral revenues increased 14% during the quarter. The company’s gross margin increased 2.0 percentage points to 51.3% in Q3 (2023: 49.3%). The year-over-year increase of the underlying adidas gross margin was even stronger. The company’s third quarter operating profit increased to € 598 million (2023: € 409 million), including a contribution of around € 50 million from the sale of parts of the remaining Yeezy inventory. The company has increased its full-year guidance to reflect the better-than-expected performance during the quarter and the current brand momentum. adidas now expects currency-neutral revenues to increase at a rate of around 10% in 2024 (previously: increase at a high-single-digit rate). The company’s operating profit is now expected to reach a level of around € 1.2 billion (previously: to reach a level of around € 1.0 billion). Within its guidance, the company assumes the sale of the remaining Yeezy inventory during the remainder of the year to occur on average at cost. This would result in additional sales of around € 50 million and no further profit contribution in the fourth quarter. REUTERS. Adidas raises 2024 guidance again, citing good brand momentum.

  • CHINESE EQUITIES Rally On Ramped-Up Stimulus. ASHR ETF +7%

    This evening, 9 out of the top 10 ETF performers are China-related. Well done to clients who may have capitalized on the initial view. To trade global instruments, you will need an offshore account. To get started, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk on E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923 Monday 09 December 2024 (Time: 21h41 S/Africa / U.S Trading Session) Previous Post (Friday 06 December 2024 at 10h16 South African Time / Pre-Market U.S. Trading Session): CHINESE EQUITIES Momentum Is Re-Emerging. Consider This ETF To Gain Exposure Investing in Chinese equities comes with a higher level of risk. On this basis, a smaller-than-average allocation should be considered within a larger diversified portfolio. To gain exposure, the Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF could be considered. Technical Takeaway The initial price surge, followed by a consolidation. This has resulted in the development of a pennant formation where the price is looking to re-ignite it's upward price momentum. To trade global instruments, you will need an offshore account. To get started, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital Noted Added: Friday 06 December 2024 at 10h16 (South African Time)

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