Search this site

The U.S. election is shaping up to present two very different policy paths, with each candidate proposing changes that will influence various sectors and investor sentiment. Let’s examine the core areas where their plans diverge and what these could mean for the U.S. market. Key Policy Directions and Expected Market Effects Tax Policies : Trump : Aims to cut taxes, assuming these will boost growth while supplementing revenues through fees on international trade. These changes could increase consumer spending, with potential gains for sectors like consumer goods and tech . However, lower tax revenue might bring concerns over the long-term fiscal balance, impacting bond markets . Harris : Plans to raise taxes on large corporations and high-income individuals while expanding credits for families. This could initially reduce earnings for finance and tech  firms but might uplift sectors such as housing and consumer staples  due to the boost in household income. Trade Strategy : Trump : Suggests significant fees on imported goods, including a particularly high charge on goods from China. This approach could increase costs for industries reliant on foreign goods, posing challenges for manufacturing, retail, and tech . However, it could benefit domestic-focused industries, such as heavy equipment, automotive, and energy . Harris : Prefers a more selective approach to trade policies, likely keeping certain existing fees but easing broad restrictions. This might alleviate pressure on U.S. companies dependent on global supply chains, benefiting consumer goods and technology  sectors. Energy Approach : Trump : Emphasises traditional energy production, supporting industries reliant on oil, gas, and coal. This direction could lead to gains for conventional energy and infrastructure  stocks while placing less emphasis on renewable growth. Harris : Promotes environmentally friendly energy and supports renewables, which could stimulate growth in solar, wind, and electric vehicle sectors. Her approach might lead to increased funding for sustainable energy development, supporting businesses focused on renewable infrastructure. Healthcare & Essential Goods : Trump : Generally, favours a less restrictive approach in this space, advocating for market-driven solutions. This stance may benefit pharma and biotech  companies, where regulatory burdens would likely remain light. Harris : Plans to limit costs for essential medications and to curb price increases in critical goods. Her policies may create pressure for pharma companies , while possibly benefiting health insurance providers if cheaper medication options contribute to reduced healthcare costs. Investment Takeaways Growth vs. Value : Trump’s pro-growth focus on traditional sectors like energy and industrials may favour value-oriented stocks, while Harris’s renewable and consumer-focused strategies might encourage investments in growth sectors like tech, consumer goods, and green energy . Sector Shifts : Trump’s approach could boost traditional industries, while Harris’s plan may favour sectors aligned with renewable energy and consumer protection. Investors should closely follow post-election policy shifts to gauge where to reallocate within the U.S. market.   With these contrasting approaches, the U.S. market could see varied opportunities and risks across sectors, underscoring the importance of staying informed and flexible as post-election policies begin to shape economic direction. If you would like to discuss how to position your portfolio to capitalise on these opportunities, get in touch with me at luke@unum.co.za and please refer to the disclaimer at https://unum.capital/research-disclaimer/ .

Yesterday (Thursday) I published research on US 10-YEAR BOND YIELDS, NASPERS, BID CORP, SAPPI, JSE SECTOR RATINGS, ASML, JSE TOP 40 INDEX, GOLD FIELDS (AND MORE). In case you may have missed it, you can read it here: https://unum.capital/blog/ Unum Research Attains 3rd Place In The 2024 Securities Broker Awards. Read More Here:   https://www.unum.capital/post/unum-research-awards COVERAGE: JSE Top 40 Index JSE Market Breadth U.S. Market Breadth Northam Platinum FirstRand Ltd Tiger Brands Sanlam Ltd Anheuser-Busch Inbev [Global Idea] BP Plc (LSE) [Global Idea Update] Entergy Corp - Target Reached +22% [Global Idea Update] Newmont Corp +10%, Then Stop-Loss Breached [Global Idea Update] Carvana Co - Target Exceeded +64% [Global Idea Update] NuScale Corp - Target Exceeded +83% Most Overbought/Oversold Strongest/Weakest Open To Close Today's Event Risk: U.S Non-Farm Payrolls JSE Top 40 | Massive downside follow-through from the bear flag structure discussed in Monday's pre-market report. The chart below is as of yesterday's close. The extract below (Top 40 chart and text) is from Monday's report 'The Sum of the Charts'. To access the full report, you need to be a client of Unum Capital. JSE Market Breadth: Broad-Based Weakness (data as of yesterday's close). U.S. Market Breadth - big sell-off in the U.S last night - confirmation of what I discussed last week, which I also re-iterated in my report on Monday. Northam Platinum (NPH) | Unwinding from overbought / broke the 8-day EMA / the 21-day EMA is vulnerable to a break therefore the 50-day EMA is in focus as a next best provisional support or re-entry buy range for an ultra short term rebound. Firstrand (FSR) | Broke the 21-week EMA / 50-week ema + 200-day SMA in focus as a next best provisional support or re-entry buy range for an ultra short term rebound. Tiger Brands (TBS) | Vulnerable to breaking the 50-day EMA to the downside. The 21-week EMA is a next best provisional support or re-entry buy range for an ultra short term rebound. Previously, I published a note, highlighting an opportunity at 19850c (it traded as high as R249). Sanlam (SLM) | Outside bar + vulnerable to a downside break of the 8/21-day EMA. Several attempts to clear r90 is failing. Also slightly extended vs the 50-week EMA at current levels (possible mean reversion?) Anheuser-Busch Inbev (ANH) - These are the price action probabilities for the according to the model. Know your time horizon. [Global Idea] BP Plc (LSE) - Yesterday morning, before the London Stock Exchange opened for trade, I once again ran more screens looking for global opportunities. BP plc was one of several names, with the model reading as follows: Yesterday, the share closed higher by 70bps, which is basically flat, however, do keep this on your radar on the buy/long side. [Global Idea Update] Entergy Corp - Target Reached +22% [Global Idea: Newmont Corp] - Stop-loss Breached. A good start to the idea (+10%) however, earnings was the catalyst for sharp sell-off later. [Global Idea: Carvana Co] - Target Exceeded - Suggested Entry at $152.90. Target was 40% higher at $215. Yesterday, the share reached a high of $251 which was 20% higher for the session. In total, the price advanced by 64% over the 6 weeks since the idea was published. [Global Idea] NuScale Corp +83% in less than 4 weeks. Nuclear as a theme has been hot, hot hot!! Strongest / Most Overbought (Daily Time Frame) Weakest / Most Oversold Most Aggressive Buying From Open To Close (Daily Time Frame) Most Aggressive Selling From Open To Close (Daily Time Frame) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Thursday 31 October 2024 Time Published: 12h58 Consider TLT (long) for exposure/to express a view. Potential for a bearish reversal i.e. bond buyers starting to enter. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Thursday 31 October 2024 Time Published: 12h40 Share Code: NPN Previous Post: 29 August Real-Time: 12h57 Ticker: NPN Previous Post (15 August 2024) On Tuesday evening, the Tactical Trading Guide warned traders not to chase/buy, but instead look for an overshoot with a tactical short/sell back to the 8-day EMA. The level between R3555 and R3580 is approximately where the 8, 21-EMA is situated. A re-test of this range could offer a buy/long re-entry for short term traders. (Monitor the Tencent price action for clues). Note: this is also the previous breakout level. Previous Post (Wednesday, 14 August 2024) Real-Time: 11h03 +12% Gain Off Tactical Trigger Previous Post The buy trigger on end of day Monday 01 July (also highlighted in real-time on telegram) saw a healthy short term bullish reversal with the price advancing by R161 or +4.6% to yesterday's high. Note yesterday's high was the declining 21-day exponential moving average which has always been a level into which short term traders look to reduce into. The price continues to trade around it's 8-day EMA, which has started to lose downside momentum and which has previously acted a resistance on the recent downward trend. Broadly, the candle structure remains mixed, with a slightly bearish bias. I will continue to seek tradeable opportunities should the model or manual review indicate. Note: The share has unwound significantly from my sell/reduce view on 14 May (peaked two days later) and now trades within the initial accumulation range. The timestamped chart is shown below: Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Thursday 31 October 2024 Time Published: 09h24 Previous Bull Target Reached - Now Displaying Bearish Price Action Flash Notes Are Published Here >> https://www.unum.capital/post/flash-notes-november-2024 << Previous Post: Take Profit Into Strength (Tuesday, 10 September 2024) Real-Time: 15h32 Ticker: SAP Approaching Reversal Target Short Term Traders, Bank/Take Profit Into Strength SAP has given traders two opportunities to buy, reaching and rebounding off the buy range on 2x occasions. The move is also in line with the Tactical Trading Guide, which looked for a small rebound from oversold conditions. Previous Post Pre-Market: 14 August Pre-Market Previous Post 06 August - Real-Time: 16h09 Amidst the short term sell-off, here's what the data says. (Do note, event risk in the form of earnings loom). Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Thursday 31 October 2024 Time Published: 09h56 Ticker: BID Here's What The Model Says Previous Post: BID CORP (BID): Full Target Reached - Wednesday, 31 July 2024 Real-Time: 15h41 The idea was the accumulate on prints below R422. The stop-loss was briefly breached, before a further consolidation and bullish reversal. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Thursday, 31 October 2024 Time Published: 09h07 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Thursday 31 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market Share: ASML Holding Exchange: Euronext Ticker: ASML Sector: Semiconductors Tactical Trading Guide 3x Time Frame Reading: Daily Price Chart Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Thursday 31 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market At the beginning of this week, I discussed the potential formation of a bear flag structure, that is vulnerable to triggering upon a breached of the incline support which extends back to the 08 and 09 October swing lows. On Tuesday we saw some early weakness while yesterday saw a breached of the upward trend. the index closed off the lows of the day, but still near the range lows which extended back to Friday 18 October. Here, breaching horizontal support of 78530 could mark the start of a further downside move and an acceleration of the bear flag structure. I am however mindful that a change of character is possible and would watch if weakness below the break is bought - say, a false breakdown? Bottom line: I remain open-minded. This below slide was included in my report, "The Sum of the Charts" dated Monday, 28 October 2024. To access the report, email lester@unum.co.za Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Thursday 31 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market If you are running a systematic model, you don't have to do exactly what the model tells you what to do. That's my approach. Part machine driven insights, part human judgement. We do however want to TAKE NOTE of what the price action tells us. Sometimes there's a WARNING. Sometimes there's an OPPORTUNITY. Sometimes there's just information that suggests that we have to WAIT. Take a look at yesterday's readings on Sibanye and Amplats. After massive moves, isn't it normal for these prices to take a breather? That's what model said before yesterday's open. DON'T CHASE (DON'T BUY AGGRESSIVELY AT THESE LEVELS) - that was the message. This data helps me provide better insights so that you can avoid traps and take advantage of opportunities. AMS - here's how it closed yesterday: And....this was the pre-market reading, as highlighted in yesterday's note. SSW - here's how it closed yesterday: And....this was the pre-market reading, as highlighted in yesterday's note. Previous Post Wednesday 30 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market ABOUT THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE: Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Thursday 31 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market The 3rd highest day/level over the short term was on Monday 21 October, followed by Tuesday 22nd and then a print of 33398c on Wednesday, the 23rd. I'd like to illustrate how, as a trader, you are able to use the automated data to assess reward-to-risk and uncover opportunities. I'm not here to pick the top (or bottom) but to rather determine if the model was giving us the right message AROUND the right time. On Monday 21 October, the short term (1 to 10 day) reading was that the share was 'extremely overbought and that traders should monitor for early signs of a weakness for a pullback to the 8-day EMA. On the day (21/10) the share also close in overbought territory as per the Relative Strength Index (RSI). For the medium term (2 to 4 weeks) and long term (5 to 8 weeks), no readings were available. Well done to traders who capitalized on the opportunities to either reduce into strength or short/sell at the time. For now, the 21-day EMA is a next best provisional level of interest for new short term buy/long positions. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Thursday 31 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market DOMINANT BUYING FROM OPEN TO CLOSE (DAILY) DOMINANT SELLING FROM OPEN TO CLOSE (DAILY) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital